In Contention

Author: Guy Lodge

  • Your winner predictions

    As I did last year when Kris posted his pre-nomination winner predictions, I tallied up your responses to see how our readers currently view the race. And either you’re blind disciples of Kris or, far more likely, we’re in for one surprise-free season, as your collective predictions match his in every category but two — for Art Direction and Costume Design, more of you think (or hope?) “The King’s Speech” will fend off “Alice in Wonderland.”

    A tight split between “Life, Above All” (Kris’s pick, and mine) and “Biutiful” says you’re not sure how Best Foreign Language Film will pan out, either — largely because most of you opted out of a prediction there. (Come on, guys — risk-takers get the bragging rights!) But you’re absolutely unanimous on Best Director, Adapted Screenplay and Animated Feature, with lone holdouts on Best Actor, Supporting Actor and Visual Effects.

    Can it all be so easy, so early?

    [Image: The Weinstein Company]

  • ‘King’s Speech’ rules UK box office

    “Tailored largely for the international audience for whom the internal politics of the Royal Family seem never to lose their mystique or fascination,” I wrote in my October review of “The King’s Speech.”

    I guess I have to take that back, since the film — which only opened on Friday in its home country — has become a genuine UK box-office phenomenon, as opposed to the specialized success it’s been across the pond.

    The film handily knocked “Gulliver’s Travels” off the #1 spot (bleak times, these) with a weekend gross of £3.52 million. (That’s about $5.5 million, if you like your figures translated, though it goes with saying that UK and US numbers are not comparable.) To put that in context, that’s over four times what another royal-themed prestige drama, “The Queen,” made on only slightly fewer screens back in the autumn of 2006.

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  • Did Armond White rain on the NYFCC parade?

    As regular readers might know, I tend to fall in the less populated “pro” camp when it comes to notoriously cranky New York Press critic Armond White — as much flak as he takes, from bloggers in particular, for his off-kilter tastes and occasionally aggressive writing style, I think he’s one of a select few writers making readers evaluate criticism as an artform, while I frequently find fillets of perspicacity in his more impassioned arguments.

    Dispensing with social niceties in creative print, however, is more endearing than doing the same in person — particularly when you’re representing not just yourself, but a group of professional peers.

    This Gawker report on White’s acid-tongued emceeing of last night’s New York Film Critics’ Circle awards dinner is too stingy with details and heavy on relayed quotes to pass judgment on, but on what’s supposed to be a celebratory communal evening, perhaps backhanded insults to winners and guests alike can wait for one evening. (UPDATE: NYFCC member Lisa Schwarzbaum says as much in her displeased writeup of the proceedings.)

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  • FIRST-HALF FYC: Below-the-line standouts

    For the penultimate installment in our reflection on the most Oscar-worthy achievements from the largely forgotten first half of 2010’s release calendar, I’m backtracking away from the major categories to the place I should perhaps have started: the technical sphere.

    Had I thought to start this column 20-odd weeks in advance of nomination day, I could have given each craft category the attention it deserves — though if I’m being honest, picking five outstanding Best Sound Editing contenders from the year’s first six months wouldn’t be the easiest of tasks.

    As it stands, I’ve arrived at an admittedly drastic compromise: singling out five individual technical contributions, across the range of categories, that made a particularly strong impression. With such a doubly curtailed brief, the list of painfully excised honorable mentions inevitably runs very long indeed, so I’ll jump straight in with a few of them.

    As much as “Shutter Island” didn’t work for me as a whole, it delivered considerable rewards as a craft showcase: I was particularly tempted to include Dante Ferretti’s art direction, which will likely find its way to Oscar recognition without my help.

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  • Peter Yates (1929-2011)

    11 years after his last theatrical feature (and far longer since the last one anyone saw), the passing of British director Peter Yates likely won’t leave much of a dent on contemporary audiences. Not knowingly, anyway — though his innovative visual and editing schemes in the iconic 1968 Steve McQueen thriller “Bullitt” helped change the shape of the prototypical Hollywood action sequence. It was, of course, his quieter work on “The Dresser” and “Breaking Away” that landed him four career Oscar nominations. But since those, along with that car chase from “Bullitt,” are all being amply covered in the obits, I thought I’d spotlight a more neglected pleasure: his frisky 1972 caper “The Hot Rock.”

