In Contention

Category: Friday Forecast

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: End of the Road

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s the last full weekend of the summer, the last weekend of me being 27, and the last weekend for Friday Forecast on InContention. A time of introspection. A time of reflection. A time of paying another $20 to see those blue things in 3D again. I can’t wait to not see it again… for the first time.

    The dog days of August are notoriously tough on the multiplex as kids start heading back to school so don’t expect any Oscar nominations for this week’s crop of films. Leading the pack is “The Last Exorcism” from Lionsgate. This could be the first time in that company’s history that one of its films takes the top spot away from another one of its films. A low budget faux-documentary, Lionsgate picked up distribution rights and has sold it fantastically with sharp trailers and posters.

    Exorcism is a foolproof box office meme, with Sony able to milk a $37.3 million debut for “The Exorcism of Emily Rose” in September 2005. That film had some movie stars and a true story hook, while Lionsgate is definitely no Sony, but we should still be looking at a strong opening for the film. Something like $18 million, but if Lionsgate can get some stories printed about audience members puking, then you can bump that up to $22 million.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Stop giving Friedberg & Seltzer your money!

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Alright guys. Enough is enough. The only thing less funny than a spoof movie made by Friedberg & Seltzer is the conceptual gag that America keeps playing where we ironically buy tickets to see them. Just to make fun of it, of course. Only problem is we’re giving them real money and they are super rich and successful, despite being the worst thing to happen to filmmaking since, well, ever.

    “Vampires Suck” leads a gaggle of new releases this week and it’s actually already been out since Wednesday. The beyond tired spoof racked up $6.4 million in two days and should be on course for another $14 or $15 million during the weekend. The last time these two got behind a camera was “Disaster Movie,” which epic failed at the end of summer 2008 and gave hope that these clowns would never work again. But that film was their only one released by Lionsgate, not Fox, and they didn’t know how to market the gold placed in their hands.

    Focusing on the biggest phenomenon in film isn’t a bad idea either to get back on track. Congratulations America. You’ve made a scene where something large falls out of the sky and lands on the Old Spice Guy on a horse a part of cinema box office history (note: I have not seen “Vampires Suck” but I’ll eat my hat if that scene isn’t in it).

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Nerdgasm!

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    If you are a nerd, this is the weekend for you. It doesn’t matter if you’re an action movie nerd, video game nerd or self-help nerd, Hollywood has you covered. All in all, it’s an abnormally stacked August weekend with three films that all have breakout potential and is especially baffling when you look at the shitshow of titles nobody cares about just seven days away.

    Of the three openers, Lionsgate is going the widest with “The Expendables.” First off, no matter what happens, this will be profitable for the studio since they just bought the distribution rights from Millennium Films, who actually financed the thing. Lionsgate pulled a similar move with “Rambo” and saw that film open with $20.1 million and tap out at $47.3 million. For an ultra-violent sequel to a franchise dead longer than most of our readers have been alive, all were pretty satisfied.

    Expectations are amped up for “The Expendables,” since a bunch of other old guys with muscles are in it. Count me among those not buying the hype that Steve Austin, Terry Crews and Dolph Lundgren add significant interest among any crowd of patrons. Cameos from Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis have been shamefully advertised and that will dupe a few old timers into thinking there’s something special here, but that trio didn’t really help Planet Hollywood from epic failing. I think a strong Friday will lead to a $32 million weekend and it free falls from there.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Reigning ‘Cats & Dogs?’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Hey kids! How about that terrifying photo to the right? Make you want to see cats and dogs brutally fighting to the death voiced by Nick Nolte and Joe Pantoliano? While Chris O’Donnell looks on confused? Of course it does. We’ve got three new releases this week but are probably looking at a third straight week at the top for “Inception.”

    “Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore” is probably a half decade too late to capitalize on any good will the audience had for the original (a $131 million grossing summer surprise). Warner Bros. has even wisely lopped off the number two from the title since what few fans there are will know and anyone else might just think it’s a family film with a cool concept. They’ve also given it a hefty 3,700 screen count.

