OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — June 29, 2009

NUTSHELL: With the Academy’s brazen decision to add five more slots in the Best Picture category comes any number of questions. Will films like “The Hurt Locker” find their way into the race? Will more populist entertainment finally be rewarded? Time will tell. What it means for the charts is an expanded list of 20 pictures. Films like “Funny People” and “Up in the Air” seem to make some sense as viable contenders now, while others like “Avatar” have a lot more room to breathe as Best Picture hopefuls.

Column: “The more the merrier?”

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BEST PICTURE
1 “Invictus”
Warner Bros. Pictures
2 “Nine”
The Weinstein Company
3 “Precious”
Lionsgate Films
4 “Amelia”
Fox Searchlight Pictures
5 “Bright Star”
Unnamed Bob Berney/Bill Polhad Company
6 “The Lovely Bones”
Paramount Pictures
NEW
7 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures
NEW
8 “The Hurt Locker”
Summit Entertainment
NEW
9 “Avatar”
20th Century Fox
down
10 “An Education”
Sony Pictures Classics
NEW
11 “The Informant”
Warner Bros. Pictures
down
12 “Star Trek”
Paramount Pictures
NEW
13 “Public Enemies”
Universal Pictures
down
14 “The Road”
The Weinstein Company
NEW
15 “Funny People”
Universal Pictures
NEW
16 “Green Zone”
Universal Pictures
down
17 “Shutter Island”
Paramount Pictures
down
18 “Up in the Air”
Paramount Pictures
NEW
19 “A Serious Man”
Focus Features
NEW
20 “Where the Wild Things Are”
Warner Bros. Pictures
NEW

DIRECTING
1 Clint Eastwood
“Invictus”
2 Rob Marshall
“Nine”
3 Lee Daniels
“Precious”
4 Jane Campion
“Bright Star”
5 Kathryn Bigelow
“The Hurt Locker”
up
6 Peter Jackson
“The Lovely Bones”
NEW
7 Mira Nair
“Amelia”
down
8 Steven Soderbergh
“The Informant”
9 James Cameron
“Avatar”
down
10 Lone Scherfig
“An Education”
NEW

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Morgan Freeman
“Invictus”
2 Daniel Day-Lewis
“Nine”
3 Matt Damon
“The Informant” (or “Green Zone”)
4 Jeremy Renner
“The Hurt Locker”
up
5 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road”
up
6 Johnny Depp
“Public Enemies”
7 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Shutter Island”
down
8 Ben Wishaw
“Bright Star”
down
9 George Clooney
“Up in the Air” (or “Men Who Stare at Goats”)
down
10 Peter Sarsgaard
“An Education”
NEW

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Hilary Swank
“Amelia”
2 Carey Mulligan
“An Education”
3 Meryl Streep
“Julie & Julia”
NEW
4 Abbie Cornish
“Bright Star”
down
5 Saoirse Ronan
“The Lovely Bones”
up
6 Penélope Cruz
“Broken Embraces”
down
7 Gabourey Sidibe
“Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”
down
8 Shohreh Aghdashloo
“The Stoning of Soraya M.”
NEW
9 Michelle Pfeiffer
“Chéri”
down
10 Audrey Tautou
“Coco avant Chanel”

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Matt Damon
“Invictus”
2 Richard Kind
“A Serious Man”
3 Christoph Waltz
“Inglourious Basterds”
up
4 Richard Gere
“Amelia” (or “Brooklyn’s Finest”)
NEW
5 Alfred Molina
“An Education”
up
6 Stanley Tucci
“The Lovely Bones”
NEW
7 Anthony Mackie
“The Hurt Locker”
down
8 Paul Schnedier
“Bright Star”
NEW
9 Tobey Maguire
“Brothers”
up
10 Kodi Scott-McPhee
“The Road”
NEW

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Mo’nique
“Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire”
2 Judi Dench
“Nine”
3 Leslie Mann
“Funny People”
up
4 Emily Mortimer
“Shutter Island”
5 Penélope Cruz
“Nine”
6 Michelle Williams
“Shutter Island”
7 Marion Cotillard
“Public Enemies” (or “Nine”)
up
9 Rachel Weisz
“The Lovely Bones”
up
10 Kathy Bates
“Chéri”
down

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Precious”
Written by Damien Paul
Based on the novel “Push” by Sapphire
2 “An Education”
Written by Nick Hornby
Based on the memoir by Lynn Barber
3 “Nine”
Written by Michael Tolkin, Anthony Minghella
Based on the novel by Arthur L. Kopit
4 “The Lovely Bones”
Written by Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh
Based on the novel by Alice Sebold
up
5 “Up in the Air”
Written by Jason Reitman
Based on the novel by Walter Kirn
6 “Invictus”
Written by Anthony Peckham
Based on the book “Playing the Enemy” by John Carlin
7 “The Informant”
Written by Scott Z. Burns
Based on the book by Kurt Eichenwald
NEW
8 “Amelia”
Written by Ronald Bass
Source material to be determined
up
9 “Shutter Island”
Written by Laeta Kalogridis
Based on the novel by Dennis Lehane
down
10 “Public Enemies”
Written by Ronan Bennett, Ann Biderman, Michael Mann
Based on the book “Public Enemies: America’s Greatest Crime Wave and the Birth of the FBI, 1933-34 ” by Bryan Burrough

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Bright Star”
Written by Jane Campion
2 “Up”
Written by Bob Peterson
3 “A Serious Man”
Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
4 “Broken Embraces”
Written by Pedro Almodóvar
5 “The Hurt Locker”
Written by Mark Boal
up
6 “Funny People”
Written by Judd Apatow
7 “The Boat That Rocked”
Written by Richard Curtis
8 “(500) Days of Summer”
Written by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
10 “Avatar”
Written by James Cameron
NEW

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “Up”
Walt Disney Pictures
3 “Coraline”
Focus Features
up
3 “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
20th Century Fox
up
4 “Ponyo”
Walt Disney Pictures
down
5 “Monsters vs. Aliens”
DreamWorks SKG
down
6 “The Princess and the Frog”
Walt Disney Pictures
down
7 “A Christmas Carol”
Walt Disney Pictures
8 “9”
Focus Features
9 “Planet 51”
Sony Pictures
NEW
10 “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs”
20th Century Fox
down