In Contention

Tag: Box Office

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Cop’ and a laugh

    (from left) Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis in Cop Out*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s the last full weekend before the Oscars. Have you seen all the nominees yet? I sure haven’t. In fact, there isn’t a single category where I’ve seen every film and can have an educated opinion. That’s not likely to change before the big day since I’ve been happy to put the 2009 movie-going year to bed for a while.

    There’s plenty of new joy to be found! Like “Cop Out,” the first big budget studio outing from Kevin Smith. Primarily known as the guy behind a bunch of movies your college roommate likes, he is notably absent from all press materials for the Bruce Willis/Tracy Morgan buddy flick.

    Willis typically can’t open straight-forward action films to very much, unless they have the words “Die” and “Hard” in them. Recent run-of-the-mill efforts include “Surrogates” ($15.2 million), “16 Blocks” ($13.8 million) and “Hostage” ($12.1 million).

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Leonardo leads (Donatello does machines)

    Shutter Island*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s fourth collaboration together has provided the former with his biggest debut ever and the latter’s second only to “Titanic.” $40.2 million is the estimate, which puts it a fraction behind “Madea Goes to Jail” from this same weekend last year and means that unless word of mouth is particularly poisonous, it should squeak past the $100 million mark. To do so, it’ll have to perform more like an esteemed thriller than a typical horror film as “Friday the 13th” could only translate a $41.4 million February opening into a $68.9 million total last year.

    Second place goes to “Valentine’s Day,” which suffered a morale-damaging 69% dip from last weekend. The drop was never going to be kind due to the holiday last Monday but only “New Moon” and Ang Lee’s “Hulk” have dropped harder while playing on more than 3,500 screens. I guess audiences decided not to go back and watch it again for all the hidden nuances in the way Jamie Foxx says “Damn!” to something off-screen.

    “The Wolfman” also fell 69% to $9.8 million and fifth place, although that was a bit more expected. It will now be lucky to gross $71 million, which is what it would need to surpass “Teen Wolf.” Maybe if Anthony Hopkins’s character was a bit more like Rupert “Stiles” Stilinksi, Universal could be a little closer to recouping that $150 million budget. Maybe throw in Del Toro doing a handstand on a horse and carriage ride? Just thinking out loud.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Shutter’ to sink?

    (from left) Ben Kingsley and Leonardo DiCaprio in Shutter Island*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s been a long time coming but “Shutter Island” finally hits screens this weekend, with no competition in sight. That’s right, Scorsese gets the weekend all to himself and his genre exercise, which is opening on just under 3,000 screens. The man is viewed as something of a deity, particularly on sites like this, and his fanbase clearly spans over more than one generation. At age 60, his career took a turn towards the populist and there seems to be no looking back. “Shutter Island” should be able to straddle the line between snobs and laymen, men and women and teens and adults. Sounds like a winning combination.

    “The Departed” opened to $31 million in 2006 and is Scorsese’s highest grossing film, along with the reason he has an Oscar on his mantle. Picking up a lifetime achievement gong at the Golden Globes last month is just another reason why his profile has never been higher across the country. His last attempt at this type of film was 1991’s “Cape Fear,” which opened with $18.5 million en route to a $143.6 million finish, and that’s certainly not out of reach here, although I’d say it’s unlikely. I’ll say $33 million for the weekend and then it’ll need strong word of mouth to hit $100 million.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Love glory

    Valentine's Day*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The overwhelming demand to see an eclectic array of celebrities fall in love with as little character development as possible has led to “Valentine’s Day” both winning the weekend and posting the biggest President’s Day debut of all time, narrowly eclipsing “Ghost Rider.” $52.4 million is the gross, which should balloon to around $60 million including tomorrow, and you have your first $100 million earner of 2010 on the way. The timing couldn’t have worked out better, with Warner Bros. estimating today’s gross to be bigger than Friday or Saturday.

    It was a fierce battle for second place between “Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief” and “The Wolfman.” The former took the edge with $31.1 million, while the hairier option earned $30.6 million. That’s a win for Chris Columbus, who was in desperate need of one after “I Love You Beth Cooper” and “Rent,” and the fantasy flick should have enough juice to flirt with the $100 million barrier.

