The nominations and all their ghastly reality are behind us. The first two major guilds have spoken. “Slumdog Millionaire” continues a long, slow (too slow for Searchlight) march toward Oscar, and ironically enough, the only film to win two awards at last night’s SAG ceremony was the one a lot of people were pissed got the shaft on Thursday.
Such is the season.
Phase two is a different game altogether. Everyone has renewed life. “Frost/Nixon” and “The Reader” are going to be happy to be there, while Focus and Paramount really think “Slumdog”‘s perch isn’t as water-tight as it could be. Then again, that SAG ensemble victory had to burst one or two of thsoe balloons keeping their spirits afloat.
The races of interest to me are lead actor, where a truly deserving Mickey Rourke goes toe-to-toe with an inarguable Sean Penn (maybe a fight to both their deaths as Frank Langella tip-toes past them and nabs the big prize?) and Best Supporting Actress, suddenly there for the taking as Kate Winslet has vacated the field in favor of dashing the hopes of the leading ladies who were all set to duke it out.
Could Penelope Cruz (so dashing and sweet here in Santa Barbara last night) suddenly be the favorite once more? Or is this just the moment Viola Davis has been waiting for? Better yet, could Taraji P. Henson, probably the biggest charmer of the bunch, switch ont he after-burners and leave everyone in the dust?
Harvey Weinstein will be busy trying to extinguish that pesky film editing rule (that no film has won Best Pic without a nomination for editing since — anybody? — “Ordinary People” in 1980). Ironic, since the proliferation of that “rule” in the media stems from a former member of Weinstein’s publicity flock who works hand-in-hand with the producer who took his film off “The Reader” in the first place.
“The Dark Knight”‘s eight nominations could yield just a single win, Heath Ledger’s inevitable (damn well better be inevitable) victory for Best Supporting Actor, or perhaps two if the Academy responds to Wally Pfister’s photography.
I’m hopping off the sound bandwagon in favor of “WALL-E”‘s chances as of late, but with one or both, the tally could be three or four for the Bat, approaching the eventual tally the night’s biggest winners, “Slumdog” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” will pull in.
And what will that say?
“The Reader,” for all it’s “passion” to make it into contention (since no one wants to think the nominations were clearly a vote AGAINST “The Dark Knight” more so than a vote FOR whichever film came in #5), is likely to walk away with a single win. And is it even arguable that said win will result more from the always-a-bridesmaid nature of the contender than the actual role and/or performance?
“Frost/Nixon,” unless Frank Langella can stun in the lead actor field (certainly possible), will take nothing. My guess is “WALL-E” takes Best Original Screenplay, leaving Sean Penn as the “Milk”‘s only hope for a victory. But if Rourke shines, that could leave the film with nothing.
Funny how that works out, no? And speaking of “WALL-E,” the same thing applies. I see anywhere from three to five wins coming, maybe even a clean sweep if the membership gets froggy and goes for Thomas Newman’s score (giving him his first Oscar ever).
But keep on telling yourself the rest of the Best Picture field was really the source of the membership’s “passion.”
The race is all but over in the minds of most of us, though. Bring on 2009. Let’s see Michael Mann digging into the 1930s, together with Dante Spinotti once again. Let’s see what Peter Jackson has to offer in the smaller, more intimate realm 15 years after “Heavenly Creatures.” Show us you’ve still got it Marty. Wow us once again, Mr. Cameron. And prove me right, Mr. Greengrass, that you’re the most compelling filmmaker of your generation.
Let’s get on with it.
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35 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Welcome to phase two”
“O Saya†from “Boltâ€
A.R. Rahman; Maya Arulpragasam (M.I.A.)
That made me laugh a little tiny bit, I dont know why
Haha. Thanks. Will adjust.
What, you don’t remember the M.I.A. jam in “Bolt?”
Wait… you mean M.I.A. isn’t Miley Cyrus’ performing alter ego?
I could’ve sworn she was.