  • Helena Bonham Carter slights her own performance

    In last week’s episode of Oscar Talk, one reader cheekily asked Anne and Kris which probable nominee they would most like to see out of the running. After much hemming and hawing, Anne landed upon Melissa Leo, while Kris stumped for (or against, rather) Annette Bening.

    While I’d co-sign neither of those choices, it’s just as well Kris didn’t choose that evening to cold-call me on the podcast, since I could easily have whined for hours on end about other contenders — and Helena Bonham Carter, widely seen as a shoo-in for her turn as the eventual Queen Mother in “The King’s Speech,” would have topped the list.

    An inoffensive wallpaper performance to some, it struck me as distractingly twitchy, mannered work against the crisp, unfussy teamwork of leads Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush.

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  • BAFTA names Rising Star nominees

    As you know, BAFTA likes to trickle out a few awards announcements ahead of their nominations, which will be revealed next Tuesday. Last week, we had the Best Foreign Language Film nominees and general category longlists — today, we have the five finalists for their Rising Star Award.

    Perhaps the most unique category in a ceremony that otherwise follows the Oscar template with increasing devotion, this self-explanatory honor  is the only award BAFTA hands over to the voting public, though the shortlist is compiled by a panel of journos and industry insiders. (Before you cry foul at some relatively established names on the list, the award is not necessarily for newcomers, but for actors whose profile grew significantly in the past year.)

    The public vote inevitably favors the star with the greatest youth appeal — last year saw Kristen Stewart beating Best Actress winner Carey Mulligan, while the year before, non-British viewers were left scratching their heads when Noel Clarke saw off Michaels Cera and Fassbender.

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  • BAFTA announce foreign-language nomineezzzzz

    Along with my annual bewilderment as to the reasoning for BAFTA’s longlist announcement, I’ve never really got why they announce their Best Foreign Language Film nominations separately, 11 days ahead of the other categories. To me, it seems merely an additional way to marginalize an already marginalized category, but what else is new?

    The official line, I believe, is that the head start gives voters extra time to catch up with the nominated films, but when their selections are as obvious and ubiquitous as the five films listed after the jump, is that really necessary? I mean, who isn’t aware of “I Am Love” or “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” by now?

    The continued appearance of the latter film — a sloppy potboiler that may have made bank, but has no business beating, say, “Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives” to a nod — in this category has been one of my biggest bugbears of the season, by the way. (Moreover, its grim appearance on BAFTA’s Best Film longlist, where it is the only foreign-language title to place, suggests it’ll probably win this race in a walk.)

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  • ‘Black Swan,’ ‘King’s Speech’ lead BAFTA longlists

    I’ve never really been sure why BAFTA bothers to announce this stage in their voting process — the 15 names in each category from which the final nominees will be plucked — unless it’s to reveal the extraordinarily narrow range of titles they’re willing to consider for awards in any one field. (Ellen Page for Best Supporting Actress? Seriously, BAFTA? And let’s not even get into those Director and Actor mentions for “Alice in Wonderland.”)

    “Black Swan” and “The King’s Speech” lead the way with 15 longlist mentions apiece. Don’t place too much stock in those numbers (uh, the latter film for visual effects?), but expect robust nomination hauls on 18 January. One can largely anticipate that announcement by noting the five contenders in each category marked with an asterisk — those indicate the relevant voting branch’s top selections, and the eventual nominees usually differ only by one or two names, if at all.

    It’s mostly predictable stuff, but there are a few interesting developments, particularly concerning two category placements that have been hotly debated all season.

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  • Kathryn Bigelow speaks up for ‘Winter’s Bone’

    Given that it’s currently fighting tooth and nail for a place in the Academy’s tight Best Picture lineup, scrappy fringe darling “Winter’s Bone” could use some high-profile cheerleaders as we head into the home stretch of voting. And as Steve Pond reports, it just got one, in the shape of reigning Best Picture and Director winner (and member of the Academy’s Board of Governors) Kathryn Bigelow.

