Your winner predictions

Posted by · 4:58 am · January 12th, 2011

As I did last year when Kris posted his pre-nomination winner predictions, I tallied up your responses to see how our readers currently view the race. And either you’re blind disciples of Kris or, far more likely, we’re in for one surprise-free season, as your collective predictions match his in every category but two — for Art Direction and Costume Design, more of you think (or hope?) “The King’s Speech” will fend off “Alice in Wonderland.”

A tight split between “Life, Above All” (Kris’s pick, and mine) and “Biutiful” says you’re not sure how Best Foreign Language Film will pan out, either — largely because most of you opted out of a prediction there. (Come on, guys — risk-takers get the bragging rights!) But you’re absolutely unanimous on Best Director, Adapted Screenplay and Animated Feature, with lone holdouts on Best Actor, Supporting Actor and Visual Effects.

Can it all be so easy, so early?

[Image: The Weinstein Company]

→ 22 Comments Tags: , , , , | Filed in: Daily

22 responses so far

  • 1 1-12-2011 at 5:30 am

    julian said...

    is biutiful eligible for best foreign picture?? I dindn’t think so…if it is it has good chances due to the star power of javier bardem (and NOT its depressing content!)
    If Biutiful is out I think Susanne Bier’s In a Better World has a good shot. She is a previous nominee and I think her latest film hits the right oscar buttons…

  • 2 1-12-2011 at 6:14 am

    Nicolas Mancuso said...

    Does anyone know when/if we’re getting a pre-nomination Foreign Language film longlist this year?

    I’m really rooting for “Incendies” to pull through as Canada’s second win!

  • 3 1-12-2011 at 6:20 am

    Maxim said...

    Call me skeptical but I don’t think that most of those lists contained real predictions. To me predicting means starting at the very beginning and working and logically (or however you want to call it) working through the entire list. Most of the time, I think people are just picking what they think looks most likely BUT their decisions on what made other things likely depend largely on what they’ve seen or other people pick. It’s hard not too be on autpilot sometimes which is why I always took those collective predictions with a grain of salt.

    Still, there is no denying the wisdom of crowds, I guess.

  • 4 1-12-2011 at 6:24 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Julian: Yes, it’s Mexico’s official submission.

  • 5 1-12-2011 at 7:14 am

    Matthew Starr said...

    I refused to follow Kris, Guy and Scott Feinberg last year when they predicted Secret In Their Eyes. I just could not believe such a blah movie would beat Prophet and White Ribbon.

    Now I am a blind disciple. I’ll choose whatever lame horse yall choose.

  • 6 1-12-2011 at 7:21 am

    Michelle said...

    I don’t think it will be this easy in the end. I think we are bound to see some major shake-ups in nominations and winners. Mind you, there are a few “locks” in the major categories (most likely Fincher and Firth) but everything else is up for grabs in my opinion. The Supp. Actor categories is the most unpredictable at this point. Ya, precursors are great and they do mean a lot in the race but we have seen it happen before that someone sneaks in and there is an upset. Even look at last year, Maggie Gyllenhaal getting a nom for Supp. Actress. She really had no buzz going into the award season but there she popped up.

    I have to admit that my winner predictions do follow with the favourties so far (TSN, Fincher, Firth, Portman, Bale) but Supp. Actress is a toss up between Steinfeld and one of The Fighter ladies.

  • 7 1-12-2011 at 7:24 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Matthew Starr: Even though I think it’s right up the Academy’s alley, I wouldn’t actually call “Life, Above All” a lame horse — it’s a good little film. I’d much rather it won than “Biutiful” or “Of Gods and Men.”

    That said, I haven’t seen “Incendies” or “In a Better World” yet. Both sound like major threats.

  • 8 1-12-2011 at 7:45 am

    Nelson said...

    I still think that The Social Network’s fire is eventually going to go out and from there The King’s Speech can swoop in and win Best Picture

  • 9 1-12-2011 at 7:53 am

    tom said...

    I’d suggest that, even though many of these consensus choices will win, they’re more a product of hive-mind — everyone hovering around the same sources and reinforcing one another’s opinions — than any independent judgment.

    Over the years, I’ve collected predictions from any media sources with the slightest credibility, and they’ve been marked by near-unanamity EVEN WHEN THEY WERE WRONG.

    Which is to say, yeah, everyone has predicted Helen Mirren and Jeff Bridges, but they’ve been certain in just about the same numbers for Kate Hudson, Sissy Spacek (’01), Eddie Murphy, Julie Christie and, of course, Brokeback Mountain. Truly competitive-seeming races — like best actor ’08 — are the exception, but they aren’t the only cases of actual competition. Ask Jason Reiman about that.

    So I wouldn’t take this early unanimity as evidence of anything but the usual group-think.

