In Contention

Author: Guy Lodge

  • Ebert joins the predictions scramble

    Quinton Aaron and Sandra Bullock in The Blind SideWith less than 72 hours until Oscar nominations are announced, prediction lists are coming through thick and fast. Kris and I will have our final predictions up on Monday, while Gerard’s technical picks will be scattered throughout the weekend. (I’ll also enter dreamland for a while and offer up my fantasy ballot at some point.)

    Roger Ebert, meanwhile, is the latest big name to join the pile. As we’ve come to expect from the critic, his predictions are a blend of the rationally reasoned and the borderline insane. (Werner Herzog’s “The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans” has an outside shot at a Best Picture nomination, apparently. Right.)

    Most interesting to me, however, is his conviction in “The Blind Side,” which he labels a can’t-miss Best Picture nominee. (He also calls Sandra Bullock a “sure thing” to win Best Actress.)

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  • WEEKLY WRAP: Guild awards, pre-nomination jitters

    A scene from Inglourious Basterds• In the biggest upset of the season so far, “The Hurt Locker” came up trumps at the PGA Awards.

    • “Inglourious Basterds” took the top prize at the SAG Awards, which also gave another boost to Sandra Bullock.

    • With Oscar nominations out next week, we listed some of the greatest nominee fields in Oscar history.

    • Off the Carpet took stock following the weekend’s precursors, and Kris revised his winner predictions.

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  • UK critics honor ‘Up,’ Mulligan

    Carey Mulligan in An EducationThe London Film Critics’ Circle Awards may be the most prestigious of British critics’ honors (not saying much, admittedly), but there are critics in the rest of the country too. These regional writers have their say in the Richard Attenborough Awards, which held their fourth annual ceremony last night.

    Last year, the Attenboroughs stuck very much with the consensus, but they made some bolder calls this time, handing their film of the year honors to “Up,” while “Moon” star Sam Rockwell took Best Actor honors. (Well, it’s nice that he has something to show for his career-best performance.)

    Carey Mulligan was a double winner, earning both Best Actress and Rising Star awards, while a handful of public-voted awards proved that Brits still like Harry Potter — but also that some of them saw “Moon.”

    Not exactly the most significant awards of the season, but fun nonetheless. List of winners (via Screen Daily) after the cut.

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  • Pride before a fall

    Forest Whitaker and Sid Ganis announcing the 2008 Academy Award nominationsRichard Roeper prefaces his Oscar predictions with the following suggestion to spice up the nominations announcement:

    They race through the lists at 5:30 a.m. PST, in order to get live coverage on the morning talk shows. That’s just stupid.

    As I’ve suggested before, the Academy should turn the nomination announcements into a one-hour special, to air on E! or some other cable channel. Build up excitement by showing clips and interviewing possible nominees. Have some cameras on set or in the homes of some contenders, to catch their reactions. If they can do it with the Heisman Trophy every year, why not the Oscars?

    The Grammy Awards have gone in a similar direction with their nominations special, though the Oscars obviously wouldn’t have musical numbers to pad things out. I’m all for making a bit more of an occasion out of the announcement, though the idea of catching some nominees’ (or, worse, non-nominees’) reactions live is super-tacky. After the cut, Steven Spielberg will show you why.

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  • J.D. Salinger (1919-2010)

    The Catcher in the Rye by J.D. SalingerHow eerily sad that exactly one year ago, I wrote a short piece mourning the passing of John Updike, one of my literary heroes and chief inspirations to become a writer. Today, the news has arrived that J.D. Salinger, the man joining Updike at the top of my personal pantheon, has followed him to the smoky writer’s study in the sky.

    January 27 is clearly not a lucky day for American literature.

    I first read “The Catcher in the Rye” when I was 10 years old. As banal as it is to say, and as innumerable as the people are who have said the same thing before me, it’s a book that changed my life. I suspect Holden Caulfield has served as a guide for many a curious child into the daring delights of “grown-up books,” but it wasn’t just the character or the story that held me in thrall — it was the flip, jazzy elegance of the writing itself.

