In Contention

Category: Box Office

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Hey, remember the 80s?

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    A thousand apologies for being off the grid for a little over a week. I was in Germany for a screening of my film and was happily without internet or phone for most of the trip. Sadly, I returned to the news that “Shrek Forever After” was still the number one movie in the States. Honestly, I can’t leave you people alone for a minute.

    Last week’s slate was always going to be a crop of modest performers but this week is a little different. Hollywood double dips into the 80s nostalgia well and at least one of the films carries a very high price tag that will need some juice to be recouped.

    But first let’s talk about “The Karate Kid.” Some ultra nerds have been complaining that it’s false advertising because Jackie Chan actually teaches Kung Fu this time, but if that was really an issue then the original would have been called “The Karate Man,” since I’m pretty sure Ralph Macchio was 35 when it came out. Regardless, Sony is hoping to gain kids with the PG rating and pre-teen protagonist, teens with the martial arts and Jackie Chan, and finally adults with nostalgia. Test screenings went extremely well (so says Sony) and I think the film could surprise with a $30 million weekend.

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  • MONDAY CENTS: Uh-oh

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The number one movie over the long Memorial Day weekend is “Shrek Forever After” with $55.7 million. That’s the lowest amount for a chart-topping film over Memorial Day since “Casper” in 1995. While Paramount will be delighted to hold on to the top spot and claim a morale boosting 39% dip for the jolly green giant, it won’t mask the fact that this weekend was kind of a disaster for studios and theater owners.

    Dropping 39% over the three days and only 21% is a sorely needed win for “Shrek Forever After.” That gives it much better legs than the last installment and saves it from recording an embarrassing total. When it’s all said and done, it will still be the lowest grossing film in the franchise, but it will handily pass “How to Train Your Dragon” at least.

    The runner-up spot is a toss up. “Sex and the City 2” claimed it on the three day weekend, but estimates have “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” overtaking it for the four day. But let’s start with the lovely ladies. Carrie Bradshaw and company started on Thursday with $14.3 million, as previously reported. For a Thursday, that was fine as long as the Friday saw a significant uptick. But it didn’t.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Disrespect the Middle East edition

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    There’s a mild controversy every time a “Sex and the City” movie comes out where it is mercilessly trashed for existing by male critics who, the accusation goes, often let comparable trash starring men get off easy. Well, you all know that I can not be labeled one who lets any trash off easy so I have free reign to say that anyone who looks up to the women in this movie is probably a terrible person and I weep for humanity that this will be another big hit for Warner Bros.

    “Sex and the City 2” has already opened and earned $14.2 million yesterday. Is that good? Yes. Is it great? No. The first film made $29.6 million on its opening day, albeit being a regular Friday and then dropped drastically to record a weekend tally of $63.2 million. As far as opening days being front-loaded in a weekend, “Sex and the City” is one of the top 15 worst offenders ever and sequels tend to be even worse. But since it’s just a Thursday, no need to panic yet.

    I suspect the film will pick up slightly to around $18 million on Friday and then record around $45 million for the weekend, before adding another cool $8 or $9 million on Monday. All told that will be close to $70 million in five days and set the film up for a profitable run. For some reason, the original was enormous overseas and that should again be the case. But seriously ladies, have some self respect and put your considerable weight (bad choice of word?) as a consumer behind something that doesn’t make you look like a worthless idiot.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Pain in the ‘Shrek’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    We did it guys! Collectively, we have decided that the Shrek property, after three dreadful installments, is no longer an untouchable juggernaut, but just a regular old extremely profitable movie. We have also decided that summer 2010 is going to give movie theater owners a lot of headaches, for which the only prescription is to make popcorn $17 and sell ads on the back of the chairs in front of you. Enjoy!

    Let’s clarify. “Shrek Forever After” is the number one movie at the box office with $71.3 million, instantly becoming the most pathetic film ever to make $70 million in three days. Why? Maybe because “Ice Age: The Meltdown” can debut with $82.6 million in March? But mostly because “Shrek the Third” debuted with $140.5 million in 2007. When you factor in the fact that “Shrek Forever After” probably earned most of its coin from inflated 3D prices, you are looking at less than half the tickets sold from one film to the next. That’s an almost unprecedented exodus for an established franchise like this.

