In Contention

Category: Off the Carpet

  • OFF THE CARPET: Pump your brakes

    Mark Wahlberg in The Lovely BonesIt is true.  The annual Oscar season has forged an epidemic of instant judgment and facile analysis that has become a fairly significant blight on the fraternity of film criticism.

    Not everyone is guilty.  In fact, most aren’t.  But from where I sit, and speaking solely for myself, the initial quality-assessors of the industry have twisted their roles as measured, considerate analysts into something resembling auctioneers, barking verdicts and moving to the next thing.  And this time of year, it seems the desire to offer that judgment first has murdered many a season’s darling.

    This year’s victim, as I see it, is Peter Jackson’s meticulously crafted masterwork “The Lovely Bones.”

    As of this writing, I have seen the film four times.  The first occasion left me with a strong desire to keep things to myself.  A few thoughts on Oscar Talk were as much as I was willing to offer.  No, my opinion isn’t so sacred that it deserves such handling.  But the film, in my view, is.  And no one who has doled out a viewpoint seems to have been willing to let this film breathe a little before jumping to their conclusions.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Let it all bleed out

    Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely BonesEvery now and then this season, I’ve sat down and taken on the fool’s errand of deciphering what 2009, the year in film, has been “about.”  It’s silly because a given film year is the result of years and years of preparation and development, so to think a collective thematic consciousness settles in is a bit of a stretch.

    This year alone we have a swift production that at this time last year saw the filmmaker still in the editing suite for his late-2008 entry, while on the other side of the spectrum, a forward-thinking director will finally see the end of a decades-long journey for an anticipated “game-changer.”  Movies come from a thousand different places and a thousand different perspectives.

    Nevertheless, I’ve always come back to one thought on this year’s slate of films: catharsis.  With expected exceptions here and there, in one way or another, the bulk of what we’ve seen on screens in 2009 has very much been about emotional purging, bleeding out the past and, not to be too on-the-nose with the zeitgeist connotations, change.

    Let me illustrate.  The most and the least compelling examples are the best place to start: Lars Von Trier’s “Antichrist” and Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus,” respectively.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Field of adaptations

    Amy Adams in Julie & JuliaAs always, the year’s adapted screenplay race is much more competitive than the original screenplay race. But what’s intriguing to note is that of the anticipated “big four” still to be widely screened, three of them are right in the thick of this discussion.

    In the case of “Nine,” there is a chance for Anthony Minghella to receive his second posthumous Oscar nomination in as many years, something I don’t think we’ve seen since James Dean. But sometimes the razzle-dazzle of a movie musical can overshadow what craft there might be on the page, so it’s no slam dunk. Michael Tolkin is co-writer on the script, and even though I’ve seen the film, I’m prohibited from offering my thoughts on the work.

    “The Lovely Bones,” meanwhile, is adapted from a beloved novel, looks to feature a more reserved and refined Peter Jackson than we’ve seen in recent years and could see the lovable trio (Jackson, Philippa Boyens and Fran Walsh) back in Oscar’s good graces. We’ll know when we see it.

    The Royals and invited British press get their look on the 24th. Harry Knowles has received his typical peek (as Paramount continues to nurture the relationship as if it’s 2002 and AICN still moves the needle). The rest of the US press corps has to wait until the other side of the holiday on the 27th to judge. Hopefully we’ll still care by then. I heard some scathing criticisms out of an exhibitor screening last week.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Original players

    (from left) Jeremy Renner and Evangeline Lilly in The Hurt LockerWhen I had the unmitigated gall last week to project a set of winners for this year’s Oscar race, I was a bit startled at how easy Mark Boal’s script for “The Hurt Locker” slid into the Best Original Screenplay slot.  Looking over the landscape of contenders in the category, it’s a little obvious why such a somewhat non-traditional entry would be pegged as a frontrunner: this is a pretty thin year for original screenplays.

