OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — November 3, 2008

NUTSHELL: With only four major contenders yet to screen to the press at large, the Oscar season is coming into focus. “Doubt” holds strong in most places this week, though a dedicated and focused campaign is what Viola Davis will need to make it across the finish line. Josh Brolin re-emerges as the true stand-out supporting portrayal in “Milk” for our money, while Sean Penn secures the frontrunner position once again. The film itself is on similar terrain with “Frost/Nixon” for coveted Best Picture placement. Elsewhere, Dev Patel pokes into the supporting arena and “The Dark Knight” surges on the Best Picture chart.

Column: no column this week

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
up
2 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
up
3 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
up
4 “Milk”
Focus Features
down
5 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
down
6 “The Dark Knight”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
7 “Gran Torino”
Warner Bros. Pictures
down
8 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
9 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
down
10 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage
down

DIRECTING
1 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
2 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
3 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
4 Christopher Nolan
“The Dark Knight”
5 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
6 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
7 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino” (or “Changeling”)
8 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
NEW
9 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
down
10 Edward Zwick
“Defiance”
down

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Sean Penn
“Milk”
up
2 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
down
3 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
4 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
5 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
up
6 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
down
7 Josh Brolin
“W.”
8 Benicio Del Toro
“Che”
9 Richard Jenkins
“The Visitor”
10 Dustin Hoffman
“Last Chance Harvey”

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”
2 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
3 Kristin Scott Thomas
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
4 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
5 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
6 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
7 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
8 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
9 Melissa Leo
“Frozen River”
10 Michelle Williams
“Wendy and Lucy”

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
3 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
4 Dev Patel
“Slumdog Millionaire”
NEW
5 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
NEW
6 Ralph Fiennes
“The Reader” (or “The Duchess”)
up
7 Eddie Marsan
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
8 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
down
9 Bill Irwin
“Rachel Getting Married”
down
10 Liev Schrieber
“Defiance”
down

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
4 Rosemarie DeWitt
“Rachel Getting Married”
5 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
6 Kate Winslet
“The Reader”
7 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
up
8 Hiam Abbas
“The Visitor”
down
9 Freida Pinto
“Slumdog Millionaire”
down
10 Elsa Zylberstein
“I’ve Loved You So Long”

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
3 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the short story by Richard Yates
4 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
5 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
6 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
7 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
8 “The Class”
Written by François Bégaudeau, Robin Campillo, Laurent Cantet
Based on the book by François Bégaudeau
NEW
9 “Gomorrah”
Written by Maurizio Braucci, Ugo Chiti, Gianni Di Gregorio, Matteo Garrone, Massimo Gaudiso, Roberto Saviano
Based on the book by Roberto Saviano
NEW
10 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
down

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
2 “Rachel Getting Married”
Written by Jenny Lumet
3 “The Visitor”
Written by Thomas McCarthy
4 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
5 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
6 “Gran Torino”
Written by Nick Schenk
7 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann
8 “Last Chance Harvey”
Written by Joel Hopkins
9 “The Wrestler”
Written by Robert Siegel
up
10 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
NEW

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
4 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
5 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
6 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
up
7 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
down
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
9 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
10 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures