In Contention

Tag: Winter’s Bone

  • Weekly predictions update

    As you may have noticed, my long-delayed Best of 2010 feature went up earlier today, and I’ve been enjoying your generous response thus far. It does, however, come in lieu of this week’s Long Shot column: there are only so many hours in the day, and frankly, it’s getting increasingly difficult to find any fresh angle on a race that’s virtually congealing before our eyes.

    This week’s guild announcements thus far certainly haven’t moved the needle much one way or the other — but they might have closed a couple of remote avenues. Though I haven’t a column to accompany them today, I did do some minor tidying and rearranging of furniture on my predictions page.

    I find myself drifting a little closer to the consensus each week, though I’m clinging to my long-held hunch that “Winter’s Bone” will endure, and even surprise, in a couple of major categories, while many of the technical categories remain intriguingly wobbly. (Where are the Best Costume Design fillers? You just know that field is going to turn up something weird.)

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  • Watching and waiting: Guy’s best and worst of 2010

    What kind of year was 2010 at the movies? You tell me. It’s virtually impossible to find one yardstick to measure 365 days of cinema for a collective audience whose interests seem ever more segregated.

    If your film interests are covered largely by the multiplex, chances are 2010 was an unusually unrewarding year for you, challenging even Hollywood’s standard quota of déjà vu — unless, of course, you’re an animation fiend, in which case there was a broad enough range of carefully crafted work to keep you happy.

    If you tend to bypass the mall on your way to the arthouse, however, there was any amount of adventurous indie and world cinema, both newly unveiled and backlogged from previous years, to chew on — if, of course, you’re privileged enough to live in a regrettably narrow radius. And if you’re an Academy voter sifting through the crop of generously campaigned prestige fare, 2010 looks rather like the usual, only a little more so.

    For me, 2010 was both immeasurably improved and somewhat complicated by the festival circuit — access to which is a luxury I shall never take for granted, but also one that inevitably skews my sense of how the film yearbook reads in the real world. When you’ve had access to most of the big-ticket winter warmers by early autumn, and when the likes of Cannes afford you a head start of many months or even years on certain international art films, things rather lose their shape.

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  • PGA nominates the expected

    Look to your right, at Kris’s current Best Picture predictions. Now look at the list of 10 films just nominated for the Producers Guild of America’s top award. Ready for a quick game of Spot the Difference? It’ll be very quick — there are none. (Kris’s hopes yesterday for one wild-card nod were in vain.)

    The PGA could hardly have stuck any more closely to the script with this morning’s announcement, which points to a rapidly solidifying race three weeks ahead of the Oscar nominations. Still, questions remain, and I’d still bet against the Academy following this list precisely to the letter.

    Among the titles left off the PGA’s list is “Winter’s Bone,” but the microbudget no-name indie was never likely to score with these guys. Will passion votes still propel it into the Oscar Ten — and if so, among the presumed stragglers, will “127 Hours” or “The Town” make way?

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  • THE LONG SHOT: A new year wishlist

    [Guy’s updated predictions here.]

    Okay, I won’t lie to you: I initially conceived this column in my head last week as a Christmas Eve wishlist, but then got too busy mulling wine and Christmas shopping in Dublin snowdrifts to actually write it.

    So a New Year’s Eve wishlist it is, then. Under either name, with the season currently in stasis until January’s Guild awards usher in the next phase of competition, here’s a list of ten open requests (or distant hopes) for Academy members currently hemming and hawing over their ballots.

    Go forth into the world: Okay, I’ve given up my fight for a foreign-language Best Picture contender for yet another year. And despite a banner year for the form, a documentary nominee ain’t happening either. But is it too much to ask the Academy to recognize that not all notable filmmaking happens within U.S. borders? We’re looking at the sad likelihood of 90% of the Best Picture race being given over to American productions, with the lone exception, “The King’s Speech,” about as authentically British as a “Mind the Gap” T-shirt. Wouldn’t “Another Year” or “Animal Kingdom” be slightly more interesting stamps in Oscar’s passport?

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  • 77 scores competing for Oscar, ‘Toy Story 3’ not among them

    They may have enjoyed a three-year run of nominations in the category, finally taking the gold with “Up” earlier this year, but Pixar’s hot streak in Best Original Score will not continue at the 2010 Oscars. Although Randy Newman’s “Toy Story 3” score wasn’t ruled ineligible by the Academy — unlike his work on last year’s “The Princess and the Frog,” which faced a late disqualification — Newman himself has opted not to enter it in the race.

    Pixar’s latest therefore joins a number of high-profile titles on the bench in this category, including the previously disqualified likes of “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Tangled” and the Carter Burwell double-shot of “True Grit” and “The Kids Are All Right.”

    As Steve Pond points out, the official list of 77 films competing for Best Original Score makes for easily the narrowest field of the general categories. The good news, however, is that most of the names we most want to see recognized are still on it, including Daft Punk for “TRON Legacy,” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for “The Social Network,” Sylvain Chomet for “The Illusionist” and arguable frontrunner Hans Zimmer for “Inception.”

