In Contention

Tag: Box Office

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Babies’!

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The babies are finally here guys! You’ve oohed and ahhed at penguins and oceans and Michael Moore, but this documentary finally gives you the chance to ooh and ahh at humans. Specifically, little ones. There’s also a silly sounding movie about a man who wears a suit made of armor, but it’s not even set in medieval times. He also fights some Russian villain, but it’s not even set in Cold War times.

    Most importantly, it’s officially summer according to Hollywood! Go to the beach, confess your love to your crush and cash in those time shares people!

    “Iron Man 2” is opening in 4,380 theaters today. That’s the biggest number for a debuting film in history. The first film in the franchise kicked off the 2008 summer season with a $109.2 million debut, en route to a fantastic $352.6 million total, earning more than supposed-summer titan “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” in the process. As far as sequels go, you can add as many stars, villains, explosions and cameos that you want but the most potent weapon in your arsenal will always be the popularity of the original, and “Iron Man” was extremely popular. An improved debut figure is a virtual certainty but the all time record of $175.4 million for “The Dark Knight” is probably safe.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Steady Krueger

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    26 years ago, “A Nightmare on Elm Street” opened to $2.9 million on 165 screens and enjoyed healthy word of mouth to reach $55.5 million total, putting Wes Craven and New Line Cinema on the map in the process. Now New Line is owned by Warner Bros. and Wes Craven is back to milking a different old cash cow, but Freddy Krueger has made his way back to the silver screen. Jackie Earle Haley takes over for Robert Englund and audiences showed enough interest to cough up $32.2 million to check it out.

    That’s better than the $29.2 million of “Halloween,” but not quite as good as the $35.5 million of “The Texas Chainsaw Massacre.” Word of mouth is almost guaranteed to be poisonous and it may as well not exist when “Iron Man 2” opens next week so I’d consider it a success if the film can make $60 million total. That should still be profitable for Warner Bros. and ensure at least six or seven sequels.

    The only other new release was “Furry Vengeance,” which took fifth place and $6.5 million. It’s too depressing to even dedicate a few minutes trying thinking of a joke for this movie. I actually think “Cruel Intentions” and “Just Friends” are better than they should be so it’s a shame to see Roger Kumble fall so far. He was probably my favorite hack director, but now he’s lost me.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Your worst ‘Nightmare’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The summer movie season doesn’t officially start until next weekend, but Warner Bros. aims to get a jump on things by releasing their high profile horror remake, “A Nightmare on Elm Street” before the storm. By all accounts, it should work, as horror audiences have proven time and again that they’ll fork over their money to see any movie they previously liked redone with slightly darker lighting, slightly less imagination and infinitely more budget money.

    I once thought that this particular remake was doomed because unlike the Jason or Halloween franchises, the iconic central character was tied to one actor and fickle audiences might not respond to any recasting. Of course, this was ridiculous thinking on my part and this film will be bigger than either of those other reboots. At least on opening weekend. “Friday the 13th” made $41.4 million on its opening weekend last year, with the help of Monday being a holiday and I think we can look for something similar here. And hundreds of lazy hipsters who already own striped red sweaters have locked down their Halloween costumes.

    I think the next horror flick to get a remake should be “April Fool’s Day.” That thing scared the crap out of me when I was a kid. Or “The Peanut Butter Solution,” which isn’t a horror film but something that still haunts me to this day. His hair just grows and grows!

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: For real this time, ‘Dragon’ ‘Back-Up’ to #1

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    No photo finishes and no Monday recounts needed. “How to Train Your Dragon” has definitely topped the chart this weekend, four weeks after debuting there. The last time a film leapt back up to number one after a three week hiatus was “The Passion of the Christ,” which had the help of Easter weekend to do it. It is, quite simply, a feat that isn’t possible in today’s box office climate and Paramount should be congratulated for their efforts. The film dropped a tiny 24% to $15.0 million and is well on course to pass the $200 million mark that “Monsters vs. Aliens” couldn’t hit last year. It’s also the lowest gross for a number one film since September.

    Jennifer Lopez proved she still has some of the goods by lifting “The Back-Up Plan” to second place and $12.3 million. That’s already more than “Extraordinary Measures” made total and gives CBS Films reason to keep their doors open for a few more months. I have no idea why this film did this well except that there hasn’t been an old fashioned romantic comedy since “Valentine’s Day.” I’m still also not sure why there are even hijinks or complications in this plot. The guy falls in love with her… but she’s pregnant! So?