    “The Wolfman,” however, will likely have to settle for around $75 million and some solid overseas grosses. For a project as troubled as this was, Universal can’t complain. Believe it or not, that will make it the third biggest film Del Toro has ever been a part of after “Traffic” and “Sin City.”

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Valentine’s Day’ love fest

    Benicio Del Toro in The Wolfman*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Sorry this is late folks. I can remember all the words to “Teenage Dirtbag” by Wheatus without hearing it for five years but I can’t seem to remember to write this column every week.

    Anyway, it’s a big weekend. President’s Day means it’s a four-day tally and Sunday being Valentine’s Day means certain titles have a leg up. One such title is “Valentine’s Day,” starring at least one person you, your sister, your mother and your grandmother really like. The 75-year-old man who directed “Pretty Woman” is putting it all together and there’s really no stopping it.

    “50 First Dates” managed $55 million from the four-day weekend in 2004 and I’d say only the overachieving debut of “Dear John” will keep this lower. Give it $50 million for four days and $43 million for the three days.

    “The Wolfman” once seemed like a hot commodity. Mark Romanek was an inspired directing choice and Benicio Del Toro’s casting saved the production millions in makeup costs. But Romanek got replaced with Joe Johnston, the release date got delayed a couple times and the whole thing now looks like a giant turd. Still, enough people may be interested in some cheap thrills to get it to $27 million for the three days and $33 million for the long weekend.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Dear James, Suck it! Signed, ‘Dear John’

    Dear John*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    After spending only seven weeks at the top of the box office, “Avatar” was humiliatingly defeated by “Dear John” and doomed to obscurity forever by dropping to second place.

    The new weekend victor earned a phenomenal $32.4 million to end James Cameron’s epic reign and finally give 2010 something new to talk about. The result is better than the $28.3 million start of “He’s Just Not That Into You” on this same weekend last year and boosts the star power of Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried.

    Seyfried has had an interesting career filled with hits (“Mamma Mia!”) and misses (“Jennifer’s Body”), but avoiding the glory or the blame that comes with both. This victory clearly belongs to her, though, and who would have thought watching “Mean Girls” that in five years, she would have a career and Lohan would not?

    “Avatar” dipped 25% to $23.6 million in its first post-Oscar nominations weekend. The running total is now $630.1 million and $700 million should be a piece of cake, particularly if a Best Picture win comes in early March. If so, Cameron would have the only two films to hit that mark in the last 26 years, but he shouldn’t get too comfortable with that stat since I just heard Taylor Lautner is going to be in the “Stretch Armstrong” movie.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: 72 degrees and ‘Avatar’

    John Travolta in From Paris with Love*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    “Avatar” has swept aside the entire January schedule with relative ease and is aiming for an eighth weekend at the top of the box office. Considering it dropped only 10% last week despite some direct male competition from Mel Gibson and it now has 9 Oscar nominations to brag about, you can expect another slim decline and $25 million+. That should be more than enough to secure victory against Channing Tatum and John Travolta.

    Tatum headlines “Dear John” with Amanda Seyfried, from the author of “The Notebook.” It’s a date movie for the date crowd and hey, did we mention it’s from the author of “The Notebook?” The premise sounds like a 1940s film, writing letters to a soldier and all. Shouldn’t the title be “New Facebook Message, RE: Miss U Lots xo <3?” Anyway, that very fact mixed with the cast should satisfy women of all ages and help this one to $21 million or so.

    The director of “Taken” is back and blowing more shit up with “From Paris With Love.” There are three reasons why this won’t be as successful. One: Mel Gibson’s movie may not have done well but it’s still out and still direct competition. Two: Lionsgate is releasing and there is a ceiling to what they can accomplish with an action film ($18 million). Three: Liam Neeson looked all sorts of badass in the “Taken” trailer. In this, John Travolta looks like the bouncer at the Jackhammer gay club in Tribeca. $13 million.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Darkness’ falls

    Edge of Darkness*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The self-proclaimed King of the World wiped the floor with the self-proclaimed King of Malibu as “Avatar” spent a seventh consecutive week at the top of the box office. A cool $30 million represents a drop of only 14% from last week and again sits only behind “Titanic” as the biggest seventh weekend tally ever.