M.I.A. MileyCyrus Is Arulpragasam
Kris, I know you love Bolt, but what really annoys me from it (Aside the Waltz with Bashir snub in Animated Feature) is that is a very very hypocrit movie. I mean, the message is about kids in movies and how they manipulate them and stuff… And who gives the voice to the little girl? Miley Cyrus!!!
A valid point, Ziyad. But I can’t fault Disney for wanting to sell tickets.
Aside from that, I really liked the movie. But I didn’t recover yet from being the #2 of the year in your list!
Speaking of Heavenly Creatures, The Simpsons episode last night was a clear take off on it. Not really an out and out parody, but followed all the same beats. I wonder how many viewers made the connection. Pretty obscure.
Also, Bolt was way better than it had any right to be and probably Travolta’s best movie in years.
Hah Brian I was thinking that last night while watching The Simpsons. Did anyone else notice Emily Blunt voiced the episode?
I’d personally love to Marisa Tomei take it home. That might make up for the fact that The Wrestler was left out of Best Pic and screenplay.
[…] books, start doing so now. That’s an order!)/Film “extra pulp” t-shirts. I loveIn Contention Oscar Race. Phase […]
WALL-E aint gonna win screenplay, as much as it deserves it. There are two many Reel Geezers in the Academy.
I think we’ll see the BAFTA acting winners match up with Oscar once again.
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz
I was trying to make my first stab at the winners and the only lock I could come up with was Wall-E. Slumdog sure rides the current wave much higher than any other nominee for Best Picture but that can all change.
And I’ve just seen The Reader. Poor film, decent performances. Nothing more. Revolutionary Road is many a mile better.
Hey Tapley, random news but did you hear Mickey Rourke is going in the ring for Wrestlemania 25? The man is officially my hero.
Heh I read that too. Seems like a strange rumour now, I won’t believe it until he actually enters the ring. Would be great though.
Would be a classic WWE move.
(P.S.: Anyone having trouble loading the site lately?)
Mickey Rourke going in the ring for Wrestlemania could end up being his NORBIT.
Better a look of the next contenders
BEST PICTURE
Need
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST DIRECTOR
Andrew Jarecki/All Good Things
Spike Jonze/Where the Wild Things Are
Michael Mann/Public Enemies
Rob Marshall/Nine
Martin Scorsese/Shutter Island
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem/Biutiful
Matt Damon/The Informant
Daniel Day Lewis/Nine
Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island
Morgan Freeman/The Human Factor
BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt/The Young Victoria
Michelle Pfeiffer/Cheri
Hilary Swank/Amelia
Evan Rachel Wood/Whatever Works
Naomi Watts/Need
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale/Public Enemies
Emile Hirsch/Taking Woodstock
Ruben Ochandiano/Biutiful
Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Road
Ray Winstone/Edge of Darkness
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain/The Tree of Life
Marion Cotillard/Nine
Kirsten Dunst/All Good Things
Leslie Mann/Funny People
Michelle Williams/Shutter Island
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
All Good Things
Edge of Darkness
Funny People
Up
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Green Zone
Need
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Inglorious Bastards
Public Enemies
Nine
Taking Woodstock
The Tree of Life
BEST FILM EDITING
Edge of Darkness
Green Zone
Nine
Public Enemies
Shutter Island
Where the Wild Things Are is an adaptation.
Bart Smith, Wrestlemania is in April I believe.
And because someone else was insane enough to do it first:
Best Picture:
Amelia
Green Zone
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Public Enemies
Best Director:
Paul Greengrass, Green Zone
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Michael Mann, Public Enemies
Mira Nair, Amelia
Lone Sherfig, An Education
Best Actor:
Jim Carrey, I Love You Philip Morris
Matt Damon, The Informant
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
James Franco, Howl
Best Actress:
Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
Hope Davis, Happy Together
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
Best Supporting Actor:
Pierce Brosnan, The Greatest
George Clooney, Men Who Stare at Goats
Billy Crudup, Public Enemies
Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Best Supporting Actress:
Judi Dench, Nine
Sophia Loren, Nine
Emily Mortimer, Shutter Island
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
Olivia Williams, An Education
Best Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
Green Zone
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Public Enemies
Best Original Screenplay:
Broken Embraces
Happy Together
Howl
The Informant
I Love You Philip Morris
Alright, if you guys already wanna start predicting next year’s Oscars, please don’t make the mistake of grossly underestimating my most anticipated movie in 2009, Ang Lee’s “Taking Woodstock”!
