OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — July 1, 2008

NUTSHELL: The month is set to be all about Heath, Heath, Heath. And though he still sits at the top of the supporting actor chart (where he has all week), we’re keeping our eye on a potential shift to lead. Elsewhere, I’ve decided to lean back toward Edward Zwick’s “Defiance” in the Paramount Vantage camp. Something is beginning to seem off about “Revolutionary Road.” And the former was high on my list of possibilities before Vantage inherited the Sam Mendes film, so it’s back to basics I suppose. I’ve got similar thoughts on “Doubt” (striking both Scott Rudin efforts from the predicted five might not be too smart, though).

Column: “Stuck in the middle with..what?”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “The Soloist”
DreamWorks SKG
2 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
3 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage
NEW
4 “Milk”
Focus Features
up
5 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
6 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
up
7 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
up
8 “Changeling”
Universal Pictures
down
9 “House of Lies”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
10 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
down

DIRECTING
1 Joe Wright
“The Soloist”
2 David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
4 Clint Eastwood
“Changeling” (or “Gran Torino”)
up
5 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
6 Edward Zwick
“Defiance”
NEW
7 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
up
8 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
up
9 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
down
10 John Hilcoat
“The Road”
NEW

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
2 Sean Penn
“Milk”
up
3 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”
down
4 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (or “Burn After Reading”)
up
5 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road”
up
6 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “House of Lies”)
down
7 Daniel Craig
“Defiance” (or “Quantum of Solace”)
NEW
8 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
NEW
9 Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”
down
10 Josh Brolin
“W”
down

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
2 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
up
3 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
down
4 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
5 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
up
6 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
up
7 Emily Blunt
“The Young Victoria”
8 Kate Beckinsale
“Nothing But the Truth”
up
9 Julianne Moore
“Blindness” (or “Savage Grace”)
up
10 Laura Linney
“The Other Man”
NEW

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Soloist” (or “Tropic Thunder”)
3 Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Road”
up
4 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
down
5 Russell Crowe
“House of Lies”
down
6 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
down
7 Liev Schreiber
“Defiance”
up
8 James Franco
“Pineapple Express” (or “Milk”)
down
9 Alan Alda
“Nothing But the Truth”
down
10 Jamie Bell
“Defiance”
NEW

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
up
3 Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”
up
4 Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”
down
5 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
6 Kate Winslet
“The Reader”
NEW
7 Catherine Keener
“The Soloist” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
down
8 Rachel Weisz
“The Brothers Bloom”
down
9 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
down
10 Emma Thompson
“Brideshead Revisited”
NEW

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Written by Eric Roth
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
3 “House of Lies”
Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian
Based on the book by David Ignatius
up
4 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
up
5 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the novel by Richard Yates
down
6 “The Road”
Written by Joe Penhall
Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy
up
7 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
up
8 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
down
9 “Miracle at St. Anna”
Written by James McBride
Based on his novel
up
10 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
NEW

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “The Soloist”
Written by Susannah Grant
2 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
3 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
up
4 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
5 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
6 “Synecdoche, New York”
Written by Charlie Kaufman
down
7 “Seven Pounds”
Written by Grant Nieporte
8 “WALL-E”
Written by Andrew Stanton
9 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Bettie, Ronald Harwood, Baz Luhrmann
up
10 “Hamlet 2”
Written by Pam Brady, Andrew Fleming
down

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”

Walt Disney Pictures

2 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
up
3 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
down
4 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
5 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
6 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
up
7 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
up
9 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
down
10 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
down