    Here’s the thing though. With “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” being the only exception, talking animal movies have terrible drop offs from the original to the sequel. “Babe,” “Garfield” and “Stuart Little” can all attest. With so much time in between films here, and the almost identical “G-Force” less than a year old, it seems like these cats and dogs are headed for the same pile. I think $17 million is the best they can hope for.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Pass the ‘Salt’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Laziest headline ever? It’s that kind of Friday folks.

    Hey boys! Anything you can do, Angelina Jolie can make look sexier and she’s here to prove it with “Salt.” Originally a vehicle for Tom Cruise, Jolie stepped in and is literally the only woman in Hollywood who can have action scripts rewritten and re-gendered to fit her interest. She’s also the only woman in Hollywood who is currently sleeping with Brad Pitt, so let me just add this up; Angelina Jolie-2, every other woman in Hollywood-0.

    This clout came from solid performances for “Lara Croft: Tomb Raider,” “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” and “Wanted.” The last of which opened to a very strong and surprising $56.4 million back in 2008. Sure, it was based on a comic book and had other recognizable faces in it, but the marketing really didn’t have much going for it other than the promise of Jolie shooting ridiculous weapons and leaning out of cars.

    She’s had less success when dipping into dramatic territory, with “Changeling” and “A Mighty Heart” earning her rave reviews but fizzling at the box office. Nobody wants to see those hit lips quivering like a victim. We want to see fights and just enough skin to warrant a PG-13 rating!

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Celebrity ‘Apprentice’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Hey gang, it’s the weekend we’ve all been waiting for. “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice” finally opens and satisfies our bloodlust for not one, but two fantasy collaborations between the Walt Disney company and Jerry Bruckheimer per summer. Perhaps only Pixar can rival their impressive streak of quality entertainment which includes “G-Force,” “Coyote Ugly” and “Bad Company.” More like good company!

    Nicolas Cage teams with the two of them for the seventh time and the hope is obviously to pull in “National Treasure” numbers. Actually, all six previous collaborations have earned over $125 million, so they obviously bring out the best in each other. Unfortunately, “National Treasure” looked brisk and fun while “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice” looks dark and muddled.

    The film already opened on Wednesday and earned $7 million in its first two days. Not looking good for the old Cagester and Bruckmeister as the weekend should only muster another $18 million or so, becoming yet another summer title reliant on international grosses to make a profit. Maybe Jerry will have to stick to TV producing where he lords over, at my last count, 361 crime or detective shows. And at least Cage is shrewd with his money. Oh wait.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: I ain’t got time to bleed

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Summer keeps puttering along and based on the reaction to Kris’s multiple posts on the subject, we’re all just biding our time until “Inception” comes out. I knew people wanted to see it, but I can’t remember the last time people were refreshing their browsers to see a couple of reviews.

    Nolan’s latest is still a week away though, and we have other business to cover. Mainly, some weird cartoon and the re-imagining of an 80’s action classic. Weeks ago I had this pegged as an easy weekend for “Predators” to win, but Fox has lowballed the screen count and skimped on the marketing for what should have been a no-brainer. So, let’s start with “Despicable Me.”

    Universal has released a grand total of two computer animated films before this week. The first was the $14.4 million grossing Veggie Tales movie, “The Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything”, which I didn’t see because I think Christian vegetables are weird, but still think it’s one of the best titles of all time. Their second release was the $56.3 million wonder, “The Tale of Despereaux.”

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Vampires and Shyamalan suck

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Are you guys seeing this Uruguay-Ghana game? Unbelievable finish. But it’s Independence Day weekend and we are supposed to be talking about all things American. Like sissy vampires and casting obviously foreign parts movies with good old white actors!