    The running total is now $594.5 million and it should pass the $600 million mark by Wednesday, joining “E.T.: The Extra Terrestrial,” “Titanic,” “Return of the Jedi,” “Jurassic Park” and “Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace” as the only films of the modern era to do so. The success of this film has become so monotonous that I can’t even muster any energy to be snarky about it anymore.

    Mel Gibson’s return to the silver screen proved to be no “Taken.” It proved to not even be a “Legion” as it debuted with a soft $17.1 million. That’s the lowest debut for a Gibson joint since the $17 million start for “Braveheart” in 1995 on 1,000 less screens. Blame it on fading star power, bad accents, generic advertising and a lack of 3D smurf-like things riding dragons.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Charts of ‘Darkness’

    Mel Gibson in Edge of Darkness*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Lucky weekend number seven for “Avatar.” The top spot beckons once again and James Cameron will surely oblige. Another slim drop of 20% would give the wild blue wonder $26.2 million and put $600 million within it’s grubby little grasp.

    The only thing remotely standing in the way is the return of Mel Gibson, after an 8-year hiatus from leading roles. His last time in front of the camera and above the title was in “Signs,” which grossed $292.7 million and happens to be the biggest hit of his entire career. So technically, the man is on a roll.

    In fact, not counting his small part in “The Million Dollar Hotel,” Gibson’s last 12 pictures have all crossed the $100 million mark, dating back to “The Man Without a Face.” Say what you want about his Jew-hating, but he is one seriously bona fide movie star.

    “Edge of Darkness” bears more than a passing resemblance to both “Taken” and Gibson’s own “Payback.” Warner Bros. quickly pounced onto the release date of the former, which debuted with $24.7 million and then showed remarkable staying power through the Spring.  The latter opened in February 1999 to $31.2 million. Splitting the difference would give “Edge of Darkness” $28 million, but I think Gibson’s star has fallen enough to make that impossible. I’m thinking more like $23 million and second place.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Fairy’ bust

    Legion*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Blah blah blah blah “Avatar” blah blah number one blah blah blah $36 million. Second biggest sixth weekend ever, behind “Titanic.” $550 million+ in the bank, passing “The Dark Knight” and entering the top 10 highest grossing films of the modern era (1980 onward). The drop was only 16% from last weekend, which was a Holiday remember, and James Cameron’s fart will go on and on and on.

    “Legion” took the runner up spot with $18.2 million, and as I said on Friday, anything over $16 million would be a huge win. Sony just can’t lose with this kind of product and it will join “Vantage Point,” “21” and “Lakeview Terrace” as successful films that nobody will remember in two years. But anything that keeps Paul Bettany employed can’t be all bad.

    “The Book of Eli” drops 48% to third place and $17 million, which is pretty solid. With last Sunday’s figures inflated by the holiday and word-of-mouth not expected to be great, things could have been a lot worse for Denzel and the Hughes Brothers.

    “Tooth Fairy” failed to get off the ground, taking fourth place with $14.5 million and represents the second straight seemingly can’t-miss family film to drop the ball. I’d say that maybe kids and parents are raising their standards but “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” passed the $200 million mark on Saturday so…

    Just to recap: Denzel Washington films to make $200 million = zero. Singing chipmunk films to make $200 million = two.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Book’ report

    The Book of Eli*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    First off, I should apologize for neglecting to write a Friday Forecast column this week. Fridays are my day off from work so while I have plenty of time to cook up an article, it’s also the one day where the box office is farthest from my mind, so I beg your pardon. I’m pretty sure the world went on spinning without it and rest assured, I would have predicted all these numbers to the cent.

    So, our number one film this week is “Avatar.” That’s five weeks in a row and it’s the first film to accomplish that feat since “The Sixth Sense” a decade ago. Yes, the entire naughties nearly went by without a single film setting up residence at the top for more than four weeks.  The fact that “Avatar” has done it and dropped only 18% in the process is flat out jaw-dropping.

