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A few weeks ago in this space I took a dedicated look at the lead actress category. With little in the way of actual development (this season is curiously divided on the timeline as we’ve got maybe another month before more major titles begin screening), I figured it would be a good idea to keep things going on that front and take a look at the supporting actress race.
It’s a little difficult to ignore the fact that Mo’Nique stands way out ahead of the pack in this race for her work in “Precious.” Unless her reported behind-the-scenes drama-queen tactics somehow poison the cause, she should be holding a statue in four months’ time. She is fierce and focused in a monstrous role and when viewers get over the initial “she had this in her?” shock, they’ll also see it for the expert piece of acting that it is.
Mo’Nique is joined in her film, however, by what I’d call an awards-worthy turn from Mariah Carey. The singer-turned-actress has been lurking in Mo’Nique’s shadow throughout the film’s publicity and festival tour this year, and she also lost something of a diva battle with Mary J. Blige to have a featured track in the film. The poor girl can’t catch a break here, but I think she deserves a look from voters and, perhaps, even prognosticators.
A few weeks ago I mentioned in an episode of Oscar Talk that “Up in the Air” star Vera Farmiga would be pushed as a lead actress. Some things have changed.
When Jason Reitman’s film first screened in Telluride, and later at Toronto, the early buzz was, of course, exceptional. But many seemed to be torn on the female performances surrounding lead actor George Clooney.
For instance, I thought Farmiga offered the more interesting, detailed work, but I felt Anna Kendrick was definitely the best bet for a supporting actress nomination. She has spunk and pops on the screen in a way that stands out above the relatively more restrained Farmiga.
Paramount attempted to shift gears on Farmiga’s push because a number of critics have responded more to Farmiga and Clooney in tandem than they have Clooney as a stand-alone lead. (That’s considerably different than my take, one of the two supporting ladies offering a reflection of the lead character’s choices and thereby offering more insight into Clooney’s role.) Some have even drawn comparisons to classic on-screen pairs like Cary Grant and Rosalind Russell or Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall.
However, Farmiga’s personal representation wasn’t having it, perhaps noting the up-hill climb that a lead nod would have been. I’m sure the studio would have liked to cast that wide net and have a shot in three acting categories, but as it is, Farmiga and Kendrick will be going head-to-head in supporting. I’m banking on the latter, but Farmiga’s chemistry with Clooney is unmistakable. Maybe both can slide in, because this field isn’t as deep as it could be.
Julianne Moore has limited screen time in “A Single Man,” but she makes the most of it (as of course she would), particularly coming to life in an extended scene with Colin Firth that plays like a master class in acting off of your co-star. And truthfully, I don’t think Moore has so fully immersed herself in a character since “Far From Heaven.”
As reported here a number of weeks ago, Marion Cotillard will be pushed as a lead in Rob Marshall’s “Nine,” but the actress has a shot at the supporting field if Universal wants to drum up a big campaign for “Public Enemies.” Her work quickly became one of the most agreeable aspects even among detractors of the film. But her “Nine” co-stars will be all over this category, making for some healthy competition.
I’m told the stand-out supporting turns come from Judi Dench and, most especially, Penelope Cruz. Maybe there will be some lingering support for Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson, Sophia Loren, etc., but these are the two ladies you should be keeping an eye on. And two supporting actresses for one film is certainly not uncommon.
That’s what I’d call the top tier of this category, but there are a number of other performances with their own champions, like Mélanie Laurent in “Inglourious Basterds,” the film’s truest hero (make that heroine). Of course, I remain skeptical of the film’s chances in the major categories, so I’m not buying here, but she has her fans.
Samantha Morton doesn’t offer the best performance of “The Messenger” (I’d give that designation to Woody Harrelson), but she nails the troubled widow template and lifts the potentially trite role off the page in an authentic, emotional way. It’ll be difficult for Oscilloscope to compete with the big dogs, but it’s a fringe possibility to watch out for.
One performance that could leap into contention real fast is Susan Sarandon in “The Lovely Bones,” a performance that I’m told is more robust now, additional scenes and footage having been added after early screenings left viewers wanting more of her. She will be competing with co-star Rachel Weisz for a look in this field, but it appears Sarandon might have the upper hand.
There are straggler vote-siphoners lurking, like Charlize Theron in “The Road,” for instance, or Sari Lennick in “A Serious Man.” Emma Thompson actually gives a wonderful under-the-radar performance in “An Education” that deserves some recognition (and might just get it in some quarters). Ditto Rosamund Pike, also quite good int he film. And perhaps there is some substance to Sigourney Weaver’s work in “Avatar,” perhaps not. We’ll have to wait and see. But there isn’t much else worth wading into here. The supporting actress field is remarkably streamlined and it’s not even November.