    The weekend will go long with most people getting Monday off and it’s actually already begun with “The Twilight Saga: Eclipse” opening on Wednesday and “The Last Airbender” debuting yesterday. Let’s start with the record breaker. The latest installment of Stephanie Meyer’s abstinence trilogy debuted on the largest number of screens ever, only nineteen months after the first film came out and shocked the industry. It earned $30 million in midnight screenings alone and chalked up a $68.5 million opening day.

    That’s the fourth biggest single day gross in history and a little behind the all-time champ and previous “Twilight” entry, “New Moon” and its $76.0 million. Taking away the midnight rush, we’re looking at a Wednesday gross of $38.5 million for “Eclipse” and then a Thursday of $24.2 million. Definitely starting a slow slide, but not disastrous. Almost $100 million in the bank already and we have a long weekend ahead of us where “Eclipse” could feasibly earn another $100 million.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Things get Cruisazy!

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    This post is a little late so sorry if it’s brief. Turned out to be a very hectic Friday. I should have gone to a “Jonah Hex” screening for a little piece and solitude. Hey-oh!

    But seriously folks, we have two new releases to talk about, one of which has already been out for two days so let’s start there. Tom Cruise aims to repair his damaged reputation with the action/comedy/romance, “Knight and Day.” “Vanilla Sky” co-star Cameron Diaz has got his back and James Mangold directs. While the media likes to paint a grim picture of Cruise’s appeal, the simple box office facts are that the man has only had one miss to his name in recent years and that was “Lions for Lambs.”

    Given his supporting role and mutual star power coming from Robert Redford and Meryl Streep, we can go ahead and call it not Tom’s fault. “Mission: Impossible III” underwhelmed domestically but did just fine overseas. “War of the Worlds” was a mega-blockbuster, “Tropic Thunder” crossed $100 million with direct help from his buzz-worthy cameo and “Valkyrie” came close to the same mark in a crowded Christmas market with less than stellar reviews.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Toys!

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Let’s be honest here. Everybody likes toys. Everybody likes Pixar movies. Everybody likes Tim Allen. These three pillars of civilization will ensure that “Toy Story 3” has a gigantic opening weekend and ignites the box office in ways that will make Jaden Smith look like “Marmaduke.”

    It was fifteen years ago when “Toy Story” opened at the Thanksgiving box office and recorded a $53.3 million opening. Essentially beginning a new era of family film, the well-reviewed, Oscar nominated picture went on to gross $348.8 million and become the highest grossing film of 1995.

    Four years later, a sequel intended to go straight to DVD instead came out in theaters and earned $89.8 million on opening weekend. Reviews were sensational, instantly becoming one of the most beloved sequels of all time and a final gross of $380.3 million makes it still the second biggest Pixar film ever.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Hey, remember the 80s?

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    A thousand apologies for being off the grid for a little over a week. I was in Germany for a screening of my film and was happily without internet or phone for most of the trip. Sadly, I returned to the news that “Shrek Forever After” was still the number one movie in the States. Honestly, I can’t leave you people alone for a minute.

    Last week’s slate was always going to be a crop of modest performers but this week is a little different. Hollywood double dips into the 80s nostalgia well and at least one of the films carries a very high price tag that will need some juice to be recouped.

    But first let’s talk about “The Karate Kid.” Some ultra nerds have been complaining that it’s false advertising because Jackie Chan actually teaches Kung Fu this time, but if that was really an issue then the original would have been called “The Karate Man,” since I’m pretty sure Ralph Macchio was 35 when it came out. Regardless, Sony is hoping to gain kids with the PG rating and pre-teen protagonist, teens with the martial arts and Jackie Chan, and finally adults with nostalgia. Test screenings went extremely well (so says Sony) and I think the film could surprise with a $30 million weekend.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Disrespect the Middle East edition

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    There’s a mild controversy every time a “Sex and the City” movie comes out where it is mercilessly trashed for existing by male critics who, the accusation goes, often let comparable trash starring men get off easy. Well, you all know that I can not be labeled one who lets any trash off easy so I have free reign to say that anyone who looks up to the women in this movie is probably a terrible person and I weep for humanity that this will be another big hit for Warner Bros.