    The film grossed $41.3 million for the weekend, which is only 47% off from the film’s debut weekend almost a month ago. In other words, this would have been a perfectly respectable second weekend total, but as a fifth weekend, it trails only the $47 million of “Titanic.” So, Cameron’s latest has finally dipped below the weekly performance of his last, although “Titanic” only had $371 million at this point, while “Avatar” has $491.8 million.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: That ‘Avatar’ thing is doing well, eh?

    Avatar*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Have you guys heard of this movie “Avatar?” Apparently, seeing as it’s the number one movie for the fourth week in a row and dropped a ridiculous 29% to $48.5 million. First off, it’s the biggest fourth weekend for a film ever, narrowly eclipsing the $45 million of “Titanic.” Its running total of $429 makes it the 24th biggest film of the last 30 years and it’s only been out for 24 days.

    Remember how big “Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith” was? Well, “Avatar” will pass it tomorrow on the all time chart. Remember how ludicrous the grosses for “The Passion of the Christ” were? That’ll get passed on Tuesday.

    There’s no overstating the size of this film’s performance, and it’s time to start talking about a $600 million+ finish domestically. Since I was born in 1982, there have only been five films that have made that kind of money: “E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial,” “Titanic,” “Return of the Jedi,” “Jurassic Park” and “Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace.” Somewhere right now, James Cameron is shitting a gold brick.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: January blues

    Sam Worthington in Avatar*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Barring a catastrophe, “Avatar” should spend a comfortable fourth weekend at the top and cross $400 million in the process. That would make 2009 the first year since 2004 to have two films cross that milestone. It would also make “Avatar” the second-fastest film to hit that mark, after “The Dark Knight.”

    It took “Titanic” 36 days to reach $400 million and it only had $265.1 million at this point in its epic run. Still, there’s no way in hell “Avatar” can repeat the four month run at the top that James Cameron’s last film managed, or it’s $943.3 million final gross.

    Competition, if you can call it that, comes from three new releases with the stench of January seeping off their posters and trailers. Lionsgate hops on the vampire gravy train with “Daybreakers” featuring a cast that should know better. “Hostel” and “Rambo” have done well for the studio in Januaries of the past but I don’t see much more than $14 million heading this way.

    Amy Adams is doing her typecast image no favors by appearing in “Leap Year,” with Matthew Goode taking second billing. I follow movies for a living and I barely know who Matthew Goode is, so she shouldn’t expect much help from him in drawing the crowds.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Happy Blue Year

    Avatar*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Okay. What kind of fairy dust is James Cameron sprinkling in his films? Subliminal messages perhaps? There’s no other explanation. “Avatar” is the number one movie again this weekend, raking in $68.3 million, off 10% from last week. It becomes the first film to spend three straight weeks at the top since “Tropic Thunder” and that weekend tally is the all time record for a third weekend by a mile. “Spider-Man” previously held the title with $55.7 million.

    “Avatar” now has a running total of $352.1 million and will almost certainly pass $500 million before it exits theaters. Whether or not it can reach the $533.3 million of “The Dark Knight” is not certain, but with January’s releases looking particularly dismal, who knows? It is certain that Cameron’s film will become the second-highest grossing film of all time worldwide behind “Titanic,” and that is just ridiculous.

    The movie is already #94 all time domestically, and #16 of the decade. It’s the highest grossing non-sequel since “The Passion of the Christ” and should eventually be the highest grossing original property since “Titanic.” Box office figures of that nature are pure flukes and for a director to do it twice with completely different properties is jaw-dropping. James Cameron is, without a doubt, the king of the world.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Box office is a Festivus miracle!

    Sherlock Holmes*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Holy shit. There’s no other way to describe the box office this weekend, which may well go down as the most attended three days on record. Nearly 35 million tickets were sold and three films grossed more than $50 million each.

