In Contention

Tag: Invictus

  • THE LONG SHOT: What becomes of the broken-hearted?

    (A day later than usual — apologies.)

    After the London Film Festival raised its curtain last night with a typically flashy European premiere for Mark Romanek’s “Never Let Me Go,” this morning’s papers and breakfast TV reports have been busy with chatter about what Britfilm’s two it-girls, Carey Mulligan and Keira Knightley, were wearing; how the next Spider-Man (that is, The Artist Formerly Known As Andrew Garfield) is settling into his red-carpet duties; and what the whole event promises about the beleaguered British film industry’s ability to, well, throw fancy parties.

    Something far fewer people have been talking about, however, is the film itself. That’s no great surprise: after securing eagerly awaited world premieres — “Frost/Nixon” and “Fantastic Mr. Fox” — for their last two opening nights, London fest organizers dropped the ball slightly by picking a film that bowed at Toronto last month and has already opened in the States. You can’t expect the same level of excitement for a gift that has already been opened by someone else, even if the ribbon has been retied.

    Still, the air surrounding “Never Let Me Go” was not merely one of used goods, but of damaged goods at that: yesterday morning’s press screening was characterized by a near-palpable cloud of lowered expectations, as tepid-to-respectable reviews and fizzling box-office from across the pond foretold a high-class shrug of a movie. “That’s going to get Oscar nominations?” a critic in the row behind me asked as the end credits rolled; his tone translated the question as, “Yeah, good luck with that.”

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  • THE LONG SHOT: When you wish upon a star

    “Mila Kunis is so winning Best Supporting Actress this year,” remarked an independent filmmaker to me over drinks today, referring, of course, to the 27 year-old’s sly breakout turn in Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan.” This was no idle fan statement. The man knew his Oscar onions – his theory was built upon established Academy affection for hot ingénues in sashaying support roles, as well as the current absence of any obvious frontrunners in the category.

    Still, even as he explained this, my eyebrows must have shot up somewhere past my hairline. As the writer who caught hell from many readers for daring not to predict Natalie Portman among my Best Actress nominees last month, the prospect of Kunis even getting nominated for subtly smoking work in an outré arthouse thriller hadn’t crossed my mind. I told him as much while emphasizing, as an admirer of the performance, how much I’d like to be wrong.

    “That’s what everyone says to me,” he replied. “‘Oh, she’s a revelation, I’d love to see her nominated, but she won’t be.’ Whenever I start hearing that kind of talk about a person or a film, that’s when I go to the bookies and put money on them. If everyone’s seeing the same thing in them, who’s to say the voters aren’t?”

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  • Oren Moverman, Kurt Cobain and the biopic

    One of my favorite current film writers, Ryan Gilbey, has an excellent piece in today’s Guardian on the subject of biopics — in particular, on the rise of the postmodern biopic in the face of Hollywood’s increasingly tepid stabs at the form. It’s a good read, but far better is the unabridged version of the article at Gilbey’s own blog, which contains some fascinating nuggets cut by the Guardian subs.

    Among them is this intriguing tidbit on an upcoming Kurt Cobain biopic from writer Oren Moverman. Moverman was, of course, a semi-surprise Oscar nominee earlier this year for his screenplay of “The Messenger,” but more pertinently to the subject at hand, he also co-wrote Todd Haynes’s oblique Bob Dylan study “I’m Not There.”

    Talking to Gilbey after the cut, Moverman explains that his next stab at the life of a rock icon won’t be quite as avant-garde as Haynes’s film (or Gus van Sant’s “Last Days,” for that matter), but he has no intention of ceding to the ‘greatest hits’ biopic structure so favored by Hollywood screenwriters.

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  • OSCAR GUIDE: Best Supporting Actor

    Matt Damon in InvictusIn a slight rarity, the year’s Best Supporting Actor category reflected the Screen Actors Guild nominees 100% this season. Nominations for Alfred Molina and Alec Baldwin at the BAFTA Awards weren’t enough to generate enough cross-over support, while Christian McKay’s late surge couldn’t get him there, either.

    What we’re left with is a sleepwalking performance in a dud movie, a spellbinding portrayal from a consistent performer in an indie awards success story, the first nomination for one of the screen’s legends, a tip of the hat to an actor who showed a wide range this season and a multi-lingual piece of work that began its awards run way back at Cannes.

    The nominees are:

    Matt Damon, “Invictus”
    Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
    Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
    Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
    Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

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  • OSCAR GUIDE: Best Actor

    Morgan Freeman in InvictusThe Best Actor category solidified pretty early on this year. I imagine the eventual line-up had slid into place as early as November, and after the Screen Actors Guild made things more official, the predictable race unfolded from there. What we have now is a typical mixture of seasoned veterans, solid industry players and newcomers to the awards season.

    But things weren’t always so clear. Before a last-minute decision to release what, from afar, always appeared to be a potential awards vehicle for a respected star, things could have gone a number of ways. Sometimes jumping in late can be a boost, and sometimes it just seems like the obvious play.

    The nominees are:

    Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
    George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
    Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
    Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
    Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

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  • The bright side

    Abbie Cornish in Bright StarWell, I’ll start the good news selfishly, by noting that I didn’t entirely embarrass myself with my predictions: not counting the short categories (which I was too cowardly and uninformed to predict) I nailed 78/106, just two points behind Kris’s round tally of 80.

    But while I was pleased to see at least one of my out-on-a-limb guesses come good — seriously, why didn’t more people call that Art Direction nod for “The Young Victoria?” — I was better at predicting what wouldn’t get nominated.

    So, my season-long hunches that Julianne Moore would be frozen out in the supporting race, that “(500) Days of Summer” would be blanked, that “Up in the Air” would miss that crucial Film Editing nod, and so on, were all on the money. And my increasing sense that nobody really liked “Invictus” enough to put it atop their ballot proved right too.

    Now, if I only I’d known what would land in their place. You can’t have it all, I suppose.

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  • Guy’s final predictions

    Anthony Mackie in The Hurt LockerRight, there comes a point every year in predicting the Oscar nominations when you realize you’re just shuffling names to dodge commitment. I’ve reached that point, so it’s time to put myself out my misery.

    Kris has already had his say — and stolen some of my best guesses from last week in the process. Okay, I kid because I love. It’s comforting, in fact, to have his very sensible company on calls like Diane Kruger for Best Supporting Actress, or “The Road” for Best Cinematography.

    That said, however, there are still numerous areas of the ballot still driving me crazy. I discussed my uncertainties in last week’s Long Shot column, but the last few days haven’t given me any more confidence when it comes to those pesky final two Best Picture slots.

    Though logic goes against me, I can’t shake the feeling that “Invictus” will miss — how many people are putting it at the top of their ballots? However, between the likes of “The Blind Side,” “The Hangover,” “Crazy Heart,” “Star Trek” and “The Messenger,” no one title emerges as a clear spoiler.

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  • Calling the longshots

    Sharlto Copley in District 9So this Steve Pond piece, titled “How Oscar Could Surprise — and Scare — Us,” is what we like to call hedging our bets.  It’s a chance to address some bubble matters so that we have something to point to and say, “Look, I toldja!”

    (Is that officially trademarked by Nikki Finke yet?)

    Anyway, I do like the guessing game fun, and Pond touches on a couple of things that I would likely mention if I were to do a similar piece.  One we can all understand is his #10, the potential snub of “Invictus” in the Best Picture category.  It has kind of been in the water for a few weeks now that the film just isn’t as strong as it could be, likely lacking passionate top tier votes.  It is, frankly, in the #10 spot on my list of final predictions.

    I do like Pond’s mention of Sharlto Copley as a potential Best Actor spoiler, but failing to even make the longlist with BAFTA (a group that wasn’t shy on the “District 9” love) makes the actor (who gave the year’s best lead actor performance in my book) the darkest of dark horses.

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  • THE LONG SHOT: The pre-nomination shuffle

    Alec Baldwin in It's ComplicatedThis, ladies and gentlemen, will be the last Long Shot column I write before the 2009 Academy Award nominations are announced, and it’s not just because it’s the column’s 17th week that the well of subject matter is looking rather dry.

    I have followed longer awards seasons than this one (the awards used to take place in late March, after all), but none have felt longer – thanks to this year’s eccentric, unprecedented scheduling that has most of the most significant precursor awards done and dusted before the Oscar nominations are even out.

    The six weeks between nomination morning and awards night were once chockfull of awards ceremonies that could move the needle this way or that. We now have only the BAFTAs and some guild announcements to break up the more stealthy campaigning that could yet affect the race.

    The result, then, is that Tuesday’s nominations seem like more of a formality than usual. By the end of the weekend, the Globes, the BFCA and the three most influential guilds will all have had their say, meaning almost every major race can be boiled down to a maximum of two contenders … before we even receive official confirmation that they’re in the race at all. If that’s the case, Lord only knows what we’ll find to talk about until March 7.

