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Tomorrow brings out the big guns in the critics’ awards derby, as the Los Angeles Film Critics’ Circle unveil their picks, with the New York Film Critics’ Circle following on Monday. (I believe the less prestigious but often interesting New York Online crix are announcing tomorrow too.)
I offered some thoughts on the significance of these awards in this week’s Long Shot column. As for predictions, Kris and I both offered our best guesses in the top six categories over at Tom O’Neil’s Gold Derby site, so check ‘em out there.
I seem to be out on a limb with my LAFCA Best Picture prediction (though at least Sasha Stone thinks I’m onto something) — after last year’s overwhelming consensus among the critics’ groups, I can’t help sensing at least one of the majors will want to assert their individuality.
As for the remaining categories, “The Social Network” seems the best bet for screenplay honors from both groups, while I think “Inside Job” is likely to emerge as the consensus critical favorite for Best Documentary. LAFCA and particularly the NYFCC aren’t nearly as wedded to Pixar in the Best Animated Feature category as the Academy, so I expect to see “The Illusionist” spring a semi-surprise with either group. (Particularly if, as many are predicting, “Toy Story 3″ takes the top prize on the west coast — the Los Angelenos similarly divided their loyalties between “WALL-E” and “Waltz With Bashir” in 2008.)
Best Foreign Language Film is a total crapshoot, though both groups tend to favor titles not in the Oscar hunt. Let’s say, oh, “I Am Love” for LA and “White Material” for the New Yorkers.
Which way do feel the wind blowing? Spill your predictions and/or general musings below.
20 responses so far
1 12-11-2010 at 8:15 am
Dominik said...
I predict “Carlos” will win Best Foreign Language at both Circle Groups.
“The King´s Speech” for the win in LA, “Another Year” in NY.
“Social Network” wins Best Director in NY and sweeps the Screenplay-category.
Natalie Portman in LA, Lesley Manville in NY, Colin Firth LA and Jesse Eisenberg NY.
And Ruth Sheen as the surprise Supp. Actress-winner in NY.
2 12-11-2010 at 8:29 am
Guy Lodge said...
Carlos isn’t really a foreign-language film — the bulk of the dialogue is in English.
3 12-11-2010 at 8:29 am
Ibad said...
LA:
Film – The Social Network
Director – David Fincher
Actor – Jesse Eisenberg or Javier Bardem
Actress – Lesley Manville
Supporting Actor – John Hawkes or Christian Bale
Supporting Actress – Olivia Williams
Screenplay – The Social Network
Animated – Toy Story 3
Foreign – A Prophet
NY:
Film – The Social Network
Director – Danny Boyle
Actor – Stephen Dorff
Actress – Lesley Manville
Supporting Actor – Andrew Garfield or Christian Bale
Supporting Actress – Jacki Weaver
Screenplay – The Social Network
Animated – The Illusionist
Foreign – Carlos
4 12-11-2010 at 8:35 am
red_wine said...
LA
Picture: Winter’s Bone (This prediction makes sense Guy)
Director: David Fincher
Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin
Actor: James Franco
Actress: Nicole Kidman
Supp Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Supp Actress: Olivia Williams
Production Design: Monsters
Cinematography: Enter The Void
Music: The Illusionist
Animated: The Illusionist
Documentary: Exit Through The Gift Shop
Foreign: A Prophet
NY
Picture: The Social Network
Director: Mike Leigh
Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin
Actor: Jesse Eisenberg
Actress: Julianne Moore
Supp Actor: Andrew Garfield
Supp Actress: Leslie Manville
Cinematography: The Social Network
Animated: Toy Story 3
Documentary: Inside Job
Foreign: Dogtooth
5 12-11-2010 at 8:35 am
kel said...
