FRIDAY FORECAST: 72 degrees and ‘Avatar’

Posted by · 11:26 am · February 5th, 2010

John Travolta in From Paris with Love*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

“Avatar” has swept aside the entire January schedule with relative ease and is aiming for an eighth weekend at the top of the box office. Considering it dropped only 10% last week despite some direct male competition from Mel Gibson and it now has 9 Oscar nominations to brag about, you can expect another slim decline and $25 million+. That should be more than enough to secure victory against Channing Tatum and John Travolta.

Tatum headlines “Dear John” with Amanda Seyfried, from the author of “The Notebook.” It’s a date movie for the date crowd and hey, did we mention it’s from the author of “The Notebook?” The premise sounds like a 1940s film, writing letters to a soldier and all. Shouldn’t the title be “New Facebook Message, RE: Miss U Lots xo <3?” Anyway, that very fact mixed with the cast should satisfy women of all ages and help this one to $21 million or so.

The director of “Taken” is back and blowing more shit up with “From Paris With Love.” There are three reasons why this won’t be as successful. One: Mel Gibson’s movie may not have done well but it’s still out and still direct competition. Two: Lionsgate is releasing and there is a ceiling to what they can accomplish with an action film ($18 million). Three: Liam Neeson looked all sorts of badass in the “Taken” trailer. In this, John Travolta looks like the bouncer at the Jackhammer gay club in Tribeca. $13 million.

“Crazy Heart” and “An Education” each add about 600 screens looking for that Oscar bump. The latter’s will be minimal but Jeff Bridges and company should jump to about $6 million and into the top 10.

Expect “Edge of Darkness” to drop 45% and “When in Rome” to do the same. Oh, and “Avatar” passed $600 million on Tuesday, which means something a little extra to all you commenters that complain about my adjusted numbers.

What are you seeing this week?

→ 7 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Box Office · Friday Forecast

7 responses so far

  • 1 2-05-2010 at 11:34 am

    Homero said...

    I work at a mainstream movie theater that’s getting both of those craptastic films, which, like the other crap from January, I’ll be avoiding.

    I’ve made plans to see An Education again and The Hurt Locker for the 4th time in theaters (Twice on DVD so my total should be at 6 by this time next week).

    Also, did you know you added the Heath Ledger tag without mentioning Dr. Parnassus? The audacity you must have to consciously deceive people who search by tags…

  • 2 2-05-2010 at 11:42 am

    Joel said...

    I’m seeing “From Paris with Love” a little later on today, and “Dear John” tomorrow.

    What are you seeing, Chad?

  • 3 2-05-2010 at 11:43 am

    James D. said...

    I might see Up in the Air again. What a lovely film.

  • 4 2-05-2010 at 12:04 pm

    tim said...

    Don’t forget about the Super Bowl which will be a blow to any films seeking a male audience this weekend.

    “An Education” has already come and gone from my local theater and I missed it thinking I had more time. Maybe I’ll get a second chance.

  • 5 2-05-2010 at 12:13 pm

    Fitz said...

    At this point I’ll have to see Hurt Locker on a RedBox rental.

  • 6 2-05-2010 at 5:10 pm

    Joel said...

    “From Paris with Love” is terrible. Especially following something as awesome as “Taken.”

  • 7 2-06-2010 at 2:55 am

    Justin said...

    You know, I was on a plane from Taipei to Kuala Lumpur yesterday and, by chance, both The Hurt Locker and An Education were on (as well as Where The Wild Things Are and The Dark Knight). I’d seen all of them but was very happy with the selection. I’ve noticed this before, but when flying in winter the Oscar movies all show up and it’s a lot of fun to have the choice. Not sure what The Dark Knight was doing there (timewise, not qualitywise).

    Add to this the free wine that allowed me to sleep at 8 am, and it was a fine morning.