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  • WGA on the way

    (from left) Quinton Aaron and Sandra Bullock in The Blind SideWith the DGA, SAG and PGA out of the way, it’s on to the fourth and final of the major guild announcements: the Writers Guild of America, which announces Monday.

    The WGA has seemingly instituted a slash and burn campaign on a number of the year’s hopefuls this season.  Go here, here and here for the details.  Alright, “slash and burn” isn’t really accurate.  If WGA brass wants to play “in the club,” that’s their prerogative.  No sense getting worked up over it.  But suffice it to say, the field is fairly wide open now and, at the end of the day, no one should really bother putting too much prognosticative stock into what we get from the guild next week, seeing as the AMPAS writers branch is likely to go with a number of the fallen.

    Still — it’s fun to guess at the picks, no?

    From where I stand there are still 10 really decent bets, and maybe five or six more that wouldn’t surprise me if they made it through.  Best Picture contenders “The Hurt Locker,” “Precious” and “Up in the Air” are probably the easiest picks of the bunch, but what about the other seven?

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  • 1/1 Oscarweb Round-up

    Zoe Saldana in AvatarHappy New Year!

    • Jeffrey Wells wants a Best Actress nomination for “Avatar” star Zoe Saldana. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

    • David Poland calls for the same, amid a number of other history-making Oscar moments that could be in the cards this season. [Movie City News]

    • Steve Pond finds a nifty way of revealing his top 10 list: via official AMPAS ballot. [The Odds]

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  • Karger goes out on a limb for ‘The Messenger’

    Woody Harrelson in The MessengerIn the last week or two, the buzz for Rob Marshall’s “Nine” has, undeniably, plummeted.  It took a while for it to get to that point.  The first screening was held nearly a month and a half ago in New York, after all.  But enough goodwill and a certain lazy expectation that the below-the-line elements would pull the film across (guilty) kept it in the Best Picture mix.

    No longer.  The chips are finally hitting the table and the writing on the wall seems to indicate that the film will join “The Lovely Bones” as one of the biggest awards casualties of the season.  But which film will replace it in the line-up?  That has been the point of discussion (and will again for Anne and I in tomorrow’s Oscar Talk).  And Dave Karger has placed his bet on Oren Moverman’s wonderful war drama “The Messenger.”

    If this happens — and that’s a big “if” — then, in my view, it will be a validation of what a switch to 10 Best Picture nominees could (and should) be.  But films like “The Messenger” don’t exactly bring up ratings numbers, so I’m sure AMPAS brass would rather something like “Star Trek” or “District 9” capitalize on “Nine”‘s misfortune.  Still, this is an amazing little film that deserves this kind of serious acclaim and status.

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  • THE LONG SHOT: Four to the floor

    Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine“It might as well rain until September,” wrote Carole King in her jaunty 1960s ditty of that title, an ode to summertime breakup blues that may as well have been composed for the autumnally-activated awards season. Swap September for December, and you have an apt description of the approach many studios and Oscar-watchers alike take to the race — a short-memory mentality that I argued against in a column almost three months ago.

    Back then, I appealed to specialty and independent studios to release smaller titles earlier in the year, before the holiday-season crush of studio prestige titles – citing “The Hurt Locker,” amongst others, as a title that would likely benefit from the head start.

    With the year up and the full field revealed, I take the robust awards-season performance of the former film, as well as the surprising durability of “Inglourious Basterds,” as evidence that more offbeat contenders often benefit from a longer lead – not least when even hefty studio ponies are currently struggling to keep their heads above water, despite the visibility afforded by December release dates.

    Which leads us to the quartet of studio titles long labeled the “Big Four” by awards-watchers – the “Big” speaking not of the most enthusiastic anticipation so much as the longest delay. Months ahead of their respective press premieres (the earliest of which came in late November), “The Lovely Bones,” “Nine,” “Invictus” and “Avatar” crafted an aura of importance around themselves by sheer virtue of being the last seen, hogging four slots on many predicted Best Picture lineups on theory and expectation alone.

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  • “Dull, dull, dull”

    As is usually the case when British outlets offer Oscar analysis, there are few fresh insights to be found in Jeremy Kay’s assessment of the current race in today’s Guardian.

    Well, there is his unusual offhand assertion that “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and “Star Trek” are locked-in Best Picture nominees, with “Julie & Julia” and “The Blind Side” jostling for slot #10. (Well, it can’t eventually be the same 10 titles everyone else is predicting, can it? Can it?)

