In Contention

FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Alice’ super

Mia Wasikowska in Alice in Wonderland*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

Hot on the heels of “Avatar” crossing the $700 million mark to way less fanfare than I would have thought that would warrant six months ago, 2010 unleashes its very first 3D blockbuster.

Everything about Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” screams smash hit and despite looking completely unappealing in every way to yours truly, it will no doubt break some box office records this weekend. Namely, the all-time biggest March debut currently held by the $78.4 million of “300.”

How much higher can it go?

Well, I think it’s safe to say that Burton’s personal best, the $92.1 million start for “Planet of the Apes,” is out of reach, but stranger things have happened. Like “Planet of the Apes” grossing $92.1 million for instance. Between the Disney brand, the 3D gimmick, Burton’s cache and Johnny Depp’s star power, every demographic is being reached and with competition non-existent, things are looking very good. I’m going to say $82 million.

“Brooklyn’s Finest” debuted over a year ago at Sundance and was bought, along with a few other titles, by new company Senator Films. The wannabe distributor opened one film, “The Informers,” before going bust, and Overture stepped in to give Antoine Fuqua’s crime-saga a new life.

Even die hard fans of the corrupt cop genre have to recognize that this is nothing but a patchwork of clichés and posturing that somehow attracted decent talent. Of course, it also attracted Wesley Snipes. Overture’s push has been minimal so I think $7 million is about all they can hope for.

And that’s all she wrote. Rival studios knew that there was a potential juggernaut here and avoided Burton’s film like the plague. I plan to do the same. What are you guys seeing, or do I have to ask?

Comments

11 responses to “FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Alice’ super”

  1. Ryan Avatar
    Ryan

    Planet of the Apes made $92 million in today’s dollars?? That’s quite shocking to me.

  2. Kevin Avatar
    Kevin

    I thought Batman was Burton’s highest grosser?

  3. Bernard Avatar

    Not sure how you can say the push for Brooklyn’s Finest has been minimal, they did have a Super Bowl ad. I’m also pretty sure those trailers playing Run This Town are on every single commercial break on ESPN. I think the movie comes in closer to 16 or 17 mil…

    I also think more like 45-48 mil for Alice in Wonderland – I just don’t think it’s going to open SO much bigger than Where The Wild Things Are. Though maybe it’s just the total lack of appeal of the preview.

    Batman, I believe, is Burton’s highest grossing movie total whereas Apes is the best opening.

  4. Kevin Avatar
    Kevin

    Ah, I misread that statement then. I was like, no way Apes outgrossed BATMAN, which, before Nolan came along and totally blew us away, was a big deal of a movie. Anywho, I’d be willing to predict Alice beating out Apes, it has the family demographic, as Burton has stated that the film is not dark, but pure family entertainment. It’s got a pretty huge target audience, I imagine that will help.

    And LOL at Chad hating on yet another 3D film. Tired of making Avatar jokes?

  5. al b. Avatar
    al b.

    Alice super! That is probably the best pun EVER!

    $75 million for Alice and $10 million for Brooklyn’s Finest this weekend, count on it!

  6. James D. Avatar

    Can someone explain Alice super to me?

  7. MovieMan Avatar
    MovieMan

    “Well, I think it’s safe to say that Burton’s personal best, the $92.1 million start for ‘Planet of the Apes,’ is out of reach, but stranger things have happened. Like ‘Planet of the Apes’ grossing $92.1 million for instance.”

    I. Love. That. It does surprise me. That film was pretty solid, but easily his least good movie. Better than “Batman,” “Batman Returns,” and “Beetle Juice,” anyway.

  8. MovieMan Avatar
    MovieMan

    Oh and while I’m at it…

    “Alice in Wonderland” is one of Burton’s weakest films to date. Huge dud. Sort of like “Avatar,” actually, in regards to big-budget 3D movie events.

  9. Jim T Avatar
    Jim T

    Well, I actually have (almost) high expectations for Alice. It might be bad and the connection to Avatar doesn’t help. Still, I am definetely seeing it. I hope I won’t cry for my money :p

  10. Chad Hartigan Avatar

    It’s just a pun on Alice Cooper

  11. Bernard Avatar

    The crow I’m eating over Alice in Wonderland’s opening weekend (looking like a potential $120 mil weekend now…) tastes delightful.

    Looking like 13+ for Brooklyn’s Finest at this point.