Calling the longshots

Posted by · 5:47 pm · February 1st, 2010

Sharlto Copley in District 9So this Steve Pond piece, titled “How Oscar Could Surprise — and Scare — Us,” is what we like to call hedging our bets.  It’s a chance to address some bubble matters so that we have something to point to and say, “Look, I toldja!”

(Is that officially trademarked by Nikki Finke yet?)

Anyway, I do like the guessing game fun, and Pond touches on a couple of things that I would likely mention if I were to do a similar piece.  One we can all understand is his #10, the potential snub of “Invictus” in the Best Picture category.  It has kind of been in the water for a few weeks now that the film just isn’t as strong as it could be, likely lacking passionate top tier votes.  It is, frankly, in the #10 spot on my list of final predictions.

I do like Pond’s mention of Sharlto Copley as a potential Best Actor spoiler, but failing to even make the longlist with BAFTA (a group that wasn’t shy on the “District 9” love) makes the actor (who gave the year’s best lead actor performance in my book) the darkest of dark horses.

You already know I’m thinking Lone Scherfig and the “In the Loop” writers are sleeper possibilities in the director and adapted screenplay categories.  Pond mentions them as well.  But I would love to see “Mary and Max,” one of the year’s best films, pop up in the animated feature category.  In my mind, if animators are paying any attention whatsoever, that would be a cakewalk win for the film.  Good on you for bringing that one back around one more time, Steve.

As far as nightmare scenarios, I think his #1 choice says it all: “‘The Weary Kind’ from ‘Crazy Heart’ not receiving a nomination for Best Original Song.”  I would weep, then I would break something.  Something expensive.  But in the way of wishful thinking, I’d like to mention how much I would love a true shocker like “Depression Era” slipping in.  Alas, we all know, it’s not going to happen.  But something from the fringe of that category’s list of 63 eligible contenders could, like, as Pond notes, “Dove of Peace” from “Bruno.”

If I were to add my own bet-hedging possibilities, it would be the following:

Quentin Tarantino is usurped in Best Original Screenplay category by “The Hangover” or, better yet, “(500) Days of Summer” misses instead (which would really make me sing).

British affinity for “An Education” makes it a dominant force, landing nominations for directing (mentioned above), costume design and lead actor (despite his campaign) Peter Sarsgaard.

“Nine” manages to stay afloat in the Best Supporting Actress category after all, but in Marion Cotillard’s favor rather than Penelope Cruz’s.

“The White Ribbon” is the surprise of the main categories, landing Best Director and Best Original Screenplay nominations for Michael Haneke.

Finally, guild favorite “Julie & Julia” manages to make good on its steady line of support and goodwill on the way to nominations for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing.

Any last minute surprise calls on your part?  My colleague Sasha Stone like to call them “no guts, no glory.”  Have at it in the comments section.

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47 responses so far

  • 1 2-01-2010 at 5:51 pm

    Scott Feinberg said...

    Could be:
    -“Nine” still gets in for best picture
    -No “An Education” for best picture
    -No Gabby Sidibe (“Precious”) for best actress

  • 2 2-01-2010 at 5:51 pm

    Amir said...

    the link to the steve pond piece leads me to a picture of an asian girl with gigantic boobies.

    how does that happen? haha

  • 3 2-01-2010 at 5:52 pm

    Mr. F said...

    Tilda Swinton for Julia.

  • 4 2-01-2010 at 5:52 pm

    Zach said...

    Err…that link leads to a picture of a busty Asian woman. Not that I’m complaining, but…huh?

  • 5 2-01-2010 at 5:53 pm

    Sir Andrew said...

    I’m sorry, is your link to Steve Pond’s article correct?

  • 6 2-01-2010 at 5:53 pm

    Pablo (Col) said...

    Here are my predictions:

  • 7 2-01-2010 at 5:55 pm

    N8 said...

    I can see ‘Julie & Julia’ showing up in Adapted Screenplay.

    I also wouldn’t be surprised if Christian McKay pops up in Supporting Actor.

    Finally, an annoying little voice in my head is constantly telling me that ‘Nine’s Best Picture hopes are not as dead in the water as many believe. That voice is WRONG of course, but it just keeps suggesting, “‘Nine’ for Best Picture!” I wish it would stop!

  • 8 2-01-2010 at 5:57 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Hahahahaha. Weird. That’s the danger of looking at “funny haha” emails from friends before putting up a post.

  • 9 2-01-2010 at 5:57 pm

    N8 said...

    Btw, Steve Pond never looked so good! ;P

  • 10 2-01-2010 at 5:58 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    FYI, the aforementioned “funny haha” link, so you don’t all think I’m a wacko perv:

  • 11 2-01-2010 at 6:06 pm

    Morgan said...

    Can’t wait till tomorrow is over so I can get these insane Sharlto Copley-longshot-nomination fantasies out of my mind. Just when I was over them, you (and Steve Pond) suck me back in. Damn you, Kris Tapley. Damn you.