Kris-
While I disagree with you, I know that you disliked “The Reader” immensely (putting it mildly). My question is, do you dislike Kate Winslet as well? I know you disliked the movie but I’ve noticed that there has been some vitriol towards her as well and I don’t really understand this. I believe she’s one of the best actresses out there and maybe I’m wrong and you just disliked this particular performance.
Thanks
Don’t be too shocked if Milk wins.
Bryan C., I’m afraid Demetri Martin’s dramatic debut will be another Ang Lee misfire.
i think Frost/Nixon is really the only non-factor in the Best Picture race.
When did you become such a malcontent? I remember Sasha Stone making a comment to that effect early on in awards season when you repeatedly expressed your disdain for the NBR, but the constant vitriol is significantly impacting the content of the site. In Contention obviously ranks amongst the best of these Oscar spaces, and I would hate to see it be consumed by pettiness.
That said, I think Milk has the best chance at upsetting Slumdog Millionaire. I also think it is probably likely that Frost/Nixon was the fifth nominee, not The Reader.
Tina: I liked Winslet very much but her performance is a shell of what it likely could have been with the proper editorial care. I can’t imagine what was left on the floor.
Erin: I don’t consider a personal opinion petty just because it happens to not be jubilant. Sorry. But here’s to next year, I guess.
Oh, and as for the nut-jobs going ahead with predicting 2009 — I love you guys. As usual, my year-in-advance predictions will land the day after the Oscars.
As of today, I’ve officially seen 5/5 supporting actress performances and in my mind, Marisa Tomei deserves the Oscar – she works wonders with a familiar role. However, as to who ‘will’ win – I think it will be Cruz or Davis. After seeing Doubt today, I think Viola Davis was riveting in her short scene and Amy Adams completely deserves her nomination (perhaps not at the expense of Rosemarie DeWitt though!) Penelope Cruz was simply decent in Vicky Cristina Barcelona – I really didn’t care much for the film (or her performance)
Erin: It’s an opinion-based site, so if one happens to be disappointed with aspects of this year’s race, there’s little sense in hiding it. Every year is different. At the very least, you can’t have missed Kris’ unbridled enthusiasm for the film likely to clean up on Oscar night, so he’s not such a “malcontent.”
I am really looking forward to Nine, The Lovely Bones and Public Enemies. Hope alle 3 of them will be players next award season. Martys Shutter Island is also interesting but I’m hesitating naming it as an award contender. The book is really something special and it is nothing like Marty has done before. The book has some very brutal dream sequences that seems very hard to translate onto the big screen. Really looking forward to see DiCaprio in it and Mark Ruffalo is perfectly casted.
Regarding this years Oscars it would be a joy to finally see Thomas Newman win one. But Rahman has best score in the bag so fingers crossed for best song.
Next year looks much more promising than this years race!
Anyway, I would be very surprised if “Wall-E” is considered the frontrunner for the screenplay-category. This one belongs to “Milk”, which has a strong social message the Academy members would feel ignorant to snub.
Mo’Nique is SO getting an oscar nod next year for Push.
My question: Is anything getting Dark Knight-sized buzz? At first, I thought “The Informers” would, being Brad Renfro’s last hurrah and all. Then it got practically shit on at Sundance.
But really, anything generating enormous amounts of Oscar buzz as of yet?
just me: You’re probably right. Man, she was praised across the freaking board. More than the film was, if I remember correctly.
And is anyone looking forward to “Black Dynamite” as much as I am? When the heck’s it coming out? I can’t wait.
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