    “The Losers” became a self-fulfilling prophecy for Warner Bros., entering the chart at number four with $9.6 million. To give you some perspective, some terrible movie called “The Marine” starring a wrestler opened to $8.3 million a few years ago. That’s the calibre of performance we’re talking about. The studio might have had better luck naming the film what it actually is, “The Cocky Douchebags.”

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: A bunch of ‘Losers’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Jennifer Lopez hasn’t been on screen since “El Cantante” in 2007 and hasn’t toplined a romantic comedy since “Monster-in-Law” in 2005. That’s a long, five year gap and it’s no surprise that J. Lo is returning to the only genre that has brought her success to make a comeback. Unless you count “Anaconda,” which I don’t, because obviously, the real star of that movie was Owen Wilson.

    But now she’s back with “The Back Up Plan,” a hilarious comedy about first dates and due dates. And kooky lesbians having natural birth parties and playing bongos. Lopez will get no help courting audiences from her male co-star, who is completely unknown to anyone who isn’t an enormous fan of “Whiteout” or “The Invisible.”

    She is getting a lot of help from CBS Films, who are promoting the living piss out of the movie, despite seeing no return for similar efforts with “Extraordinary Measures.” The trailers are weak, the premise is ridiculous and the leading actress is on the decline. So why do I get a horrible feeling that this will actually do alright? The market is a wasteland at the moment and romantic comedies are nowhere to be found so I think this one may walk away with $11 million or so.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: New releases ‘Dragon’ behind

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Internet nerds once again failed to make their presence known at the multiplex as “Kick Ass” surrendered to the runner-up spot on a relatively weak frame. As significant as online and fanboy buzz can be, time and again it has led to disappointing debuts more than bank-breaking grosses. “Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow,” “Grindhouse,” and “Snakes on a Plane” are just a few of the recent examples. If it wasn’t for the success of “Sin City” and “300,” Hollywood would probably disregard the internet all together.

    But let’s start at the top. “How to Train Your Dragon” becomes the first film since “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” to return to the summit of the box office after a hiatus. A slim drop of 20% earned the animated comedy $20.0 million and ups the cume to $158.6 million after four weeks. The $229.8 million it would need to become the highest grossing non-“Shrek” film for DreamWorks Animation is not out of the question, although still a bit unlikely.

    “Kick Ass” debuts with $19.8 million and will still end up profitable for Lionsgate and the filmmakers, but reiterates the ceiling for R-rated comic book adaptations. Coincidentally, the debut is almost identical to another R-rated action flick that Lionsgate bought after fanboys went nuts at preview footage- “Rambo.” It may have suffered from some younger kids buying tickets to “Dragon” and sneaking in, but it may have also suffered from the amount of people who get boners thinking about pre-teen girls with guns being significantly lower than expected.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Ass’ vs. crass

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Ever since it unveiled footage at Comic-Con last year, fanboys and internet hounds have been frothing at the mouth for Matthew Vaughn’s “Kick Ass” and now it has finally arrived. Internet buzz is deafening, but also misleading as it’s never quite clear whether we are looking at a “300” or a “Snakes on a Plane.” Lionsgate doesn’t have a whole lot at stake, picking up distribution rights after the film was nearly complete and only really needs to recoup their marketing costs, which still seem to be a pretty penny.

    The R-rating and the lack of a huge studio behind it limits the potential, as does the fact that it celebrates children inflicting violence. Of course that’s also the very thing that makes it so appealing to the target audience. So if you think that above photo is awesome and totally subversive, then you’ve probably already bought your ticket. I think there will be roughly $23 million worth of you.

    Fresh off of remaking Eric Rohmer, Chris Rock takes on Frank Oz. That transition is only natural. “Death at a Funeral” only came out two and a half years ago, but that version didn’t have bloated Luke Wilson or bloated Martin Lawrence. For those that do need a sense of continuity, a non-bloated Peter Dinklage returns.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Date’ and ‘Titans’ clash

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Every studio but Fox is reporting that “Clash of the Titans” won the box office this weekend, but Rupert Murdoch and co. insist it was, in fact, “Date Night.” Final results won’t be unveiled until tomorrow, but for now, we have to take their word for it. And if Rupert Murdoch’s word isn’t valuable, I don’t know what is.