Anyway, those are my thoughts. The Contenders section has been tweaked. The sidebar predictions have been updated.
What do you think of the supporting actress race this year? Have your say int he comments section below.
(By the way, I received my first email of complaint regarding the discontinued charts feature here at the site, which was explained a few weeks back. If there are similar gripes, please let me know. I’m curious to hear everyone’s thoughts.)
53 responses so far
1 10-26-2009 at 9:48 am
Georgie said...
Even though we haven’t seen Nine yet, I definitely think Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, and Nicole Kidman are the only ones that have a chance of getting nods, based on the Broadway version (and I doubt that all three of them will)… I’m definitely cheering for Anna Kendrick to get a nod (she was wonderful in Rocket Science) and Susan Sarandon.
The only supporting performance I’ve seen that is really being talked about at all is Melanie Laurent, and I love her. And Marion Cotillard, of course, who was wonderful, but I think she’ll just get a lead nom for Nine. I hope. Her two songs (and she gets one more, right?) are great.
2 10-26-2009 at 9:52 am
Evan said...
Thanks for this comprehensive overview Kris. I follow a bunch of Oscar sites, but you’re the best at ferreting out category confusions and clarifying supporting/leading campaigns.
3 10-26-2009 at 9:52 am
Derek said...
Again, having seen Nine, the standout supporting performance comes from Marion Cotillard. But with a lead push, nothing will come from that. I can tell you that Judi Dench does nothing spectacular, although that hasn’t prevented her from getting a nomination or two in the past, but certainly up against the likes of Penelope Cruz’s much more showy role, Dench certainly couldn’t be called a standout. Forget Sophia Loren completely; it’s a glorified cameo and very passive.
4 10-26-2009 at 9:55 am
Nicolas Mancuso said...
Kris, I think Mélanie Laurent is well worth mentioning for “Inglourious Basterds”. I know well how you feel about the film, but her performance really moved me.
I disagree with you about the film, and I can see it easily ending up in my top 5 of the year. And I’m not expecting it to be nominated for Best Picture. That said, however, if voters rally behind it, (as another commenter recently stated) it could take off in a major way, and Laurent could easily find herself with a nomination. After all, it’s a role that offers a very emotionally satisfying arc. Shoshana Dreyfus is a woman people can really root for. And I suspect it may happen that people really will.
5 10-26-2009 at 10:06 am
M.Harris said...
Great info Kris.Thanks for helping to decipher who’s in and out of the pre-Oscar race.I followed the site last year,and for the most part your prediction chart was on the mark.
6 10-26-2009 at 10:19 am
Loyal said...
my current 5 are
Penelope Cruz
Judi Dench
Anna Kendrick
Mo’Nique
Julianne Moore
I feel pretty good about those picks.
7 10-26-2009 at 10:28 am
slayton said...
Please consider Rose McIver and Carolyn Dando for The Lovely Bones. The former has the meatiest supporting role in the book, as Lindsey, the deceased girl’s sister who takes it upon herself to find the killer and bring him to justice, and the latter has, imo, the book’s most interesting role as Ruth, the deceased girl’s lesbian friend who finds her look on life changed after her friend’s death. Her role is pivotal and she plays a very major role in the novel’s climactic moments.
These two actresses are newcomers, but if they live up to these great roles I could see both of them nominated.
Judging from the book Weisz has a co-lead role. Although it is easy to imagine all five of the book’s principal female roles being pushed in supporting.
I think the wisest strategy would be to have Ronan and Weisz compete in lead, and have McIver, Dando and Sarandon compete in supporting.
Sarandon’s role may have been fleshed out from what it was on the page (in the book the role is small and very one-note, and if the film were a direct adaptation I would not bet on her getting nominated). But I think it is shortsighted to only consider the “name actress” out of this film’s supporting crop.
Considering how popular the book was, I’m quite surprised that people aren’t predicting McIver and Dando over Sarandon.
Also, here’s hoping Rosamund Pike can get some awards support. She just got a BIFA nomination which is a step in the right direction.
8 10-26-2009 at 10:30 am
slayton said...
For the record, I’m predicting Cruz/Dench/Kendrick/Mo’Nique/Moore, but I’m hoping the final lineup won’t be as boring as that.
To be honest, I have this sick desire to see Nine crash and burn, if only to open this race up for some more interesting contenders – Laurent, Pike, McIver/Dando, Farmiga, Cotillard (in Public Enemies), etc etc.