    He does, however, offer the kind of forthright, subjective opinions on the contenders that some Oscar prognosticators shy away from, as when he witheringly dismisses Gabourey Sidibe in favor of Abbie Cornish.

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  • ‘Air,’ ‘Basterds,’ ‘Precious’ lead the way with SAG

    Diane Kruger in Inglourious BasterdsThere wasn’t much in the way of a surprise with this year’s Screen Actors Guild announcement.  The nods that are least likely to translate to Oscar, if I were a betting man, are Diane Kruger’s supporting actress bid for “Inglourious Basterds” and (I guess I just have a feeling) Matt Damon, supporting for “Invictus.” The rest seem like safe bets on down the line.

    I wouldn’t read too much into the ensemble snub of “Up in the Air,” though it’s curious to nominate three actors from the film and then ignore it in that field.  The ensemble category is also where “Nine” got its expected attention, though Penelope Cruz also showed up in supporting for the film.  The BFCA, you’ll recall, went for Marion Cotillard instead.

    “Precious,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “Up in the Air” had the most nominations, with three apiece.  I would have expected “An Education” to have that designation, too, but somehow Alfred Molina was ignored.  Maybe that won’t be the case with Oscar, maybe it will.

    On to the next thing.  Check the full list of nominees after the jump.

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  • THE LONG SHOT: The next best thing

    Diane Kruger in Inglourious BasterdsAs the season hits its stride, and precursors turn murky perceptions of pack leaders and stragglers into harder realities, I find myself wondering how I would fill out my ballot if I were an Academy member.

    That’s not the same as wondering what I would fill my ballot with – as Kris just did today. Unlike many voters in the Academy and precursor ranks alike, who seemingly run out of ideas two slots in (“Hmm, did I see ten movies this year?”) and then reach for the names they’ve heard everyone else mention, I have no shortage of worthy suggestions for inclusion, whether people are talking about them or not.

    No, I’m referring to the how, the method, the strategy. Is it as simple as jotting down the films and individual achievements one admired most over the past 12 months? In a perfect world, yes. But do considerations of which of one’s favorites – and, indeed, least favorites – pose a threat in the race necessitate some compromise?

    Were I an Academy voter, in other words, would I give “35 Shots of Rum” one of my Best Picture slots, knowing full well it doesn’t having a snowball’s chance of a nomination? Or would I be a little craftier, and give the slot to “The Messenger” – a fine film that I love less, but that has slightly more hope of knocking something truly undeserving from the Oscar lineup?

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Freeman vs. frog

    The Princess and the Frog*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    We are only one week away from the day that movie-going is changed forever so why even bother seeing anything now? I can’t be hassled by anything in only TWO dimensions! I didn’t buy these designer 3D/sunglasses for nothing!

    Disney really emphasizes the 2D this weekend with the wide launch of “The Princess and the Frog,” the studio’s first non-computer animated title since “Home on the Range” in 2004. That modest film grossed $57.8 million, despite ingeniously casting Roseanne as a cow, but the damage had already been done by “Treasure Planet” two years before.

    Intended to be Disney’s huge Thanksgiving family film, that flick grossed a terrible $46.9 million and effectively closed down the production house. Ironically enough, it’s John Lasseter who is spearheading the renaissance and the grosses here will go a long way towards deciding the future of the medium.

    Two weeks of exclusive engagements in New York and Los Angeles have been a gold mine and “A Christmas Carol” and “Planet 51” will not be offering much competition. “The Blind Side” might be the only obstacle in the way of a really large opening but I think this should be the number one film easy and earn $32 million or so. I know I’ll be there.

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  • Back off, Hollywood

    Jennifer HudsonWhile South Africa’s currently high Hollywood profile is putting smiles on the faces (and much-needed cash in the pockets) of many figures in the country’s film industry, it appears that not all local actors are as pleased.

    The Guardian reports that a number of prominent local thesps have spoken out against the casting of bankable American stars in plum South African parts — most notably Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela in “Invictus,” and Jennifer Hudson as his ex-wife Winnie in a separate biopic:

    Oupa Lebogo, general secretary of the CWU [Creative Workers’ Union], said of Hudson’s casting, announced last month: “This decision must be reversed, it must be stopped now. If the matter doesn’t come up for discussion, we will push for a moratorium to be placed on the film being cast in South Africa. We are being undermined, there is no respect at all … We can’t allow this to happen. We have people who can play the role far better than Jennifer.”

    The award-winning actor John Kani said Freeman had asked him how he felt about an African-African playing the former president. He said he understood the economics but lamented the fact that “I wasn’t even asked”.

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