    The number one movie for the weekend is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” I mentioned in the comments last week that it needed to drop a maximum of 35% to be considered a formidable box office force and a film with working positive word of mouth. Well, it dropped 3% to a virtually identical $75 million.

    $212 mil in 10 days for the film is the 18th highest total for any film after that amount of time and you can expect one more massive weekend and top spot finish on the way. $400 million is a very real possibility now and Fox has to get a lot of credit for convincing audiences that this was a film that you simply had to see or risk being ostracized. (I know from experience.)

    “Sherlock Holmes” came in a very strong second with $65.4 million for the weekend. Only “The Day After Tomorrow” has ever made more money as a non-#1 film, when it was beaten by the second weekend of “Shrek 2” in 2004.  It’s the sixth biggest December debut of all time and the film’s Friday gross set a record for a Christmas Day figure.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Pandora’s tops

    Avatar*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Alright, let’s get down to brass tacks. “Avatar” is the number one movie of the weekend with a $73 million gross. This is an enormous figure, there’s no two ways about it. It’s the fourth-biggest December debut of all time. It’s the 26th-biggest debut of all time for a non-sequel. It’s the ninth-biggest debut of all time for a film with no previous source material or built-in fanbase.

    A record amount of money was spent on this production with only the reputation of James Cameron as a selling point and it may just pay off. A film like “I Am Legend” can debut in December with $80.6 million and with lukewarm reviews and word of mouth can make it all the way to a $264 million total. With the reception that “Avatar” has received and the inevitable batch of Oscar nominations, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t make $300 million domestically. It would need to match that overseas to even come close to profitability, but that should be no problem as the film already has $150 million in the bank overseas.

    It’s no secret that I thought the film looked stupid. I also would love nothing more than to never have to hear about 3D in movies again. But I also know that any time a film with an original screenplay from a distinct filmmaker can earn this type of money, it’s a good thing for the industry.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: A little ‘Princess’

    The Princess and the Frog*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Disney tasted a bit of its old early-1990s magic with the number one finish of “The Princess and the Frog” this week. The hand-drawn toon grossed $25 million after two phenomenal weeks in New York and Los Angeles only. “The Little Mermaid,” “Beauty and the Beast” and “Aladdin” all had similar Holiday season launches and only “Aladdin” went wide with a bigger total.

    Of course, all three were on far fewer venues than the 3,434 of “The Princess and the Frog,” but this is still a very encouraging figure.  Family entertainment is solid gold during the two weeks around Christmas and a finish well over $100 million should be no problem. These aren’t Pixar numbers, but they at least match up to “The Hunchback of Notre Dame,” “The Fox and the Hound” and other second-tier Disney classics. Or is that third-tier?

    “The Blind Side” takes second place with another $15.5 million and cruises past the $150 million mark. Another $3 million and it will pass “Remember the Titans” for the title of highest grossing sports drama since “Rocky.” The $246 million it would need to pass “The Waterboy” for the title of highest grossing football movie may be out of reach, but let’s all pause for a second to digest the fact that “The Waterboy” made $245 million.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Freeman vs. frog

    The Princess and the Frog*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    We are only one week away from the day that movie-going is changed forever so why even bother seeing anything now? I can’t be hassled by anything in only TWO dimensions! I didn’t buy these designer 3D/sunglasses for nothing!

    Disney really emphasizes the 2D this weekend with the wide launch of “The Princess and the Frog,” the studio’s first non-computer animated title since “Home on the Range” in 2004. That modest film grossed $57.8 million, despite ingeniously casting Roseanne as a cow, but the damage had already been done by “Treasure Planet” two years before.

    Intended to be Disney’s huge Thanksgiving family film, that flick grossed a terrible $46.9 million and effectively closed down the production house. Ironically enough, it’s John Lasseter who is spearheading the renaissance and the grosses here will go a long way towards deciding the future of the medium.

    Two weeks of exclusive engagements in New York and Los Angeles have been a gold mine and “A Christmas Carol” and “Planet 51” will not be offering much competition. “The Blind Side” might be the only obstacle in the way of a really large opening but I think this should be the number one film easy and earn $32 million or so. I know I’ll be there.

    (more…)