In Contention

Category: Box Office

  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Dragon’ slays

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    I trust your dragons have been sufficiently trained. Despite sounding like a codename for masturbation amongst middle schoolers, “How to Train Your Dragon” is the number one movie at the box office with $43.3 million smackers. Depending on how you look at things, this result could be great or okay. Considering that Paramount and DreamWorks scored $60.5 million for “Monsters vs. Aliens” last March, it may look like a disappointment. But that film came out when 3D was still a novelty and had a hook right in the title that was simply never gonna miss with kids.

    Now 3D is everywhere and ticket prices rose steeply over the weekend, possibly hindering the performance. Theater owners may want to chill out a bit because as soon as going to the movies becomes a luxury that the poor can no longer afford, it will cease to be a recession-proof business. In any case, you can continue to expect one big budget computer animated title every March until the end of time.

    “Alice in Wonderland” relinquished its three week hold on the throne by slipping 49% to $17.3 million. That drop is mainly due to the loss of precious 3D venues, but the film already has just a shade under $300 million total so don’t shed any tears. I’m just waiting for CNN to break the story that Tim Burton has been locked in a basement somewhere for the last fifteen years and his twin brother has been directing movies armed only with some black and white striped fabric and VHS copies of previous Tim Burton films as his filmmaking training.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Dragon’ art

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Years of frustration over how to precisely train my dragon will be resolved today as Paramount has released the informative documentary, “How to Train Your Dragon.” There’s one of these bawdy animated titles every March and they usually do pretty damn well. “Monsters vs. Aliens” debuted with $60.5 million last year and “Horton Hears a Who!” snagged $47.7 million the year before.

    I think “Dragon” will fall closer to the latter than the former since it has no famous source material and failed to put the one word in its title that would have excited young boys:  Vikings! Hello? Who makes an animated movie about Vikings and doesn’t put that in the title? It’s like naming “Toy Story” “Escape From the Room.”

    Now, the movie is in 3D and on over 4,000 screens so it’s almost impossible for it not to be huge. I’m just thinking somewhere around $45 million for this one.

    The only other movie opening wide is “Hot Tub Time Machine” from MGM. The studio hasn’t released a movie since “Fame” and is more or less dead and bankrupt. They’d like you to think that this is the new “The Hangover,” but the concept is way more wacky and esoteric.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Dear ‘Diary,’ Why wasn’t I in 3D?

    Diary of a Wimpy Kid*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    I haven’t heard a single person say “Alice in Wonderland” is anything but awful yet here we stand at its third weekend atop the box office. The film added another $34.5 million to its staggering tally of $265.8 million and I don’t really know what to say about that. In 17 days it has already matched the totals of films like “Star Trek,” “Gladiator” and “Pearl Harbor.” Something is bringing people to this product in ridiculous numbers and barring a better explanation, Hollywood is assuming that it’s the 3D so get ready to see “Little Fockers” and “True Grit” in an extra dimension this Christmas. Hell, get ready to see Burger King commercials in 3D soon enough.

    Second place goes to “Diary of a Wimpy Kid,” which exceeded expectations with $21.8 million. I attribute this to the robust star power of Zachary Gordon and his monumentally popular voice work in “Santa Buddies.” Fox’s marketing managed to make the PG-rated flick look appealing to teenagers and some young adults without alienating kids and parents like “Drillbit Taylor” did so kudos to them.

    “The Bounty Hunter” is a surprising third place finisher with $21.0 million. Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler are the epitome of modern movie stars where they have a number of big films under their belt and solid name recognition but can’t open just any old movie to big numbers. Luckily, their pairing here and Sony’s marketing muscle earned them just enough to stay on the B-list. Your move “Killers.”

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Bounty’ soft

    Gerard Butler in The Bounty Hunter*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Forgive me if this entry seems a little rushed, but I’ve been flying most of the day and detoxing from South by Southwest. It was my first time attending since 2006 and the growth in scope, prestige and attendance since then was staggering. The quality and selection of films, however, has not suffered and there remains no better film festival in the United States to see unique, low budget independent films that may or may not make it to your local multiplex. “Cold Weather,” “Passenger Pigeons,” “Putty Hill,” “The Myth of the American Sleepover” and “Tiny Furniture” are just a few that you should keep your eyes on.