9 10-26-2009 at 10:37 am
head_wizard said...
I’m thinking Up in the Air as the second place best picture front runner will help the two ladies form that film get in. And I agree that Moore will get in as well. Mo’nique is winning it and the last nominee I’m guessing one of the Nine ladies. but could be some surprise.
10 10-26-2009 at 10:39 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
I think “judging from the book” needs to exit the discussion when it comes to “The Lovely Bones.”
Guy and others have expressed doubts over a passive character like Ronan’s making much of a fuss in the lead actress race, for instance, but the studio is serious about it and certainly wouldn’t be if it the performance had turned out as removed as many were expecting.
And slayton, call it short-sighted if you like, but there are serious campaign plans for Sarandon and none for the actresses you mention. (Weisz is also definitely going to be campaigned, supporting, FYI.) Perhaps you simply read more into the roles in the book than was ultimately played out on screen?
In any case, good call on Rosamund Pike. I thought she was wonderful in “An Education” and perhaps she deserved a mention in this piece.
11 10-26-2009 at 10:40 am
The Other James D. said...
Aw Loyal, you have something brown on your honker.
Jaykay.
I’m with Derek, not feeling the Dench nom quite as much. Obviously, they love her–I’m sure she gets a few juicy lines to spout out….But based on all the early word, I feel like Cotillard and Cruz will siphon all of the attention. I am feeling Cotillard for lead over Ronan, just for the record. I know based on your prediction alterations that you’re swaying back and forth there.
As for Farmiga/Kendrick, I do feel that both could likely get nominated. Kendrick is such a newbie breakthrough, that it causes me to instantly compare this to Brolin/Franco. I can honestly see Farmiga having the better shot at a nom. Despite her performance being more restrained, I think voters might connect more with it and it’s the magic of the on-screen chemistry that is such an asset to the film, it seems. Plus, she’s been on the rise for years now and earning respect among her peers, so this could just be “her time”, don’t you think? Again, seeing as how it’s a weak year, I can see them both in over Dench.
My predix:
01) Mo’Nique
02) Penélope Cruz
03) Julianne Moore
04) Vera Farmiga
05) Anna Kendrick
—-
06) Susan Sarandon
07) Judi Dench
08) Rosamund Pike
09) Rachel Weisz
10) Mélanie Laurent
Now that I look at this though, Sarandon could just as easily take Kendrick’s spot. But I’m iffy about the film, and have a gut saying it *could* be the Rev. Road-type awards disappointment of the year. We’ll see.
Last comment, Kris: No mention of Rosamund Pike, whatsoever? Thought she at least was worth noting for her wonderful turn =).
12 10-26-2009 at 10:44 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Just mentioned her.
13 10-26-2009 at 10:52 am
Loyal said...
@ The Other James
I only agree with Kristopher about 14% of the time. I’m sure he’ll eventually move both Up in the Air actresses into his 5 and I’ll probably stick with my pair from Nine.
Is virtual brownnosing even possible?
14 10-26-2009 at 10:53 am
The Other James D. said...
Yes, my wonderful luck with timing strikes again, w/ my post 1-minute late.
15 10-26-2009 at 10:54 am
Jim Τ said...
I would love to see Dench get another nomination but I have a feeling she won’t. I think they have nominated so many times recently that they will need something very impressive to put her in the top5 again.
I hope Sarandon will get the nomination. She is one of the greatest living American actresses and she deserves a comeback in the race.
16 10-26-2009 at 10:57 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Loyal: Don’t be so sure.
17 10-26-2009 at 10:57 am
The Other James D. said...
@Loyal: Oh, most definitely. In the same sense cyberseduction is possible, in fact. Never underestimate the powers of the web.
But yeah, hence the “jaykay” part. I’ve noticed a lot of commenters are predicting the same thing here, actually, which I’m semi-surprised at–although a couple seem to doubt their own predix.
18 10-26-2009 at 11:01 am
Marshall said...
I just wrote about this yesterday, specifically involving the actresses of “Nine.”
http://marshallandthemovies.com/2009/10/25/nine/
Kate Hudson and Fergie have only bit parts, not that the latter was being mentioned, but they should be virtually eliminated from discussion.
Marshall
19 10-26-2009 at 11:05 am
Loyal said...
@ James
tell me more about this cyberseduction. I suddenly find you very intriguing.
20 10-26-2009 at 11:12 am
The Other James D. said...
@ Loyal: See, it’s working already ;).
21 10-26-2009 at 11:24 am
James The Greatest said...