    As a kid whose twin passions were reading and watching movies, Salinger taught me that a book could read like a movie, that prose could bend and bounce like verbal dialogue.

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  • THE LONG SHOT: The pre-nomination shuffle

    Alec Baldwin in It's ComplicatedThis, ladies and gentlemen, will be the last Long Shot column I write before the 2009 Academy Award nominations are announced, and it’s not just because it’s the column’s 17th week that the well of subject matter is looking rather dry.

    I have followed longer awards seasons than this one (the awards used to take place in late March, after all), but none have felt longer – thanks to this year’s eccentric, unprecedented scheduling that has most of the most significant precursor awards done and dusted before the Oscar nominations are even out.

    The six weeks between nomination morning and awards night were once chockfull of awards ceremonies that could move the needle this way or that. We now have only the BAFTAs and some guild announcements to break up the more stealthy campaigning that could yet affect the race.

    The result, then, is that Tuesday’s nominations seem like more of a formality than usual. By the end of the weekend, the Globes, the BFCA and the three most influential guilds will all have had their say, meaning almost every major race can be boiled down to a maximum of two contenders … before we even receive official confirmation that they’re in the race at all. If that’s the case, Lord only knows what we’ll find to talk about until March 7.

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  • Mark Harris on Zoe Saldana and performance capture

    Zoe Saldana in AvatarPerhaps I missed it, but I’m surprised there hasn’t been more online conversation about EW writer Mark Harris’s recent critical essay on “Avatar” and performance capture technology.As one would expect from the author of “Pictures at a Revolution,” it’s a thoughtful piece, but one that should stir up considerable dissent.

    He begins by slamming James Cameron for suggesting that performance capture can be used to preserve an actor’s physical features: “Will Smith could still make an action movie when he’s 75 years old, looking like he looks now,” Cameron stated, a thought that makes me as uneasy as it does Harris.

    But the beef of Harris’s argument comes when he turns his attention to “Avatar,” and the widely praised performance of Zoe Saldana, who some (including my esteemed editor) think merits Oscar consideration.

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  • Is there a ‘Precious’ in this year’s Sundance lineup?

    (from left) Chyna Layne, Amina Robinson and Gabourey Sidibe in PreciousWhen (at this stage, I think it’s safe to say “when”) “Precious” and “An Education” land Best Picture nods on Tuesday morning, there will be an interesting trivia note to attach to the occasion: they’ll be the first Sundance competition entries since 2001 to make it all the way to Oscar’s top race.

    Indeed, “Precious” will be the first Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner ever to score a Best Picture Oscar nod in the festival’s 25-year history.

    These are two interesting stats that aren’t mentioned in AP writer David Germain’s story on the relationship between Sundance and Oscar, which casts a more positive gaze on the number of overlaps between the two. And he’s right to an extent: the past decade alone has given Oscar-watchers plenty of reason to keep a close eye on Sundance.

    In the eight years since “In the Bedroom” became the last Sundance contender to crack the Best Picture lineup,  Sundance has presented a number of future Oscar contenders in acting and writing categories, including “Maria Full of Grace,” “Hustle and Flow,” “Junebug,” “The Squid and the Whale,” “Half Nelson” and, most recently, “Frozen River.”

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  • THE LISTS: Top 10 Oscar nominee fields

    Ralph Fiennes in Schindler's ListIn exactly one week’s time, we’ll have a brand new list of Oscar nominations to pore over, pick apart and eventually file away in our subconscious with the other 81 editions of this annual collective. For Oscar geeks, nomination day is in many ways more exciting than the ceremony itself, celebrating a broader spectrum of work and throwing up far more surprises along the way.

    For all that, once the winners are announced, the nomination list as a whole tends to be disregarded, returned to only by trivia buffs and the geekiest of Oscar geeks. (Guilty on both counts.) And that’s shame, because a field of five nominees can often be more illuminating viewed collectively than even the worthiest of individual champions.

    Today’s list, then, is devoted to that most elusive of Oscar holy grails: the perfect nominee field.