    So, “Date Night” is number one with $27.1 million smackers. As I mentioned on Friday, that’s below the $29.9 million of “Mean Girls,” but better than the $18.4 million debut of “Baby Mama,” both of which also opened in April. Lesson here is that Lindsay Lohan circa 2004 or Steve Carell > Amy Poehler and Dax Shepherd. I don’t see how Fox can not be disappointed with this figure. There was no other new films opening, “Clash of the Titans” was always going to capsize, and “Obsessed” opened with $29.2 million last April. Raise your hand if you even remember “Obsessed?”

    Reviewers weren’t great but it’s word of mouth that counts here and I’m not sure that was so great either. As an action/comedy hybrid, it doesn’t help that next week sees the release of an action film and a comedy so it could be a quick exit to DVD for “Date Night,” where couples won’t actually need to make one to see it.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Save the ‘Date’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The one and only new studio release this weekend is “Date Night” from Fox. The film stars Steve Carell and Tina Fey, who both have legions of fans from their Thursday night NBC television shows, and a number of decent box office hits under their belt as well. Still, it’s always a bit of a risk asking audiences to pay $10 for a pairing that they more or less see every week at home for free. Granted, here they are together, but there needs to be a little more to it. The concept here is standard paper-thin studio comedy fare and I’m a little surprised at the way this has been marketed.

    Action/comedies/romances can really strike a chord with audiences of all ages, as seen with Fox’s own “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” but the studio seems to be content purely selling this as a comedy. The posters are a snooze and the trailers only half-heartedly advertise the amazing supporting cast, which includes Mark Wahlberg, James Franco and Mila Kunis.

    But again, the posters only want you to know that Steve Carell and Tina Fey are in a movie together and you should see it. I can’t help but see missed opportunity all over this thing and a $30 million debut is about the best it can hope for. $25 million might be more like the final result though, which wouldn’t even match the $29.9 million April 2004 debut of “Mean Girls.” Incidentally, if you want to see a date movie but think Shawn Levy is an artistic void, check out “Luke and Brie Are on a First Date,” now streaming for free on Babelgum. And that’s the last plug I’ll ever do, I swear.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Cash of the ‘Titans’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Alright. “Clash of the Titans” is the number one film at the box office with a weekend take of $61.4 million. Is that a tally worthy of the Gods? Simply put, in my opinion, no. Let’s set aside the 3D for a second and just pretend that isn’t a factor. Three years ago, “300” was able to debut with $78.4 million in the wastelands of March with arguably less recognizable source material and no recognizable star power. On this very same weekend last year, “Fast & Furious” opened to $72.4 million, setting a new record for the month of April and proving that huge grosses can come on any weekend in any month.

    The budget on “Titans” was huge and Warner Bros. spent a small fortune hastily adding 3D at the last minute to try and soullessly suck out a few more bucks. In the shortest of short term, this may have worked, but the word of mouth has been atrocious and a lot of it has to do with the 3D so I expect this to drop like a rock and barely finish around $125 million. With overseas markets, that’ll be enough and yet another lifeless remake earns its stripes thanks to you (if you saw it).

    Far more impressive, is the $30.2 million start of “Why Did I Get Married Too?” Tyler Perry’s movies have been the height of consistency, with his Madea titles earning $30 million plus and his Madea-less dramedies earning in the low $20 million range. Now he’s bucked the trend and proved that he doesn’t need a fat suit to register huge numbers. Seriously, there’s nothing harder than opening a drama about adults to $30 million. And that is why Lionsgate is changing their name to Tyler Perry’s Lionsgate.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: ‘Dragon’ slays

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    I trust your dragons have been sufficiently trained. Despite sounding like a codename for masturbation amongst middle schoolers, “How to Train Your Dragon” is the number one movie at the box office with $43.3 million smackers. Depending on how you look at things, this result could be great or okay. Considering that Paramount and DreamWorks scored $60.5 million for “Monsters vs. Aliens” last March, it may look like a disappointment. But that film came out when 3D was still a novelty and had a hook right in the title that was simply never gonna miss with kids.

    Now 3D is everywhere and ticket prices rose steeply over the weekend, possibly hindering the performance. Theater owners may want to chill out a bit because as soon as going to the movies becomes a luxury that the poor can no longer afford, it will cease to be a recession-proof business. In any case, you can continue to expect one big budget computer animated title every March until the end of time.