    General fatigue with the characters and the universe is the obvious explanation, but that still only takes you so far. We’re three weeks in now and summer 2010 is posting up consistently disappointing numbers. Granted, “Iron Man 2” and “Robin Hood” came in right around expectations, but the lack of an encouraging or surprising box office performer so far this summer is cause for concern.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Is it ogre yet?

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    That fat, green face to the right is the most successful animated character in the history of film. You guys have made him an icon of cinema greater than Don Corleone, Marty McFly and Jack Sparrow as far as box office receipts are concerned. Whatever hilarious adventure he undertakes with his wise-cracking donkey sidekick, you are game for. His latest batch of hijinks comes with the laziest pun title ever and a general feeling of distaste from the third installment.

    “Shrek Forever After” is the big debut this week and will easily win the weekend. There hasn’t been a big family film released in eight weeks (Sorry Brendan Fraser) and the market is ripe for a new blockbuster. The thing is opening in every theater across the country with 3D prices ballooning up to $20 in some places. All the ingredients are there for the film to best the $140.5 million opening of “Shrek the Third.” Except that people generally thought “Shrek the Third” was terrible. How these discerning viewers found anything different at all from film to film in this series is beyond me, but I gave up after the wretched first so what do I know?

    Any time a franchise entry disappoints, the next film takes a hit and so I’m thinking that “Shrek Forever After” will hover around the $100 million mark for the weekend. Could do $95 million or could do $105 million, but nowhere near that $140.5 million. Regardless, the film will make oodles of money for DreamWorks and Mike Myers will continue to confuse doing a Scottish accent for funny in more films.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Taking ‘Hood’ stock

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott helped steal $37.1 million from the poor on behalf of the rich as “Robin Hood” enters the chart in second place this week. The humorless duo courted the older adult audience, and in that respect, this is a solid enough debut. Not quite up to the snuff of “Gladiator,” but a better start than the $22.7 million summer 2005 launch of Crowe’s “Cinderella Man,” a film which is often cited as the one that killed big budget adult dramas being released in the heart of summer.

    Where the film goes from here is up to the word of mouth which, from what I can gather, is mediocre. It’ll need a healthy push to reach $100 million, but I think we’re looking at another “Public Enemies” situation where the film stalls out just under the mark around $95 million. But before you bring Universal some hankies to cry in, you can expect that number to be almost tripled in overseas territories. Crowe lives to leave another interview!

    So that means that “Iron Man 2” is the number one film again this week. Good job Iron Man. The comic book superhero dropped a perilous 59% and continues to do the absolute bare minimum to avoid being called a disappointment. These grosses are perfunctory and little else and it’s sad that we’ve reached a point that a possible $350 million finish is blasé. Again, the film has already topped the $200 million mark overseas as well so this is a very profitable venture for Marvel. The third film is already in pre-production and Martin Lawrence has entered negotiations to replace Don Cheadle.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Robin’ of schlocksley

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Fresh off a tepid debut at Cannes, Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe have unleashed their fifth collaboration upon the world. Forget Scorsese and DiCaprio, these guys are taking actor-director bromance to another level. Together, they’ve given us Oscar winning hits (“Gladiator”), non-Oscar winning hits (“American Gangster”) and non-Oscar winning non-hits (“A Good Year” and “Body of Lies”). Which category will “Robin Hood” fall under?

    The one comparison everybody can’t stop making is to “Gladiator” so let’s start there. The sword and sandals epic also launched in May, of 2000, and slashed up a $51.4 million debut. That was at the very beginning of May with no other summer movies out in competition it should be noted. Both director and star have become much more prolific and popular since then so maybe we should assume that “Robin Hood” could do a little better.

    Not so fast! Medieval/historical epics have had a torrid last few years at the box office. Scott’s own “Kingdom of Heaven” was supposed to kick off the 2006 summer season with a bang but only managed a $24.4 million debut and $58.8 million finish. Oliver Stone gave it the old college try with “Alexander” and found $17.5 million to start en route to a $43.9 million total. Granted, people hated that thing.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: The ‘Iron’ is still hot

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    “Iron Man 2” landed with a softer than expected $133.6 million to easily win the weekend. Now, is it even possible for $133.6 million to ever be disappointing? That’s the ninth biggest opening weekend of all time for crying out loud. Plus the film has already racked up more than $300 million worldwide so there is no danger of it not being extremely profitable for Paramount. Still, I think this just about the bare minimum it could have possibly made without raising some eyebrows. The original film opened on the same week two years ago to $109.2 million, which at the time made it the third biggest debut ever for a non-sequel.