    Yes, more often than not, the Academy will nominate several notable achievements in a single category. But rarer than hen’s teeth are the robust Oscar categories that feature a full house of five outstanding nominees, five contenders that would all be worthy of a win in any other year. No unremarkable coaster nominees sliding in on the coattails of a popular picture. No bad films with an expensively studio-bought  nominations. No filler. No fat. Just five superb achievements.

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  • Anne Hathaway to perform Oscar nomination honors

    Anne HathawayNo reason to stop the presses or anything, but good to know. If I had to get up at the crack of dawn to watch the nominations announcement (luckily, I don’t), Anne Hathaway’s face is as pleasant a sight to wake up to as I can imagine. (No offence, Forest Whitaker.) Thanks to commenter Ziyad for the tip:

    Nominations for the 82nd Academy Awards® will be announced on Tuesday, February 2, by Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences President Tom Sherak and Oscar-nominated actress and Academy member Anne Hathaway. Sherak and Hathaway will unveil the nominations in 10 of the 24 categories at a 5:30 a.m. news conference at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills, where hundreds of media representatives from around the world will be gathered.

  • Tim Burton named Cannes jury president

    Tim BurtonIn a move that should remind some of his more disenchanted fans of the high esteem with which he is still held in the industry, Hollywood’s resident kook-auteur Tim Burton has been tapped to head the jury of this year’s Cannes Film Festival. He said in a statement:

    After spending my early life watching triple features and 48-hour horror movie marathons, I’m finally ready for this … It’s a great honor and I look forward, with my fellow jurors, to watching some great films from around the world. When you think of Cannes you think of world cinema. And as films have always been like dreams to me, this is a dream come true.

    The selection makes him the first full-time American filmmaker to preside over Europe’s most sanctified cinematic institution since Quentin Tarantino in 2004. (Actor-director Sean Penn took the gig two years ago). A more mainstream pick than usual, he’s nonetheless one of the industry’s most identifiable directorial brands, and therefore an obvious candidate for the position.

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  • SAG wins for ‘Basterds,’ Bullock, Bridges

    Sandra Bullock at the 16th annual Screen Actors Guild AwardsGotta love all those B’s, right? Overall, no real surprises — we knew Best Actress was going to be a close-fought contest between Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock, and it’s entirely likely that Streep’s win last year tipped it towards Hollywood’s new golden girl.

    While the widely anticipated ensemble win for “Inglourious Basterds” makes no real difference to the Best Picture race, I think it’s safe to say three of the acting Oscars can practically be engraved already.

    This was George Clooney’s last opportunity to stake his claim in the Best Actor race, but the perfect-storm combination of Jeff Bridges’s shaggy likeability, overdue status and (lest we forget) a damn fine performance in “Crazy Heart” was too much to overcome.

    Best Actress, as I said earlier today, will remain a mystery right up until the envelope is opened on March 7. The season’s one remaining acting precursor, the BAFTA, won’t reveal anything, given Bullock’s ineligibility there.

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  • Last-minute SAG predictions

    Christoph Waltz in Inglourious BasterdsFunny, I could have sworn the SAG Awards were taking place on Sunday. Goes to show how on top of things I am, I guess. Or, perhaps, the level of excitement I feel over at least three cut-and-dried acting races this year.

    Nevertheless, tonight’s ceremony will be helpful in addressing at least one of this season’s larger question marks: does Sandra Bullock really have a shot at the Best Actress Oscar? If, as I suspect will happen, Meryl Streep takes home her second consecutive statuette tonight, this race is all over bar the shouting. If Bullock (or even Gabourey Sidibe) snatches it, we really won’t have a clue until the envelope is opened on March 7.

    Unlike Kris, I think four decades of sterling, unrewarded work in Hollywood will send the SAG Award Jeff Bridges’s way, even if “Crazy Heart” hasn’t been as widely seen as “Up in the Air.” Bridges is the kind of consummate actors’ actor these awards were invented for. As for the supporting categories, well … is any discussion necessary?