  • 12 2-01-2010 at 6:14 pm

    Danny King said...

    – No Best Picture nomination for “Up”.

    – No Best Actor nod for Morgan Freeman (perhaps Viggo).

    – Cornish gets in over Mirren.

    – Stanley Tucci is snubbed for both “The Lovely Bones” and “Julie & Julia”.

  • 13 2-01-2010 at 6:14 pm

    mjb said...

    Maybe (500) Days of Summer for editing.
    Don’t think Up will be nominated in Best Pic.
    Joseph Gordon-Levitt in BA for (500) Days.
    Zachary Quinto in BSA for Star Trek.
    Marion Cotillard in BSA for Nine.
    Plummer and Mirren are snubbed.
    Melanie Laurent in BA (or BSA) for Inglourious Basterds.
    Paula Patton for BSA in Precious.
    Wish they had an ensemble award for The White Ribbon. Great acting all around. The children were brilliant.

  • 14 2-01-2010 at 6:18 pm

    William said...

    A Single Man getting in Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Costumes and Score…. and who knows Picture!
    Thanks to Mr. Harvey!

  • 15 2-01-2010 at 6:21 pm

    Nithen said...

    (Sorry for being off-topic, Kristopher) Can someone please help? I will be at work tomorrow … at 8:30 am EST, when I believe the nominees will be announced, am I right? So I was wondering if anyone knows how I might be able to catch a live audio or video stream of the announcement on the Internet. Appreciate the help. Thanks!

  • 16 2-01-2010 at 6:23 pm

    m1 said...

    Peter Sarsgaard over Alfred Molina
    Invictus over D9 (screenplay)
    5 favs all make original screenplay

  • 17 2-01-2010 at 6:26 pm

    Al said...

    500 Days of Summer getting in as Best Picture, along with Its Complicated. Personally I wouldn’t be fond of either, but its quite possible.

  • 18 2-01-2010 at 6:31 pm

    erwin said...

    I hope mary and max gets a nod.. it’s looking highly unlikely but it was just a really nice movie, period.

  • 19 2-01-2010 at 6:31 pm

    Rob said...

    Christian McKay for Me & Orson Welles.

  • 20 2-01-2010 at 6:34 pm

    Markku said...

    Benefiting from Bullock’s popularity, Quinton Aaron gets a Supporting Actor nomination.

    Colin Firth gets snubbed, resulting in scattered boos from the press corps in the room.

    Strong showing for The Last Station.

    Wishful thinking: Saoirse Ronan overcomes her film’s weakness to become the youngest two-time acting nominee.

  • 21 2-01-2010 at 6:35 pm

    Bryan said...

    Probably an error, but a blurb over at says Penelope Cruz got an Oscar nom for nine:

    “Penelope Cruz showed off her acrobatic skills in the film “Nine,” a role that garnered her an Oscar nomination in the best supporting actress category.”

  • 22 2-01-2010 at 6:37 pm

    Al said...

    Ditto to all the love Mary and Max has received, I’m really pulling for it.

  • 23 2-01-2010 at 6:51 pm

    Nigel Bridgeman said...

    Are the Animated Feature nominees determined by the same group that nominates the Animated Short? Because they gave an Oscar to Adam Elliot for “Harvie Krumpet” so there is obviously love for his work there.

    It’s just been a foregone conclusion for me to put “Mary and Max” down as one of the five nominees. It never occurred to me that he might miss out.

  • 24 2-01-2010 at 7:04 pm

    The InSneider said...

    The abcnews link is weird. It’s saying a bunch of things, including It’s Complicated for Best Picture. The Hangover nominated for something. Cruz, Damon, Tucci, Mirren, Firth, Kendrick are in. Farmiga for Best Actress not Supporting… what’s going on over there?

  • 25 2-01-2010 at 7:06 pm

    erwin said...

    is the abc the one broadcasting the oscars?

  • 26 2-01-2010 at 7:08 pm

    Markku said...

    They’re probably just preparing for tomorrow morning, having all these likely nominees listed in advance.

  • 27 2-01-2010 at 7:15 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Guys, those are obviously placeholder pages (note that they link to “page does not exist” entries). Standard practice to have stuff ready to publish in the event. Stupid that it’s available online in any capacity.

    No one but the PWC guys know the nominees right now, I believe.

  • 28 2-01-2010 at 7:20 pm

    The InSneider said...

    You’re right Kris, about the placeholders and what not, but those could be the nominees and those pages that don’t exist could just be pushed live in the morning. i mean, I sort of used to do the same thing at variety. and what about things like Farmiga for Best Actress? surely they wouldn’t have a placeholder for something as surprising as that, right?

  • 29 2-01-2010 at 7:21 pm

    The InSneider said...

    and if any website would know early, besides AMPAS’, wouldn’t it be ABC news?