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  • FIRST-HALF FYC: Best Actress

    The fifth column in our new seasonal series — if you haven’t got the drill by now, we’re rounding up the most Oscar-worthy work from the oft-overlooked first half of the year — wraps up the performance categories with by far the most competitive race of all. Conventional wisdom has it that Best Actress is the most crowded field of this year’s awards derby, and as I looked over the January-to-June release schedule, I realized that’s just as true of the early birds.

    Where I admit I had embroider a little to make up five-strong fields in one or two other categories, this week’s task found me scratching my head over who to leave out. Many of the year’s most lavishly acclaimed performances jostled for position: Kim Hye-ja may have taken the Los Angeles critics’ honors, but as much as I love the demented commitment of her performance in “Mother,” I was surprised to find myself leaving her on the sidelines. Tilda Swinton is on near-peak form in “I Am Love,” and yet she too finds herself in the honorable mention category.

    I was all prepared to court controversy by citing Julianne Moore’s exemplary work in Atom Egoyan’s otherwise negligible “Chloe,” but there just wasn’t room to be that playful; in a regular year, “Father of My Children” star Chiara Caselli would easily have figured in at the halfway mark. Others might make cases for Noomi Rapace or Giovanna Mezzogiorno, and I’m still hamstrung by not having had access to “Everyone Else.” The bottom line is: there was a lot to sift through before arriving at the five names below. May future years also be this good to the ladies.

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  • Inevitable list of WGA ineligibilities surfaces

    Steve Pond is on the news today that a number of this year’s screenplays will be ineligible for WGA consideration (and therefore should be kept in mind when nominations are revealed next week).

    First and foremost, we all know Pixar films never fall under WGA signatory regulations, so Michael Arndt’s work on “Toy Story 3” will not be in the mix for Best Adapted Screenplay.  Nor will fellow animated contender “How to Train Your Dragon.”  Also perennially ineligible is Mike Leigh, who works outside of the guild’s procedures, so “Another Year” won’t be showing up in the original field.

    Joining Arndt on the adapted sidelines will be “Winter’s Bone,” while “Blue Valentine” and potential winner “The King’s Speech” won’t be eligible for original consideration.

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  • What came after “the year of the woman?”

    This time last year, we were still in the thick of a long-running “year of the woman” narrative, as female filmmakers enjoyed critical, festival and box-office success, plus an unprecedentedly high profile in the awards season –culminating in that history-making Best Director win for Kathryn Bigelow (as well as a Best Picture nod for Lone Scherfig’s “An Education”).

    Once the dust had settled on Bigelow’s Oscar, however, the narrative tailed off a bit; with that particular blip on their conscience eased, the industry at large could go back to business as usual. Right?

    Well, perhaps not. Although there’s been no major name like Bigelow for the media to make into a wider cause or mascot, when put under the microscope, 2010 has proved a quietly successful year for female filmmakers after all. Although none have managed the box-office presence that Nora Ephron and Nancy Meyers had in 2009, women in the indie sector have taken the baton from Bigelow and kept running.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Macro/micro

    I decided to update the Contenders section this week by addressing things (mostly) as they seem to stand in the wake of the critics’ awards circuit of the last two weeks.  Save for this or that personal hunch (like buying into Guy’s shrewd proposition that the BAFTA contingent could help Lesley Manville over the hump, or keeping in mind, over all, that critics don’t vote for Oscars), I think it’s fairly representative.

    I don’t have a lot to offer in the way of a column this week.  The race as it stands is how you see it.  There are pockets of advocacy growing louder and louder out there, but I’m waiting for guilds to chime in and for studios to decide if they are in it to win it (and it becomes clearer and clearer who is and who isn’t, by the way).

    Ballots will go out a week from today.  Voters will have, presumably, spent the Thanksgiving and upcoming Christmas holidays digging into screeners and catching up on this or that.  The precursors have illuminated a few paths they may not have taken (precious few, though), but mainly they’ve demanded viewings of 11 films in play for 10 Best Picture slots.  What will the small screen do for these contenders?

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  • Best in show 2010: the year in superlatives

    The week, and with it, the bulk of my 2010 coverage, draws to a close today with a look at the best of the best. I’m offering up a personal list of superlatives, including most Oscar categories and some other fun fields thrown in for good measure. A tradition at this point.

    There will be plenty going on next week, though, despite travel and the holidays. As always, we’ll be at your disposal. But allow me to put a tidy bow on the year here and keep forging ahead…

    Best Picture
    “Exit Through the Gift Shop”

    Best Director
    Mike Leigh, “Another Year”

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  • ‘Social Network’ leads Chicago critics’ nods, wins in Detroit

    I’ll give you a moment to recover from the shock. [Moment.] There, may I continue? Of the B-list critics’ awards, the Chicago Film Critics’ Association attracts more eyeballs than most, largely because it’s Roger Ebert’s stomping ground — though the list of nominees they announced this morning suggests a lot of autopilot voting with a few welcome flashes of inspiration.

    “The Social Network” tops their list with eight bids, including slightly less obvious mentions for Armie Hammer and DP Jeff Cronenweth, while their matchy-matchy Picture and Director lists include such ubiquitous titles as “Black Swan,” “The King’s Speech,” “Winter’s Bone” (nice get for Debra Granik there) and, perhaps less predictably from a critics’ group, “Inception.”