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  • That face

    I have nothing to add to the reams of commentary on the sad passing of Jean Simmons, only to say that she has, eerily, been on my mind recently. A few months ago, I saw her rather touching final performance in “Shadows in the Sun,” a small British film written by a friend and former teacher of mine, and was struck by how elegantly that china-doll face had aged.

    And only last month, I rewatched Joseph L. Mankiewicz’s undervalued “Guys and Dolls” after unearthing it in a bargain bin, and delighted in the knowing silliness of her Golden Globe-winning turn — as fine an Ophelia as she made opposite Olivier’s Hamlet, there’s an argument to be made for the “dolce de leche” sequence (embedded after the cut) as her best screen work. For sheer iconic value, however, what can top her appearance, aged just 17,  in Powell and Pressburger’s peerlessly beautiful “Black Narcissus?”

    Jean Simmons in Black Narcissus

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  • ‘A Prophet’ tops César nominations

    Kristin Scott Thomas in LeavingWhat a shocker, right? In the nominations for France’s premier film awards, Jacques Audiard’s Oscar contender leads the field with a massive 13 bids. (Look out for my interview with Audiard, coming soon.)

    It’s nice to finally see some love for Niels Arestrup’s astonishing work in the film, but when a contemporary prison drama can nail down a nomination for Best Costume Design, a sweep is afoot.

    That said, the Césars don’t always go to plan: last year saw heavyweights like “The Class” and “I’ve Loved You So Long” upset by “Séraphine,” the film that went on to take Best Actress awards from two of America’s most prestigious critics’ circles. It’s always worth keeping an eye on titles that do well here.

    I’m surprised that Alain Resnais’s “Wild Grass” didn’t do better here: the New Wave veteran’s critically beloved new effort scored a Best Film nomination, but little else, with Resnais himself snubbed in the Best Director race.

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  • WEEKLY WRAP: Globe awards, BAFTA noms, foreign shortlist

    Ed Helms in The Hangover• “Avatar” and “The Hangover” took top honors at a very populist Golden Globes ceremony — Off the Carpet reported from the party circuit.

    • The Academy revealed the nine films shortlisted for Best Foreign Language Film; we sized up the race.

    • BAFTA announced their nominations, with “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar” topping the list.

    • The Long Shot, meanwhile, pondered the identity crisis of this particular awards institution.

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  • INTERVIEW: Anthony Mackie

    Anthony MackieSome performances are so selflessly and expertly integrated into a film’s ensemble that awards voters tend to take them for granted, looking instead to more assertive scene-stealers from sometimes starrier names.

    Nobody better demonstrates that this season than Anthony Mackie, rising star of stage and screen and the secret weapon of awards heavyweight “The Hurt Locker.”

    While Jeremy Renner has deservingly caught the eye of multiple precursor bodies, many of them have curiously failed to notice that much of Renner’s performance exists in a tensely riveting pas de deux with Mackie, whose sternly pragmatic Sgt. Sanborn is not only the yin to the impetuous yang of Renner’s SSgt. James, but a striking study in its own right of internalized male insecurity.

    Together with Brian Geraghty, as a weaker soldier dependent on Sanborn’s stabilizing influence, the three actors, alongside a smart selection of cameo players, perform some of the year’s most delicately attuned ensemble playing. And even if Mackie hasn’t received quite the level of individual attention he deserves, he accepts praise for the film (and a well-earned SAG ensemble nomination) as evidence of a job well done.

    “Look, when you work on a film like this, any idea of ego goes out the window,” the 30 year-old New Orleans native tells me over the phone from New York. “This is a story about brotherhood, so it’s dependent on the synergy of a great ensemble. As actors, we were just concerned with taking care of each other, making sure we had each other’s back. It’s not about being pretty, you know?”

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  • Official video for Ryan Bingham’s ‘The Weary Kind’

    Because, well, I’m glad of any excuse to bring up this track. Is there even a contest for Best Original Song? Even the Academy’s wilful music branch can’t screw this up. Surely.