New York
Best Actor – Jesse Eisenberg
Best Actress – Lesley Manville
Best Supp Actor – Christian Bale
Best Supp Actress – Melissa Leo
Best Director – David Fincher
Best Screenplay – Mike Leigh
Best Picture – The Social Network
Best Animation – Toy Story 3
Best Documentary – Restrepo
Best Foreign Film – Incendies
Best Cinematography – True Grit
Los Angeles
Best Actor – Jesse Eisenberg
Best Actress – Tilda Swinton
Best Supp Actor – Sean Penn
Best Supp Actress – Melissa Leo
Best Director – David Fincher
Best Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
Best Picture – Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Film – Incendies
Best Documentary – Inside Job
Best Animation – How to Train Your Dragon
Best Cinematography – True Grit
6 12-11-2010 at 9:07 am
Harmonica said...
LA
Best Picture: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Best Director: David Fincher (THE SOCIAL NETWORK)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (TRUE GRIT)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (BLACK SWAN)
Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield (THE SOCIAL NETWORK)
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Stanfield (TRUE GRIT)
New York
Best Picture: THE FIGHTER
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (BLACK SWAN)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (THE KING’S SPEECH)
Best Actress: Lesley Manville (ANOTHER YEAR)
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (THE FIGHTER)
Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter (THE KING’S SPEECH)
These predictions sound really far-fetched, and they are. I basically just kept writing as I went along remembering movies this year. The level of my predictions range from “certain” (the two BP wins) to “gosh, I really hope this happens” (Darren Aronofsky winning BD in NY)
Three movies I’d still look out for (but am too much of a chicken to actually put them in my predictions): SHUTTER ISLAND, THE TOWN and BLUE VALENTINE. I have a feeling one of these awards groups, if not both, will want to give one of these films a much needed boost.
7 12-11-2010 at 9:17 am
Paul Outlaw said...
NY:
Picture – Another Year
Director – David Fincher
Actress – Lesley Manville
Actor – Colin Firth
Supporting Actor – Christian Bale
Supporting Actress – Jacki Weaver
Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
Animated Feature – The Illusionist
LA:
Picture – The Social Network
Director – David Fincher
Actress – Nicole Kidman
Actor – Colin Firth
Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell
Supporting Actress – Melissa Leo
Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
Animated Feature – Toy Story 3
8 12-11-2010 at 10:44 am
yuhheu said...
I want surprises like “Toy Story 3″ winning Best Picture or Darren Aronofsky taking Director.
And, please, BLACK SWAN, the one and only BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR. The box office is a certain proof of the excitation that this film has created in the audience. And because Natalie Portman gives THE PERFORMANCE OF HER CAREER.
9 12-11-2010 at 10:44 am
/3rtfu11 said...
I can only predict institutions that are predictable – The Globes, The Academy and SAG.
10 12-11-2010 at 11:37 am
Kevin K. said...
LA
Best Picture: Toy Story 3
Best Director: David Fincher
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Winter’s Bone
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
NY
Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
11 12-11-2010 at 11:43 am
Evan said...
NY
Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor: John Hawkes
Supp. Actress: Melissa Leo
Pic:The King’s Speech
Dir: Mike Leigh
Screenplay: Mike Leigh
Animation: The Illusionist
Foreign Film: Carlos
Documentary: Inside Job
Cinematography: True Grit
LA
Actor: James Franco
Actress: Natalie Portman
Supp Actor: Christian Bale
Supp Actress: Halie Steinfield
Pic: The Social Network
Dir: Darren Aronofsky
Screenplay: Another Year
Foreign Film: Carlos
Documentary: Restrepo
Animation: Toy Story 3
Cinematography: True Grit
12 12-11-2010 at 11:46 am
cineJAB said...
LA:
Film – Inception
Director – Darren Aronofsky
Actor – Colin Firth
Actress – Nicole Kidman
Supporting Actor – Andrew Garfield
Supporting Actress – Marion Cotillard
NY:
Film – Black Swan
Director – Martin Scorsese
Actor – Ryan Gosling
Actress – Michelle Williams
Supporting Actor – Christian Bale
Supporting Actress – Marion Cotillard
PS does anyone know if the Red Riding films are qualified for the Oscars or any other awards? Not that i think it could happen, I’m just curious.
13 12-11-2010 at 12:31 pm
Jake D said...