    But enough about those itty bitty movies nobody cares about. How about “The Bounty Hunter?” Starring the only Friend to successfully craft a big screen career out of that small screen sensation and some Irish bloke that seems to really get off on playing chauvinists. And why not, since in Hollywood they get to treat the girl like shit and still win her in the end. One of three films coming out in the next few months with a hapless woman thrust together with a man of action (“Killers” and “Knight & Day” being the others), Sony was smart to push this one out first and should see something around $20 million for their troubles.

    Fox adapts a famous (so I’ve heard) series of young adult books with “Diary of a Wimpy Kid” and I heard it pitched as a PG-rated “Superbad” for middle schoolers. Truth be told, I think it actually looks pretty good and with no major kids product out there it may have a chance at some success. Unless it comes off as too raunchy for kids and too immature for teens and then Fox will be in trouble. I think it can give America $13 million worth of wedgies.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Lean ‘Zone’

    Matt Damon in Green Zone*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass return to the screen this week with their third collaboration and first outside of the Jason Bourne series. That particular franchise has done wonders for the careers of both men, particularly Greengrass, who won an Oscar nomination for “United 93,” but didn’t exactly see the film break the bank. Damon too, was just recognized by the Academy but had one of his leanest box office years on record with the stuttering “The Informant!” and “Invictus.”

    So here they stand with “Green Zone,” a stylistic twin to their bread and butter series. Universal is doing everything they possibly can to pretend this is just another Bourne film and has absolutely nothing to do with Iraq. “The Bourne Supremacy” debuted with $64.4 million en route to a $216.0 million finish. “The Bourne Ultimatum” did even better with a $76.6 million start and $251.6 million total. Compare that to the $14.7 million of “The Hurt Locker.” The best the Iraq War has ever done at the box office is the $52.6 million of “The Kingdom.” The only thing more poisonous at the box office than Iraq is Eddie Murphy. Hey-Oh! I think we’re looking at a subdued $18 million debut here.

    “She’s Out of My League” takes the subtext of every Judd Apatow produced comedy and makes it the whole plot. Ugly funny dude lands a boring hot chick and hopefully we all get a couple chuckles out of it. This is obviously trying to be for Jay Baruchel what “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” was for Jason Segal but I’m afraid that film’s $18.8 million debut will be out its league. Double digits will be a good result at this point so I’m saying $10 million.
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  • SUNDAY CENTS: A very important date

    Alice in Wonderland*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    May I introduce the film with the 14th biggest debut of all time, “Alice in Wonderland.” It’s also the biggest March debut, biggest 3D debut and third biggest non-sequel debut of all time. If your goal was to ensure that Tim Burton continues to lazily adapt his gothic style to beloved material over and over again, job well done America.

    Let’s just take a step back for a second. $116.3 million is the figure we’re looking at, which places it right between “X-Men: The Last Stand” and “The Matrix Reloaded.” Those are both huge sequels, released around Memorial Day and are expected to be in this kind of vicinity. No film has ever opened with $100 million outside of May, June, July or November before today but the combination of Burton, Johnny Depp and a bunch of characters made out of McDonalds happy meal toys proved too irresistible to ignore.

    Somehow Burton has built an entire career out of franchises, remakes and studio product aimed at merchandise as much as artistry, yet still maintained auteur credibility and worldwide acclaim. Congratulations to him for that, but a little more “Edward Scissorhands” and a little less “Alice in Wonderland” would be nice.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Alice’ super

    Mia Wasikowska in Alice in Wonderland*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Hot on the heels of “Avatar” crossing the $700 million mark to way less fanfare than I would have thought that would warrant six months ago, 2010 unleashes its very first 3D blockbuster.

    Everything about Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” screams smash hit and despite looking completely unappealing in every way to yours truly, it will no doubt break some box office records this weekend. Namely, the all-time biggest March debut currently held by the $78.4 million of “300.”

    How much higher can it go?

