PGA nominates the expected

Posted by · 7:09 am · January 4th, 2011

Look to your right, at Kris’s current Best Picture predictions. Now look at the list of 10 films just nominated for the Producers Guild of America’s top award. Ready for a quick game of Spot the Difference? It’ll be very quick — there are none. (Kris’s hopes yesterday for one wild-card nod were in vain.)

The PGA could hardly have stuck any more closely to the script with this morning’s announcement, which points to a rapidly solidifying race three weeks ahead of the Oscar nominations. Still, questions remain, and I’d still bet against the Academy following this list precisely to the letter.

Among the titles left off the PGA’s list is “Winter’s Bone,” but the microbudget no-name indie was never likely to score with these guys. Will passion votes still propel it into the Oscar Ten — and if so, among the presumed stragglers, will “127 Hours” or “The Town” make way?

Mildly more surprising is their animated category, which sees “Despicable Me” elbowing “Tangled” out of the way. (“The Illusionist,” as Kris and others correctly predicted, wasn’t going to factor in here.) Did the Disney blockbuster struggle to impress the money men with its complicated production history and stratospheric budget? (As Nathaniel Rogers pointed out on Twitter, the film’s US gross is still $93 million short of clearing its cost.) The Academy’s animators’ branch, of course, has different priorities — but this snub suggests that race for the third Oscar slot is tight indeed.

Difficult to read too much into the PGA’s documentary lineup, given their very different demands and the fact that two of their nominees are officially out of the running for the Oscar, but “Inside Job,” “The Tillman Story” and “Waiting for Superman” all remain on course.

Check out the full list of nominees at The Circuit.

[Image: Universal Pictures]




→ 39 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , | Filed in: Daily

39 responses so far

  • 1 1-04-2011 at 7:13 am

    Simon Warrasch said...

    I predicted 9 of 10 correctly! I predicted Winter’s Bone instead of The Town!

  • 2 1-04-2011 at 7:20 am

    Matthias Zucker said...

    It seems this year had little to offer – everybody’s going the same way. But I do wonder, considering last year’s 10 at the Oscars: Which, if any, of these will be substituted? And for what?

    I have a feeling 127 Hours will not be a BP nominee. Winter’s Bone instead?

  • 3 1-04-2011 at 7:21 am

    The Dude said...

    I’m still thinking Winter’s Bone will end up with an Oscar nom (replacing either 127 Hours or The Town…I’m leaning towards the former). But I think Another Year is out now…it would have really benefited with a mention here.

  • 4 1-04-2011 at 7:22 am

    Maxim said...

    “Subbing “Despicable Me” for “Tangled” in the animated race strikes me as pretty interesting.”

    I don’t find that terribly suprising. Tangled was extremely expensive and, despite general goodwill hasn’t been able to perform quite as well as the much cheaper “Despicable Me”. It makes sense that producers would recognize the latter over the former.

    And it looks like my brave prediction of “Alice In Wonderland” didn’t pan out. Oh well, it’s for the best.

  • 5 1-04-2011 at 7:24 am

    DylanS said...

    Clean sweep! And this is my predicted 10 for BP as well, cause there isn’t always a split, and I don’t think there will be one.

  • 6 1-04-2011 at 7:25 am

    Maxim said...

    By the way, just saw that the producers gave an award to Cameron. Can’t remember if it’s new or not but quite a year for him.

  • 7 1-04-2011 at 7:26 am

    Andrej said...

    Aw, shucks. I kinda expected Winter’s Bone to get in since it was made for a low low budget and still delivered proportionally nice earnings.

    I’m not so sure for why they’d go for 127 Hours (production values, maybe?), but anyways. Maybe this will pick up the movie from the ground.

  • 8 1-04-2011 at 7:27 am

    Graysmith said...

    Yawn.

    At least the WGA nominees won’t be the same old, same old, on account of their ineligibilities.

  • 9 1-04-2011 at 7:30 am

    Maxim said...

