In Contention

OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — October 13, 2008

NUTSHELL: Overture Films has sparked interest in “Last Chance Harvey,” but Dustin Hoffman will have a tough time breaking into that stacked Best Actor category. Maybe a surprise nomination for Joel Hopkins’ screenplay is an unconsidered possibility. “The Dark Knight” makes its first move into the Best Picture chart after terrible pre-release press (and difficulty mobilizing at The Weinstein Company) could have put a damper on the prospects of “The Reader.” Fox Searchlight is 99% guaranteed to have the most beloved film yet again — but can they turn that into most loved?

Column: no column this week

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Milk”
Focus Features
—
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
—
3 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
—
4 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
up
5 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
down
6 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
—
7 “Gran Torino”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
8 “The Soloist”
DreamWorks SKG
down
9 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage
—
10 “The Dark Knight”
Warner Bros. Pictures
NEW

DIRECTING
1 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
—
2 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
—
3 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
—
4 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
—
5 Christopher Nolan
“The Dark Knight”
—
6 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
—
7 Darren Aronofsky
“The Wrestler”
—
8 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino” (or “Changeling”)
—
9 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
—
10 Edward Zwick
“Defiance”
—

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
—
2 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
—
3 Sean Penn
“Milk”
—
4 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
—
5 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Soloist”
—
6 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
—
7 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
—
8 Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”
—
9 Josh Brolin
“W.”
—
10 Benicio Del Toro
“Che”
—

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Kristin Scott Thomas
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
—
2 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
—
3 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
—
4 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
—
5 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
—
6 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
up
7 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
down
8 Melissa Leo
“Frozen River”
down
9 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
down
10 Michelle Williams
“Wendy and Lucy”
—

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
—
2 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”
—
3 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
—
4 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
—
5 James Franco
“Milk”
—
6 Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Road”
—
7 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
—
8 Christian McKay
“Me and Orson Welles”
—
9 Eddie Marsan
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
up
10 Peter O’Toole
“Dean Spanley”
down

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
—
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
—
3 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
—
4 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
—
5 Rosemarie Dewitt
“Rachel Getting Married”
up
6 Elsa Zylberstein
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
down
7 Elizabeth Banks
“W.”
—
8 Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth” (or “The Boy in Striped Pyjamas”)
—
9 Hiam Abbas
“The Visitor”
—
10 Catherine Keener
“The Soloist” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
—

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
—
2 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
—
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
—
4 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the short story by Richard Yates
—
5 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
—
6 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
—
7 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
—
8 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
—
9 “The Road”
Written by Joe Penhall
Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy
—
10 “Body of Lies”
Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian
Based on the book by David Ignatius
—

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
—
2 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
—
3 “The Soloist”
Written by Susannah Grant
up
4 “Rachel Getting Married”
Written by Jenny Lumet
up
5 “The Visitor”
Written by Thomas McCarthy
up
6 “Gran Torino”
Written by Nick Schenk
up
7 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
up
7 “Last Chance Harvey”
Written by Joel Hopkins
NEW
9 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann
—
10 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
—

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
—
4 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
—
5 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
—
6 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
—
7 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
—
9 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
—
10 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures
—