    That should take nothing away from Boal’s work, which is certainly commendable.  But beyond Pixar’s “Up” (penned by Pete Docter and Bob Peterson) and the Coen brothers’ “A Serious Man” (my pick for best-in-show in the category), there isn’t much competition for Boal’s play at the statuette.  I even find myself struggling with two more solid bets for nods after that trio.

    Fox Searchlight, however, is making some pretty strong moves on behalf of “(500) Days of Summer,” written by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber.  The pair has already been cited by the Hollywood Film Festival as well as the Hamilton Behind the Camera awards.  Given the studio’s campaign prowess (and the undying spirit of the film’s champions), it makes sense to expect a spot to be reserved for the film here.

    To fill out the set, you’ve got a slot that is undeniably up for grabs.  So let’s dig into the field and see what we come up with.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Looking at the supporting gentlemen

    Paul Schneider in Bright StarIn recent weeks we’ve been covering the performance categories in this space.  With little else of tangible interest, what else can we possibly discuss?  It’s as good a time as any to take note of what we have on our hands.  Be sure to check out our looks at Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress if you missed them.

    (Speaking of which, with the rise of “Crazy Heart” in this year’s race, it goes without saying Jeff Bridges and Maggie Gyllenhaal should be added to their respective fields as they are very much in this year’s race.)

    At first glance, the Best Supporting Actor category looks fairly established this season.  There have been, after all, a number of contenders already and plenty more to come.  But none have really stood out from the pack yet, making this race actually as up for grabs as any other.

    Possibly the most agreed-upon contender in the field has to be Christoph Waltz, who took acting honors in Cannes for his villainous portrayal in Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds.” Waltz has made for quite the story off-screen as well, given his latter-career lift-off.  And even detractors of the film (yours truly included) have to consider his performance a highlight of the year so far.

    If anyone gives considerable chase here it’s going to be Christopher Plummer, smartly shifted to a supporting focus for his performance as Leo Tolstoy in “The Last Station.” Plummer will have sentiment (never been nominated) and added visibility (also appearing in “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”) on his side.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Looking at the leading gentlemen

    Colin Firth in A Single ManWe’ve taken concentrated looks at the lead actress and supporting actress categories in recent weeks.  Now let’s turn our attention over to the fellas.

    Behind the Best Picture race, of course, the lead actor competition is perhaps the most hotly anticipated award of a given Oscar telecast.  Movie stars are born, Hollywood staples are rewarded and careers leap to the next level.  It makes for an intriguing annual state of the union as it pertains the the film industry’s talent roster.

    This year, one of Hollywood’s brightest stars finds himself right at the front of the conversation.  George Clooney is likely to end up with his third acting Oscar nomination, for Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air,” and he’ll owe much of that to Reitman’s powerful work on the page.

    Clooney doesn’t give his best performance to date in the film.  But the material is so cleverly built around his persona that one can’t blame the actor for saddling up to a role that fits like a glove.  And there is something to be said for the bravery of taking one’s image on like that.

    Colin Firth, meanwhile, has caused a critical stir with his leading performance in Tom Ford’s “A Single Man.” He has already won the Venice Film Festival’s acting honor and has been tapped for another at February’s Santa Barbara Film Festival.  He is pitch-perfect in the film, giving a refined performance of nuance and gesture.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Looking at the supporting ladies

    Vera Farmiga in Up in the AirA few weeks ago in this space I took a dedicated look at the lead actress category.  With little in the way of actual development (this season is curiously divided on the timeline as we’ve got maybe another month before more major titles begin screening), I figured it would be a good idea to keep things going on that front and take a look at the supporting actress race.

    It’s a little difficult to ignore the fact that Mo’Nique stands way out ahead of the pack in this race for her work in “Precious.” Unless her reported behind-the-scenes drama-queen tactics somehow poison the cause, she should be holding a statue in four months’ time.  She is fierce and focused in a monstrous role and when viewers get over the initial “she had this in her?” shock, they’ll also see it for the expert piece of acting that it is.

