Guy’s final predictions

Posted by · 6:18 pm · February 1st, 2010

Anthony Mackie in The Hurt LockerRight, there comes a point every year in predicting the Oscar nominations when you realize you’re just shuffling names to dodge commitment. I’ve reached that point, so it’s time to put myself out my misery.

Kris has already had his say — and stolen some of my best guesses from last week in the process. Okay, I kid because I love. It’s comforting, in fact, to have his very sensible company on calls like Diane Kruger for Best Supporting Actress, or “The Road” for Best Cinematography.

That said, however, there are still numerous areas of the ballot still driving me crazy. I discussed my uncertainties in last week’s Long Shot column, but the last few days haven’t given me any more confidence when it comes to those pesky final two Best Picture slots.

Though logic goes against me, I can’t shake the feeling that “Invictus” will miss — how many people are putting it at the top of their ballots? However, between the likes of “The Blind Side,” “The Hangover,” “Crazy Heart,” “Star Trek” and “The Messenger,” no one title emerges as a clear spoiler.

I also feel very hazy still about my Best Supporting Actor predictions: I reluctantly caved on Christopher Plummer, though something still screams “snub” about his dozy performance to me. And Anthony Mackie is my wildest of wild card picks — but like Michael Shannon last year, there’s often a nominee that bucks the precursors, and Mackie could surf in on a wave of goodwill for “The Hurt Locker.”

Other niggles pepper the list. I’ve reverted to the consensus pick of Helen Mirren for the fifth Best Actress spot, though I’m not sure if I have reasonable grounds for thinking her vulnerable, or if it’s just because I think she isn’t terribly good in “The Last Station.” I’ve also plumped for dubious “Avatar” nods in the screenplay and song races, though an element of reverse psychology might be at play there.

Anyway, time to let go. Unlike Kris, I enjoy going out on the occasional limb. Being right is so much more fun when you’re in a minority, and being wrong … well, you should know by now, that I’m quite accustomed to the feeling. I’m not bothering with alternates: I don’t want to risk looking even further off-target than I need to. (And if they’re right, they still don’t count.)

My final predictions for the 2009 Academy Award nominations:

Best Picture
“Avatar”
“Crazy Heart”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
“Star Trek”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Best Director
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Neill Blomkamp, “District 9”
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin, “It’s Complicated”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Anthony Mackie, “The Hurt Locker”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Diane Kruger, “Inglourious Basterds”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Samantha Morton, “The Messenger”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“District 9”
“An Education”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air”

Best Original Screenplay
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”

Best Art Direction
“Avatar”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Public Enemies”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Cinematography
“Avatar”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Road”
“The White Ribbon”

Best Costume Design
“Bright Star”
“Coco Before Chanel”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Public Enemies”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Film Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”

Best Makeup
“District 9”
“Star Trek”
“The Young Victoria”

Best Music – Original Score
“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Informant!”
“Star Trek”
“Up”

Best Music – Original Song
“I See You” from “Avatar”
“Somebody Else” from “Crazy Heart”
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog”

Best Sound Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Star Trek”
“2012”

Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”

Best Animated Feature
“Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs”
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“Up”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Ajami” (Israel)
“A Prophet” (France)
“The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)
“The White Ribbon” (Germany)
“Winter in Wartime” (The Netherlands)

Best Documentary Feature
“The Beaches of Agnès”
“Burma VJ”
“The Cove”
“Food, Inc.”
“Mugabe and the White African”

ANTICIPATED TALLY:

11 – “Avatar”

10 – “Inglourious Basterds”

9 – “The Hurt Locker”

8 – “District 9”

7 – “Star Trek”

6 – “Up in the Air”

4 – “Crazy Heart,” “Precious,” “Up”

3 – “An Education,” “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “The Princess and the Frog,” “The Young Victoria”

2 – “The Last Station,” “The Messenger,” “Public Enemies,” “The White Ribbon”

1 – “2012,” “Ajami,” “The Beaches of Agnes,” “The Blind Side,” “Bright Star,” “Burma VJ,” “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs,” “Coco Before Chanel,” “Coraline,” “The Cove,” “Food, Inc.,” “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” “The Informant!,” “Invictus,” “It’s Complicated,” “Julie & Julia,” “Mugabe and the White African,” “A Prophet,” “The Road,” “The Secret in Their Eyes,” “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Winter in Wartime”




→ 27 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Daily

27 responses so far

  • 1 2-01-2010 at 6:22 pm

    Yogsam said...

    Best Director
    James Cameron, “Avatar”
    Neill Blomkamp, “District 9″
    Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
    Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
    Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
    i’m with you there, Guy!
    I can totally see Blomkamp taking the nom over Daniels

    Now, this is interesting:
    Best Music – Original Score
    “Avatar”
    “Fantastic Mr. Fox”
    “The Informant!”
    “Star Trek”
    “Up”
    don’t you think that a double nom for Giacchino can split the votes and go against him?
    Like in 1995 with James Horner’s double noms

  • 2 2-01-2010 at 6:24 pm

    Heath said...

    Nice. But I think UP is getting in on at least 1 of the sound categories

  • 3 2-01-2010 at 6:26 pm

    Nithen said...

    I surprised that Lee Daniel’s didn’t make the cut for Best Director, Guy (even though he’s a long shot against KB and JC). I think it would be quite a statement to have the first black and gay director to make the list (and we know how the Academy loves to make a statement).

