OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — June 1, 2008

NUTSHELL: With the first benchmark of Cannes behind us, not much has necessitated a drastic overhaul. Some films seemed to slide off the landscape somewhat with weak reactions here and there (“Blindness,” “Che” — save, of course, for Mr. Del Toro), while others made their move on unsuspecting categories that seem wide open at this point, following largely positive notices (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” “Changeling”). A few new films have suddenly joined the company of 2009 and are represented this month, while trailers have revealed the potential for greatness (or mediocrity) for a few other efforts.

(NOTE: I’m sticking with the title “Che” in the charts rather than splitting the effort in two. The Contenders section, however, still lists the separate films per category and studio.)

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “The Soloist”
DreamWorks SKG
up
2 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
down
3 “Doubt”
Miramax Films
up
4 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
down
5 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
6 “Changeling”
Universal Pictures
NEW
7 “Milk”
Focus Features
down
8 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
down
9 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
down
10 “Body of Lies”
Warner Bros. Pictures
down

DIRECTING
1 Joe Wright
“The Soloist”
up
2 David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
up
3 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
down
4 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
5 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
6 John Patrick Shanley
“Doubt”
7 Clint Eastwood
“Changeling”
NEW
8 Steven Soderbergh
“Che”
up
9 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
down
10 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
down

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
2 Benicio Del Toro
“Che”
up
3 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”
down
4 Sean Penn
“Milk”
5 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (or “Burn After Reading”)
6 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
6 Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”
NEW
7 Phillip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
8 Josh Brolin
“W”
9 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road” (or “Appaloosa”)
NEW
10 Will Smith
“Seven Pounds”

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
up
2 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
down
3 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
4 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
NEW
5 Michelle Pfeiffer
“Chéri”
NEW
6 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
7 Emily Blunt
“The Young Victoria”
NEW
8 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
down
9 Kate Beckinsale
“Nothing But the Truth”
down
10 Julianne Moore
“Blindness” (or “Savage Grace”)
down

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Soloist” (or “Tropic Thunder”)
up
3 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
4 Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”
up
5 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
up
6 James Franco
“Pineapple Express” (or “Milk”)
7 Tobey Maguire
“Brothers”
NEW
8 Liev Schreiber
“Defiance”
NEW
9 Alan Alda
“Nothing But the Truth”
10 Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Road”
NEW

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
NEW
2 Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”
3 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
4 Catherine Keener
“The Soloist” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
up
5 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
up
6 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
down
7 Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”
NEW
8 Rachel Weisz
“The Brothers Bloom”
up
9 Rosario Dawson
“Seven Pounds”
up
10 Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”
downup

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
2 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the novel by Richard Yates
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Written by Eric roth
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
4 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
5 “Body of Lies”
Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian
Based on the book by David Ignatius
6 “Chéri”
Written by Christopher Hampton
Based on the novel by Colette
NEW
7 “The Road”
Written by Joe Penhall
Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy
NEW
8 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
down
9 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
down
10 “Miracle at St. Anna”
Written by James McBride
Based on his novel

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “The Soloist”
Written by Susannah Grant
2 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
up
3 “Synecdoche, New York”
Written by Charlie Kaufman
up
4 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
down
5 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
NEW
6 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
down
7 “Seven Pounds”
Written by Grant Nieporte
up
8 “WALL-E”
Written by Andrew Stanton
down
9 “Hamlet 2”
Written by Pam Brady, Andrew Fleming
down
10 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Bettie, Ronald Harwood, Baz Luhrmann
down

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
NEW
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
down
4 “Coraline”
Focus Features
5 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
6 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
7 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
9 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures
10 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures