FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Cop’ and a laugh

Posted by · 9:34 am · February 26th, 2010

(from left) Tracy Morgan and Bruce Willis in Cop Out*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

It’s the last full weekend before the Oscars. Have you seen all the nominees yet? I sure haven’t. In fact, there isn’t a single category where I’ve seen every film and can have an educated opinion. That’s not likely to change before the big day since I’ve been happy to put the 2009 movie-going year to bed for a while.

There’s plenty of new joy to be found! Like “Cop Out,” the first big budget studio outing from Kevin Smith. Primarily known as the guy behind a bunch of movies your college roommate likes, he is notably absent from all press materials for the Bruce Willis/Tracy Morgan buddy flick.

Willis typically can’t open straight-forward action films to very much, unless they have the words “Die” and “Hard” in them. Recent run-of-the-mill efforts include “Surrogates” ($15.2 million), “16 Blocks” ($13.8 million) and “Hostage” ($12.1 million).

There’s little to indicate that the addition of Morgan or Smith will take those tallies much higher, particularly since the biggest debut Kevin Smith has ever seen is $14.8 million for “Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back.” If only his rabid fanbase could convince a date to join them, his grosses could double. I’m seeing $18 million for this one and a close race for the top with “Shutter Island.”

Scorsese’s thriller can expect a hefty drop in the 50-55% range, but that would still give it close to $20 million and the win. Anything less than 40% would be phenomenal, ensuring a final gross above $100 million and proving my poisonous word of mouth to be ineffective.

Overture comes into the ring with a horror remake called “The Crazies.” I haven’t seen an ad for this thing anywhere but apparently Timothy Olyphant is the star. Dumb horror films have been suspiciously absent from most of the year so far so it’s possible that there’s an appetite for this, but with “Shutter Island” sort of catering to that market already and a novice studio behind the wheel, I can’t see anything more than $13 million.

Oscar watchers in major cities can also keep an eye out for nominee “A Prophet,” which finally sees a Stateside release.

This will also be the weekend that “Avatar” passes the $700 million mark, joining “E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial,” “Titanic” and “Return of the Jedi” in that exclusive club. And what do all four films have in common? Nothing really.

What are you guys seeing?

→ 10 Comments Tags: , , , , , , | Filed in: Box Office · Friday Forecast

10 responses so far

  • 1 2-26-2010 at 9:46 am

    Adam Smith said...

    Hoping to do the most depressing double-header of all time: The White Ribbon and A Single Man.

  • 2 2-26-2010 at 10:38 am

    Bob McBob said...

    The most depressing double-header would have to include two Darren Aronofsky films: “Requiem for a Dream” and “The Wrestler”; seeing those two films back-to-back would make you kill yourself.

  • 3 2-26-2010 at 10:57 am

    Daniel said...

    I’m quite the dubious film snob, and even I’m sort of interested in The Crazies. But this weekend, I’ll be checking out The Ghost Writer.

  • 4 2-26-2010 at 11:05 am

    Rob said...

    The Crazies is surprisingly good. Cop Out is worse than bad. A totally abysmal piece of shit, and I’m generally a Smith apologist.

  • 5 2-26-2010 at 11:49 am

    Dean Treadway said...

    The thing they all have in common is they are all special effects-driven movies.

  • 6 2-26-2010 at 12:34 pm

    Adam said...

    I just got out of seeing Fish Tank and was pleasantly surprised. On to Ghost Writer tonight….

  • 7 2-26-2010 at 1:25 pm

    Liz said...

    I’ve been called a film snob once or twice in my life, but I’m seeing “The Crazies” as well. The fact that I’ve become obsessed with Timothy Olyphant and “Deadwood” on DVD might have something to do with it. But, supposedly it’s pretty good.

  • 8 2-27-2010 at 7:44 am

    MovieMan said...

    “Cop Out” is pretty much destined to top my Worst of the Year list: it’s an atrocious, interminable, repugnant piece of trash from start to finish. Nothing in it even comes close to being funny in any way.

    “The Crazies” is more mediocre than it should have been. It just copies the same old thing and comes across as an “Invasion of the Body Snatchers” rip off.

    “The Ghost Writer” is an intoxicating thriller, I think. Pierce Brosnan, Ewan McGregor, Tom Wilkinson, Olivia Williams–all give intense, brilliant performances.

  • 9 2-27-2010 at 12:15 pm

    Kevin Smith said...

    I was just hired to direct. I did not write the movie.

  • 10 2-28-2010 at 10:08 am

    Mike_M said...

    Saw Shutter Island and loved it and then right after that I finally caught White Ribbon and also loved it. Hoping it wins the Oscar since I had some problems with A Prophet and those were the only Foreign noms I saw.