  • 4 2-01-2010 at 6:27 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    For the record, of all my predictions, Kruger is the one I’m least confidant about. I have a feeling Gyllenhaal will slip in after all, but somewhere along the last week or two, I lost the bravery to stick with it. And I just didn’t have the heart to toss two SAG nominees out.

    C’est la vie.

  • 5 2-01-2010 at 6:28 pm

    Conor said...

    If three sci-fis get into Best Picture, Avatar has a smaller shot of winning. I like that.

  • 6 2-01-2010 at 6:31 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Also, I can’t shed the feeling that, if “Il Divo” was able to make it as far as the bake-off, surely it has the stuff to push on through as a “surprise” makeup nominee?

  • 7 2-01-2010 at 6:31 pm

    Nithen said...

    Sorry, spotted at least 2 errors in my first comment.

    Also, how did Alec Baldwin enter the Supporting Actor category? I thought he was a lead character in the film with Meryl; I didn’t see IC but from what I’ve heard and seen, his was a key role.

  • 8 2-01-2010 at 6:36 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Kris: I’ve been wondering the same thing. Sometimes they do like good old-fashioned aging work, after all. (And it’s VERY good.)

    Nithen: No, he’s supporting. It’s Streep’s story; he’s her foil.

  • 9 2-01-2010 at 6:49 pm

    Miguel Gallego said...

    Hi, I’m from Spain and i’m not sure if there will be any channel here broadcasting the nominations…, is there any website where I can watch them online??

  • 10 2-01-2010 at 6:57 pm

    Adam said...

    Glad to see you didn’t let Mr. Tapley talk you into including Maggie Gyllenhaal in your final predictions. It’s nice to see a little sanity around here. Oh wait, looking at the sidebar Mr. Tapley has talked himself out of predicting her. He was defending her a mere week ago as likely to surprise despite no precursors!

  • 11 2-01-2010 at 7:09 pm

    tintin said...

    Can Ronan make the cut?

  • 12 2-01-2010 at 7:10 pm

    Kevin said...

    You don’t think Sherlock Holmes could show up in the costume, art direction or original score categories? I hardly think it’ll be snubbed completely like you seem to be anticipating for Nine.

    My wildest predictions are Mackie for supporting actor, Julie & Julia for adapted screenplay, an Avatar snub in the original song category (song was terrible!) and Samson and Delilah showing up for foreign film (fingers crossed as an Aussie!) – glad to see you’re backing Mackie as well!

  • 13 2-01-2010 at 7:11 pm

    Me. said...

    Seeing how the SAG nominees for supporting actor exactly match the GG nominees… I’ll just copy paste and make it my predictions for that category! :)

    Also, best song was a bitch to predict. I went random in the end.

  • 14 2-01-2010 at 7:15 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    I don’t think predicting a snub for “I See You” is wild. The current voting system doesn’t favour it at all.

  • 15 2-01-2010 at 7:23 pm

    Kevin said...

    Does a song nomination for “You’ve Got me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger” strike you as a probable surprise or just false optimism?

  • 16 2-01-2010 at 7:35 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    I’m never surprised by anything in the Best Song category. And that song ticks a lot of the boxes.

  • 17 2-01-2010 at 7:35 pm

    The Dude said...

    I don’t see how people are predicting that Cameron will get a writing nomination for Avatar when he couldn’t get one for TITANIC of all films. That and with (500) Days of Summer being such a classic example of comedy that only gets a screenplay nod.

  • 18 2-01-2010 at 7:37 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    I keep thinking of “(500) Days of Summer” as the kind of lightweight indie like “Garden State” that gets WGA recognition but misses with the Academy. Could well be wrong about that.

  • 19 2-01-2010 at 8:21 pm

    Jessica said...

    I keep thinking that Anthony Mackie is going to be one of the surprises in the Supporting Actor category. His Sanborn is the yin to Renner’s yang. I can see the actors going for that over Plummer (snub) or even Baldwin. Comedy is always getting dissed by the Academy.

  • 20 2-01-2010 at 10:01 pm

    Joey said...

    Can someone tell me what time the nominations are going to be announced? I keep hearing different things. I’m in Pittsburgh…

  • 21 2-02-2010 at 12:39 am

    red_wine said...

    I so hope that Haneke can get atleast a screenplay or director nod. It would be a nod after no campaigning and that would be quite heartening. But the path for foreign language films is riddled with obstacles.

    In a year where so much second rate work and films are gonna be included in the filler slots, its a pity foreign language films have no shot. Maybe a A Prophet will get a best picture nomination next year.

  • 22 2-02-2010 at 3:20 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Red Wine: “A Prophet” would have to miss out on a Best Foreign Language Film nomination this year to be eligible for Oscar consideration in other categories next year. Yet another of their perplexing rules.

  • 23 2-02-2010 at 4:55 am

    Theoriginal.andrew said...

    The thing about 500 Days of Summer is that Fox Searchlight focused their campaign on the Original Screenplay possibility so I think it will get nominated.

  • 24 2-02-2010 at 4:55 am

    red_wine said...

    No but Guy it will be a US 2010 release and will likely get a qualifying run in LA. It still won’t be eligible for normal awards in 2010?

  • 25 2-02-2010 at 5:07 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    That is indeed the case. Like I said, perplexing.

  • 26 3-02-2010 at 12:19 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    As a result of a search trying to locate a different post, I just now saw Adam’s comment. Moron.