  • 30 2-01-2010 at 7:21 pm

    Joe said...

    I don’t believe this myself, but I’m predicting “The Blind Side”, “The Hangover”, “Crazy Heart”, and “Nine” will all be nominated for BP. Also, no films set in South Africa will be nominated. Oh, and Sam Rockwell for Best Actor, Emily Blunt for Best Actress, Anthony Mackie for Best Supporting Actor, and Maggie Gyllenhaal for Best Supporting Actress.

  • 31 2-01-2010 at 7:30 pm

    The InSneider said...

    I agree, it makes little sense. Especially since it says Bullock, Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe and Farmiga were nommed for Best Actress, excluding Streep, which would be impossible, right? I’m probably getting myself worked up over nothing…

  • 32 2-01-2010 at 7:40 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Jeff: No. No one is giving a journalistic outlet the nominations early. And that certainly wouldn’t be written into a deal with a network solely tasked with airing the awards show.

  • 33 2-01-2010 at 7:59 pm

    Ben M. said...

    Avatar gets an acting nom
    Wes Anderson for best director
    This is It or The Cove scores an editing nom
    Depression Era actually does get a song nomination (the film has no chance at all in any other category, but since I believe voters actually have to see all the submitted songs there can be a shocker here)
    Complete shut outs for any of these films: Nine, Invictus, A Single Man, The Lovely Bones

  • 34 2-01-2010 at 8:17 pm

    Steve Pond said...

    Right now, only PwC knows. A small staff at AMPAS will learn at about 9 pm tonight. Nobody at ABC knows anything, and they won’t until tomorrow morning. Anything that’s up now is somebody’s guess.

    Nigel, animated short & animated feature are selected by different groups. Shorts voters are all from the short films & feature animation branch; feature is a bigger group from all branches.

    Apologies for not being an Asian girl with big boobs.

  • 35 2-01-2010 at 8:27 pm

    Frank Lee said...

    My prediction: Jason Reitman is not nominated for best director.

    Kris: Are you sure you want to be on record predicting that “Inglourious Basterds” might not receive a best original screenplay nomination?

  • 36 2-01-2010 at 8:35 pm

    Jessica said...

    How about The Cove sneaks in with a Best Pic nom signaling the increasing drawing power of documentaries…

  • 37 2-01-2010 at 8:40 pm

    Dana said...

    The Hangover and Nine get in for BP over A Serious Man and An Education.
    The Messenger gets nothing.
    2 Precious Supporting Actress nominations.
    Mackie gets in for Supporting Actor.
    I can also see Crazy Heart getting either way more or way less nominations than predicted.

  • 38 2-01-2010 at 8:42 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Frank: I wouldn’t have written it otherwise. Key word, though: might.

    Jessica: Now THAT’s possible.

  • 39 2-01-2010 at 9:10 pm

    Scott Feinberg said...

    How about a double nod for Matt Damon… “The Informant!” for best actor and “Invictus” for best supporting actor…

  • 40 2-01-2010 at 10:22 pm

    Leone said...

    STAR TREK nominated for best picture and JJ Abrams gets a best director nomination to go along with it!

  • 41 2-01-2010 at 10:27 pm

    Patryk said...

    Unless they decide to nominate Streep in supporting.

  • 42 2-01-2010 at 10:38 pm

    Damian said...

    No nomination for A SERIOUS MAN
    Marion Cotillard for Best Supporting Actress
    THE BLIND SIDE gets Best Picture nomination

  • 43 2-01-2010 at 10:43 pm

    Paul Outlaw said...

    Catalina Saavedra; Robin Wright; Viggo Mortensen; no dual Supporting nod for Up in the Air; Hal Holbrook; no Art Direction nod for Avatar; Where the Wild Things Are for Adapted Screenplay; Rupert Friend; Mariah Carey; Cheri for Costumes; Brian Geraghty…

  • 44 2-01-2010 at 10:59 pm

    Beau said...

    Where the Wild Things Are gets a Best Pic nomination.

    Betty White wakes up to a Best Supporting Actress nomination for The Proposal.

  • 45 2-01-2010 at 11:49 pm

    Adam Smith said...

    Just click on my name to go to my website, with my final predix. I also wrote a list with a similar conceit as Pond’s (except mine was a proper countdown)–it’s the article immediately after my final predix.

  • 46 2-02-2010 at 1:17 am

    Douglas said...

    I’m getting a funny feeling that “Up” might miss out on Best Picture nomination.
    Either “Crazy Heart” or “Star Trek” could slip into its place.
    It would be a massive shock if it did. It’s basically been one of the few constant Best Picture nominee predictions all year.

  • 47 2-02-2010 at 6:36 am

    Pablo (Col) said...

    “All I could do is cry. How nice, what good is all this, I’m in a state of shock still can not believe”

    Claudia Llosa’s reaction to her nomination for best foreign language film.