    Mo’Nique is joined in her film, however, by what I’d call an awards-worthy turn from Mariah Carey.  The singer-turned-actress has been lurking in Mo’Nique’s shadow throughout the film’s publicity and festival tour this year, and she also lost something of a diva battle with Mary J. Blige to have a featured track in the film.  The poor girl can’t catch a break here, but I think she deserves a look from voters and, perhaps, even prognosticators.

    A few weeks ago I mentioned in an episode of Oscar Talk that “Up in the Air” star Vera Farmiga would be pushed as a lead actress.  Some things have changed.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Looking at the leading ladies

    Helen Mirren in The Last StationNow is the time when everyone begins assessing the race at its beginnings, and the gist I’m getting is that no one really knows what to write about.  Stabs at analysis end up being responses to other takes or rehashed arguments, and nothing really insightful is being brought to the table.

    And let’s face it.  As we dip into what looks to be the longest early-season lull in some time, there really is nothing insightful to offer.  So let’s just spit-ball…

    I think the Sony Classics acquisition of “The Last Station” is more significant than most seem to be aware right now.  There are only a handful who have seen it (Telluride being the film’s only festival stop so far), so that’s understandable.  And the film isn’t a knock-out, one that will be damned as merely efficient in some circles.  But with Helen Mirren in the lead actress race, it’s worth noting that suddenly that category is further framed as the old guard versus the new.

    And I may be wrong in my conviction, but I have to say it again: Mirren is VERY much in this race.  As the fiery Countess wife of a literary titan, she brings equal parts passion and delicacy to a complicated, certainly flawed character.  She’s afforded a number of moments that give her room to chew the scenery, and if Christopher Plummer happens to ride a wave of sentiment to a nomination as well, part of me feels that he will owe something to Mirren’s coattails.

    My predictions for the leading ladies this week are Mirren, Meryl Streep, Carey Mulligan, Gabourey Sidibe and, my weak link, Marion Cotillard (who is expected to be a lead actress push for “Nine,” but things could change).  In that collective we have three former winners, two legends of the form, two newbies and one performer shifting into the second gear of her career.  I think that’s a pretty good balance.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Underdog season

    Hal Holbrook in That Evening SunIt suddenly occurred to me when I got a screening invite last week to “That Evening Sun,” a potential awards prospect for lead actor Hal Holbrook, that the film actually had a distributor: Freestyle Releasing.

    Freestyle is a boutique company that doesn’t have a lot on deck, but it reminded me of how spread out this year’s product seems to be across the spectrum of Hollywood distribution, and one more indication of 2009 as perhaps the year of the underdog.

    It’s a generalization, sure, but when heading into the season the frontrunners of the race are a modest character-driven dramedy and an impassioned work of indie art, I think it’s safe to say the trains that could are drawing a line in the sand.

    I recognize the former is a studio-funded piece with one of the industry’s biggest stars in a leading role, but it fits because, like the director’s last film, it was a discovery even to the studio, one that can suddenly be groomed for awards.

    This idea of eschewing the titans of an awards season could be stretching into the business of things as companies like Overture Films, Summit Entertainment, Apparition, Paladin, Monterey Media, Freestyle, etc. are beginning to claim significant portions of the consideration pie…at least in this calm before the storm.

    Others have been here for years, of course.  IFC Films always makes its play.  Magnolia Pictures tends to be in the conversation.  Oscilloscope came pretty close with a great coming out last year (and will no doubt be in the thick of it again).

    The dependents that haven’t been swallowed by their parent companies have made their hay in the awards season, from Focus to Sony Classics to Searchlight, but I remain very enthusiastic, and perhaps overly optimistic, that in an economy such as this, the competitive market has opened up a number of options.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Suiting up

    George Clooney in Up in the AirYou might have noticed this morning’s round-up reverted back to “Oscarweb.”  The big late-summer festival trilogy wrapped up with Toronto’s kudo-dishing over the weekend and on the other side, we face the long haul.  The season is officially here.  You ready?

