In Contention

OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — February 9, 2009

NUTSHELL: As we move into the second week since the nominations were announced, nothing much has changed. A few pot shots at “Slumdog Millionaire” have apparently been deflected, though Gus Van Sant’s “Milk” is proving to be formidable, perhaps more so than the perceived #2, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” The real races to watch will be Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, of course, while some drama could also be lying in wait in the Best Original Screenplay category. All I can really think about his how badly I want to see Mickey Rourke holding an Oscar…and I can’t be the only one. We’ve also added the foreign language film chart.

Column: “Come together, right now”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
—
2 “Milk”
Focus Features
up
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
down
4 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
—
5 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
—

DIRECTING
1 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
—
2 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
—
3 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
—
4 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
—
5 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
—

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
up
2 Sean Penn
“Milk”
down
3 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
—
4 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
—
5 Richard Jenkins
“The Visitor”
—

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Kate Winslet
“The Reader”
—
2 Meryl Streep
“Doubt”
—
3 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
—
4 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
—
5 Melissa Leo
“Frozen River”
—

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
—
2 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
—
3 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
—
4 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
—
5 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
—

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
—
2 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
—
3 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
—
4 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
—
5 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
—

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q and A” by Vikas Swarup
—
2 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
up
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
down
4 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his stage play
—
5 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his stage play
—

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “WALL-E”
Original story by Pete Docter, Andrew Stanton
Screenplay by Jim Reardon, Andrew Stanton
—
2 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
—
3 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
—
4 “In Bruges”
Written by Martin McDonagh
—
5 “Frozen River”
Written by Courtney Hunt
—

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
2 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
—
3 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
—

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1 “Waltz with Bashir”
Israel
Directed by Ari Folman
NEW
2 “The Class”
France
Directed by Laurent Cantet
NEW
3 “The Baader Meinhof Complex”
Germany
Directed by Uli Edel
NEW
4 “Revanche”
Austria
Directed by Götz Spielmann
NEW
5 “Departures”
Japan
Directed by Yojiro Takita
NEW