    Being as popular as it was, a bigger debut for the sequel was an absolute requirement. Films in the “Pirates of the Caribbean” and “Shrek” franchises took enormous leaps from the debuts of their first film to second, but to be fair, those original films both opened with much more modest numbers than the first “Iron Man.” With “Spider-Man 3” proving that you can open in the beginning of May and earn more than $150 million without breaking a sweat, there’s really no reason why “Iron Man 2” shouldn’t have done the same.

    There’s certainly no competition. They brought back all the ingredients that made the first film likable (except no one will mind if we replace the black guy, right?). Some might be quick to say the lack of 3D hurt it, but that’s nonsense. Whatever the case, I’d now say that surpassing the $352.6 million of the original is not a foregone conclusion and ending the summer as the number one film is also unlikely. Your move, “Twilight!”

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Babies’!

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The babies are finally here guys! You’ve oohed and ahhed at penguins and oceans and Michael Moore, but this documentary finally gives you the chance to ooh and ahh at humans. Specifically, little ones. There’s also a silly sounding movie about a man who wears a suit made of armor, but it’s not even set in medieval times. He also fights some Russian villain, but it’s not even set in Cold War times.

    Most importantly, it’s officially summer according to Hollywood! Go to the beach, confess your love to your crush and cash in those time shares people!

    “Iron Man 2” is opening in 4,380 theaters today. That’s the biggest number for a debuting film in history. The first film in the franchise kicked off the 2008 summer season with a $109.2 million debut, en route to a fantastic $352.6 million total, earning more than supposed-summer titan “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” in the process. As far as sequels go, you can add as many stars, villains, explosions and cameos that you want but the most potent weapon in your arsenal will always be the popularity of the original, and “Iron Man” was extremely popular. An improved debut figure is a virtual certainty but the all time record of $175.4 million for “The Dark Knight” is probably safe.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Steady Krueger

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    26 years ago, “A Nightmare on Elm Street” opened to $2.9 million on 165 screens and enjoyed healthy word of mouth to reach $55.5 million total, putting Wes Craven and New Line Cinema on the map in the process. Now New Line is owned by Warner Bros. and Wes Craven is back to milking a different old cash cow, but Freddy Krueger has made his way back to the silver screen. Jackie Earle Haley takes over for Robert Englund and audiences showed enough interest to cough up $32.2 million to check it out.

    That’s better than the $29.2 million of “Halloween,” but not quite as good as the $35.5 million of “The Texas Chainsaw Massacre.” Word of mouth is almost guaranteed to be poisonous and it may as well not exist when “Iron Man 2” opens next week so I’d consider it a success if the film can make $60 million total. That should still be profitable for Warner Bros. and ensure at least six or seven sequels.

    The only other new release was “Furry Vengeance,” which took fifth place and $6.5 million. It’s too depressing to even dedicate a few minutes trying thinking of a joke for this movie. I actually think “Cruel Intentions” and “Just Friends” are better than they should be so it’s a shame to see Roger Kumble fall so far. He was probably my favorite hack director, but now he’s lost me.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Your worst ‘Nightmare’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The summer movie season doesn’t officially start until next weekend, but Warner Bros. aims to get a jump on things by releasing their high profile horror remake, “A Nightmare on Elm Street” before the storm. By all accounts, it should work, as horror audiences have proven time and again that they’ll fork over their money to see any movie they previously liked redone with slightly darker lighting, slightly less imagination and infinitely more budget money.

    I once thought that this particular remake was doomed because unlike the Jason or Halloween franchises, the iconic central character was tied to one actor and fickle audiences might not respond to any recasting. Of course, this was ridiculous thinking on my part and this film will be bigger than either of those other reboots. At least on opening weekend. “Friday the 13th” made $41.4 million on its opening weekend last year, with the help of Monday being a holiday and I think we can look for something similar here. And hundreds of lazy hipsters who already own striped red sweaters have locked down their Halloween costumes.

    I think the next horror flick to get a remake should be “April Fool’s Day.” That thing scared the crap out of me when I was a kid. Or “The Peanut Butter Solution,” which isn’t a horror film but something that still haunts me to this day. His hair just grows and grows!