    Surprises are in short supply in the acting categories–though it’s nice to see some respect for Lesley Manville after a rough week on the precursor trail–and in Best Foreign Language Film, where a group of actual film critics somehow sees fit to nominate “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” alongside the likes of “Mother” and “A Prophet.”

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  • If I had a ballot

    The year is winding down.  Today, as part of the week’s on-going year-in-review specials, I’m offering up my annual “if I had a ballot” post.

    In years past I’ve tended to defer to studio campaigns for category placement, but this year I figured, “Screw it.”  After all, if I actually had a ballot I could call the shots.  So I have.

    You’re familiar with my Best Picture line-up by now.  I’ve opted out of the Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary categories because there are a few films I’d rather have seen before making that call, but otherwise, it’s the usual Oscar fields with an ensemble category tacked on.

    Feel free to post up your own selections, if you have them, in the comments section below.  And remember to check back Friday as I close up shop on 2010 with my list of superlatives.  For now, check out my personal ballot after the jump.

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  • FIRST HALF FYC: Best Screenplay (Original and Adapted)

    For the third episode in our new Oscar-season feature, we take a recess from the acting races and look instead to the screenplays that roped the actors in to begin with. If you’re new to the feature (or even if you aren’t), the game is simple: railing against awards voters’ usual bias towards late-year releases, we’re highlighting a ballot’s worth of notable contenders in each major category, from films released in the first half of the year.

    I’ve been doing the categories on a one-by-one basis, but today I’m doubling down and covering both the Original and Adapted Screenplay races. This is partly in order to squeeze in everything I want to cover before Oscar nomination morning, but also partly because one of the categories proved less than rewarding on its own: starting with the adaptations and finding the pickings so slim, I decided that a beefier post was to be created from twinning the categories.

    That’s not to dismiss the films and screenplays I’ve selected, even the least of which offer substantial points of interest — and for which I still have more affection than some of the bigger names being  tossed into the Oscar ring. Indeed, the films in this list that don’t entirely click for me are no less (and often more) intriguing than those that do.

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  • ‘Black Swan’ leads BFCA field with a record 12 nominations

    The most striking thing about this year’s slate of BFCA nominations is that, to go by the films listed in the various categories, apparently there were only 30 or so movies released this year. And most categories were dominated by the same five films, which is disappointing, if a bit predictable.

    When the organization added below-the-line categories last year, though, it was probably asking for this kind of distillation. I’m not sure a great many of the membership knows from quality sound in a motion picture, but this is their (our — I am a member) platform. You’ll see my ballot Wednesday, but it’s considerably different than this.

    Anyway, “Black Swan” led the field with a record 12 nominations. “The King’s Speech” and “True Grit” weren’t far behind with 11 each. “Inception” netted 10, “The Social Network” landed nine and “127 Hours” nailed down eight. Those are clearly the favorites throughout.

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  • Predict the LA and NY critics’ awards

    Tomorrow brings out the big guns in the critics’ awards derby, as the Los Angeles Film Critics’ Circle unveil their picks, with the New York Film Critics’ Circle following on Monday. (I believe the less prestigious but often interesting New York Online crix are announcing tomorrow too.)

    I offered some thoughts on the significance of these awards in this week’s Long Shot column. As for predictions, Kris and I both offered our best guesses in the top six categories over at Tom O’Neil’s Gold Derby site, so check ’em out there.

    I seem to be out on a limb with my LAFCA Best Picture prediction (though at least Sasha Stone thinks I’m onto something) — after last year’s overwhelming consensus among the critics’ groups, I can’t help sensing at least one of the majors will want to assert their individuality.

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  • WEEKLY WRAP: The circuit takes hold, chatting up DiCaprio and Harris, top 10 lists

    • The week started off with “How to Train Your Dragon” predictably dominating the slate of Annie Award nominations.

    • Kris sat down with Leonardo DiCaprio and got Martin Scorsese on the phone for a large two–part piece on the actor and his impressive year.

    • He also caught up with actor Ed Harris to talk “The Way Back” and director Peter Weir.

    • It was good and bad news for The Weinstein Company as “Blue Valentine” won its ratings appeal with the MPAA, while “The King’s Speech”‘s was shot down.

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  • ‘Winter’s Bone’ leads Detroit critics nods with six

    This is a somewhat more interesting set of nominations, even if it is flowing in the general current of the season for the most part.  I like the love for Gosling and even Edgar Wright (despite my feelings on the film).  Have a look at the full slate at The Circuit.

  • OSCAR TALK: Ep. 44 — The top 10 films of 2010 (x2)

    Oscar TalkWelcome to Oscar Talk.

    In case you’re new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar’s stage and we’re here to address it all as it unfolds.

    It’s the middle of the season, critics’ awards are set to unleash next week, the guild announcements are right around the corner, the holidays are breathing down our necks and it couldn’t be a busier time of year. There’s plenty to discuss, but Anne and I are nevertheless straying from the usual format this week…

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