In Contention

Category: Friday Forecast

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Save the ‘Date’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The one and only new studio release this weekend is “Date Night” from Fox. The film stars Steve Carell and Tina Fey, who both have legions of fans from their Thursday night NBC television shows, and a number of decent box office hits under their belt as well. Still, it’s always a bit of a risk asking audiences to pay $10 for a pairing that they more or less see every week at home for free. Granted, here they are together, but there needs to be a little more to it. The concept here is standard paper-thin studio comedy fare and I’m a little surprised at the way this has been marketed.

    Action/comedies/romances can really strike a chord with audiences of all ages, as seen with Fox’s own “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” but the studio seems to be content purely selling this as a comedy. The posters are a snooze and the trailers only half-heartedly advertise the amazing supporting cast, which includes Mark Wahlberg, James Franco and Mila Kunis.

    But again, the posters only want you to know that Steve Carell and Tina Fey are in a movie together and you should see it. I can’t help but see missed opportunity all over this thing and a $30 million debut is about the best it can hope for. $25 million might be more like the final result though, which wouldn’t even match the $29.9 million April 2004 debut of “Mean Girls.” Incidentally, if you want to see a date movie but think Shawn Levy is an artistic void, check out “Luke and Brie Are on a First Date,” now streaming for free on Babelgum. And that’s the last plug I’ll ever do, I swear.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Dragon’ art

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Years of frustration over how to precisely train my dragon will be resolved today as Paramount has released the informative documentary, “How to Train Your Dragon.” There’s one of these bawdy animated titles every March and they usually do pretty damn well. “Monsters vs. Aliens” debuted with $60.5 million last year and “Horton Hears a Who!” snagged $47.7 million the year before.

    I think “Dragon” will fall closer to the latter than the former since it has no famous source material and failed to put the one word in its title that would have excited young boys:  Vikings! Hello? Who makes an animated movie about Vikings and doesn’t put that in the title? It’s like naming “Toy Story” “Escape From the Room.”

    Now, the movie is in 3D and on over 4,000 screens so it’s almost impossible for it not to be huge. I’m just thinking somewhere around $45 million for this one.

    The only other movie opening wide is “Hot Tub Time Machine” from MGM. The studio hasn’t released a movie since “Fame” and is more or less dead and bankrupt. They’d like you to think that this is the new “The Hangover,” but the concept is way more wacky and esoteric.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Bounty’ soft

    Gerard Butler in The Bounty Hunter*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Forgive me if this entry seems a little rushed, but I’ve been flying most of the day and detoxing from South by Southwest. It was my first time attending since 2006 and the growth in scope, prestige and attendance since then was staggering. The quality and selection of films, however, has not suffered and there remains no better film festival in the United States to see unique, low budget independent films that may or may not make it to your local multiplex. “Cold Weather,” “Passenger Pigeons,” “Putty Hill,” “The Myth of the American Sleepover” and “Tiny Furniture” are just a few that you should keep your eyes on.

    But enough about those itty bitty movies nobody cares about. How about “The Bounty Hunter?” Starring the only Friend to successfully craft a big screen career out of that small screen sensation and some Irish bloke that seems to really get off on playing chauvinists. And why not, since in Hollywood they get to treat the girl like shit and still win her in the end. One of three films coming out in the next few months with a hapless woman thrust together with a man of action (“Killers” and “Knight & Day” being the others), Sony was smart to push this one out first and should see something around $20 million for their troubles.

    Fox adapts a famous (so I’ve heard) series of young adult books with “Diary of a Wimpy Kid” and I heard it pitched as a PG-rated “Superbad” for middle schoolers. Truth be told, I think it actually looks pretty good and with no major kids product out there it may have a chance at some success. Unless it comes off as too raunchy for kids and too immature for teens and then Fox will be in trouble. I think it can give America $13 million worth of wedgies.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Lean ‘Zone’

    Matt Damon in Green Zone*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass return to the screen this week with their third collaboration and first outside of the Jason Bourne series. That particular franchise has done wonders for the careers of both men, particularly Greengrass, who won an Oscar nomination for “United 93,” but didn’t exactly see the film break the bank. Damon too, was just recognized by the Academy but had one of his leanest box office years on record with the stuttering “The Informant!” and “Invictus.”

