OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — February 23, 2009 (YEAR IN ADVANCE)

NUTSHELL: It goes without saying, don’t take anything you see on this page to the bank. I’m banking on Clint Eastwood’s Nelson Mandela film to be a big player next year, and though The Weinstein Company’s “Nine” is close behind, I have some personal questions about a film’s Oscar hopes within a studio struggling to put together the funds for last year’s Oscar buy, but hey, we’ll balance the books after we get that nomination! Fox Searchlight is always in the game, so presitge pic “Amelia” seems to be the best bet from here, while Focus Features, also a savvy Oscar studio, has Ang Lee’s latest to work with. I’m sticking my neck out for Paramount’s “Shutter Island” over Universal’s “Public Enemies” for now, but either period piece could register.

Column: “Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project”
Warner Bros. Pictures		 NEW
2 “Nine”
The Weinstein Company		 NEW
3 “Taking Woodstock”
Focus Features		 NEW
4 “Amelia”
Fox Searchlight Pictures		 NEW
5 “Shutter Island”
Paramount Pictures		 NEW
6 “Public Enemies”
Universal Pictures		 NEW
7 “Chéri”
Miramax Films		 NEW
8 “The Informant”
Warner Bros. Pictures		 NEW
9 “The Boat That Rocked”
Universal Pictures		 NEW
10 “The Hurt Locker”
Summit Entertainment		 NEW

DIRECTING
1 Clint Eastwood
“Untitled Nelson Mandela Project”		 NEW
2 Rob Marshall
“Nine”		 NEW
3 Ang Lee
“Taking Woodstock”		 NEW
4 Martin Scorsese
“Shuter Island”		 NEW
5 Kathryn Bigelow
“The Hurt Locker”		 NEW
6 Michael Mann
“Public Enemies”		 NEW
7 Mira Nair
“Amelia”		 NEW
8 Stephen Frears
“Chéri”		 NEW
9 Steven Soderbergh
“The Informant” 		NEW
10 Richard Curtis
“The Boat That Rocked”		 NEW

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Morgan Freeman
“Untitled Nelson Mandela Prjoect”		 NEW
2 Daniel Day-Lewis
“Nine”		 NEW
3 Matt Damon
“The Informant” (or “Green Zone”)		 NEW
4 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Shutter Island”		 NEW
5 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“The Boat That Rocked”		 NEW
6 Johnny Depp
“Public Enemies” 		NEW
7 George Clooney
“Up in the Air” (or “Men Who Stare at Goats”)		 NEW
8 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road”		 NEW
9 Demitri Martin
“Taking Woodstock”		 NEW
10 Javier Bardem
“Biutiful”		 NEW

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Michelle Pfeiffer
“Chéri”		 NEW
2 Carey Mulligan
“An Education”		 NEW
3 Hilary Swank
“Amelia”		 NEW
4 Penélope Cruz
“Broken Embraces”		 NEW
5 Saoirse Ronan
“The Lovely Bones” 		NEW
6 Helen Mirren
“The Tempest” (or “Love Ranch”)		 NEW
7 Gabourey Sidibe
“Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”		 NEW
8 Audrey Tatou
“Coco avant Chanel”		 NEW
9 Emma Thompson
“The Boat That Rocked”		 NEW
10 Maya Rudolph
“Away We Go”		 NEW

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Matt Damon
“Untitled Nelson Mandela Project”		 NEW
2 Richard Kind
“A Serious Man”		 NEW
3 Billy Crudup
“Public Enemies”		 NEW
4 Mark Ruffalo
“Shutter Island”		 NEW
5 Ewan McGregor
“Amelia”		 NEW
6 Christian Bale
“Public Enemies”		 NEW
7 Alfred Molina
“An Education”		 NEW
8 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”		 NEW
9 Kodi Scott-McPhee
“The Road”		 NEW
10 Jonathan Groff
“Taking Woodstock”		 NEW

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Mo’nique
“Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”		 NEW
2 Michelle Williams
“Shutter Island”		 NEW
3 Penélope Cruz
“Nine”		 NEW
4 Sophia Loren
“Nine” 		NEW
5 Imelda Staunton
“Taking Woodstock”		 NEW
6 Marion Cotillard
“Nine” (or “Public Enemies”) 		NEW
7 Meryl Streep
“Julie & Julia”		 NEW
8 Kathy Bates
“Chéri”		 NEW
9 Judi Dench
“Nine”		 NEW
10 Rachel Weisz
“The Lovely Bones”		 NEW

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Taking Woodstock”
Written by James Schamus
Based on the book by Tom Monte		 NEW
2 “An Education”
Written by Nick Hornby
Based on the memoir by Lynn Barber		 NEW
3 “Nine”
Written by Michael Tolkin, Anthony Minghella
Based on the novel by Arthur L. Kopit		 NEW
4 “Chéri”
Written by Christopher Hampton
Based on the novel by Collette		 NEW
5 “Shutter Island”
Written by Brian Helgeland
Based on the novel by Dennis Lehane		 NEW
6 “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project”
Written by Anthony Peckham
Based on the book “Playing the Enemy” by JohN Carlin		 NEW
7 “The Lovely Bones”
Written by Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh
Based on the novel by Alice Sebold		 NEW
8 “Public Enemies”
Written by Ronan Bennett, Ann Biderman, Michael Mann
Based on the book “Public Enemies: America’s Greatest Crime Wave and the Birth of the FBI, 1933-34 ” by Bryan Burrough		 NEW
9 “Amelia”
Written by Ronald Bass
Source material to be determined		 NEW
10 “Up in the Air”
Written by Jason Reitman
Based on the novel by Walter Kirn		 NEW

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Up”
Written by Bob Peterson		 NEW
2 “A Serious Man”
Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen		 NEW
3 “Broken Embraces”
Written by Pedro Almodóvar		 NEW
4 “The Boat That Rocked”
Written by Richard Curtis		 NEW
5 “Away We Go”
Written by Dave Eggars, Vendela Vida		 NEW
6 “Biutiful”
Written by Amando Bo, Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu		 NEW
7 “Whatever Works”
Written by Woody Allen		 NEW
8 “The Hurt Locker”
Written by Mark Boal		 NEW
9 “Funny People”
Written by Judd Apatow		 NEW
10 “The Limits of Control”
Written by Jim Jarmusch		 NEW

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures		 NEW
2 “Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea”
Walt Disney Pictures		 NEW
3 “Monsters vs. Aliens”
DreamWorks SKG		 NEW
4 “The Princess and the Frog”
Walt Disney Pictures		 NEW
5 “Coraline”
Focus Features		 NEW
6 “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
20th Century Fox		 NEW
7 “A Christmas Carol”
Walt Disney Pictures		 NEW
8 “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”
20th Century Fox		 NEW
9 “9”
Focus Features		 NEW
10 “G-Force”
Walt Dsiney Pictures		 NEW