Predict the LA and NY critics’ awards

Posted by · 7:58 am · December 11th, 2010

Tomorrow brings out the big guns in the critics’ awards derby, as the Los Angeles Film Critics’ Circle unveil their picks, with the New York Film Critics’ Circle following on Monday. (I believe the less prestigious but often interesting New York Online crix are announcing tomorrow too.)

I offered some thoughts on the significance of these awards in this week’s Long Shot column. As for predictions, Kris and I both offered our best guesses in the top six categories over at Tom O’Neil’s Gold Derby site, so check ’em out there.

I seem to be out on a limb with my LAFCA Best Picture prediction (though at least Sasha Stone thinks I’m onto something) — after last year’s overwhelming consensus among the critics’ groups, I can’t help sensing at least one of the majors will want to assert their individuality.

As for the remaining categories, “The Social Network” seems the best bet for screenplay honors from both groups, while I think “Inside Job” is likely to emerge as the consensus critical favorite for Best Documentary. LAFCA and particularly the NYFCC  aren’t nearly as wedded to Pixar in the Best Animated Feature category as the Academy, so I expect to see “The Illusionist” spring a semi-surprise with either group. (Particularly if, as many are predicting, “Toy Story 3” takes the top prize on the west coast — the Los Angelenos similarly divided their loyalties between “WALL-E” and “Waltz With Bashir” in 2008.)

Best Foreign Language Film is a total crapshoot, though both groups tend to favor titles not in the Oscar hunt. Let’s say, oh, “I Am Love” for LA and “White Material” for the New Yorkers.

Which way do feel the wind blowing? Spill your predictions and/or general musings below.




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20 responses so far

  • 1 12-11-2010 at 8:15 am

    Dominik said...

    I predict “Carlos” will win Best Foreign Language at both Circle Groups.
    “The King´s Speech” for the win in LA, “Another Year” in NY.
    “Social Network” wins Best Director in NY and sweeps the Screenplay-category.
    Natalie Portman in LA, Lesley Manville in NY, Colin Firth LA and Jesse Eisenberg NY.
    And Ruth Sheen as the surprise Supp. Actress-winner in NY.

  • 2 12-11-2010 at 8:29 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Carlos isn’t really a foreign-language film — the bulk of the dialogue is in English.

  • 3 12-11-2010 at 8:29 am

    Ibad said...

    LA:
    Film – The Social Network
    Director – David Fincher
    Actor – Jesse Eisenberg or Javier Bardem
    Actress – Lesley Manville
    Supporting Actor – John Hawkes or Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress – Olivia Williams
    Screenplay – The Social Network
    Animated – Toy Story 3
    Foreign – A Prophet

    NY:
    Film – The Social Network
    Director – Danny Boyle
    Actor – Stephen Dorff
    Actress – Lesley Manville
    Supporting Actor – Andrew Garfield or Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress – Jacki Weaver
    Screenplay – The Social Network
    Animated – The Illusionist
    Foreign – Carlos

  • 4 12-11-2010 at 8:35 am

    red_wine said...

    LA

    Picture: Winter’s Bone (This prediction makes sense Guy)
    Director: David Fincher
    Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin
    Actor: James Franco
    Actress: Nicole Kidman
    Supp Actor: Geoffrey Rush
    Supp Actress: Olivia Williams
    Production Design: Monsters
    Cinematography: Enter The Void
    Music: The Illusionist
    Animated: The Illusionist
    Documentary: Exit Through The Gift Shop
    Foreign: A Prophet

    NY

    Picture: The Social Network
    Director: Mike Leigh
    Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin
    Actor: Jesse Eisenberg
    Actress: Julianne Moore
    Supp Actor: Andrew Garfield
    Supp Actress: Leslie Manville
    Cinematography: The Social Network
    Animated: Toy Story 3
    Documentary: Inside Job
    Foreign: Dogtooth

  • 5 12-11-2010 at 8:35 am

    kel said...

    New York
    Best Actor – Jesse Eisenberg
    Best Actress – Lesley Manville
    Best Supp Actor – Christian Bale
    Best Supp Actress – Melissa Leo
    Best Director – David Fincher
    Best Screenplay – Mike Leigh
    Best Picture – The Social Network
    Best Animation – Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary – Restrepo
    Best Foreign Film – Incendies
    Best Cinematography – True Grit

    Los Angeles
    Best Actor – Jesse Eisenberg
    Best Actress – Tilda Swinton
    Best Supp Actor – Sean Penn
    Best Supp Actress – Melissa Leo
    Best Director – David Fincher
    Best Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
    Best Picture – Toy Story 3
    Best Foreign Film – Incendies
    Best Documentary – Inside Job
    Best Animation – How to Train Your Dragon
    Best Cinematography – True Grit

  • 6 12-11-2010 at 9:07 am

    Harmonica said...