    So here they stand with “Green Zone,” a stylistic twin to their bread and butter series. Universal is doing everything they possibly can to pretend this is just another Bourne film and has absolutely nothing to do with Iraq. “The Bourne Supremacy” debuted with $64.4 million en route to a $216.0 million finish. “The Bourne Ultimatum” did even better with a $76.6 million start and $251.6 million total. Compare that to the $14.7 million of “The Hurt Locker.” The best the Iraq War has ever done at the box office is the $52.6 million of “The Kingdom.” The only thing more poisonous at the box office than Iraq is Eddie Murphy. Hey-Oh! I think we’re looking at a subdued $18 million debut here.

    “She’s Out of My League” takes the subtext of every Judd Apatow produced comedy and makes it the whole plot. Ugly funny dude lands a boring hot chick and hopefully we all get a couple chuckles out of it. This is obviously trying to be for Jay Baruchel what “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” was for Jason Segal but I’m afraid that film’s $18.8 million debut will be out its league. Double digits will be a good result at this point so I’m saying $10 million.
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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Alice’ super

    Mia Wasikowska in Alice in Wonderland*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Hot on the heels of “Avatar” crossing the $700 million mark to way less fanfare than I would have thought that would warrant six months ago, 2010 unleashes its very first 3D blockbuster.

    Everything about Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” screams smash hit and despite looking completely unappealing in every way to yours truly, it will no doubt break some box office records this weekend. Namely, the all-time biggest March debut currently held by the $78.4 million of “300.”

    How much higher can it go?

    Well, I think it’s safe to say that Burton’s personal best, the $92.1 million start for “Planet of the Apes,” is out of reach, but stranger things have happened. Like “Planet of the Apes” grossing $92.1 million for instance. Between the Disney brand, the 3D gimmick, Burton’s cache and Johnny Depp’s star power, every demographic is being reached and with competition non-existent, things are looking very good. I’m going to say $82 million.
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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Cop’ and a laugh

    (from left) Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis in Cop Out*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s the last full weekend before the Oscars. Have you seen all the nominees yet? I sure haven’t. In fact, there isn’t a single category where I’ve seen every film and can have an educated opinion. That’s not likely to change before the big day since I’ve been happy to put the 2009 movie-going year to bed for a while.

    There’s plenty of new joy to be found! Like “Cop Out,” the first big budget studio outing from Kevin Smith. Primarily known as the guy behind a bunch of movies your college roommate likes, he is notably absent from all press materials for the Bruce Willis/Tracy Morgan buddy flick.

    Willis typically can’t open straight-forward action films to very much, unless they have the words “Die” and “Hard” in them. Recent run-of-the-mill efforts include “Surrogates” ($15.2 million), “16 Blocks” ($13.8 million) and “Hostage” ($12.1 million).

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Shutter’ to sink?

    (from left) Ben Kingsley and Leonardo DiCaprio in Shutter Island*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s been a long time coming but “Shutter Island” finally hits screens this weekend, with no competition in sight. That’s right, Scorsese gets the weekend all to himself and his genre exercise, which is opening on just under 3,000 screens. The man is viewed as something of a deity, particularly on sites like this, and his fanbase clearly spans over more than one generation. At age 60, his career took a turn towards the populist and there seems to be no looking back. “Shutter Island” should be able to straddle the line between snobs and laymen, men and women and teens and adults. Sounds like a winning combination.

    “The Departed” opened to $31 million in 2006 and is Scorsese’s highest grossing film, along with the reason he has an Oscar on his mantle. Picking up a lifetime achievement gong at the Golden Globes last month is just another reason why his profile has never been higher across the country. His last attempt at this type of film was 1991’s “Cape Fear,” which opened with $18.5 million en route to a $143.6 million finish, and that’s certainly not out of reach here, although I’d say it’s unlikely. I’ll say $33 million for the weekend and then it’ll need strong word of mouth to hit $100 million.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Valentine’s Day’ love fest

    Benicio Del Toro in The Wolfman*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Sorry this is late folks. I can remember all the words to “Teenage Dirtbag” by Wheatus without hearing it for five years but I can’t seem to remember to write this column every week.

    Anyway, it’s a big weekend. President’s Day means it’s a four-day tally and Sunday being Valentine’s Day means certain titles have a leg up. One such title is “Valentine’s Day,” starring at least one person you, your sister, your mother and your grandmother really like. The 75-year-old man who directed “Pretty Woman” is putting it all together and there’s really no stopping it.