    Bigelow, who has some idea how it feels to be the indie spoiler in the race, recently hosted two private screenings of the film — though she has no personal connection to it or to director Debra Granik. (This makes it slightly different to Julia Roberts’ recent Academy-targeted reception for former co-star Javier Bardem.) Speaking to The Wrap, she waxes lyrical on the film:

    I just think it’s a masterful film that deserves exposure – and if I can do anything to help it out, I’m happy to do it … I was fascinated to meet [Debra Granik], because the film is so perfectly crafted. The performances are extraordinary, Jennifer Lawrence is a star turn. And it’s got this prescient knowing, this confidence you feel watching a film that’s haunting and provocative. It’s just a magnificent film.

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  • Robert De Niro to head Cannes jury

    Sure, that Cecil B. DeMille Award at the upcoming Golden Globes is nice enough, but this is the greater honour. Robert De Niro has been selected as the president of the competition jury at this year’s Cannes Film Festival in May — the third time this most European of festivals has tapped an American for the job in four years. (Tim Burton did the honors last year, Sean Penn in 2008.)

    For the past two years, the eventual Palme d’Or winner has seemingly, if not necessarily, borne the fingerprints of the jury president. Isabelle Huppert handed the prize to her friend and collaborator Michael Haneke in 2009 (and took a lot less stick for it than Quentin Tarantino did for rewarding his ex at Venice last year).

    Burton’s reign, meanwhile, culminated in the unusual occurrence of a fantasy film (“Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives”) taking the gold. De Niro somehow seems likely to wield a less assertive stamp on the proceedings, though you never know until the post-fest gossip starts leaking out.

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  • Life versus art in ‘The Fighter’

    You know by now how much I love “The Fighter” for its odd, jangly fusion of heightened realism and rah-rah studio formula, so it’s never struck me as particularly important how fact-faithful it remains in striking the balance. Still, I rather liked this video, which breaks down not only the liberties the film takes with the truth — but the unexpected loyalties too. As someone who knows slightly less about boxing than I do about aeronautical engineering, I was impressed to note the attention to physical detail in Mark Wahlberg’s under-appreciated performance. (Thanks to Craig Skinner for the link.)

    Also worth passing along is the SoundWorks Collection profile of the film. Have a look at that after the jump.

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  • Weekly predictions update

    As you may have noticed, my long-delayed Best of 2010 feature went up earlier today, and I’ve been enjoying your generous response thus far. It does, however, come in lieu of this week’s Long Shot column: there are only so many hours in the day, and frankly, it’s getting increasingly difficult to find any fresh angle on a race that’s virtually congealing before our eyes.

    This week’s guild announcements thus far certainly haven’t moved the needle much one way or the other — but they might have closed a couple of remote avenues. Though I haven’t a column to accompany them today, I did do some minor tidying and rearranging of furniture on my predictions page.

    I find myself drifting a little closer to the consensus each week, though I’m clinging to my long-held hunch that “Winter’s Bone” will endure, and even surprise, in a couple of major categories, while many of the technical categories remain intriguingly wobbly. (Where are the Best Costume Design fillers? You just know that field is going to turn up something weird.)

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  • Watching and waiting: Guy’s best and worst of 2010

    What kind of year was 2010 at the movies? You tell me. It’s virtually impossible to find one yardstick to measure 365 days of cinema for a collective audience whose interests seem ever more segregated.

    If your film interests are covered largely by the multiplex, chances are 2010 was an unusually unrewarding year for you, challenging even Hollywood’s standard quota of déjà vu — unless, of course, you’re an animation fiend, in which case there was a broad enough range of carefully crafted work to keep you happy.

    If you tend to bypass the mall on your way to the arthouse, however, there was any amount of adventurous indie and world cinema, both newly unveiled and backlogged from previous years, to chew on — if, of course, you’re privileged enough to live in a regrettably narrow radius. And if you’re an Academy voter sifting through the crop of generously campaigned prestige fare, 2010 looks rather like the usual, only a little more so.

    For me, 2010 was both immeasurably improved and somewhat complicated by the festival circuit — access to which is a luxury I shall never take for granted, but also one that inevitably skews my sense of how the film yearbook reads in the real world. When you’ve had access to most of the big-ticket winter warmers by early autumn, and when the likes of Cannes afford you a head start of many months or even years on certain international art films, things rather lose their shape.

