FRIDAY FORECAST: Vampires and Shyamalan suck

Posted by · 3:02 pm · July 2nd, 2010

*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

Are you guys seeing this Uruguay-Ghana game? Unbelievable finish. But it’s Independence Day weekend and we are supposed to be talking about all things American. Like sissy vampires and casting obviously foreign parts movies with good old white actors!

The weekend will go long with most people getting Monday off and it’s actually already begun with “The Twilight Saga: Eclipse” opening on Wednesday and “The Last Airbender” debuting yesterday. Let’s start with the record breaker. The latest installment of Stephanie Meyer’s abstinence trilogy debuted on the largest number of screens ever, only nineteen months after the first film came out and shocked the industry. It earned $30 million in midnight screenings alone and chalked up a $68.5 million opening day.

That’s the fourth biggest single day gross in history and a little behind the all-time champ and previous “Twilight” entry, “New Moon” and its $76.0 million. Taking away the midnight rush, we’re looking at a Wednesday gross of $38.5 million for “Eclipse” and then a Thursday of $24.2 million. Definitely starting a slow slide, but not disastrous. Almost $100 million in the bank already and we have a long weekend ahead of us where “Eclipse” could feasibly earn another $100 million.

When Supreme Court nominees are being asked if they are Team Jacob or Team Edward, it’s start to officially recognize a movie as being more than a fluke success or even just images on a screen. “Twilight” is a part of history now so if that kind of thing bothers you and you need to go sulk at your PS3 or vote it a sight-unseen 1 on IMDb, now’s a good time.

M. Night Shyamalan’s latest valiant attempt to earn the first negative rating on Rotten Tomatoes, “The Last Airbender” got off to a decent start yesterday. $16.4 million is actually in the top 30 ever for a Thursday gross and proves that there was an audience anticipating this thing. Word of mouth will no doubt be toxic and if it can earn $30 million for the weekend, it’ll have to be considered a small success. The budget was $150 million or so (white actors aren’t cheap ya’ll), and it will have to do well overseas to make any money.

What else is there to expect this weekend? I’d bank on “Toy Story 3” posting a good hold and possibly earning another $40 million. “Grown Ups” should fall around 40-45% while “Knight and Day” will have to hold up with a maximum drop around 40% to get itself out of the disappointment category. Incidentally, I walked in on ten minutes of “Grown Ups” and they were excruciating. When Colin Quinn is the funniest part, you know there’s serious trouble.

Also, special congratulations goes to “Jonah Hex,” which shred 2,475 theaters off of its screen count, the second largest figure ever behind “Meet Dave.”

What are you guys seeing this weekend?




→ 28 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Box Office · Friday Forecast

28 responses so far

  • 1 7-02-2010 at 3:24 pm

    grover said...

    “white actors aren’t cheap y’all”

    Best. quote. ever.

  • 2 7-02-2010 at 3:37 pm

    Joe W said...

    Probably be seeing Toy Story 3 again, or maybe Knight & Day. To hell with all the Tommy Cruise haters

  • 3 7-02-2010 at 3:50 pm

    James D. said...

    Colin Quinn is in Grown Ups? That almost makes me want to see it.

  • 4 7-02-2010 at 7:06 pm

    Hero said...

    I’ll admit it. I’ll be at Eclipse sometime this weekend.

  • 5 7-02-2010 at 7:50 pm

    George said...

    Off topic, but I just saw this on Twitter:

    devincf‎: At the bar with @mrbeaks. Trying to guess who hates INCEPTION from today’s screening. Guessing @kristapley.

  • 6 7-02-2010 at 8:00 pm

    Speaking English said...

    Why does everyone keep putting an ampersand in “Knight and Day?”

  • 7 7-02-2010 at 9:02 pm

    MovieMan said...

    “Eclipse” is superior to both “Twilight” and “New Moon”: handled with more thought, more depth, and less angst. The first hour is stunningly strong, enough to make it a genuinely good motion picture (a first in the series).

    “The Last Airbender” is a bunch of splendid CGI sequences with nothing underneath. Is it the worst film of the year? No, it isn’t. And as far as the two “converted” 3D movies, “Clash of the Titans” is more laughable. But it is an awful film in its own right.

    “Love Ranch” should’ve had an appropriately epic feel, in the vein of “Goodfellas” or “Boogie Nights,” but instead it feels like a Cliffs Notes version of the true story it’s telling.

  • 8 7-02-2010 at 10:05 pm

    Reub said...