    “50 First Dates” managed $55 million from the four-day weekend in 2004 and I’d say only the overachieving debut of “Dear John” will keep this lower. Give it $50 million for four days and $43 million for the three days.

    “The Wolfman” once seemed like a hot commodity. Mark Romanek was an inspired directing choice and Benicio Del Toro’s casting saved the production millions in makeup costs. But Romanek got replaced with Joe Johnston, the release date got delayed a couple times and the whole thing now looks like a giant turd. Still, enough people may be interested in some cheap thrills to get it to $27 million for the three days and $33 million for the long weekend.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: 72 degrees and ‘Avatar’

    John Travolta in From Paris with Love*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    “Avatar” has swept aside the entire January schedule with relative ease and is aiming for an eighth weekend at the top of the box office. Considering it dropped only 10% last week despite some direct male competition from Mel Gibson and it now has 9 Oscar nominations to brag about, you can expect another slim decline and $25 million+. That should be more than enough to secure victory against Channing Tatum and John Travolta.

    Tatum headlines “Dear John” with Amanda Seyfried, from the author of “The Notebook.” It’s a date movie for the date crowd and hey, did we mention it’s from the author of “The Notebook?” The premise sounds like a 1940s film, writing letters to a soldier and all. Shouldn’t the title be “New Facebook Message, RE: Miss U Lots xo <3?” Anyway, that very fact mixed with the cast should satisfy women of all ages and help this one to $21 million or so.

    The director of “Taken” is back and blowing more shit up with “From Paris With Love.” There are three reasons why this won’t be as successful. One: Mel Gibson’s movie may not have done well but it’s still out and still direct competition. Two: Lionsgate is releasing and there is a ceiling to what they can accomplish with an action film ($18 million). Three: Liam Neeson looked all sorts of badass in the “Taken” trailer. In this, John Travolta looks like the bouncer at the Jackhammer gay club in Tribeca. $13 million.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: The awful ‘Tooth’

    Duane Johnson in Tooth Fairy*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Here we go again. There’s very little reason to think that “Avatar” won’t spend a sixth consecutive weekend at the top of the box office. No film has done that since “Titanic” and only three have done it since 1988. It’s just not possible these days. But here we stand.

    While the Golden Globes did little to make me think James Cameron wasn’t a total prick, it did help “Avatar” gain even more momentum during awards season and another $30 million+ weekend should be in store, taking the film past “The Dark Knight” on the all-time chart. Since that was one of the few blockbusters I could stomach, I’m sad to see it usurped so quickly.

    Second place will be a battle between two grown men with wings. One is playing it for laughs and the other is playing it for badass religious action. Did you catch the word that is box office poison in the last sentence? Actually, “Legion” has garnered a fair amount of decent buzz and Sony is better than anyone at turning these types of genre films into hits so that might balance out the R-word. I think a $16 million debut would be impressive and anything higher would be huge.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Blue boon

    Sam Worthington in Avatar*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s “Avatar” day people! The day some of us have been waiting for! The movie has been hyped for years and if you listen to the critics, James Cameron has delivered. The man has a pretty impeccable box office history and is belatedly coming off the highest grossing film of a generation.

    That would be the $921.5 million-grossing, 11 Academy Award-winning “Titanic” for anyone wondering. No matter what he made next, anticipation was going to be huge, but the non-stop chatter about “game-changing” and “brand new viewing experience” has made things reach a fever pitch.

    After the trailer debuted, I thought we were looking at an epic fail. I thought the effects looked crappy and the story looked stiff as a brick. I thought no one over the age of 40 would possibly be interested. Now that some people have actually laid eyes on it, it seems I’m in the extreme minority. This sucker is poised to make a lot of money.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Thanksgiving leftovers and new turkeys

    (from left) Kate Beckinsale and Robert De Niro in Everybody's Fine*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Sorry this is a little late, as I’ve been super busy this week. Luckily, it’s one of the slowest box office weeks of the year and there is little to look forward to.

    You can bet the farm that “The Blind Side” will win the weekend for the first time on its third try and continue it’s epic run towards $200 million. “The Twilight Saga: New Moon” should be your runner-up and it may get as low as five or six before you see a new film.