    LA
    Best Picture: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
    Best Director: David Fincher (THE SOCIAL NETWORK)
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (TRUE GRIT)
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman (BLACK SWAN)
    Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield (THE SOCIAL NETWORK)
    Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Stanfield (TRUE GRIT)

    New York
    Best Picture: THE FIGHTER
    Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (BLACK SWAN)
    Best Actor: Colin Firth (THE KING’S SPEECH)
    Best Actress: Lesley Manville (ANOTHER YEAR)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (THE FIGHTER)
    Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter (THE KING’S SPEECH)

    These predictions sound really far-fetched, and they are. I basically just kept writing as I went along remembering movies this year. The level of my predictions range from “certain” (the two BP wins) to “gosh, I really hope this happens” (Darren Aronofsky winning BD in NY)

    Three movies I’d still look out for (but am too much of a chicken to actually put them in my predictions): SHUTTER ISLAND, THE TOWN and BLUE VALENTINE. I have a feeling one of these awards groups, if not both, will want to give one of these films a much needed boost.

  • 7 12-11-2010 at 9:17 am

    Paul Outlaw said...

    NY:
    Picture – Another Year
    Director – David Fincher
    Actress – Lesley Manville
    Actor – Colin Firth
    Supporting Actor – Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress – Jacki Weaver
    Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
    Animated Feature – The Illusionist

    LA:
    Picture – The Social Network
    Director – David Fincher
    Actress – Nicole Kidman
    Actor – Colin Firth
    Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell
    Supporting Actress – Melissa Leo
    Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin
    Animated Feature – Toy Story 3

  • 8 12-11-2010 at 10:44 am

    yuhheu said...

    I want surprises like “Toy Story 3” winning Best Picture or Darren Aronofsky taking Director.

    And, please, BLACK SWAN, the one and only BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR. The box office is a certain proof of the excitation that this film has created in the audience. And because Natalie Portman gives THE PERFORMANCE OF HER CAREER.

  • 9 12-11-2010 at 10:44 am

    /3rtfu11 said...

    I can only predict institutions that are predictable – The Globes, The Academy and SAG.

  • 10 12-11-2010 at 11:37 am

    Kevin K. said...

    LA
    Best Picture: Toy Story 3
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Actress: Winter’s Bone
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

    NY
    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: Darren Aronofsky
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

  • 11 12-11-2010 at 11:43 am

    Evan said...

    NY
    Actor: Colin Firth
    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Supp. Actor: John Hawkes
    Supp. Actress: Melissa Leo
    Pic:The King’s Speech
    Dir: Mike Leigh
    Screenplay: Mike Leigh
    Animation: The Illusionist
    Foreign Film: Carlos
    Documentary: Inside Job
    Cinematography: True Grit

    LA
    Actor: James Franco
    Actress: Natalie Portman
    Supp Actor: Christian Bale
    Supp Actress: Halie Steinfield
    Pic: The Social Network
    Dir: Darren Aronofsky
    Screenplay: Another Year
    Foreign Film: Carlos
    Documentary: Restrepo
    Animation: Toy Story 3
    Cinematography: True Grit

  • 12 12-11-2010 at 11:46 am

    cineJAB said...

    LA:
    Film – Inception
    Director – Darren Aronofsky
    Actor – Colin Firth
    Actress – Nicole Kidman
    Supporting Actor – Andrew Garfield
    Supporting Actress – Marion Cotillard

    NY:
    Film – Black Swan
    Director – Martin Scorsese
    Actor – Ryan Gosling
    Actress – Michelle Williams
    Supporting Actor – Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress – Marion Cotillard

    PS does anyone know if the Red Riding films are qualified for the Oscars or any other awards? Not that i think it could happen, I’m just curious.

  • 13 12-11-2010 at 12:31 pm

    Jake D said...

    LA
    Best Picture: Winter’s Bone
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Actor: James Franco
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
    Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

    NY
    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: Darren Aronofsky
    Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3

  • 14 12-11-2010 at 1:08 pm

    Edwin Drood said...