As for the discontinued charts feature… they aren’t missed, especially because it seems we’re getting more frequent updates on the Prediction Bar to the right, and us devoted readers get enough information in these Off The Carpet pieces.
One random suggestion, though, would be to somehow denote (perhaps via color or an asterisk) when something has been added/re-added to the predictions. I always find myself trying to remember “What has changed since the last update?”
Completely off topic here… but with the music branch’s new rules, do we actually see five songs being nominated (as the predictions currently reflect)? At most I’d expect four nominees this year.
Secondly… do we imagine there being any “This Is It” support in the Doc Feature category? I can’t recall any concert docs being in the mix previously, but this is likely going to be a monster at the box office.
22 10-26-2009 at 11:28 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
RE: Songs, probably not, just sticking with five for now.
This Is It missed the deadline to be eligible for documentary feature this year, as it turns out.
23 10-26-2009 at 11:32 am
mark said...
Sarandon is the 1 performance I am msot excited abut,I wanted so much for her to be nominated in 2007 for in the valley of elah,I hope this is her path back to the Oscars.
24 10-26-2009 at 11:53 am
JAB said...
i feel like it just seems like there’s less to look at because the performances that will fall into this category are so concentrated into a few films. There are four films that could feasibly get double recognition in this category (Nine, Up In the Air, Precious, The Lovely Bones), and if Nine is as fabulous as it looks and they decide to go ape-shit that might even triple dip. Also, chances are something outside of those 4 films will break in, it’ll probably be Julianne Moore, which is great by me…but i would LOVE to see Melanie Laurent get the recognition she deserves. Waltz might have had the meatiest role in the film, but she was what kept the film moving and looked damn good doing it.
right now I’ll say…
Susan Surandon, Lovely Bones
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Mo’nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
and
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds (if the film gets as much love as it deserves from the academy)
or
Anna Kendrick, Up In the Air (if not)
other thoughts:
glad you finally got rid of everything Amelia,
but i really don’t see Where the Wild Things Are getting zilch, i feel like it’s spots in the cinematography and score lineups are pretty secure at the very least.
25 10-26-2009 at 12:02 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Nothing is secure for Wild Things.
26 10-26-2009 at 12:24 pm
JAB said...
lol, that sounds like a line from an episode of Lost
in a totally good and funny way, like say it to yourself dramatically and you’ll giggle a little bit, i guarantee it.
27 10-26-2009 at 12:27 pm
slayton said...
I do hate to be a “but it’s like THIS in the book” kind of person, but Rose McIver’s character really is the central character of the novel. She figures prominently in the scenes featured in the trailer, too.
I’d say that the lack of campaigning for McIver & Dando is solely due to their unknown status, and I kind of expect both of them to be singled out in reviews.
Have you seen the film, Kris? From the tone of your comment it sounded like you had.
28 10-26-2009 at 12:30 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
No, didn’t mean to give that impression. But I talk daily with those who have…
29 10-26-2009 at 1:09 pm
Mike said...
Penelope is on fire the last couple of years, isn’t she?!?
30 10-26-2009 at 1:14 pm
Dave V said...
Someone mentioned the documentary feature category above, so I guess I’ll ask it here: Does anyone know when the shortlist for this category is going to be announced? I seem to remember it was somewhere around this time last year, but have no real idea of when it was.
31 10-26-2009 at 1:19 pm
m1 said...
I HOPE Farmiga and Kendrick get nominated for Up in the Air.
32 10-26-2009 at 1:20 pm
kmoore8435 said...
I have yet to see 90% of these films, so I will have to reserve my opinion until later. I will say that I really love Julianne Moore and she has been robbed more than once.
33 10-26-2009 at 2:42 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Didn’t really see anything award-caliber about Carey in “Precious.” Respectable work, certainly, but there’s nothing in that character to hold onto. Even from the film’s cast, Paula Patton is more deserving of consideration. (Not that I would.)
34 10-26-2009 at 3:20 pm
Simon Warrasch said...
My predix:
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man
Penelope Cruz – Nine
Marion Cotillard – Public Enemies
Anna Kendrik – Up in the Air
Other very strong Contenders:
Judi Dench
Susan Sarandon
Rachel Weisz
Melanie Laurent
Vera Fermiga (Supporting / Lead) ?
Saoirse Ronan (Supporting / Lead) ?
Meryl Streep (Supporting / Lead) ?
35 10-26-2009 at 3:24 pm
Simon Warrasch said...
And now i have a feeling that next year in this category it will be a taugh race between Julianne Moore in “A Single Man” and Mo’Nique in “Precious”! I’m sure that one of this Actresses will win! Let’s see… but i’m definitely sure!