    @George

    Oh oh. Kris didn’t like Inception?

  • 9 7-02-2010 at 10:30 pm

    George said...

    The review embargo ends on Monday, so hopefully we’ll see his review soon.

  • 10 7-02-2010 at 11:46 pm

    Pablo (BOG) said...

    Excellent title for this article. Vampires suck ? If you mean Twilight ans so on BIG YES !

    Other vampires ? Not so much.

  • 11 7-03-2010 at 2:21 am

    j said...

    Airbender proves competition for Killers for Worst Movie of the Year. Killers is one point higher on MC, but it has an average 25 for RT top critics vs. Airbender’s 29.

  • 12 7-03-2010 at 8:06 am

    ninja said...

    Last Airbender has a bad buzz among everyone who isn`t a kid or their parent so it`s poised for an excellent opening and guaranteed over $100 mio run. Hopefully, not anywhere close to returning its $150 mio budget cause Shyamalan is already writing the sequel and that can get only worse cause why would he fix writing when the movie is doing great despite 8% RT?

    As a fan of the Nickleodeon show, I`m pulling for the live-action franchise non-start and than a good reboot in a few years with real talents.

    As for rumour that Kris hated Inception, I respect Kris but he gushed over that garbage Lovely Bones so I`m with Inception-lovin` crowd from CHUD who hated on Bones.

  • 13 7-03-2010 at 8:56 am

    Will said...

    i agree with Ninja i’d rather see a reboot in a couple of years of The Last Airbender i’ve never seen a movie that wants to get to the credits as fast as it can till now it should win worst script of the year

  • 14 7-03-2010 at 9:50 am

    geha714 said...

    Yes, Chad. Yesterday’s both games were unbelievable. Poor Ghana, but they need to learn to kick penalties better.

    Still, that doesn’t compare to today’s destruction of Argentina by the Mannschaft or Germany for the uninitiated. 4-o, that’s going to hurt.

    South Africa 2010: BEST. WORLD CUP. EVER!

  • 15 7-03-2010 at 10:49 am

    ninja said...

    Cuaron for TLA reboot!

  • 16 7-03-2010 at 12:43 pm

    Will said...

    Give the Reboot to Nolan he’s going to need something to do after the 3rd batman movie

  • 17 7-03-2010 at 1:39 pm

    Fitz said...

    Still refuse to believe that Twilight was brought up during a Supreme Court Justice Nominee Confirmation Hearing. Assinine.

  • 18 7-03-2010 at 2:30 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    I would argue that Shyamalan has made just as many great movies as Nolan at this point.

  • 19 7-03-2010 at 2:50 pm

    /3rtfu11 said...

    I’m waiting for Inception.

    The worst movie of the year was the last one I saw in theaters SATC 2: Bitch-tar!

  • 20 7-03-2010 at 2:55 pm

    Reub said...

    I would argue that Shyamalan has made three times as many bad movies as Nolan has at this point. :)

  • 21 7-03-2010 at 4:36 pm

    Leocdc said...

    Chad Hartigan: What great movies has done Shyamalan according to you? And Nolan?

  • 22 7-03-2010 at 4:38 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    One each. Unbreakable and The Dark Knight

  • 23 7-03-2010 at 4:57 pm

    Will said...

    @Chad Not even The Sixth Sense

  • 24 7-03-2010 at 4:57 pm

    Leocdc said...

    Ok. Thanks.
    I would say the same about Shyamalan (I didn’t see Sixth Sense when little boy, and now I already know the twist, so still I don’t see it), but for Nolan, I’d called great movies (and maybe masterpieces): Memento, The Prestige and TDK. 10/10 each one of them. And waiting to be blown away by Inception too. :D

  • 25 7-03-2010 at 6:24 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    @Fitz: It was probably a typo on your part, but “assinine” is a great new word.

  • 26 7-03-2010 at 7:23 pm

    James D. said...

    I would agree both Nolan and Shyamalan have made one great film, but I would switch Unbreakable for Signs.

  • 27 7-04-2010 at 7:22 pm

    Pablo (BOG) said...

    The Last Airbender is based in such a fantastic and enriching tale. A shame it wasnt well translated into the movie world.

  • 28 7-04-2010 at 8:11 pm

    Kyle said...

    But Chad, has Nolan made any painfully bad films? I would say no…Shyamalan has made three dreadfully awful movies in a row. (Lady in the Water, The Happening, and The Last Airbender)