    As punishing as it feels, I’m still excited for our weekly coverage.  Punishing because monthly diagnosis is so liberating, but we’re at that stage where the nuances of the season are worth tracking closely, the layers of the race peeled back slowly but surely.  Today’s Off the Carpet column kicks all of that off for us at In Contention.

    Tomorrow we’ll have a list dedicated to the best of the Academy’s chosen.  Wednesday, Guy will launch “The Long Shot,” a new weekly awards column that will consider things from afar without the dizzying insider silliness you find in this space every Monday, and I’m really excited for that.  Gerard comes back Thursday for another series of Tech Support columns, and, of course, Anne and I will continue the conversation Friday in our weekly Oscar Talk podcast.  I think we’re covering all bases.

    So, as we go into the season, what do we know?  And do we think we know more than we actually do?  Probably.

    “Up in the Air,” for instance, was the story of September if only because any goodwill toward “Precious” was already a known commodity.  Jason Reitman’s “Juno” follow-up comes along at just the right time for the country, taps into actor George Clooney’s movie star quality to find other insights and pretty much nails a tone, a vibe, an overall sense of things.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Take a deep breath…

    George Clooney in Up in the AirThe calm before the storm is beginning to subside.  Can you sense it?

    By the end of the week, the Venice and Telluride fests will be underway.  A week later, Toronto will weigh in.  When the smoke settles in roughly three weeks, the season will suddenly be a lot clearer…and yet so much of it will remain a mystery as latter year hopefuls limp (or stomp) into the fray in November and December.

    Yes, the season is upon us.  And while studios continue to think over the true value of Oscar notices, especially in a widened playing field, business marches on as usual.  Venice will tell the tale for efforts like “The Men Who Stare at Goats,” “The Informant!,” and “Capitalism: A Love Story,” while Telluride could make or break the hopes of films such as “The Road” and “Up in the Air.”

    Some overlap will go down in Toronto, but the most anticipated first-look there will likely be the Coen brothers’ “A Serious Man.”  Meanwhile, distributors might be looking to beef up their schedules with films like “Creation” and “Leaves of Grass” looking for buyers.  But for those with ponies primed and ready, these festivals are very much the starting gun for awards runs, as ever.

    So before the madness ensues, we get one more stab in the dark.  But given the perceived road ahead, it seems to me that films with a healthy pre-season awards profile going into the fall are in pretty good shape as it is.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Whittling further as convention flees

    Max Records in Where the Wild Things AreAnother month, another step closer to the awards season.  As the summer winds down and the industry slowly begins to square itself with the off-season’s bombshell Oscar news, the picture becomes a little clearer.  Kind of.

    Universal Pictures, in a move speculated upon endlessly by now, shuffled two of its contenders — Paul Greengrass’s “Green Zone” and Joe Johnston’s “The Wolf Man” — off to 2010.  As Anne Thompson shrewdly noted in a recent item, the decision likely has everything to do with a numbers game.  The studio has experienced a rocky two quarters this year and things aren’t necessarily looking up.  Some think, in the case of “The Wolf Man,” the shift was made to avoid another box office misfire in 2009 (as by now, with push after push, the film is beginning to smell fishy).  Others say the “Green Zone” shift had a lot to do with “The Hurt Locker”‘s release pattern.

    Whatever the case, the evacuations change the Oscar landscape ever so slightly, giving us just a few more talking points in the vacuum of August before we have anything of value worth discussing when the fall festival season hits in less than a month’s time.

    Universal is now left with two critically divisive, commercially dubious titles in Michael Mann’s “Public Enemies” and Judd Apatow’s “Funny People” to hawk for awards consideration, effectively (if you’re asking me, though I realize no one is) taking the studio out of the game this year — or, at the very least, making the hill steeper.

    But taking note of the studio awards landscape, it doesn’t seem to me that anyone else is on surer ground.  As I look out at the many contenders and the campaigns being prepared for them, it appears the entire industry will be dealing with unconventional approaches and product to go along with the new changes in the Best Picture category (and all the headache that comes with them) this season.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: The more the merrier?