    “Alice in Wonderland” relinquished its three week hold on the throne by slipping 49% to $17.3 million. That drop is mainly due to the loss of precious 3D venues, but the film already has just a shade under $300 million total so don’t shed any tears. I’m just waiting for CNN to break the story that Tim Burton has been locked in a basement somewhere for the last fifteen years and his twin brother has been directing movies armed only with some black and white striped fabric and VHS copies of previous Tim Burton films as his filmmaking training.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Dragon’ art

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Years of frustration over how to precisely train my dragon will be resolved today as Paramount has released the informative documentary, “How to Train Your Dragon.” There’s one of these bawdy animated titles every March and they usually do pretty damn well. “Monsters vs. Aliens” debuted with $60.5 million last year and “Horton Hears a Who!” snagged $47.7 million the year before.

    I think “Dragon” will fall closer to the latter than the former since it has no famous source material and failed to put the one word in its title that would have excited young boys:  Vikings! Hello? Who makes an animated movie about Vikings and doesn’t put that in the title? It’s like naming “Toy Story” “Escape From the Room.”

    Now, the movie is in 3D and on over 4,000 screens so it’s almost impossible for it not to be huge. I’m just thinking somewhere around $45 million for this one.

    The only other movie opening wide is “Hot Tub Time Machine” from MGM. The studio hasn’t released a movie since “Fame” and is more or less dead and bankrupt. They’d like you to think that this is the new “The Hangover,” but the concept is way more wacky and esoteric.

    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Dear ‘Diary,’ Why wasn’t I in 3D?

    Diary of a Wimpy Kid*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    I haven’t heard a single person say “Alice in Wonderland” is anything but awful yet here we stand at its third weekend atop the box office. The film added another $34.5 million to its staggering tally of $265.8 million and I don’t really know what to say about that. In 17 days it has already matched the totals of films like “Star Trek,” “Gladiator” and “Pearl Harbor.” Something is bringing people to this product in ridiculous numbers and barring a better explanation, Hollywood is assuming that it’s the 3D so get ready to see “Little Fockers” and “True Grit” in an extra dimension this Christmas. Hell, get ready to see Burger King commercials in 3D soon enough.

    Second place goes to “Diary of a Wimpy Kid,” which exceeded expectations with $21.8 million. I attribute this to the robust star power of Zachary Gordon and his monumentally popular voice work in “Santa Buddies.” Fox’s marketing managed to make the PG-rated flick look appealing to teenagers and some young adults without alienating kids and parents like “Drillbit Taylor” did so kudos to them.

    “The Bounty Hunter” is a surprising third place finisher with $21.0 million. Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler are the epitome of modern movie stars where they have a number of big films under their belt and solid name recognition but can’t open just any old movie to big numbers. Luckily, their pairing here and Sony’s marketing muscle earned them just enough to stay on the B-list. Your move “Killers.”

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Bounty’ soft

    Gerard Butler in The Bounty Hunter*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Forgive me if this entry seems a little rushed, but I’ve been flying most of the day and detoxing from South by Southwest. It was my first time attending since 2006 and the growth in scope, prestige and attendance since then was staggering. The quality and selection of films, however, has not suffered and there remains no better film festival in the United States to see unique, low budget independent films that may or may not make it to your local multiplex. “Cold Weather,” “Passenger Pigeons,” “Putty Hill,” “The Myth of the American Sleepover” and “Tiny Furniture” are just a few that you should keep your eyes on.

    But enough about those itty bitty movies nobody cares about. How about “The Bounty Hunter?” Starring the only Friend to successfully craft a big screen career out of that small screen sensation and some Irish bloke that seems to really get off on playing chauvinists. And why not, since in Hollywood they get to treat the girl like shit and still win her in the end. One of three films coming out in the next few months with a hapless woman thrust together with a man of action (“Killers” and “Knight & Day” being the others), Sony was smart to push this one out first and should see something around $20 million for their troubles.

    Fox adapts a famous (so I’ve heard) series of young adult books with “Diary of a Wimpy Kid” and I heard it pitched as a PG-rated “Superbad” for middle schoolers. Truth be told, I think it actually looks pretty good and with no major kids product out there it may have a chance at some success. Unless it comes off as too raunchy for kids and too immature for teens and then Fox will be in trouble. I think it can give America $13 million worth of wedgies.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: Lean ‘Zone’

    Matt Damon in Green Zone*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass return to the screen this week with their third collaboration and first outside of the Jason Bourne series. That particular franchise has done wonders for the careers of both men, particularly Greengrass, who won an Oscar nomination for “United 93,” but didn’t exactly see the film break the bank. Damon too, was just recognized by the Academy but had one of his leanest box office years on record with the stuttering “The Informant!” and “Invictus.”