    I think that the single biggest take away of all of this is that The Town has strength and together with 127 it’s the film to get the biggest boost to it’s Oscar compaign.

  • 10 1-04-2011 at 7:31 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Yeah, the Milestone Award for Cameron and the David O. Selznick Award for Rudin were announced a few months ago.

    This is a firm line-up. I don’t see much logic behind Winter’s Bone getting in, unless it somehow manages DGA recognition. Last year Invictus seemed firm after the PGA but there isn’t really something like The Blind Side waiting to surprise and A Serious Man was a slightly different situation than Winter’s Bone.

    I think we have our 10.

  • 11 1-04-2011 at 7:43 am

    Maxim said...

    That’s right, I remember now. Thanks.

    I agree that this is very likely the line-up we will see at the Oscars but I can’t help but wonder if “Winter’s Bone” can still benefit from the bigger academy pool and the Actor’s Branch in particular.

    Could it be that Producers nominated the Town for reasons that are different (i.e. an underdog success) from what a typical Oscar voter would see fit to recognize (what I like and what I think is great)?

    Again, I am not really doubting the 10, it just seems that if were were to consider a weak link – now would be the time.

  • 12 1-04-2011 at 7:47 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    A great many Oscar voters like The Town and think it is great. In a more precarious spot is 127 Hours, which a great many won’t watch. But I’m pretty sold on this set. If Winter’s Bone gets some below-the-line guild recognition, then I’ll start to wonder.

  • 13 1-04-2011 at 7:53 am

    Chris said...

    I’ve heard the same thing about how many Oscar voters enjoy The Town. I think it’s solidly the #9 nominee. It’s 127 Hours vs Winters Bone for the final spot.

  • 14 1-04-2011 at 7:53 am

    Maxim said...

    That makes sense. I actually agree that 127 Hours is likely in a more difficult spot of the two but I had a harder time finding away to, I guess, rationalize why it was nominated.

    Actually what Andrej’s mention of the production values (and the production itself) might be very wise.

  • 15 1-04-2011 at 7:53 am

    Ky said...

    PGA says no to overrated poverty porn!

  • 16 1-04-2011 at 7:56 am

    Maxim said...

    Maybe if we had the Executive Prioducers Guild of America the results would have been slightly different ;) .

  • 17 1-04-2011 at 7:57 am

    Maxim said...

    KY, no they went for the suffering kind instead. It gets them every time.

  • 18 1-04-2011 at 7:58 am

    BenitoDelicias said...

    Two good things: no Winter’s Bone and Despicable Me beats Tangled.

  • 19 1-04-2011 at 8:17 am

    Alex (in Movieland) said...

    I got 10/10 at Awardsdaily’s contest.

    not that it was difficult :P

  • 20 1-04-2011 at 8:51 am

    Loyal said...

    That PGA lineup looks solid for the BP 10. I can see Winter’s Bone going guild-less, maybe the DGA will rescue it.

  • 21 1-04-2011 at 9:02 am

    mikey67 said...

    I can understand why the producers would like The Town, but I don’t understand the more general love for this film. The Blind Side at least shined as a middle-of-the-road genre pic for the masses, but I didn’t think The Town was at all interesting or memorable. I was disappointed given all the hype. Seemed like a derivative of The Departed. Rebecca Hall is always a pleasure to watch, but the character didn’t make any sense to me. Don’t get the love for Renner’s performance either.

  • 22 1-04-2011 at 9:11 am

    Ben M. said...

    Line-up was just as I expected, but my guess is we get a 9/10 split at the academy with Winter’s Bone knocking out 127 Hours.

    I have just recently been thinking that Illusionist will miss out in animated feature (didn’t seem to quite get the reviews I was expecting), but I still like Tangled’s chances a bit more than Despicable Me despite Despicable Me’s amazing B.O. Though the animated feature category often seems to be surprising, given the category’s history I could even see it being Despicable Me and Illusionist knocking out both Tangled and How to Train Your Dragon.