36 10-26-2009 at 3:33 pm
John said...
Wow, Kris. You talk to people who’ve seen ‘The Lovely Bones’???
Any early word – on any front?
37 10-26-2009 at 3:46 pm
Caleb Roth said...
I really hope Nine to crash and burn, too. The Oscars will be a lot better if Mélanie Laurent gets her deserved nomination (win?). Just wait: if IB gets award traction, she’ll be in the mix. Everyone who loved the movie loved her and Waltz above all things.
You can feel people loving and talking about her. I expect her to win every award Mo’nique misses.
38 10-26-2009 at 3:47 pm
James The Greatest said...
RE: “Nothing is secure for ‘Wild Things’.”
Not even a Costume nod? Those costumes were so integral and beautiful that I can’t imagine it being passed up there (by a voting bloc that tends to nominate films with less support elsewhere). I’d even argue that if nommed, it could actually win.
39 10-26-2009 at 4:24 pm
Zach said...
I miss the charts solely because I found it interesting to see how things have changed over the season. If some record was kept off past predictions, I’d be very happy.
40 10-26-2009 at 4:40 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Paula Patton was a bit empty I thought, Guy. I felt Carey really brought it and yeah, it’s not an emotional turn, but she nails the tough, at times grim facade necessary for that kind of a career.
41 10-26-2009 at 4:55 pm
Ivan said...
I think the biggest surprise in this category will be Betty White in THE PROPOSAL, you can already find “for your consideration” banners all over internet. It’s a shame that SPC won’t be pushing Patricia Clarkson in this category for WHATEVER WORKS,or Kathy Bates in CHERI.
42 10-26-2009 at 5:04 pm
James D. said...
Off topic, but did you see The Boys Are Back, Kris? I know it is out of awards chatter, but I don’t understand why the reviews were so bad. It was a bit formulaic, especially in the end, but Clive Owen was spectacular.
43 10-26-2009 at 5:11 pm
Pablo (Col) said...
For me:
1. Mo’Nique
2. Julianne Moore
3. Penelope Cruz
4. Anna Kendrick
5. Susan Sarandon
44 10-26-2009 at 6:36 pm
Matt said...
I know the constant minor ups and downs made the charts a bit of a hassle, but I still really liked them – if for no other reason than it showed the 5 contenders you thought were lurking just under the predicted 5.
45 10-26-2009 at 7:02 pm
Jester said...
I agree with Matt, I don’t care about the arrows, but it was nice to have the top five in predictions and then the next five, just to keep things simple. I use it as a guide to work out my budget for the award season, and the contenders section just doesn’t help in that case.
Also, the charts are fun for archive purposes.
46 10-26-2009 at 9:28 pm
Dan said...
Kris, why do you continue to keep The Lovely Bones out of Director? It seems like the kind of film that could easily get in if the film is good.
Does this have anything to do with what you are hearing from your sources? I, too, would be very interested to know what you are hearing about it.
47 10-26-2009 at 10:08 pm
AmericanRequiem said...
dan lets just let kris take his time before giving over his faith, and i wouldnt be suprised if the lovely bones got a lot of actor attention
48 10-26-2009 at 11:36 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Dan: Been toying with tossing Marshall for Jackson.
49 10-27-2009 at 2:17 am
jess said...
How about Sigourney Weaver in Avatar ? After all, she got nominated for Aliens, another sci-fi action movie.
50 10-27-2009 at 3:25 am
mike said...
Mariah would be great. From Glitter to OScar. at the same time, how hard can this acting thing be if 1st timers and former laughing stocks are winning Oscars.
what we need is movie stars and less “actors/actresses” cause as a non conneseur, a lot of these movies are overrated when i see them.
51 10-27-2009 at 9:51 am
Ben M. said...
I think both Up in the Air actresses could get, particularly if Nine underwhelms. Currently my predictions are
Mo’Nique (I think she is the strongest frontrunner in any major category right now)
Moore
Farmiga
Kendrick
Weaver (a bit of a dark horse, but since I have Nine being the presumed front-runner that falters upon release and feel Avatar has the potential to be groundbreaking why not?)
52 10-27-2009 at 9:04 pm
Ed of WEHO said...
Mariah Carey for Best Supporting Actress then. She did a good job!
Meryl Streep for Best Actress of course!
53 11-09-2009 at 9:05 pm
FrankieJ said...
As we found last year with Winslet…the category being pushed isn’t necessarily the one that the actor will be nominated in. That said and having seen NINE, the most deserving of a SUPPORTING actress nomination is Marion Cotillard!