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: For real this time, ‘Dragon’ ‘Back-Up’ to #1

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    No photo finishes and no Monday recounts needed. “How to Train Your Dragon” has definitely topped the chart this weekend, four weeks after debuting there. The last time a film leapt back up to number one after a three week hiatus was “The Passion of the Christ,” which had the help of Easter weekend to do it. It is, quite simply, a feat that isn’t possible in today’s box office climate and Paramount should be congratulated for their efforts. The film dropped a tiny 24% to $15.0 million and is well on course to pass the $200 million mark that “Monsters vs. Aliens” couldn’t hit last year. It’s also the lowest gross for a number one film since September.

    Jennifer Lopez proved she still has some of the goods by lifting “The Back-Up Plan” to second place and $12.3 million. That’s already more than “Extraordinary Measures” made total and gives CBS Films reason to keep their doors open for a few more months. I have no idea why this film did this well except that there hasn’t been an old fashioned romantic comedy since “Valentine’s Day.” I’m still also not sure why there are even hijinks or complications in this plot. The guy falls in love with her… but she’s pregnant! So?

    “The Losers” became a self-fulfilling prophecy for Warner Bros., entering the chart at number four with $9.6 million. To give you some perspective, some terrible movie called “The Marine” starring a wrestler opened to $8.3 million a few years ago. That’s the calibre of performance we’re talking about. The studio might have had better luck naming the film what it actually is, “The Cocky Douchebags.”

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: A bunch of ‘Losers’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Jennifer Lopez hasn’t been on screen since “El Cantante” in 2007 and hasn’t toplined a romantic comedy since “Monster-in-Law” in 2005. That’s a long, five year gap and it’s no surprise that J. Lo is returning to the only genre that has brought her success to make a comeback. Unless you count “Anaconda,” which I don’t, because obviously, the real star of that movie was Owen Wilson.

    But now she’s back with “The Back Up Plan,” a hilarious comedy about first dates and due dates. And kooky lesbians having natural birth parties and playing bongos. Lopez will get no help courting audiences from her male co-star, who is completely unknown to anyone who isn’t an enormous fan of “Whiteout” or “The Invisible.”

    She is getting a lot of help from CBS Films, who are promoting the living piss out of the movie, despite seeing no return for similar efforts with “Extraordinary Measures.” The trailers are weak, the premise is ridiculous and the leading actress is on the decline. So why do I get a horrible feeling that this will actually do alright? The market is a wasteland at the moment and romantic comedies are nowhere to be found so I think this one may walk away with $11 million or so.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: New releases ‘Dragon’ behind

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Internet nerds once again failed to make their presence known at the multiplex as “Kick Ass” surrendered to the runner-up spot on a relatively weak frame. As significant as online and fanboy buzz can be, time and again it has led to disappointing debuts more than bank-breaking grosses. “Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow,” “Grindhouse,” and “Snakes on a Plane” are just a few of the recent examples. If it wasn’t for the success of “Sin City” and “300,” Hollywood would probably disregard the internet all together.

    But let’s start at the top. “How to Train Your Dragon” becomes the first film since “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” to return to the summit of the box office after a hiatus. A slim drop of 20% earned the animated comedy $20.0 million and ups the cume to $158.6 million after four weeks. The $229.8 million it would need to become the highest grossing non-“Shrek” film for DreamWorks Animation is not out of the question, although still a bit unlikely.

    “Kick Ass” debuts with $19.8 million and will still end up profitable for Lionsgate and the filmmakers, but reiterates the ceiling for R-rated comic book adaptations. Coincidentally, the debut is almost identical to another R-rated action flick that Lionsgate bought after fanboys went nuts at preview footage- “Rambo.” It may have suffered from some younger kids buying tickets to “Dragon” and sneaking in, but it may have also suffered from the amount of people who get boners thinking about pre-teen girls with guns being significantly lower than expected.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Ass’ vs. crass

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Ever since it unveiled footage at Comic-Con last year, fanboys and internet hounds have been frothing at the mouth for Matthew Vaughn’s “Kick Ass” and now it has finally arrived. Internet buzz is deafening, but also misleading as it’s never quite clear whether we are looking at a “300” or a “Snakes on a Plane.” Lionsgate doesn’t have a whole lot at stake, picking up distribution rights after the film was nearly complete and only really needs to recoup their marketing costs, which still seem to be a pretty penny.

    The R-rating and the lack of a huge studio behind it limits the potential, as does the fact that it celebrates children inflicting violence. Of course that’s also the very thing that makes it so appealing to the target audience. So if you think that above photo is awesome and totally subversive, then you’ve probably already bought your ticket. I think there will be roughly $23 million worth of you.