    Well, I think it’s safe to say that Burton’s personal best, the $92.1 million start for “Planet of the Apes,” is out of reach, but stranger things have happened. Like “Planet of the Apes” grossing $92.1 million for instance. Between the Disney brand, the 3D gimmick, Burton’s cache and Johnny Depp’s star power, every demographic is being reached and with competition non-existent, things are looking very good. I’m going to say $82 million.
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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Win for ‘Shutter,’ new films stutter

    Cop Out*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Kevin Smith has never had a number one film at the box office and Martin Scorsese has ensured that he won’t buck the trend in 2010. “Shutter Island” is the top box office performer for the second weekend in a row, dropping 46% to $22.2 million. That puts it firmly in the could-have-been worse, could-have-been-better category and with $75.1 million in the bank so far, Paramount can consider their decision to move out of October justified, particularly since I don’t think the Oscars would have touched it with a 10-foot pole, but that’s just me.

    Smith’s “Cop Out” did manage an $18.6 million debut, handily becoming a career-high for its director. For Bruce Willis, on the other hand, it falls somewhere between “The Whole Nine Yards” and “The Kid,” amongst a bevy of forgettable titles. Reviews were scathing and drops should be harsh so it will be a close race with the $46 million of “Dogma” to the title of Smith’s biggest hit. If Warner Bros. was using this as an audition for a bigger franchise, I think Silent Bob has fluffed his chance. It should also be noted that the figure is inflated slightly by the extra seats Smith has to buy for himself when he went.

    Not too far off in third is “The Crazies,” which managed a $16.5 million debut from nearly 700 fewer screens than “Cop Out,” giving it the second-best per theater average in the top 10. Overture did a good job of raising awareness and interest amongst the target audience, which must not include me, because I never saw a single thing about it once, anywhere.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Cop’ and a laugh

    (from left) Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis in Cop Out*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s the last full weekend before the Oscars. Have you seen all the nominees yet? I sure haven’t. In fact, there isn’t a single category where I’ve seen every film and can have an educated opinion. That’s not likely to change before the big day since I’ve been happy to put the 2009 movie-going year to bed for a while.

    There’s plenty of new joy to be found! Like “Cop Out,” the first big budget studio outing from Kevin Smith. Primarily known as the guy behind a bunch of movies your college roommate likes, he is notably absent from all press materials for the Bruce Willis/Tracy Morgan buddy flick.

    Willis typically can’t open straight-forward action films to very much, unless they have the words “Die” and “Hard” in them. Recent run-of-the-mill efforts include “Surrogates” ($15.2 million), “16 Blocks” ($13.8 million) and “Hostage” ($12.1 million).

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Leonardo leads (Donatello does machines)

    Shutter Island*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s fourth collaboration together has provided the former with his biggest debut ever and the latter’s second only to “Titanic.” $40.2 million is the estimate, which puts it a fraction behind “Madea Goes to Jail” from this same weekend last year and means that unless word of mouth is particularly poisonous, it should squeak past the $100 million mark. To do so, it’ll have to perform more like an esteemed thriller than a typical horror film as “Friday the 13th” could only translate a $41.4 million February opening into a $68.9 million total last year.

    Second place goes to “Valentine’s Day,” which suffered a morale-damaging 69% dip from last weekend. The drop was never going to be kind due to the holiday last Monday but only “New Moon” and Ang Lee’s “Hulk” have dropped harder while playing on more than 3,500 screens. I guess audiences decided not to go back and watch it again for all the hidden nuances in the way Jamie Foxx says “Damn!” to something off-screen.

    “The Wolfman” also fell 69% to $9.8 million and fifth place, although that was a bit more expected. It will now be lucky to gross $71 million, which is what it would need to surpass “Teen Wolf.” Maybe if Anthony Hopkins’s character was a bit more like Rupert “Stiles” Stilinksi, Universal could be a little closer to recouping that $150 million budget. Maybe throw in Del Toro doing a handstand on a horse and carriage ride? Just thinking out loud.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Shutter’ to sink?

    (from left) Ben Kingsley and Leonardo DiCaprio in Shutter Island*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s been a long time coming but “Shutter Island” finally hits screens this weekend, with no competition in sight. That’s right, Scorsese gets the weekend all to himself and his genre exercise, which is opening on just under 3,000 screens. The man is viewed as something of a deity, particularly on sites like this, and his fanbase clearly spans over more than one generation. At age 60, his career took a turn towards the populist and there seems to be no looking back. “Shutter Island” should be able to straddle the line between snobs and laymen, men and women and teens and adults. Sounds like a winning combination.

