In Contention

OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — August 3, 2009

NUTSHELL: As the season slowly comes into focus, studios begin shifting release dates and priming their festival calendars. There’s still little to be heard about a number of the highly anticipated heavies (Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones,” Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus,” Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island”), but the most striking thing about this month’s chart revision is how indie-heavy the Best Picture slate is shaping up to be. Positive early word on Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air” joins already enthusiastic notices for Lee Daniels’s “Precious” and Lone Scherfig’s “An Education” on that front. It’s all guess work right now, of course, but maybe an extra five nominations won’t yield the commercial upswing many were anticipating.

Column: “Whittling further as convention flees”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Invictus”
Warner Bros. Pictures
—
2 “Nine”
The Weinstein Company
—
3 “Precious”
Lionsgate Films
—
4 “Bright Star”
Unnamed Bob Berney/Bill Polhad Company
up
5 “An Education”
Sony Pictures Classics
up
6 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures
up
7 “Amelia”
Fox Searchlight Pictures
down
8 “Up in the Air”
Paramount Pictures
up
9 “The Hurt Locker”
Summit Entertainment
down
10 “Capitalism: A Love Story”
Overture Films
NEW
11 “The Lovely Bones”
Paramount Pictures
down
12 “Avatar”
20th Century Fox
down
13 “Star Trek”
Paramount Pictures
down
14 “The Cove”
Roadside Attractions
NEW
15 “A Serious Man”
Focus Features
up
16 “Where the Wild Things Are”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
17 “Shutter Island”
Paramount Pictures
—
18 “Julie & Julia”
Columbia Pictures
NEW
19 “The Road”
The Weinstein Company
down
20 “Public Enemies”
Universal Pictures
down

DIRECTING
1 Clint Eastwood
“Invictus”
—
2 Rob Marshall
“Nine”
—
3 Lee Daniels
“Precious”
—
4 Jane Campion
“Bright Star”
—
5 Kathryn Bigelow
“The Hurt Locker”
—
6 Jason Reitman
“Up in the Air”
NEW
7 Lone Scherfig
“An Education”
up
8 James Cameron
“Avatar”
up
9 Peter Jackson
“The Lovely Bones”
down
10 Spike Jonze
“Where the Wild Things Are”
NEW

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Morgan Freeman
“Invictus”
—
2 Daniel Day-Lewis
“Nine”
—
3 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road”
up
4 George Clooney
“Up in the Air” (or “Men Who Stare at Goats”)
up
5 Jeremy Renner
“The Hurt Locker”
down
6 Matt Damon
“The Informant!”
down
7 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Shutter Island”
—
8 Michael Stuhlbarg
“A Serious Man”
NEW
9 Ethan Hawke
“Brooklyn’s Finest”
NEW
10 Peter Sarsgaard
“An Education”
—

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Hilary Swank
“Amelia”
—
2 Carey Mulligan
“An Education”
—
3 Meryl Streep
“Julie & Julia”
—
4 Abbie Cornish
“Bright Star”
—
5 Saoirse Ronan
“The Lovely Bones”
—
6 Penélope Cruz
“Broken Embraces”
—
7 Gabourey Sidibe
“Precious”
—
8 Charlize Theron
“The Burning Plain”
NEW
9 Audrey Tautou
“Coco Before Chanel”
up
10 Michelle Pfeiffer
“Chéri”
down

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Matt Damon
“Invictus”
—
2 Richard Kind
“A Serious Man”
—
3 Christoph Waltz
“Inglourious Basterds”
—
4 Richard Gere
“Amelia” (or “Brooklyn’s Finest”)
—
5 Alfred Molina
“An Education”
—
6 Stanley Tucci
“The Lovely Bones” (or “Julie & Julia”)
—
7 Anthony Mackie
“The Hurt Locker”
—
8 Paul Schneider
“Bright Star”
—
9 Tobey Maguire
“Brothers”
—
10 Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Road”
—

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Mo’nique
“Precious”
—
2 Judi Dench
“Nine”
—
3 Rachel Weisz
“The Lovely Bones”
up
4 Penélope Cruz
“Nine”
up
5 Anna Kendrick
“Up in the Air”
NEW
6 Marion Cotillard
“Public Enemies” (or “Nine”)
up
7 Imelda Staunton
“Taking Woodstock”
NEW
8 Emily Mortimer
“Shutter Island”
down
9 Michelle Williams
“Shutter Island”
down
10 Nicole Kidman
“Nine”
NEW

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Precious”
Written by Damien Paul
Based on the novel “Push” by Sapphire
—
2 “An Education”
Written by Nick Hornby
Based on the memoir by Lynn Barber
—
3 “Up in the Air”
Written by Jason Reitman
Based on the novel by Walter Kirn
up
4 “The Lovely Bones”
Written by Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh
Based on the novel by Alice Sebold
up
5 “Nine”
Written by Michael Tolkin, Anthony Minghella
Based on the novel by Arthur L. Kopit
down
6 “Invictus”
Written by Anthony Peckham
Based on the book “Playing the Enemy” by John Carlin
—
7 “Amelia”
Written by Ronald Bass
Source material to be determined
up
8 “Shutter Island”
Written by Laeta Kalogridis
Based on the novel by Dennis Lehane
up
9 “Where the Wild Things Are”
Written by Dave Eggers, Spike Jonze
Based on the book by Maurice Sendak
NEW
10 “Julie & Julia”
Written by Nora Ephron
Based on the book by Julie Powell
NEW

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Bright Star”
Written by Jane Campion
—
2 “Up”
Written by Bob Peterson
—
3 “A Serious Man”
Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
—
4 “Broken Embraces”
Written by Pedro Almodóvar
—
5 “The Hurt Locker”
Written by Mark Boal
—
6 “(500) Days of Summer”
Written by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
up
7 “Brooklyn’s Finest”
Written by Michael C. Martin
NEW
8 “Avatar”
Written by James Cameron
up
9 “Funny People”
Written by Judd Apatow
down
10 “Capitalism: A Love Story”
Written by Michael Moore
NEW

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
3 “Coraline”
Focus Features
—
3 “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
20th Century Fox
—
4 “Ponyo”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
5 “9”
Focus Features
up
6 “Monsters vs. Aliens”
DreamWorks SKG
down
7 “The Princess and the Frog”
Walt Disney Pictures
down
8 “A Christmas Carol”
Walt Disney Pictures
down
9 “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs”
Sony Pictures
NEW
10 “Planet 51”
Sony Pictures
down