    OscarsThe Academy dropped a bombshell announcement mid-week, leaving a mixture of cheers and jeers as well as a number of questions that will be answered slowly but surely as a new Oscar season approaches.

    The chief complaint from those who took umbrage with the decision to open the Best Picture category to 10 nominations is the further dilution of prestige.  What is a nomination worth if it is shared with dubious contenders that wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in a traditional field of five?

    Others felt the change instantly relegated the medium’s most cherished prize to yet another top 10 list, hardly distinguished in the increasingly dense fray that is the film awards season.

    Those who championed the bold move found comfort in the idea, however hypothetical, that the category could now find room for under-appreciated gems from the indie circuit, or better yet, avoid the unfortunate case of AMPAS members ignoring the intersection of art and commerce (i.e. the Best Picture snubs of “The Dark Knight” and “WALL-E”).

    The “bubble” virtually eliminated, Oscar’s sandbox just got a lot bigger, so what’s the harm in allowing as many kids to play as possible?

    I tend to fall in the former category.  The move is troublesome in that it has a whiff of thoughtlessness, a knee-jerk, reactionary decision and perhaps merely a chance to create a larger advertising opportunity for the organization’s telecast.  And I ask this: What will Pixar’s first Best Picture nomination really mean with an asterisk next to it?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Taking the temperature

    Jeremy Renner in The Hurt LockerIt’s somewhat surprising that our year-in-advance Oscar coverage is only three months old.  That now ancient list of predictions seems so long ago, and yet, even with Cannes behind us and this or that indication of a few of the contenders, I have no idea how to offer an educated update beyond general housekeeping.  The season, it seems, will remain elusive for just a little while longer.

    Here’s what we know: Critics didn’t respond to Universal’s “The Boat That Rocked” across the pond.  But the Brits hardly have a soft spot for Richard Curtis.  Along similar lines, Stephen Frears’s “Chéri” hasn’t exactly inspired either.  But both films, from awards savvy studios, could find a second wind when they eventually open Stateside.

    The biggest Oscar hopeful to emerge from this year’s Cannes fest is, in my opinion, Jane Campion’s “Bright Star.”  Heralded in some quarters as a return to form for the director, and snatched up by the intrepid Bob Berney (formerly of Picturehouse and now closing in on a name for his distribution company with partner Bill Polhad), the film could be a nominations hog, anywhere from six to 10 possibilities.  You’ll note all of my ponderings in that regard in the latest chart update below.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2009 a year in advance!?

    Ewan McGregor and Hilary Swank in AmeliaAhh.  The dust is settling.  And on the horizon, just visible through the mist and waiting to drive us all up the wall once again: the 2009 Oscar season.

    I’ve been writing this year-in-advance column for probably six years now, and I always look forward to gazing ahead.  No one dives in so pathetically deep this far out as yours truly, but in exchange for not having a life for the past few months, I get to unload this burden the day after our annual season’s peak and forget about little gold men entirely for a few months.

    It’s quite liberating.

    The most interesting thing about the season to come, from my vantage point, is the lack of a dreaded “frontrunner status” for any of the contenders.  Some might say Clint Eastwood’s Nelson Mandela project (which is not called “The Human Factor,” mind you — the director says the film is currently untitled and is based on John Carlin’s book “Playing the Enemy”).

    Others might say Rob Marshall’s “Nine” (coming from a money-tight company hoping to avoid echoes of “Memoirs of a Geisha”).  But I don’t see a “Geisha” from here, or a “Charlie Wilson’s War,” expected heavies waiting to miss the mark.  The field is curiously flat, and as a result, excitingly broad.

    Let’s get to it, shall we?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Taking a final stab

    OscarsWell, this is what it all boils down to.  I almost DON’T want to go on the record, but I kind of have to, right?