  • 23 1-04-2011 at 9:14 am

    JJ1 said...

    I still thought that Shutter Island might possibly pop-up, here. I guess it’s Top 10 chances are all, but dead, now.

  • 24 1-04-2011 at 9:48 am

    Mark said...

    Sad that The Way Back has been ignored, still have fingers crossed for a nod for Ed Harris.

  • 25 1-04-2011 at 9:56 am

    Drew said...

    I wish Marwencol would get more awards attention. That was probably more inspiring to me than King’s Speech was.

  • 26 1-04-2011 at 10:12 am

    Paul Outlaw said...

    Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawkes have those SAG nominations to consider, so Winter’s Bone is not completely guild-less at this point.

  • 27 1-04-2011 at 10:18 am

    ann said...

    WGA announced their nominees !!

  • 28 1-04-2011 at 10:21 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    They’ve been posted!!

  • 29 1-04-2011 at 10:23 am

    red_wine said...

    They must have really liked 127 hours. Why else would they vote for a box office disaster – its certainly the no Hurt Locker, the most celebrated film of the year type of thing.

    Or maybe it was PGA in full auto-pilot mode. Winter’s Bone might be this year’s A Serious Man. Its the second most acclaimed American film of the year (just like A Serious Man to last year’s The Hurt Locker) and it will likely have only a writing nom to go along with, again like A Serious Man.

    Winter’s Bone is the pride of the indie sector, a good film, even a very good film made for the bare minimum of resources yet a showcase for quality world-class film-making. The Academy will seem a bit better if it were to nominate it.

    The Town on the other hand seems such a throw-away spot for one of the year’s best film. I mean come on.

  • 30 1-04-2011 at 11:04 am

    Speaking English said...

    The predictability of this is not helped by the fact 2010 was an unusually weak year for film, and with ten open spots it seems everything that was slightly good has a chance to get in. Which is another reason we need to go back to five nominees, when the category actually had prestige and competition.

  • 31 1-04-2011 at 11:12 am

    Maxim said...

    SE, now you’re speaking my language :) .

  • 32 1-04-2011 at 11:25 am

    Eli said...

    Despicable Me over Tangled is a travesty.

  • 33 1-04-2011 at 11:56 am

    Andrej said...

    I agree with red_wine, though I don’t mind that much about The Town’s nod. It has snowballed enough to be placed there, it’s 127 Hours that baffles me a bit.

  • 34 1-04-2011 at 12:02 pm

    Speaking English said...

    Why is “127 Hours” baffling? It’s just a really good film, really well made.

  • 35 1-04-2011 at 12:38 pm

    Andrej said...

    To be honest, I haven’t seen it yet, so I can’t comment on how good it is :( That’s why I wondered if production and technical values had an influence, as if from an artistic point of view, the money had been really well spent.

    My baffling comes from how it got there, since it has a low box office, and there are a bunch of academy members who just won’t see it.

  • 36 1-04-2011 at 12:41 pm

    DylanS said...

    “127 Hours” may be difficult for some to watch, but that doesn’t automatically mean they’re going to write it off as a bad film. I think with this nom, the support for Franco, and Boyle’s current popularity with the Academy, it will get in to BP.

  • 37 1-04-2011 at 12:48 pm

    Mike said...

    I’m so upset that Tangled didn’t make it. Despicable Me was so average and the animation was ugly. Tangled was beautiful and amazing.

  • 38 1-04-2011 at 4:29 pm

    PalCinema said...

    “Winter’s Bone” bored me… I’m glad it didn’t make it in! I’m pulling for “127 Hours.”

  • 39 1-04-2011 at 5:46 pm

    Glenn said...

    “The predictability of this is not helped by the fact 2010 was an unusually weak year for film, and with ten open spots it seems everything that was slightly good has a chance to get in.”

    Ya know what’s boring? Reading this over and over again. Just because all these awards bodies can only find ten movies they liked doesn’t mean there isn’t a whole swag of other great titles out there.