  • 10 1-12-2011 at 7:57 am

    Matthew Starr said...

    I have not seen any of this year’s foreign film contenders so I can’t honestly say anything about them I was just referring to the Academy’s choices in years past, especially last year.

    I might not get to see Life Above All until summer 2011 or whenever they decide to release it.

  • 11 1-12-2011 at 8:12 am

    Squirrelman said...

    I saw Dogtooth recently. Wow. A great, subtly dark film. I’m not sure if it can get in though. Can it slip through or is BFLF completely packed?

    Life Above All and Incendies look pretty darned cool. I really wanna try and see them.

  • 12 1-12-2011 at 8:18 am

    Marshall said...

    I think the only major categories certain are Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay.

    Actress can still sway to Bening.
    Supporting Actor could go to Rush.
    Supporting Actress is still wide open.
    Original Screenplay is a three-way race with little clarity at the moment.

  • 13 1-12-2011 at 8:44 am

    Drew said...

    I put Sons of Babylon as the upset prediction for Foreign feature. Has anyone here at Incontention had the privilege to see it yet? The subject just seems like something that could grab anyone.

  • 14 1-12-2011 at 8:50 am

    Paul Outlaw said...

    Here’s a prediction: If Bardem does not get a Best Actor nod and Biutiful gets a Best Foreign Language nod, it will definitely win. There!

  • 15 1-12-2011 at 8:58 am

    Maxim said...

    People are making too much out of Eddie Murphy’s loss. The fact is, Arkin was always going to win that Oscar, especially after multiple previous nominations.

    If City Slickers and Ed Wood won, why don’t you think that Arkin could not have won on his own too?

  • 16 1-12-2011 at 9:19 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Squirrelman: I suppose it could make the nine-film shortlist if the executive committee that determines a third of inclusions is feeling particularly gutsy. But the general voters in that branch will never go for it.

    Drew: Don’t know if you’ve been keeping up with my predictions, but I’ve been predicting a nomination for “Son of Babylon” from the beginning. I can easily imagine it winning.

  • 17 1-12-2011 at 9:49 am

    darklayers said...

    Marshall, I know you focused on the most prominent categories, but I think you can make a reasonable case for VFX and Animated as closed.

  • 18 1-12-2011 at 9:58 am

    JJ1 said...

    The way I see it right now.

    BP – Most likely TSN, could very well be TKS, possibly BS, Fighter, TG.
    BD – Most likely Fincher.
    BA – Most likely Colin Firth.
    BAcs – Portman or Bening.
    BSa – Bale or Rush.
    BSAcs – Wide open.
    BOS – TKS or Inception, slight poss of BS.
    BAS – TSN.
    BCin – Most likely TG, maybe BS.
    BArt – Alice or TKS.
    BCost – ALice or TKS.
    BSounds – Inception or TRON.
    BFX – INcpetion or TRON.
    BScore – Wide open.

  • 19 1-12-2011 at 10:50 am

    Blake said...

    I believe several categories are wide open, mostly in the tech categories. Supporting actress could go 3, maybe 4 different ways. Original screenplay will likely go to kings speech, but black swan, inception, or kids are all right can easily snatch it if one of those films gains more buzz in the next few weeks. Whichever one wins the wga will go head to head with kings speech. Art direction is wide open, as is costumes, makeup is never locked until we know the nominees, cinematography can go 3 ways (true grit, black swan, inception) as can film editing (social network, black swan, inception). Visual effects and sound editing will likely go to inception, but I wouldn’t be surprised if black swan took sound mixing. Look at when Chicago and ray beat lord of the rings and the aviator.

  • 20 1-12-2011 at 5:13 pm

    Derek 8-Track said...

    didn’t Sandy Powell say in her speech last year something along the lines of, ‘stop giving me these I already have two, I don’t need anymore. If you want to win Oscars and you’re a costume designer, design for period dramas.’ I though that was pretty funny.

  • 21 1-12-2011 at 6:28 pm

    Brett Snyder said...

    The Best Supporting Actress race is very intriguing to me. I have Bonham Carter winning at the Globes, but Amy Adams winning the Critics’ Choice.

    I’m so torn about who wins the Oscar. “Animal Kingdom” hasn’t gotten enough exposure, so I look for Jacki Weaver to have to settle for a nomination. Amy Adams and Melissa Leo might split votes. Steinfeld might be too much of a newcomer. Bonham Carter’s performance just doesn’t stand out enough. But if I had to pick, I’d go with Adams, and Weaver as my alternate.

    Check out my blog – for more awards coverage & analysis – now updated daily!

  • 22 1-12-2011 at 6:58 pm

    Speaking English said...

    Adams and Leo “splitting” votes has no grounding in reality.