OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — November 17, 2008

NUTSHELL: Only four movies left to go this year as all the question marks are finally becoming periods. For the most part everything has pretty much kept still, while the Best Picture landscape is suddenly becoming clearer (unless one of the unknowns is a sudden shocker). The supporting categories remain flimsy for the most part, with ranking arbitrary and any number of slots up for grabs, while a concerted push for “Gomorrah” could give it a head of steam in the adapted screenplay category. Even with his life threatened, Roberto Saviano is out here working it for the film. Only in an Oscar race.

Column: “Getting to know you”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
2 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
3 “Milk”
Focus Features
up
4 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
down
5 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
6 “The Dark Knight”
Warner Bros. Pictures
7 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
up
8 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
up
9 “Gran Torino”
Warner Bros. Pictures
down
10 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage

DIRECTING
1 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
2 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
3 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
4 Christopher Nolan
“The Dark Knight”
5 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
6 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
down
7 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
up
8 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
up
9 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino” (or “Changeling”)
down
10 Edward Zwick
“Defiance”

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Sean Penn
“Milk”
2 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
3 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
4 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
5 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
6 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
7 Josh Brolin
“W.”
8 Benicio Del Toro
“Che”
9 Richard Jenkins
“The Visitor”
10 Dustin Hoffman
“Last Chance Harvey”

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”
2 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
3 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
up
4 Kristin Scott Thomas
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
down
5 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
down
6 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
7 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
8 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
9 Kate Beckinsale
“Nothing But the Truth”
NEW
10 Michelle Williams
“Wendy and Lucy”

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
3 Dev Patel
“Slumdog Millionaire”
up
4 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
down
5 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
6 Ralph Fiennes
“The Reader” (or “The Duchess”)
7 Eddie Marsan
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
8 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
9 Bill Irwin
“Rachel Getting Married”
10 Liev Schrieber
“Defiance”

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
up
4 Rosemarie DeWitt
“Rachel Getting Married”
5 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
down
6 Kate Winslet
“The Reader”
7 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
8 Hiam Abbas
“The Visitor”
9 Freida Pinto
“Slumdog Millionaire”
10 Elsa Zylberstein
“I’ve Loved You So Long”

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
3 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the short story by Richard Yates
4 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
5 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
6 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
7 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
8 “Gomorrah”
Written by Maurizio Braucci, Ugo Chiti, Gianni Di Gregorio, Matteo Garrone, Massimo Gaudiso, Roberto Saviano
Based on the book by Roberto Saviano
up
9 “The Class”
Written by François Bégaudeau, Robin Campillo, Laurent Cantet
Based on the book by François Bégaudeau
down
10 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
2 “Rachel Getting Married”
Written by Jenny Lumet
3 “The Visitor”
Written by Thomas McCarthy
4 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
5 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
6 “Gran Torino”
Written by Nick Schenk
7 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann
9 “The Wrestler”
Written by Robert Siegel
up
8 “Last Chance Harvey”
Written by Joel Hopkins
down
10 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
4 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
5 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
6 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
7 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
9 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
10 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures