Weekly predictions update

Posted by · 3:51 pm · January 5th, 2011

As you may have noticed, my long-delayed Best of 2010 feature went up earlier today, and I’ve been enjoying your generous response thus far. It does, however, come in lieu of this week’s Long Shot column: there are only so many hours in the day, and frankly, it’s getting increasingly difficult to find any fresh angle on a race that’s virtually congealing before our eyes.

This week’s guild announcements thus far certainly haven’t moved the needle much one way or the other — but they might have closed a couple of remote avenues. Though I haven’t a column to accompany them today, I did do some minor tidying and rearranging of furniture on my predictions page.

I find myself drifting a little closer to the consensus each week, though I’m clinging to my long-held hunch that “Winter’s Bone” will endure, and even surprise, in a couple of major categories, while many of the technical categories remain intriguingly wobbly. (Where are the Best Costume Design fillers? You just know that field is going to turn up something weird.)

Meanwhile, with most of the acting categories down to six or seven clearly marked candidates, it’s looking like a tight game of musical chairs to determine who just misses. Is the well-liked candidate everyone assumes is “in” also the one voters are putting atop their ballots? (Helena Bonham-Carter, say, or Jeff Bridges.) Idle thoughts, idle thoughts. Check out my revised predix here.




→ 12 Comments Tags: , , , | Filed in: Daily

12 responses so far

  • 1 1-05-2011 at 4:54 pm

    tim said...

    So you don’t think Andrew Garfield will make it either? Bummer. Love him, I still hope he’ll manage his first nomination this year. One of my favorite young actors.

  • 2 1-05-2011 at 5:15 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    He’s on the bubble. I could easily change my mind in the coming weeks — but the performance is so low-key, it’s easy to imagine voters taking it for granted. That SAG snub, while by no means a killer, is an ominous sign.

  • 3 1-05-2011 at 5:30 pm

    Andrej said...

    Regarding Winter’s Bone, what about the cinematography? It could make a surprise nod there, it has some beautiful, somber outdoor shots, and the composition of John Hawkes’s face in the side mirror was great.

  • 4 1-05-2011 at 6:14 pm

    tim said...

    Unfortunately I agree. It seems like BSA is gonna come down to Bale, Rush and whoever can follow their film to a nomination. If the Academy loves TSN then Garfield is in, TG then it’s Damon, Kids and Ruffalo, WB and Hawkes, or Town and Renner. I haven’t seen all the performances, but this year sucks in that so many people deserve a spot and won’t get in.

  • 5 1-05-2011 at 6:33 pm

    Mike M. said...

    I’ve noticed that you never predict Helena Bonham Carter in supporting actress. Interesting. What’s your reasoning? I think she’ll struggle getting #1 votes, but what puts her in a worse position than Mila Kunis?

  • 6 1-05-2011 at 7:19 pm

    Corey said...

    do u really not think that trent reznors score will not get the nod. it deff deserves it

  • 7 1-05-2011 at 8:42 pm

    McAllister said...

    Could “Agora” be a surprise costume nominee? I’m watching it now and that looks to be the best part of the film.

  • 8 1-05-2011 at 9:17 pm

    jbm said...

    Hey Guy,

    I would seriously like to know if some of the selections in some of your categories are based on whether you like the movie or not….
    I mean you have to be one of maybe 5 people in the world who seriously thinks that Inception will miss out on Director & Org. Screenplay or that True Grit will miss out on Direcor, Actor & Apt. Screenplay. If you would’ve said that they would be nominated for atleat one of these,
    I would take it as opinion, but when you say they completely miss out on categories that they are more heavily favored for noms, it looks more like dislike for that particular film….

  • 9 1-06-2011 at 12:50 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    do u really not think that trent reznors score will not get the nod. it deff deserves it

    I’m confused as to what you’re asking here. I’m predicting it in Score.

    Jbm: They have nothing to do with personal preference — look at all the nominations for I’m predicting for The King’s Speech, after all. I just enjoy anticipating the surprise snubs. There likely won’t be as many as my predictions currently project, but I’m hedging bets right now — I’ll firm things up in the coming weeks.

  • 10 1-06-2011 at 12:59 am

    CrystalBall said...

    Best Picture
    “Winter’s Bone”
    “Black Swan”
    “Toy Story 3”
    “Inception”
    “True Grit”
    “127 Hours”
    “The Fighter”
    “Please Give”
    “Biutiful”
    “The King’s Speech”

    Best Director
    Debra Granik, “Winter’s Bone”
    Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
    Christopher Nolan “Inception”
    Lee Unkrich “Toy Story 3”
    Coen Brothers “True Grit”

    Best Actor
    Leonardo DiCaprio “Inception
    James Franco, “127 Hours”
    Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Paul Giamatti “Barney’s Version”
    Matt Damon “Hereafter”

    Best Actress
    Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
    Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
    Mia Wasikowska “Alice in Wonderland”
    Sally Hawkins “Made in Dagenham”

    Best Supporting Actor
    John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
    Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Vincent Cassell “Black Swan”
    Bill Murray “Get Low”
    Bob Hoskins “Made in Dagenham”

    Best Supporting Actress
    Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
    Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
    Catherine Keener “Please Give”
    Cecile de France “Hereafter”
    Winona Ryder “Black Swan”

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    “Winter’s Bone”
    “Toy Story 3″
    “True Grit”
    “127 Hours”
    “The Social Network”

    Best Original Screenplay
    “Black Swan”
    “Inception”
    “Please Give”
    “The Fighter”
    “The King’s Speech”

    Best Art Direction
    “Inception”
    “Alice in Wonderland”
    “Shutter Island”
    “True Grit”
    “The King’s Speech”

    Best Cinematography
    ”Inception”
    “Black Swan”
    “True Grit”
    “Winter’s Bone”
    “127 Hours”

    Best Costume Design
    “Black Swan”
    “Alice in Wonderland”
    “True Grit”
    “Inception”
    “Made in Dagenham”

    Best Film Editing
    “Winter’s Bone”
    “Black Swan”
    “Inception”
    “Please Give”
    “Toy Story 3”

    Best Makeup
    “Alice in Wonderland”
    “Black Swan”
    “TRON”
    “Winter’s Bone”
    “127 Hours”

    Best Music – Original Score
    “Inception”
    “The King’s Speech”
    “127 Hours”
    “Alice in Wonderland”
    “The Social Network”

    Best Music – Original Song
    ”You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
    “Alice” from “Alice in Wonderland”
    “I See the Light” from “Tangled”
    “Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
    “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”

    Best Sound Editing
    “Inception”
    “Alice in Wonderland”
    “Toy Story 3”
    “TRON Legacy”
    “Iron Man 2”

    Best Sound Mixing
    “Inception”
    “Black Swan”
    “Alice in Wonderland”
    “Toy Story 3”
    “Iron Man 2”

    Best Visual Effects
    “Inception”
    “Alice in Wonderland”
    “TRON Legacy”
    “Hereafter”
    “Iron Man 2”

    Best Animated Feature
    “Toy Story 3”
    “How to Train Your Dragon”
    “Dispicable Me”
    “Tangled”
    “The Illusinist”

    Best Foreign Language Film
    “Son of Babylon,” Iraq
    “Outside the Law,” Algeria
    “Incendies,” Canada
    “In a Better World,” Denmark
    “Life, Above All,” South Africa

    Best Documentary Feature
    “Waiting for Superman”
    “Who is Harry Nilsson (and Why is everybody talking about him?)”
    “Restrepo”
    “The Tillman Story”
    “Henri Georges Clouzot’s Inferno”

  • 11 1-06-2011 at 4:05 am

    julian said...

    I’m afraid that WB’s chances are dwindling day by day…it seems like there’s enough support for both 127 hours and the mediocrity that is The Town to keep the stunning independent movie out of the race. What a shame:(
    Hopefully we can assume that both lawrence and hawkes will get nods…

  • 12 1-06-2011 at 2:41 pm

    The Great Dane said...

    Sorry, Guy, but your score nominees are never gonna happen.

    “The Ghost Writer”
    “Inception”
    “Let Me In”
    “Never Let Me Go”
    “The Social Network”

    They won’t let TWO bombs (Never Let Me In, hehe) plus a non-seen film (The Ghost Writer) in. I can see one of these 3 making it in a la “The Village”, and in a dream world two of them – but three? I know that most of the Best Picture frontrunners have been declared ineligible, but still – not gonna happen. Though I think it’s a great set of nominees, but it won’t happen. Bigger-scale/more high-profile films will make it in. Who would vote for Let Me In? Did even 50 Academy members see it? Did even 10 from the Music branch?