OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — August 4, 2008

NUTSHELL: Big gains this month for “The Dark Knight,” shaping up to be a box office critical fave much like “The Bourne Ultimatum” last year. John Hillcoat’s Cormac McCarthy adaptation “The Road” also makes its move in a few areas, while Spike Lee’s World War II adaptation “Miracle at St. Anna” could be something to watch across the tech board as well. The real question mark sticking my my head is “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.” It’s hard enough to keep from striking it from nearly every race, but will voters feel the same? Are they ready to move on from this franchise, including — gasp — snubbing John Williams? Finally, could the December disaster remake “The Day the Earth Stood Still” find room in the sound categories as well as the steadily deflating visual effects arena?

Column: “Calm before the storm”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

ART DIRECTION
1 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
Guy Dyas; Larry Dias, Alyssa Winter
2 “Australia”
Catherine Martin
up
3 “Defiance”
Dan Weil; Véronique Melery
4 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Donald Graham Burt; Victor J. Zolfo
5 “Revolutionary Road”
Kristi Zea; Debra Schutt
6 “Synecdoche, New York”
Mark Friednamn; Lydia Marks
7 “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
Stuart Craig; Stephanie McMillan
8 “Appaloosa”
Waldemar Kalinowski; Linda Lee Sutten
up
9 “Miracle at St. Anna”
Tonino Zera; Christina Onori
down
10 “The Road”
Chris Kennedy; Robert Greenfield, John W. Iwanonkiw
NEW

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1 “The Dark Knight”
Wally Pfister
2 “Australia”
Mandy Walker
3 “Defiance”
Eduardo Serra
4 “Revolutionary Road”
Roger Deakins
5 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Claudio Miranda
6 “The Road”
Javier Aguirresarobe
7 “Appaloosa”
Dean Semler
8 “Blindness”
César Charlone
9 “Miracle at St. Anna”
Matthew Libatique
NEW
10 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
Janusz Kaminski

COSTUME DESIGN
1 “The Young Victoria”
Sandy Powell
2 “Revolutionary Road”
Albert Wolsky
up
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Jacqueline West
down
4 “Changeling”
Deborah Hopper
5 “Australia”
Catherine Martin
6 “Brideshead Revisited”
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh
7 “The Duchess”
Michael O’Connor
NEW
8 “Defiance”
Jenny Beaven
NEW
9 “Doubt”
Ann Roth
down
10 “The Other Boleyn Girl”
Sandy Powell
down

FILM EDITING
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Angus Wall
2 “Defiance”
Steven Rosenblum
3 “Body of Lies”
Pietro Scalia
4 “Frost/Nixon”
Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
5 “The Dark Knight”
Lee Smith
up
6 “Australia”
Dody Dorn, Michael McCusker
up
7 “Quantum of Solace”
Matt Chesse, Richard Pearson
NEW
8 “The Road”
Jon Gregory
NEW
9 “Milk”
Elliot Graham, Gus Van Sant
down
10 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
Michael Kahn
down

MAKEUP
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
2 “Frost/Nixon” up
3 “Tropic Thunder” up
4 “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian”
5 “The Dark Knight” down
6 “Hellboy 2: The Golden Army”
7 “The Soloist” down
8 “Synecdoche, New York” dupown
9 “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” up
10 “The Road” NEW

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
1 “WALL-E”
Thomas Newman
2 “Revolutionary Road”
Thomas Newman
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Alexandre Desplat
4 “Defiance”
James Newton Howard
5 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
John Williams
6 “Doubt”
Philip Glass
7 “Australia”
David Hirschfelder
8 “The Happening”
James Newton Howard
up
9 “The Soloist”
Dario Marianelli
up
10 “Miracle at St. Anna”
Terence Blanchard
NEW

SOUND EDITING
1 “Wall-E”
2 “Defiance”
3 “The Dark Knight” up
4 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” down
5 “Iron Man”
6 “Body of Lies”
7 “Quantum of Solace” NEW
8 “Hancock” down
9 “The Road”
10 “The Day the Earth Stood Still”

SOUND MIXING
1 “Wall-E”
2 “Defiance”
3 “Iron Man”
4 “Body of Lies” up
5 “The Dark Knight” up
6 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” down
7 “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” up
8 “The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor” down
9 “Miracle at St. Anna”
10 “The Day the Earth Stood Still” NEW

VISUAL EFFECTS
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
2 “Iron Man” up
3 “The Day the Earth Stood Still” NEW
4 “Hancock” down
5 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” down
6 “The Incredible Hulk” down
7 “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” down
8 “Speed Racer” down
9 “The Spiderwick Chronicles” down
10 “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” down