LA
Best Picture: Winter’s Bone
Best Director: David Fincher
Best Actor: James Franco
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
NY
Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
14 12-11-2010 at 1:08 pm
Edwin Drood said...
Given the reviews from both coasts and nearly everywhere in between it just wouldn’t make sense if any film other than “The Social Network” won both of these groups’ best picture awards. I’m looking for some “surprises” in other categories from LA and NY – a foreign language performanceand/or Nicole Kidman for best actress, perhaps a shut-out of the cast of “The Fighter”…
15 12-11-2010 at 1:11 pm
Guy Lodge said...
cineJAB: As initial TV productions, they’re not eligible for the Oscars.
16 12-11-2010 at 1:21 pm
Umur Tas said...
LA
Best Picture: The Social Network or Toy Story 3
Best Director: David Fincher
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Sıpporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
NY
Best Picture: The Social Network, Black Swan or The Fighter
Best Director: David Fincher or Darren Aronofsky
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Sıpporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animation: Toy Story 3
17 12-11-2010 at 1:23 pm
Keil Shults said...
LAFCA
Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher
Best Actor: James Franco
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supp. Actor: John Hawkes
Best Supp. Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Restrepo
Best Foreign Film: A Prophet
NYFCC
Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky
Best Actor: Ryan Gosling
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supp. Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supp. Actress: Jackie Weaver
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: True Grt
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Foreign Film: Carlos
18 12-11-2010 at 1:42 pm
Lenny said...
Los Angeles Film Critics
Best Picture: 127 Hours
Best Director: David Fincher = The Social Network
Best Actor: James Franco = 127 Hours
Best Actress: Natalie Portman = Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes = Winter’s Bone
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver = Animal Kingdom
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Waiting for Superman
Best Foreign Film: I Am Love
New York Film Critics Circle
Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher = The Social Network
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg = The Social Network
Best Actress: Lesley Manville = Another Year
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale = The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Dianne Wiest = Rabbit Hole
Best Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: Shutter Island
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Foreign Film: Carlos
Honestly, I have no idea who’s gonna win as I’m sure no one else does either. However, I find it hard to believe that The Social Network won’t win with one of these two groups.
19 12-11-2010 at 3:33 pm
Loyal said...
LAFCA
Best Film – Inception, runner-up Toy Story 3
Best Director – David Fincher, runner-up Christopher Nolan
Best Actor – Colin Firth, runner-up James Franco
Best Actress – Natalie Portman, runner-up Lesley Manville
Best Supporting Actor – Christina Bale, runner-up Geoffrey Rush
Best Supporting Actress – Hailee Steinfeld, runner-up Barbara Hershey
Best Screenplay – Inception, runner-up The Social Network
Best Cinematography – True Grit, runner-up Inception
Best Production Design – Inception, runner-up Tron Legacy
Best Score – The Social Network, runner-up Inception
Best Foreign Film – Biutiful, runner-up Uncle Boonmee
Best Documentary – Waiting for Superman, runner-up Inside Job
Best Animation – Toy Story 3, runner-up How To Train Your Dragon
NYFCC
Best Film – The Social Network
Best Director – David Fincher
Best Actor – Jeff Bridges
Best Actress – Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor – Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress – Hailee Steinfeld
Best Screenplay – The Social Network
Best Cinematography – Inception
Best Animated Film – How To Train Your Dragon
Best Documentary – Inside Job
Best Foreign Film – Biutiful
20 12-12-2010 at 10:51 am
Alberto said...
I think people are underestimating Mike Leigh’s Another Year, specially in NY. They gave him a Best Director Award (and a Best Actress for Sally Hawkins) two years ago for Happy-Go-Lucky, a less satisfying film than Another Year. I think he’ll be named best director and I hope Lesley Manville to prevail too.
I go for Hailee Steinfeld for BSA in LA. They like young performers. After all, they were the first to honour Anna Paquin’s performance in The Piano.
Here is my list of Predictions for both groups:
http://imitationlife.wordpress.com/2010/12/12/2010-lafca-and-nyfcc-awards-predictions/