    So here they stand with “Green Zone,” a stylistic twin to their bread and butter series. Universal is doing everything they possibly can to pretend this is just another Bourne film and has absolutely nothing to do with Iraq. “The Bourne Supremacy” debuted with $64.4 million en route to a $216.0 million finish. “The Bourne Ultimatum” did even better with a $76.6 million start and $251.6 million total. Compare that to the $14.7 million of “The Hurt Locker.” The best the Iraq War has ever done at the box office is the $52.6 million of “The Kingdom.” The only thing more poisonous at the box office than Iraq is Eddie Murphy. Hey-Oh! I think we’re looking at a subdued $18 million debut here.

    “She’s Out of My League” takes the subtext of every Judd Apatow produced comedy and makes it the whole plot. Ugly funny dude lands a boring hot chick and hopefully we all get a couple chuckles out of it. This is obviously trying to be for Jay Baruchel what “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” was for Jason Segal but I’m afraid that film’s $18.8 million debut will be out its league. Double digits will be a good result at this point so I’m saying $10 million.
    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: A very important date

    Alice in Wonderland*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    May I introduce the film with the 14th biggest debut of all time, “Alice in Wonderland.” It’s also the biggest March debut, biggest 3D debut and third biggest non-sequel debut of all time. If your goal was to ensure that Tim Burton continues to lazily adapt his gothic style to beloved material over and over again, job well done America.

    Let’s just take a step back for a second. $116.3 million is the figure we’re looking at, which places it right between “X-Men: The Last Stand” and “The Matrix Reloaded.” Those are both huge sequels, released around Memorial Day and are expected to be in this kind of vicinity. No film has ever opened with $100 million outside of May, June, July or November before today but the combination of Burton, Johnny Depp and a bunch of characters made out of McDonalds happy meal toys proved too irresistible to ignore.

    Somehow Burton has built an entire career out of franchises, remakes and studio product aimed at merchandise as much as artistry, yet still maintained auteur credibility and worldwide acclaim. Congratulations to him for that, but a little more “Edward Scissorhands” and a little less “Alice in Wonderland” would be nice.

    (more…)

  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Alice’ super

    Mia Wasikowska in Alice in Wonderland*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Hot on the heels of “Avatar” crossing the $700 million mark to way less fanfare than I would have thought that would warrant six months ago, 2010 unleashes its very first 3D blockbuster.

    Everything about Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” screams smash hit and despite looking completely unappealing in every way to yours truly, it will no doubt break some box office records this weekend. Namely, the all-time biggest March debut currently held by the $78.4 million of “300.”

    How much higher can it go?

    Well, I think it’s safe to say that Burton’s personal best, the $92.1 million start for “Planet of the Apes,” is out of reach, but stranger things have happened. Like “Planet of the Apes” grossing $92.1 million for instance. Between the Disney brand, the 3D gimmick, Burton’s cache and Johnny Depp’s star power, every demographic is being reached and with competition non-existent, things are looking very good. I’m going to say $82 million.
    (more…)

  • SUNDAY CENTS: Win for ‘Shutter,’ new films stutter

    Cop Out*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Kevin Smith has never had a number one film at the box office and Martin Scorsese has ensured that he won’t buck the trend in 2010. “Shutter Island” is the top box office performer for the second weekend in a row, dropping 46% to $22.2 million. That puts it firmly in the could-have-been worse, could-have-been-better category and with $75.1 million in the bank so far, Paramount can consider their decision to move out of October justified, particularly since I don’t think the Oscars would have touched it with a 10-foot pole, but that’s just me.

    Smith’s “Cop Out” did manage an $18.6 million debut, handily becoming a career-high for its director. For Bruce Willis, on the other hand, it falls somewhere between “The Whole Nine Yards” and “The Kid,” amongst a bevy of forgettable titles. Reviews were scathing and drops should be harsh so it will be a close race with the $46 million of “Dogma” to the title of Smith’s biggest hit. If Warner Bros. was using this as an audition for a bigger franchise, I think Silent Bob has fluffed his chance. It should also be noted that the figure is inflated slightly by the extra seats Smith has to buy for himself when he went.

    Not too far off in third is “The Crazies,” which managed a $16.5 million debut from nearly 700 fewer screens than “Cop Out,” giving it the second-best per theater average in the top 10. Overture did a good job of raising awareness and interest amongst the target audience, which must not include me, because I never saw a single thing about it once, anywhere.

    (more…)