OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — May 1, 2008

NUTSHELL: Beyond a few tweaks, there isn’t much to write home about with this update. There are as many reasons for or against a number of contenders throughout, though it’s all simple guesswork until we get into the fall. Oliver Stone’s “W” makes an appearance in the form of Josh Brolin’s lead performance possibilities, now that the director has announced his intentions to release the film before the current administration exits the White House. But that’s the only real “news” of the past two and a half months. We’ll let the charts settle until August or September.

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
2 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
3 “The Soloist”
DreamWorks SKG
4 “Doubt”
Miramax Films
5 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
6 “Milk”
Focus Features
7 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
up
8 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
up
9 “Body of Lies”
Warner Bros. Pictures
down
10 “The Argentine”/“Guerrilla”
Focus Features

DIRECTING
1 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
2 Joe Wright
“The Soloist”
3 David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
4 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
5 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
down
6 John Patrick Shanley
“Doubt”
7 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
up
8 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
up
9 Ridley Scott
“Body of Lies”
down
10 Steven Soderbergh
“The Argentine” (or “Guerrilla”)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
2 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”
3 Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine” (or “Guerrilla”)
up
4 Sean Penn
“Milk”
down
5 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (or “Burn After Reading”)
6 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
7 Phillip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
NEW
8 Josh Brolin
“W”
NEW
9 Hugh Jackman
“Australia”
down
10 Will Smith
“Seven Pounds”
down

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Meryl Streep
“Doubt”
2 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
3 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
4 Julianne Moore
“Blindness” (or “Savage Grace”)
up
5 Anne Hathaway
“Dancing with Shiva”
NEW
6 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
7 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
NEW
8 Kate Beckinsale
“Nothing But the Truth”
NEW
9 Drew Barrymore
“Grey Gardens”
NEW
10 Penélope Cruz
“Elegy” (or “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)
down

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”
3 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
4 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Soloist” (or “Tropic Thunder”)
5 Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”
6 James Franco
“Pineapple Express” (or “Milk”)
NEW
6 John Malkovich
“Changeling” (or “Burn After Reading”)
up
7 Demian Bechir
“The Argentine” (or “Guerrilla”)
NEW
8 Alan Alda
“Nothing But the Truth”
NEW
9 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
NEW

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
2 Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”
up
3 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
NEW
4 Samantha Morton
“Synecdoche, New York”
up
5 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
down
6 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
NEW
7 Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”
down
8 Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”
down
9 Renée Zellweger
“Appaloosa”
down
10 Rachel Weisz
“The Brothers Bloom”
NEW

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
2 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the novel by Richard Yates
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Written by Eric roth
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
4 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
5 “Body of Lies”
Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian
Based on the book by David Ignatius
6 “Blindness”
Written by Don McKellar
Based on the novel by José Saramago
7 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Shlink
8 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
9 “Appaloosa”
Written by Ed Harris, Robert Knott
Based on the book by Robert B. Parker
up
10 “Miracle at St. Anna”
Written by James McBride
Based on his novel
NEW

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “The Soloist”
Written by Susannah Grant
2 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
3 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
NEW
4 “Wall-E”
Written by Andrew Stanton
down
5 “Hamlet 2”
Written by Pam Brady, Andrew Fleming
6 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Bettie, Ronald Harwood, Baz Luhrmann
7 “Synecdoche, New York”
Written by Charlie Kaufman
8 “Seven Pounds”
Written by Grant Nieporte
9 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
down
10 “The Argentine”/”Guerrilla”
Written by Peter Buchman

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “Wall-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
3 “9”
Focus Features
4 “Coraline”
Focus Features
NEW
5 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
NEW
6 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
down
7 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
down
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
NEW
9 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures
NEW
10 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
down