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  • FIRST-HALF FYC: Best Director

    With precisely three weeks to go until Oscar nomination morning, we continue to flag up worthy work from 2010’s first half, much of it lost (or, indeed, never present) amid the crush of more recent awards contenders. You know the January-to-June drill by now: beyond that, we can get as far-fetched as we like.

    I certainly did this week, as my field of Best Director suggestions betrays the extent to which foreign arthouse fare rules the quality ranks in the early months of the year, while American studios save their prize ponies for summer. For this ballot to pan out, the Academy would have to overcome their usual resistance to subtitles several times over, while making history twice by nominating two women and a documentary filmmaker. Not much to ask, is it?

    Speaking of women, by the way, it bears repeating that opening months of the year were strong ones for female filmmakers: between the likes of Debra Granik, Jessica Hausner and Mia Hansen-Løve, all of whom were closely considered, I could have cheerfully assembled a ladies-only field.

    Finally, before I get into my picks, I should add that while many (certainly the Academy itself, on recent form) see the Best Picture and Director categories as interchangeable, I don’t quite work that way — as often as they inevitably overlap, sometimes a director’s formal ambition and achievement burns a little brighter than the whole.

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  • ‘Never Let Me Go’ tops London Evening Standard noms

    The London Evening Standard Awards, a particularly bijou set of critics’ honors reserved for British titles and talent, tend to swerve a little left of the expected — chosen as they are by a jury of six disparate, but equally opinionated, critics. So it is this year: obviously “The King’s Speech” and “Another Year” feature heavily, but the list is peppered with pleasing examples of independent thinking.

    Indeed, this jury has given a sharp reprimand to the recent BIFA Awards by including Peter Mullan’s lavishly praised indie “Neds” in their Best Film lineup, a highly diverse selection that also includes Sylvain Chomet’s animated wonder “The Illusionist” (yay), Matthew Vaughan’s divisive comic adaptation “Kick-Ass” (boo) and Clio Barnard’s performance-documentary hybrid “The Arbor.”

    Frozen out in the Oscar race, “Never Let Me Go” nonetheless had a good day here with a leading five nods, thanks largely to the jury’s regard for all three of its leads.

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  • PGA nominates the expected

    Look to your right, at Kris’s current Best Picture predictions. Now look at the list of 10 films just nominated for the Producers Guild of America’s top award. Ready for a quick game of Spot the Difference? It’ll be very quick — there are none. (Kris’s hopes yesterday for one wild-card nod were in vain.)

    The PGA could hardly have stuck any more closely to the script with this morning’s announcement, which points to a rapidly solidifying race three weeks ahead of the Oscar nominations. Still, questions remain, and I’d still bet against the Academy following this list precisely to the letter.

    Among the titles left off the PGA’s list is “Winter’s Bone,” but the microbudget no-name indie was never likely to score with these guys. Will passion votes still propel it into the Oscar Ten — and if so, among the presumed stragglers, will “127 Hours” or “The Town” make way?

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  • James Franco dreams big, then bigger

    Many actors eyeing early directorial projects tend to focus on something both modest and close to home, a performance-oriented piece on which to cut their teeth for more formally ambitious works in the future.

    Try telling that to James Franco. In perhaps the most unlikely heartthrob-behind-camera move since Kevin Costner announced his intention to make a three-hour post-Civil War Western with large chunks of Lakota dialogue, news has come down the wire of Franco’s intention to finally adapt and direct Cormac McCarthy’s  totemic Western novel “Blood Meridian,” a long-mooted project previously held by the likes of Ridley Scott and Todd Field, for the screen.

    But that’s not before he makes his intended big-league debut as writer-director with another little literary adaptation prospect: William Faulkner’s stream-of-consciousness classic “As I Lay Dying,” which you may or may not recall has just 15 narrators. No sweat. As fellow film writer Neil Young remarked to me on Twitter, “He might at least warm up with a 10-hour ‘Finnegan’s Wake,’ or perhaps just a couple of Pynchons.”

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