    Fresh off of remaking Eric Rohmer, Chris Rock takes on Frank Oz. That transition is only natural. “Death at a Funeral” only came out two and a half years ago, but that version didn’t have bloated Luke Wilson or bloated Martin Lawrence. For those that do need a sense of continuity, a non-bloated Peter Dinklage returns.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Date’ and ‘Titans’ clash

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Every studio but Fox is reporting that “Clash of the Titans” won the box office this weekend, but Rupert Murdoch and co. insist it was, in fact, “Date Night.” Final results won’t be unveiled until tomorrow, but for now, we have to take their word for it. And if Rupert Murdoch’s word isn’t valuable, I don’t know what is.

    So, “Date Night” is number one with $27.1 million smackers. As I mentioned on Friday, that’s below the $29.9 million of “Mean Girls,” but better than the $18.4 million debut of “Baby Mama,” both of which also opened in April. Lesson here is that Lindsay Lohan circa 2004 or Steve Carell > Amy Poehler and Dax Shepherd. I don’t see how Fox can not be disappointed with this figure. There was no other new films opening, “Clash of the Titans” was always going to capsize, and “Obsessed” opened with $29.2 million last April. Raise your hand if you even remember “Obsessed?”

    Reviewers weren’t great but it’s word of mouth that counts here and I’m not sure that was so great either. As an action/comedy hybrid, it doesn’t help that next week sees the release of an action film and a comedy so it could be a quick exit to DVD for “Date Night,” where couples won’t actually need to make one to see it.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Save the ‘Date’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The one and only new studio release this weekend is “Date Night” from Fox. The film stars Steve Carell and Tina Fey, who both have legions of fans from their Thursday night NBC television shows, and a number of decent box office hits under their belt as well. Still, it’s always a bit of a risk asking audiences to pay $10 for a pairing that they more or less see every week at home for free. Granted, here they are together, but there needs to be a little more to it. The concept here is standard paper-thin studio comedy fare and I’m a little surprised at the way this has been marketed.

    Action/comedies/romances can really strike a chord with audiences of all ages, as seen with Fox’s own “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” but the studio seems to be content purely selling this as a comedy. The posters are a snooze and the trailers only half-heartedly advertise the amazing supporting cast, which includes Mark Wahlberg, James Franco and Mila Kunis.

    But again, the posters only want you to know that Steve Carell and Tina Fey are in a movie together and you should see it. I can’t help but see missed opportunity all over this thing and a $30 million debut is about the best it can hope for. $25 million might be more like the final result though, which wouldn’t even match the $29.9 million April 2004 debut of “Mean Girls.” Incidentally, if you want to see a date movie but think Shawn Levy is an artistic void, check out “Luke and Brie Are on a First Date,” now streaming for free on Babelgum. And that’s the last plug I’ll ever do, I swear.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Cash of the ‘Titans’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Alright. “Clash of the Titans” is the number one film at the box office with a weekend take of $61.4 million. Is that a tally worthy of the Gods? Simply put, in my opinion, no. Let’s set aside the 3D for a second and just pretend that isn’t a factor. Three years ago, “300” was able to debut with $78.4 million in the wastelands of March with arguably less recognizable source material and no recognizable star power. On this very same weekend last year, “Fast & Furious” opened to $72.4 million, setting a new record for the month of April and proving that huge grosses can come on any weekend in any month.

    The budget on “Titans” was huge and Warner Bros. spent a small fortune hastily adding 3D at the last minute to try and soullessly suck out a few more bucks. In the shortest of short term, this may have worked, but the word of mouth has been atrocious and a lot of it has to do with the 3D so I expect this to drop like a rock and barely finish around $125 million. With overseas markets, that’ll be enough and yet another lifeless remake earns its stripes thanks to you (if you saw it).

    Far more impressive, is the $30.2 million start of “Why Did I Get Married Too?” Tyler Perry’s movies have been the height of consistency, with his Madea titles earning $30 million plus and his Madea-less dramedies earning in the low $20 million range. Now he’s bucked the trend and proved that he doesn’t need a fat suit to register huge numbers. Seriously, there’s nothing harder than opening a drama about adults to $30 million. And that is why Lionsgate is changing their name to Tyler Perry’s Lionsgate.

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