    “Sex and the City 2” has already opened and earned $14.2 million yesterday. Is that good? Yes. Is it great? No. The first film made $29.6 million on its opening day, albeit being a regular Friday and then dropped drastically to record a weekend tally of $63.2 million. As far as opening days being front-loaded in a weekend, “Sex and the City” is one of the top 15 worst offenders ever and sequels tend to be even worse. But since it’s just a Thursday, no need to panic yet.

    I suspect the film will pick up slightly to around $18 million on Friday and then record around $45 million for the weekend, before adding another cool $8 or $9 million on Monday. All told that will be close to $70 million in five days and set the film up for a profitable run. For some reason, the original was enormous overseas and that should again be the case. But seriously ladies, have some self respect and put your considerable weight (bad choice of word?) as a consumer behind something that doesn’t make you look like a worthless idiot.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Is it ogre yet?

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    That fat, green face to the right is the most successful animated character in the history of film. You guys have made him an icon of cinema greater than Don Corleone, Marty McFly and Jack Sparrow as far as box office receipts are concerned. Whatever hilarious adventure he undertakes with his wise-cracking donkey sidekick, you are game for. His latest batch of hijinks comes with the laziest pun title ever and a general feeling of distaste from the third installment.

    “Shrek Forever After” is the big debut this week and will easily win the weekend. There hasn’t been a big family film released in eight weeks (Sorry Brendan Fraser) and the market is ripe for a new blockbuster. The thing is opening in every theater across the country with 3D prices ballooning up to $20 in some places. All the ingredients are there for the film to best the $140.5 million opening of “Shrek the Third.” Except that people generally thought “Shrek the Third” was terrible. How these discerning viewers found anything different at all from film to film in this series is beyond me, but I gave up after the wretched first so what do I know?

    Any time a franchise entry disappoints, the next film takes a hit and so I’m thinking that “Shrek Forever After” will hover around the $100 million mark for the weekend. Could do $95 million or could do $105 million, but nowhere near that $140.5 million. Regardless, the film will make oodles of money for DreamWorks and Mike Myers will continue to confuse doing a Scottish accent for funny in more films.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Robin’ of schlocksley

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Fresh off a tepid debut at Cannes, Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe have unleashed their fifth collaboration upon the world. Forget Scorsese and DiCaprio, these guys are taking actor-director bromance to another level. Together, they’ve given us Oscar winning hits (“Gladiator”), non-Oscar winning hits (“American Gangster”) and non-Oscar winning non-hits (“A Good Year” and “Body of Lies”). Which category will “Robin Hood” fall under?

    The one comparison everybody can’t stop making is to “Gladiator” so let’s start there. The sword and sandals epic also launched in May, of 2000, and slashed up a $51.4 million debut. That was at the very beginning of May with no other summer movies out in competition it should be noted. Both director and star have become much more prolific and popular since then so maybe we should assume that “Robin Hood” could do a little better.

    Not so fast! Medieval/historical epics have had a torrid last few years at the box office. Scott’s own “Kingdom of Heaven” was supposed to kick off the 2006 summer season with a bang but only managed a $24.4 million debut and $58.8 million finish. Oliver Stone gave it the old college try with “Alexander” and found $17.5 million to start en route to a $43.9 million total. Granted, people hated that thing.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Babies’!

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The babies are finally here guys! You’ve oohed and ahhed at penguins and oceans and Michael Moore, but this documentary finally gives you the chance to ooh and ahh at humans. Specifically, little ones. There’s also a silly sounding movie about a man who wears a suit made of armor, but it’s not even set in medieval times. He also fights some Russian villain, but it’s not even set in Cold War times.

    Most importantly, it’s officially summer according to Hollywood! Go to the beach, confess your love to your crush and cash in those time shares people!

