OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — May 25, 2009

NUTSHELL: As we approach the year’s mid-way point, Oscar hopefuls are painfully few and far between. Though Lionsgate’s “Precious” could be an indie contender to watch after it completes a dazzling festival tour, and Cannes success “Bright Star” is the biggest mover and shaker in this update, most of the big titles remain, as ever, anticipated Oscar favorites (until this or that film inevitably falls by the wayside). But five months in, who would’ve thought the most likely Oscar film to already be released would be “Star Trek?”

Column: “Taking the temperature”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Invictus”
Warner Bros. Pictures
2 “Nine”
The Weinstein Company
3 “Precious”
Lionsgate Films
NEW
4 “Amelia”
Fox Searchlight Pictures
5 “Bright Star”
Unnamed Bob Berney/Bill Polhad Company
NEW
6 “Shutter Island”
Paramount Pictures
down
7 “Avatar”
20th Century Fox
NEW
8 “The Informant”
Warner Bros. Pictures
9 “Public Enemies”
Universal Pictures
down
10 “Green Zone”
Universal Pictures
NEW

DIRECTING
1 Clint Eastwood
“Invictus”
2 Rob Marshall
“Nine”
3 Lee Daniels
“Precious”
NEW
4 Jane Campion
“Bright Star”
NEW
5 James Cameron
“Avatar”
NEW
6 Mira Nair
“Amelia”
up
7 Martin Scorsese
“Shuter Island”
down
8 Steven Soderbergh
“The Informant”
up
9 Michael Mann
“Public Enemies”
down
10 Paul Greengrass
“Green Zone”
NEW

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Morgan Freeman
“Invictus”
2 Daniel Day-Lewis
“Nine”
3 Matt Damon
“The Informant” (or “Green Zone”)
4 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Shutter Island”
5 Ben Wishaw
“Bright Star”
NEW
6 Johnny Depp
“Public Enemies”
7 Javier Bardem
“Biutiful”
up
8 Jeremy Renner
“The Hurt Locker”
NEW
9 George Clooney
“Up in the Air” (or “Men Who Stare at Goats”)
down
10 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road”
down

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Hilary Swank
“Amelia”
up
2 Carey Mulligan
“An Education”
3 Penélope Cruz
“Broken Embraces”
up
4 Abbie Cornish
“Bright Star”
NEW
5 Gabourey Sidibe
“Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”
up
6 Michelle Pfeiffer
“Chéri”
down
7 Saoirse Ronan
“The Lovely Bones”
down
8 Helen Mirren
“The Tempest” (or “Love Ranch”)
down
9 Natalie Portman
“Brothers”
NEW
10 Audrey Tatou
“Coco avant Chanel”
down

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Matt Damon
“Invictus”
2 Richard Kind
“A Serious Man”
3 Mark Ruffalo
“Shutter Island”
up
4 Ewan McGregor
“Amelia”
up
5 Billy Crudup
“Public Enemies”
down
6 Christoph Waltz
“Inglourious Basterds”
NEW
7 Alfred Molina
“An Education”
8 Stanley Tucci
“The Lovely Bones”
NEW
9 Christian Bale
“Public Enemies”
down
10 Tobey Maguire
“Brothers”
NEW

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Mo’nique
“Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”
2 Judi Dench
“Nine”
up
3 Meryl Streep
“Julie & Julia”
up
4 Emily Mortimer
“Shutter Island”
NEW
5 Penélope Cruz
“Nine”
down
6 Michelle Williams
“Shutter Island”
down
7 Kathy Bates
“Chéri”
up
8 Marion Cotillard
“Public Enemies” (“Nine”)
down
9 Leslie Mann
“Funny People”
NEW
10 Rachel Weisz
“The Lovely Bones”

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Precious”
Written by Damien Paul
Based on the novel “Push” by Sapphire
NEW
2 “An Education”
Written by Nick Hornby
Based on the memoir by Lynn Barber
3 “Nine”
Written by Michael Tolkin, Anthony Minghella
Based on the novel by Arthur L. Kopit
4 “Shutter Island”
Written by Laeta Kalogridis
Based on the novel by Dennis Lehane
up
5 “Up in the Air”
Written by Jason Reitman
Based on the novel by Walter Kirn
up
6 “Invictus”
Written by Anthony Peckham
Based on the book “Playing the Enemy” by John Carlin
7 “The Lovely Bones”
Written by Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh
Based on the novel by Alice Sebold
8 “Chéri”
Written by Christopher Hampton
Based on the novel by Collette
down
9 “Amelia”
Written by Ronald Bass
Source material to be determined
10 “Public Enemies”
Written by Ronan Bennett, Ann Biderman, Michael Mann
Based on the book “Public Enemies: America’s Greatest Crime Wave and the Birth of the FBI, 1933-34 ” by Bryan Burrough
down

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Bright Star”
Written by Jane Campion
NEW
2 “Up”
Written by Bob Peterson
down
3 “A Serious Man”
Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
down
4 “Broken Embraces”
Written by Pedro Almodóvar
down
5 “Biutiful”
Written by Amando Bo, Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu
up
6 “Funny People”
Written by Judd Apatow
up
7 “The Boat That Rocked”
Written by Richard Curtis
down
8 “(500) Days of Summer”
Written by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
NEW
9 “The Hurt Locker”
Written by Mark Boal
down
10 “Whatever Works”
Written by Woody Allen
down

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Ponyo”
Walt Disney Pictures
3 “Coraline”
Focus Features
up
4 “Monsters vs. Aliens”
DreamWorks SKG
down
5 “The Princess and the Frog”
Walt Disney Pictures
down
6 “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
20th Century Fox
down
7 “A Christmas Carol”
Walt Disney Pictures
8 “9”
Focus Features
up
9 “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”
20th Century Fox
down
10 “G-Force”
Walt Dsiney Pictures