    Anyway, this is the first year I’ve actually seen every single nominated frame of film before the big night so these will either be the most educated guesses I’ve ever given or the most unfortunately influenced, one can’t be too sure.  Sometimes it’s better to predict in a void, other times not.  I did pretty good last year (after a wicked slump for a few years), largely because I succumbed to inevitability more than I have in the past, but I don’t want to be all douchey and put forth my record.  We all have ups and downs.  I’m not personally convinced of probably half of these predictions, so you certainly shouldn’t be either.

    One thing that catches my eye as I go through my “will wins,” “could wins” and “should wins” is that in many cases, I’m predicting the contender that I also feel delivers the best work in the category.  But really, only in one arena could that stink of hopeful expectation (Best Actor).  The rest is just reflective of how this weak, thin season trickled down.  I almost always have a different preference than what actually wins, so I wouldn’t call me the wishful thinking sort when it comes to hammering these out.

    Anyway, you’ll find category-by-category analysis throughout, but I have to say, those sound categories are fuckers this year.  Pardon the vulgarity.  It seems there are limitless possibilities.  I’m of the mind that one film takes both, so take your pick: “Dark Knight,” “Slumdog” or “WALL-E.”  I think the Academy at large doesn’t understand the subtlety of “WALL-E” (much like “No Country for Old Men” last year) and giving “Slumdog” a clean sweep seems to be too much.  But I’ll get into those categories, and more, after the jump.

    There is a slight possibility I’ll stick my head back in here to adjust this prediction or that before Sunday.  If I do, I’ll be sure to draw your attention to it in this space.  Check back later today with a look at all out contributors’ predictions.  For now, here are mine…

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Come together, right now

    Dev Patel in Slumdog MillionaireAnyone ready for it to all be over?

    For me, it hasn’t been a painful Oscar season, despite what I may have let on throughout the last five months. After all, my favorite film is and has been primed for the big win since November (well, since we said it was in November…everyone soon followed suit). And for that, I can’t be agitated, can I?

    Obviously I can’t speak for the troops over on Melrose. “Slumdog Millionaire” has to be the worst thing to happen to a lot of those hard-working folks. Blood must be boiling.

    And who can blame them?  It really just sucks when the perfect storm conspires against you. Old timey Hollywood mixed with state of the art digital artistry just hasn’t been enough for industry filmgoers this season. The economy, the new president, the zeitgeist, it was all too much. Fox Searchlight finally moved out of its perennial role as underdog and became the schoolyard bully.

    Of course, it would be nothing more than an upset if “Slumdog” failed to take the prize at this point. And really, besides a scattered few, who’s predicting that with any confidence?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Welcome to phase two

    Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThe nominations and all their ghastly reality are behind us.  The first two major guilds have spoken.  “Slumdog Millionaire” continues a long, slow (too slow for Searchlight) march toward Oscar, and ironically enough, the only film to win two awards at last night’s SAG ceremony was the one a lot of people were pissed got the shaft on Thursday.

    Such is the season.

    Phase two is a different game altogether.  Everyone has renewed life.  “Frost/Nixon” and “The Reader” are going to be happy to be there, while Focus and Paramount really think “Slumdog”‘s perch isn’t as water-tight as it could be.  Then again, that SAG ensemble victory had to burst one or two of thsoe balloons keeping their spirits afloat.

    The races of interest to me are lead actor, where a truly deserving Mickey Rourke goes toe-to-toe with an inarguable Sean Penn (maybe a fight to both their deaths as Frank Langella tip-toes past them and nabs the big prize?) and Best Supporting Actress, suddenly there for the taking as Kate Winslet has vacated the field in favor of dashing the hopes of the leading ladies who were all set to duke it out.

    Could Penelope Cruz (so dashing and sweet here in Santa Barbara last night) suddenly be the favorite once more?  Or is this just the moment Viola Davis has been waiting for?  Better yet, could Taraji P. Henson, probably the biggest charmer of the bunch, switch ont he after-burners and leave everyone in the dust?

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