Last-minute SAG predictions

Posted by · 3:08 pm · January 23rd, 2010

Christoph Waltz in Inglourious BasterdsFunny, I could have sworn the SAG Awards were taking place on Sunday. Goes to show how on top of things I am, I guess. Or, perhaps, the level of excitement I feel over at least three cut-and-dried acting races this year.

Nevertheless, tonight’s ceremony will be helpful in addressing at least one of this season’s larger question marks: does Sandra Bullock really have a shot at the Best Actress Oscar? If, as I suspect will happen, Meryl Streep takes home her second consecutive statuette tonight, this race is all over bar the shouting. If Bullock (or even Gabourey Sidibe) snatches it, we really won’t have a clue until the envelope is opened on March 7.

Unlike Kris, I think four decades of sterling, unrewarded work in Hollywood will send the SAG Award Jeff Bridges’s way, even if “Crazy Heart” hasn’t been as widely seen as “Up in the Air.” Bridges is the kind of consummate actors’ actor these awards were invented for. As for the supporting categories, well … is any discussion necessary?

One race, however, really could go any way. The smart money for Best Ensemble appears to be on the large, evenly weighted gang of “Inglourious Basterds,” but I do find myself wondering if the collective might be a littleĀ  European for SAG tastes. “The Hurt Locker,” on the other hand, stands to benefit if voters simply opt for the strongest Best Picture player in the mix — as they did with “Slumdog Millionaire” last year.

If they’re not bothered by the amount of novice actors in the cast, “Precious” could well be the sentimental choice, while there are even some whispers that “Nine” could pull off an epic upset here. (No, I don’t buy it either.) Only a win for “The Hurt Locker,” I think, stands to influence the Oscar race at all.

Kris offered his predictions here. Spurred on by my spectacular showing at last week’s Golden Globes, I added mine (along with TV categories) to the many compiled by Tom O’Neil — in case you missed them, here they are, along with my personal picks.

Best Ensemble
Will win: “Inglourious Basterds”
Should win: “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actor
Will win: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Should win: Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress
Will win: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Should win: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”

Best Supporting Actor
Will and should win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Best Stunt Ensemble
Will win: “Star Trek”

What are your guesses and/or hopes for tonight? Share them in the comments.

→ 15 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Daily

15 responses so far

  • 1 1-23-2010 at 3:18 pm

    Pablo (Col) said...

    Should win Jeremy Renner ? I would go for George Clooney for that spot. He has yet to win a SAG for a film and he has showed his fellow actors that he knows how to pull of great characters.

    Should win in Best Actress, for me, it should be Gabby Sidibe. Although the future may show how much a star she has the potential to be.

  • 2 1-23-2010 at 3:26 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Whether or not an actor has already won doesn’t factor into my “should win” picks. It’s about performance only.

  • 3 1-23-2010 at 3:27 pm

    Adam Smith said...

    Now I know what it must have felt like to be a Slumdog fan last year. As a prognosticator, the Christoph Waltz steamroller is boring as all hell, but I’ll be a monkey’s bare-assed uncle if he hasn’t deserved every win he’s racked up this season. Always good to see that stellar work does not go unrewarded.

  • 4 1-23-2010 at 3:53 pm

    aspect ratio said...

    It’d be so awesome if they threw us some curveballs tonight. Can’t even reasonably happen in the supporting categories, but how awesome wouldn’t it be if for example Renner and Mulligan took the top honors tonight, just to add a bit of spice and uncertainty to the race? At this point I don’t care who wins, all I want is something to throw us off so Oscar night won’t be as predictable.

  • 5 1-23-2010 at 3:55 pm

    Theoriginal.andrew said...

    I saw An Education twice and I don’t get the love. I thought it was such a forgettable film. No love for Mulligan from me I’m afraid.

    I’m expecting Streep to win. If sheloses, I hope Sibide takes it. The other three nominees are… meh.

  • 6 1-23-2010 at 4:01 pm

    Simon Warrasch said...

    Will win: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart ????????
    Should win: Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker???

    And Colin Firth??? Where is he???? He gave the best performance!!!! So you put him after jeff and jeremy!!! What a joke!

  • 7 1-23-2010 at 4:03 pm

    Jim T said...

    I am afraid Bullock will win this too. Swinton dooesn’t even get a nomination and Bullock wins (if she does). What a beautiful world…

    I guess I want Mulligan to win. But I wouldn’t be thrilled. None of the nominated performances thrilled me.

  • 8 1-23-2010 at 4:03 pm

    Simon Warrasch said...

    Best Actor: Colin Firth in A Single Man
    Best Actress: Gabby Sidibe in Precious
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique in Precious
    Best Acting Ensemble: Inglourious Basterds

  • 9 1-23-2010 at 4:04 pm

    Jim T said...

    I remember another (BFCA probably) will-should by Guy whicj showed that he prefers Firth to Bridges.

  • 10 1-23-2010 at 4:16 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    I’ll never understand why, when you state a preference for one performance, people immediately take that as a damning slight on another.

    I love Firth’s performance. I love Renner’s just a little bit more. There’s room in my heart for both, believe it or not.

  • 11 1-23-2010 at 4:24 pm

    Erik 815 said...

    Here’s something I’ve been wondering: Many people are predicting Jeff Bridges will win everything up to and including the oscar in recognition of not only his performance, but also his career achievement.

    As if his career is over…

    They could just as well have rewarded him a few years back for the Contender with that argument. They could’ve at least nominated him for Seabiscuit. Most of all, I don’t think he’s anywhere near the end of his career and his oscar chances. I’d even say he could end up a frontrunner next year with the Coens’ readaptation of “True Grit”.

    Peter O’Toole for “Venus”, now there’s a guy who has far less chance of returning after his eighth nomination, way past the retirement age, with great reviews, and even he didn’t win it. I think Bridges is the frontrunner unless Up in the Air suddenly surges (Or it could be this year’s Milk, a big oscar-y film that ends up with actor and screenplay, with the more Hollywood-y actor in the bigger film winning over the guy with more precursors and a smaller, more intimate film), but he doesn’t have the oscar in the bag just yet.

  • 12 1-23-2010 at 4:39 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Erik: It’s not just the career-achievement angle. It’s the fact that it’s a very baity (and very good) performance. Kind of a perfect Oscar storm, if you will.

  • 13 1-23-2010 at 4:44 pm

    Ben said...

    I know this sounds crazy but the guilds are much more mainstream than the oscars, they don’t have the advantage of screenings, and also their work sometimes gets in the way of seeing major contenders so no Mulligan or Renner.

    Actor:George C looney
    Actress:Gabby Sidibe
    Supporting Actor:Christoph Waltz


  • 14 1-23-2010 at 4:46 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Doesn’t sound crazy at all, Ben.

  • 15 1-23-2010 at 6:15 pm

    Erik 815 said...

    @ Guy: I know, I know, but the career achievement angle is helping a lot. That’s why I think he still has an edge over Clooney in a way I never thought Rourke had the edge over Penn.

    “Crazy Heart” jumped into the race very late when the distrib saw an opening and thought a campaign could be mounted for Bridges based on voter sentiment, and it has worked out. His name, acting creds, and lack of awards recognition have pushed the film this far. Now the question is: will enough people (i.e. voting members) see it? Not taking into account those who vote sight unseen.

    I think if Clooney didn’t have the oscar for Syriana the race could be very different at this point.