    Miramax is going for broke with the drama “Everybody’s Fine.” I thought the studio might start limited and try to trick people into thinking this would be one of those good, Oscar movies but they are sticking a Christmas tree on the poster and getting it into every Regal Cinemas in the country. Will it work? It should finish with $5 million for the weekend.

    In case you don’t know, the weekend after Thanksgiving is always deadly at the box office and studios rarely open worthwhile product. Last year gave us “Punisher: War Zone” at $4.3 million and the year before gave us “Awake” with $6.1 million. How someone pitched an action movie with a catatonic lead character and got it made is pretty incredible and beyond me.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Old Dogs,’ new pics

    (from left) Seth Green, John Travolta and Robin Williams in Old Dogs*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Happy Thanksgiving everyone. If you are like most of America, then you vaguely had an idea that some movies opened on Wednesday, you stuffed your face on Thursday and you will flock to the multiplex today. This five-day period is extremely lucrative for the box office in general but not always new releases, which will most certainly be the case this year as “The Twilight Saga: New Moon” should continue its dominance over the marketplace.

    The one studio who likes this frame more than any other is Walt Disney and it will be unleashing “Old Dogs” on unsuspecting audiences. Seven of the top 10 Thanksgiving weekend openers of all time belong to the Mouse House, including all-time champ “Toy Story 2,” which walked away with $81.1 million over just the three-day weekend in 1999. Most recently, the studio tipped its hat to the past and came away with $35.9 million for the three days in 2007 with “Enchanted.” Early word has “Old Dogs” earning around $3 million on Wednesday, which is surprisingly soft and could put it on course for an $18 million weekend and $25 million for the five days.

    Warner Bros. opens the mandatory action film for Dads in “Ninja Assassin” and early word had it making $3 million on Wednesday as well. The multiplier won’t be as good as it is for “Old Dogs” but it still could translate to $15 million for the three days and $22 million for five. That’s right in line with “Transporter 3” and “Hitman” and all the other terrible action films that have opened during Thanksgiving.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Bad ‘Moon’ rising

    Taylor Lautner in The Twilight Saga: New Moon*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s Edward and Bella’s world and we’re just living in it. The film to beat for the Holiday season is “The Twilight Saga: New Moon” and fans finally got their chance to lay eyes on it tonight at midnight. Twi-hards have been lining up and breaking advance ticket sales records on Fandango so there’s no question that the film will be big. But how big?

    The original film opened just 52 weeks ago and earned a surprisingly huge $69.6 million. Prognosticators knew that the book had fans but there was little evidence to suggest a figure that size, particularly because new distribution outfit Summit Entertainment was the studio putting it out. The $36 million it took in on opening day was the 17th biggest Friday ever and represented more than half of the weekend take. If the fanboy rush was that big for the original, you can imagine how frontloaded the sequel is going to be.

    Some sort of record will probably be broken this weekend as the film unloads on a massive 4,024 screens nationwide with round-the-clock showtimes. “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” is the current November opening weekend champ at $115 million and that isn’t totally out of the question. Neither is the $67.2 million opening day record by “The Dark Knight” completely safe, although I’m not quite bold enough to predict that big a Friday for Chriz Weitz’s film.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘2012’ on the way

    John Cusack in 2012*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    (This is the first of a new series of columns splitting the weekly Sunday Cents column in half. We’ll cover the weekend box office on Sundays and save the forecasts for Thursdays from here on out.)

    Roland Emmerich returns this weekend to popular landmark destruction for the fourth time in his career. He has experienced gargantuan openings in each previous attempts, so there’s little reason to think that “2012” won’t win the box office weekend by a mile.

    Sony has spent a fortune on the making and advertising of this film, although the studio seems to have saved some money by not hiring an editor as the finished product clocks in at a totally gratuitous 158 minutes. Squeezing in less showtimes may factor microscopically in the grosses, but theaters will be playing this sucker around the clock beginning tonight at midnight.

    “Independence Day” opened with $81.6 million during the fourth of July weekend in 1996 for a venue average of $28,311. “Godzilla” earned $67.4 million during Memorial Day of 1998 for an average of $20,373. “The Day After Tomorrow” also bowed on Memorial Day, in 2004. with $79.5 million and an average of $23,206. Clearly, audiences have a taste for the Emmerich touch when it comes to disaster flicks. His various attempts to make films outside this micro-genre have been met with relative shrugs at the box office (“The Patriot” and “10,000 B.C.”).

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