    “The Departed” opened to $31 million in 2006 and is Scorsese’s highest grossing film, along with the reason he has an Oscar on his mantle. Picking up a lifetime achievement gong at the Golden Globes last month is just another reason why his profile has never been higher across the country. His last attempt at this type of film was 1991’s “Cape Fear,” which opened with $18.5 million en route to a $143.6 million finish, and that’s certainly not out of reach here, although I’d say it’s unlikely. I’ll say $33 million for the weekend and then it’ll need strong word of mouth to hit $100 million.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Love glory

    Valentine's Day*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The overwhelming demand to see an eclectic array of celebrities fall in love with as little character development as possible has led to “Valentine’s Day” both winning the weekend and posting the biggest President’s Day debut of all time, narrowly eclipsing “Ghost Rider.” $52.4 million is the gross, which should balloon to around $60 million including tomorrow, and you have your first $100 million earner of 2010 on the way. The timing couldn’t have worked out better, with Warner Bros. estimating today’s gross to be bigger than Friday or Saturday.

    It was a fierce battle for second place between “Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief” and “The Wolfman.” The former took the edge with $31.1 million, while the hairier option earned $30.6 million. That’s a win for Chris Columbus, who was in desperate need of one after “I Love You Beth Cooper” and “Rent,” and the fantasy flick should have enough juice to flirt with the $100 million barrier.

    “The Wolfman,” however, will likely have to settle for around $75 million and some solid overseas grosses. For a project as troubled as this was, Universal can’t complain. Believe it or not, that will make it the third biggest film Del Toro has ever been a part of after “Traffic” and “Sin City.”

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Valentine’s Day’ love fest

    Benicio Del Toro in The Wolfman*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Sorry this is late folks. I can remember all the words to “Teenage Dirtbag” by Wheatus without hearing it for five years but I can’t seem to remember to write this column every week.

    Anyway, it’s a big weekend. President’s Day means it’s a four-day tally and Sunday being Valentine’s Day means certain titles have a leg up. One such title is “Valentine’s Day,” starring at least one person you, your sister, your mother and your grandmother really like. The 75-year-old man who directed “Pretty Woman” is putting it all together and there’s really no stopping it.

    “50 First Dates” managed $55 million from the four-day weekend in 2004 and I’d say only the overachieving debut of “Dear John” will keep this lower. Give it $50 million for four days and $43 million for the three days.

    “The Wolfman” once seemed like a hot commodity. Mark Romanek was an inspired directing choice and Benicio Del Toro’s casting saved the production millions in makeup costs. But Romanek got replaced with Joe Johnston, the release date got delayed a couple times and the whole thing now looks like a giant turd. Still, enough people may be interested in some cheap thrills to get it to $27 million for the three days and $33 million for the long weekend.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Dear James, Suck it! Signed, ‘Dear John’

    Dear John*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    After spending only seven weeks at the top of the box office, “Avatar” was humiliatingly defeated by “Dear John” and doomed to obscurity forever by dropping to second place.

    The new weekend victor earned a phenomenal $32.4 million to end James Cameron’s epic reign and finally give 2010 something new to talk about. The result is better than the $28.3 million start of “He’s Just Not That Into You” on this same weekend last year and boosts the star power of Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried.

    Seyfried has had an interesting career filled with hits (“Mamma Mia!”) and misses (“Jennifer’s Body”), but avoiding the glory or the blame that comes with both. This victory clearly belongs to her, though, and who would have thought watching “Mean Girls” that in five years, she would have a career and Lohan would not?

    “Avatar” dipped 25% to $23.6 million in its first post-Oscar nominations weekend. The running total is now $630.1 million and $700 million should be a piece of cake, particularly if a Best Picture win comes in early March. If so, Cameron would have the only two films to hit that mark in the last 26 years, but he shouldn’t get too comfortable with that stat since I just heard Taylor Lautner is going to be in the “Stretch Armstrong” movie.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: 72 degrees and ‘Avatar’

    John Travolta in From Paris with Love*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    “Avatar” has swept aside the entire January schedule with relative ease and is aiming for an eighth weekend at the top of the box office. Considering it dropped only 10% last week despite some direct male competition from Mel Gibson and it now has 9 Oscar nominations to brag about, you can expect another slim decline and $25 million+. That should be more than enough to secure victory against Channing Tatum and John Travolta.