    Given the reviews from both coasts and nearly everywhere in between it just wouldn’t make sense if any film other than “The Social Network” won both of these groups’ best picture awards. I’m looking for some “surprises” in other categories from LA and NY – a foreign language performanceand/or Nicole Kidman for best actress, perhaps a shut-out of the cast of “The Fighter”…

  • 15 12-11-2010 at 1:11 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    cineJAB: As initial TV productions, they’re not eligible for the Oscars.

  • 16 12-11-2010 at 1:21 pm

    Umur Tas said...

    LA
    Best Picture: The Social Network or Toy Story 3
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Best Sıpporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Animation: Toy Story 3

    NY
    Best Picture: The Social Network, Black Swan or The Fighter
    Best Director: David Fincher or Darren Aronofsky
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Sıpporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Animation: Toy Story 3

  • 17 12-11-2010 at 1:23 pm

    Keil Shults said...

    LAFCA

    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Actor: James Franco
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Supp. Actor: John Hawkes
    Best Supp. Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Cinematography: True Grit
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary: Restrepo
    Best Foreign Film: A Prophet

    NYFCC

    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: Darren Aronofsky
    Best Actor: Ryan Gosling
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman
    Best Supp. Actor: Christian Bale
    Best Supp. Actress: Jackie Weaver
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Cinematography: True Grt
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary: Inside Job
    Best Foreign Film: Carlos

  • 18 12-11-2010 at 1:42 pm

    Lenny said...

    Los Angeles Film Critics

    Best Picture: 127 Hours
    Best Director: David Fincher = The Social Network
    Best Actor: James Franco = 127 Hours
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman = Black Swan
    Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes = Winter’s Bone
    Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver = Animal Kingdom
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Cinematography: True Grit
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary: Waiting for Superman
    Best Foreign Film: I Am Love

    New York Film Critics Circle

    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: David Fincher = The Social Network
    Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg = The Social Network
    Best Actress: Lesley Manville = Another Year
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale = The Fighter
    Best Supporting Actress: Dianne Wiest = Rabbit Hole
    Best Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Cinematography: Shutter Island
    Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary: Inside Job
    Best Foreign Film: Carlos

    Honestly, I have no idea who’s gonna win as I’m sure no one else does either. However, I find it hard to believe that The Social Network won’t win with one of these two groups.

  • 19 12-11-2010 at 3:33 pm

    Loyal said...

    LAFCA

    Best Film – Inception, runner-up Toy Story 3
    Best Director – David Fincher, runner-up Christopher Nolan
    Best Actor – Colin Firth, runner-up James Franco
    Best Actress – Natalie Portman, runner-up Lesley Manville
    Best Supporting Actor – Christina Bale, runner-up Geoffrey Rush
    Best Supporting Actress – Hailee Steinfeld, runner-up Barbara Hershey
    Best Screenplay – Inception, runner-up The Social Network
    Best Cinematography – True Grit, runner-up Inception
    Best Production Design – Inception, runner-up Tron Legacy
    Best Score – The Social Network, runner-up Inception
    Best Foreign Film – Biutiful, runner-up Uncle Boonmee
    Best Documentary – Waiting for Superman, runner-up Inside Job
    Best Animation – Toy Story 3, runner-up How To Train Your Dragon

    NYFCC

    Best Film – The Social Network
    Best Director – David Fincher
    Best Actor – Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress – Natalie Portman
    Best Supporting Actor – Christian Bale
    Best Supporting Actress – Hailee Steinfeld
    Best Screenplay – The Social Network
    Best Cinematography – Inception
    Best Animated Film – How To Train Your Dragon
    Best Documentary – Inside Job
    Best Foreign Film – Biutiful

  • 20 12-12-2010 at 10:51 am

    Alberto said...

    I think people are underestimating Mike Leigh’s Another Year, specially in NY. They gave him a Best Director Award (and a Best Actress for Sally Hawkins) two years ago for Happy-Go-Lucky, a less satisfying film than Another Year. I think he’ll be named best director and I hope Lesley Manville to prevail too.
    I go for Hailee Steinfeld for BSA in LA. They like young performers. After all, they were the first to honour Anna Paquin’s performance in The Piano.
    Here is my list of Predictions for both groups:
    http://imitationlife.wordpress.com/2010/12/12/2010-lafca-and-nyfcc-awards-predictions/