OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — September 15, 2008

NUTSHELL: It’s mostly just slipping and sliding this week for the crafts categories. Gerard’s “Tech Support” columns will begin illuminating this section a lot more in upcoming weeks, but for the time being, it’s really all about where my hunches are lying. The biggest falls came for “Defiance,” to go alongside the film’s decline on the main charts in anticipation for “Revolutionary Road” being the most significant Vantage push (and Academy preference). But that could still go either way. I still find myself wondering how well “The Dark Knight” can mop up in these categories, while “Hellboy II: The Golden Army” is beginning to look more and more like a film that could push through in a couple of areas. The fact of the matter remains that these charts are going to stay in constant flux because you can never quite know where the various branches will go. Time will tell.

Column: “Looking for quality in the festival world”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

ART DIRECTION
1 “Australia”
Catherine Martin
2 “Revolutionary Road”
Kristi Zea; Debra Schutt
up
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Donald Graham Burt; Victor J. Zolfo
up
4 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
Guy Dyas; Larry Dias, Alyssa Winter
up
5 “Defiance”
Dan Weil; Véronique Melery
down
6 “The Road”
Chris Kennedy; Robert Greenfield, John W. Iwanonkiw
7 “Hellboy II: The Golden Army”
Stephen Scott; Elli Griff
NEW
8 “Synecdoche, New York”
Mark Friednamn; Lydia Marks
down
9 “Changeling”
James J. Murakami; Gary Fettis
down
10 “The Duchess”
Michael Carlin
down

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1 “The Dark Knight”
Wally Pfister
2 “Australia”
Mandy Walker
3 “Revolutionary Road”
Roger Deakins
4 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Claudio Miranda
up
5 “Defiance”
Eduardo Serra
down
6 “The Road”
Javier Aguirresarobe
7 “Blindness”
César Charlone
up
8 “Milk”
Harris Savides
down
9 “The Reader”
Chris Menges
down
10 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
Janusz Kaminski

COSTUME DESIGN
1 “Revolutionary Road”
Albert Wolsky
up
2 “Australia”
Catherine Martin
up
3 “The Duchess”
Michael O’Connor
up
4 “The Other Boleyn Girl”
Sandy Powell
up
5 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Jacqueline West
6 “Changeling”
Deborah Hopper
down
7 “Brideshead Revisited”
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh
down
8 “The Reader”
Ann Roth
9 “Defiance”
Jenny Beaven
10 “The Young Victoria”
Sandy Powell
down

FILM EDITING
1 “Milk”
Elliot Graham, Gus Van Sant
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
down
3 “The Dark Knight”
Lee Smith
up
4 “Frost/Nixon”
Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
down
5 “Australia”
Dody Dorn, Michael McCusker
up
6 “Defiance”
Steven Rosenblum
7 “Quantum of Solace”
Matt Chesse, Richard Pearson
up
8 “Body of Lies”
Pietro Scalia
down
9 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Chris Dickens
NEW
10 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
Michael Kahn

MAKEUP
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
2 “Hellboy II: The Golden Army” up
3 “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” down
4 “Tropic Thunder” down
5 “The Dark Knight” down
6 “The Reader”
7 “Synecdoche, New York” up
8 “Frost/Nixon” down
9 “The Road” up
10 “The Soloist” down

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
1 “WALL-E”
Thomas Newman
2 “Revolutionary Road”
Thomas Newman
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Alexandre Desplat
4 “Defiance”
James Newton Howard
5 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
John Williams
6 “Doubt”
Howard Shore
7 “Australia”
David Hirschfelder
8 “The Happening”
James Newton Howard
9 “Che”
Alberto Iglesias
NEW
10 “The Soloist”
Dario Marianelli
down

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
1 “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E”
Peter Gabriel
2 “Untitled Song” from “The Wrestler”
Bruce Springsteen
3 “All Dressed Up in Love” from “Sex and the City”
Jennifer Hudson
4 “Rock Me Sexy Jesus” from “Hamlet 2”
Phoebe Strole
5 “Last Chance” from “High School Musical 3: Senior Year”
Cast of “High School Musical 3: Senior Year”
6 “Another Way to Die” from “Quantum of Solace”
Alicia Keys, Jack White
7 “Dracula’s Lament” from “Forgetting Sarah Marshall”
Jason Segel
8 “Pineapple Express” from “Pineapple Express”
Huey Lewis and the News
9 “The Little Things” from “Wanted”
Danny Elfman
10 “A Night to Remember” from “High School Musical 3: Senior Year”
Cast of “High School Musical 3: Senior Year”

SOUND EDITING
1 “Wall-E”
2 “The Dark Knight” up
3 “Iron Man” up
4 “Defiance” down
5 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” down
6 “Body of Lies”
7 “Quantum of Solace”
8 “Hancock”
9 “The Day the Earth Stood Still”
10 “The Wrestler” NEW

SOUND MIXING
1 “Wall-E”
2 “Defiance”
3 “Iron Man”
4 “Body of Lies”
5 “The Dark Knight”
6 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
7 “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian”
8 “Cloverfield” NEW
9 “The Day the Earth Stood Still”
10 “The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor”

VISUAL EFFECTS
1 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
2 “Iron Man”
3 “The Day the Earth Stood Still”
4 “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian”
5 “Hellboy II: The Golden Army” down
6 “Hancock” down
7 “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” down
8 “The Incredible Hulk” down
9 “Speed Racer” down
10 “The Spiderwick Chronicles” down