    Tatum headlines “Dear John” with Amanda Seyfried, from the author of “The Notebook.” It’s a date movie for the date crowd and hey, did we mention it’s from the author of “The Notebook?” The premise sounds like a 1940s film, writing letters to a soldier and all. Shouldn’t the title be “New Facebook Message, RE: Miss U Lots xo <3?” Anyway, that very fact mixed with the cast should satisfy women of all ages and help this one to $21 million or so.

    The director of “Taken” is back and blowing more shit up with “From Paris With Love.” There are three reasons why this won’t be as successful. One: Mel Gibson’s movie may not have done well but it’s still out and still direct competition. Two: Lionsgate is releasing and there is a ceiling to what they can accomplish with an action film ($18 million). Three: Liam Neeson looked all sorts of badass in the “Taken” trailer. In this, John Travolta looks like the bouncer at the Jackhammer gay club in Tribeca. $13 million.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Darkness’ falls

    Edge of Darkness*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The self-proclaimed King of the World wiped the floor with the self-proclaimed King of Malibu as “Avatar” spent a seventh consecutive week at the top of the box office. A cool $30 million represents a drop of only 14% from last week and again sits only behind “Titanic” as the biggest seventh weekend tally ever.

    The running total is now $594.5 million and it should pass the $600 million mark by Wednesday, joining “E.T.: The Extra Terrestrial,” “Titanic,” “Return of the Jedi,” “Jurassic Park” and “Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace” as the only films of the modern era to do so. The success of this film has become so monotonous that I can’t even muster any energy to be snarky about it anymore.

    Mel Gibson’s return to the silver screen proved to be no “Taken.” It proved to not even be a “Legion” as it debuted with a soft $17.1 million. That’s the lowest debut for a Gibson joint since the $17 million start for “Braveheart” in 1995 on 1,000 less screens. Blame it on fading star power, bad accents, generic advertising and a lack of 3D smurf-like things riding dragons.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Fairy’ bust

    Legion*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Blah blah blah blah “Avatar” blah blah number one blah blah blah $36 million. Second biggest sixth weekend ever, behind “Titanic.” $550 million+ in the bank, passing “The Dark Knight” and entering the top 10 highest grossing films of the modern era (1980 onward). The drop was only 16% from last weekend, which was a Holiday remember, and James Cameron’s fart will go on and on and on.

    “Legion” took the runner up spot with $18.2 million, and as I said on Friday, anything over $16 million would be a huge win. Sony just can’t lose with this kind of product and it will join “Vantage Point,” “21” and “Lakeview Terrace” as successful films that nobody will remember in two years. But anything that keeps Paul Bettany employed can’t be all bad.

    “The Book of Eli” drops 48% to third place and $17 million, which is pretty solid. With last Sunday’s figures inflated by the holiday and word-of-mouth not expected to be great, things could have been a lot worse for Denzel and the Hughes Brothers.

    “Tooth Fairy” failed to get off the ground, taking fourth place with $14.5 million and represents the second straight seemingly can’t-miss family film to drop the ball. I’d say that maybe kids and parents are raising their standards but “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” passed the $200 million mark on Saturday so…

    Just to recap: Denzel Washington films to make $200 million = zero. Singing chipmunk films to make $200 million = two.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: The awful ‘Tooth’

    Duane Johnson in Tooth Fairy*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Here we go again. There’s very little reason to think that “Avatar” won’t spend a sixth consecutive weekend at the top of the box office. No film has done that since “Titanic” and only three have done it since 1988. It’s just not possible these days. But here we stand.

    While the Golden Globes did little to make me think James Cameron wasn’t a total prick, it did help “Avatar” gain even more momentum during awards season and another $30 million+ weekend should be in store, taking the film past “The Dark Knight” on the all-time chart. Since that was one of the few blockbusters I could stomach, I’m sad to see it usurped so quickly.

    Second place will be a battle between two grown men with wings. One is playing it for laughs and the other is playing it for badass religious action. Did you catch the word that is box office poison in the last sentence? Actually, “Legion” has garnered a fair amount of decent buzz and Sony is better than anyone at turning these types of genre films into hits so that might balance out the R-word. I think a $16 million debut would be impressive and anything higher would be huge.

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