    “Iron Man 2” is opening in 4,380 theaters today. That’s the biggest number for a debuting film in history. The first film in the franchise kicked off the 2008 summer season with a $109.2 million debut, en route to a fantastic $352.6 million total, earning more than supposed-summer titan “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” in the process. As far as sequels go, you can add as many stars, villains, explosions and cameos that you want but the most potent weapon in your arsenal will always be the popularity of the original, and “Iron Man” was extremely popular. An improved debut figure is a virtual certainty but the all time record of $175.4 million for “The Dark Knight” is probably safe.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Your worst ‘Nightmare’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The summer movie season doesn’t officially start until next weekend, but Warner Bros. aims to get a jump on things by releasing their high profile horror remake, “A Nightmare on Elm Street” before the storm. By all accounts, it should work, as horror audiences have proven time and again that they’ll fork over their money to see any movie they previously liked redone with slightly darker lighting, slightly less imagination and infinitely more budget money.

    I once thought that this particular remake was doomed because unlike the Jason or Halloween franchises, the iconic central character was tied to one actor and fickle audiences might not respond to any recasting. Of course, this was ridiculous thinking on my part and this film will be bigger than either of those other reboots. At least on opening weekend. “Friday the 13th” made $41.4 million on its opening weekend last year, with the help of Monday being a holiday and I think we can look for something similar here. And hundreds of lazy hipsters who already own striped red sweaters have locked down their Halloween costumes.

    I think the next horror flick to get a remake should be “April Fool’s Day.” That thing scared the crap out of me when I was a kid. Or “The Peanut Butter Solution,” which isn’t a horror film but something that still haunts me to this day. His hair just grows and grows!

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: A bunch of ‘Losers’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Jennifer Lopez hasn’t been on screen since “El Cantante” in 2007 and hasn’t toplined a romantic comedy since “Monster-in-Law” in 2005. That’s a long, five year gap and it’s no surprise that J. Lo is returning to the only genre that has brought her success to make a comeback. Unless you count “Anaconda,” which I don’t, because obviously, the real star of that movie was Owen Wilson.

    But now she’s back with “The Back Up Plan,” a hilarious comedy about first dates and due dates. And kooky lesbians having natural birth parties and playing bongos. Lopez will get no help courting audiences from her male co-star, who is completely unknown to anyone who isn’t an enormous fan of “Whiteout” or “The Invisible.”

    She is getting a lot of help from CBS Films, who are promoting the living piss out of the movie, despite seeing no return for similar efforts with “Extraordinary Measures.” The trailers are weak, the premise is ridiculous and the leading actress is on the decline. So why do I get a horrible feeling that this will actually do alright? The market is a wasteland at the moment and romantic comedies are nowhere to be found so I think this one may walk away with $11 million or so.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Ass’ vs. crass

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Ever since it unveiled footage at Comic-Con last year, fanboys and internet hounds have been frothing at the mouth for Matthew Vaughn’s “Kick Ass” and now it has finally arrived. Internet buzz is deafening, but also misleading as it’s never quite clear whether we are looking at a “300” or a “Snakes on a Plane.” Lionsgate doesn’t have a whole lot at stake, picking up distribution rights after the film was nearly complete and only really needs to recoup their marketing costs, which still seem to be a pretty penny.

    The R-rating and the lack of a huge studio behind it limits the potential, as does the fact that it celebrates children inflicting violence. Of course that’s also the very thing that makes it so appealing to the target audience. So if you think that above photo is awesome and totally subversive, then you’ve probably already bought your ticket. I think there will be roughly $23 million worth of you.

    Fresh off of remaking Eric Rohmer, Chris Rock takes on Frank Oz. That transition is only natural. “Death at a Funeral” only came out two and a half years ago, but that version didn’t have bloated Luke Wilson or bloated Martin Lawrence. For those that do need a sense of continuity, a non-bloated Peter Dinklage returns.

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