In Contention

Category: Off the Carpet

  • OFF THE CARPET: Enough foreplay

    WALL-EWhat else is there to say?  Tomorrow we’ll have a new president and the last eight years will, hopefully, start to fade away.  In four days we’ll have a fresh slate of Oscar nominees and the last four months of awards speculation will suddenly be a distant memory.  The big wheel keeps on turning.

    I don’t know what else can be added to the conversation at this point that hasn’t been mulled over a million times already.  I do know, as my final set of Oscar predictions will reflect, that this years seems to be given to the safe bet more than any other in recent memory.  But I also know the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is a difficult group of people to corner.  There are always surprises.

    As I look over the landscape of the 2008-2009 season, I find myself seeking out those blind-side possibilities.  No one saw “City of God” coming four times over in 2003.  Hardly anyone expected Tommy Lee Jones to snatch a nomination last year after failing to pop up throughout the precursor season.  And certainly, no one banked on a “Dreamgirls” snub in 2006.

    But these things happen.  I’ll lay out a set of my own left-field possibilities on Wednesday, since this year’s inauguration proceedings have kept the weekly Oscar column somewhat removed from the actual announcement (generally I write this the day before), but today I thought I’d end phase one with a few question marks I feel it necessary to punctuate.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: From the horse’s mouth

    Kate Winslet at the 66th Annual Golden Globe AwardsThe last two weeks have been a leaf blower to the debris an awards season can accumulate.  Individuals with some real say in the ultimate Oscar picture have finally gone on the record, painting a rather clear picture of the industry’s favorite films of 2008.

    But before diving into the realities of the various guild announcements, it is probably worth touching upon the gleeful diversions of the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Golden Globe Awards.

    These are the two culminating critics soirees, capping off the annual critical kudos sprint through December and early January.  Both proudly declare themselves Oscar harbingers but only one seems to find itself decided from a critical mindset (even if that mindset is still warped by pegging a zeitgeist).  The other is, as always, a drunken time amongst industry friends that goes its own way.

    But dare I say it, this year the HFPA may have actually raised the bar for the Academy.  After years of embarrassing nominations announcements and sometimes bewildering winner choices, the group awarded a slate of contenders last night that stuck out as noble and, shockingly, novel.

    Can the Academy’s membership reach out to Mickey Rourke and meet him half way like he has clearly done this season to an industry that has shunned him for so many years?  Can they find a way to spread the kudos love while an inevitable “Slumdog” sweep pushes through the evening of February 22?

    Moreover, can AMPAS have the balls to follow in the HFPA’s footsteps with a double win for Kate Winslet, arguably deserving this year and a move that would be inarguable as a hell of an apology for years of Oscar losses?  The actress joined Sigourney Weaver last night as one of only two actresses to win a pair of Golden Globe awards for film performances in one evening.  Your move, Oscar.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Memo to the Academy

    The Academy Awards–MEMO–

    TO: Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences
    FROM: Kristopher Tapley

    RE: The ballot you recently received

    Ladies and gentleman,

    As you sit to ponder the year’s best in your various fields of professional expertise, you might find yourself strong-armed into the consensus view 2008’s film product has been whittled down to over the last 30 days.  You might even find yourself at a loss, cramming as much as you can after a year of constantly working with nary a moment to spare a trip to the cinema.  Such last minute jitters can yield an unconsidered and, certainly, lackadaisical approach to your annual responsibilities as AMPAS members.  But I implore you to take your time with this, be measured, and above all, take pen to paper with a level of seriousness.

    While I would never presume to tell you how to go about filling in your respective ballots, I hope you don’t find it too bold of me to offer a few closing words of encouragement and suggestion as we close the book on 2008.  The glut of film awards season fades into a numbing hum you’d perhaps rather ignore until the holidays have run their course, so come back to these words at a later date if you must.  They merely represent the humble opinion of one passionate film lover who believes in the potential of your organization and the ideals it stands for.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: A season less ordinary…or is it?

    (from left) Michael Caine, Heath Ledger and Christian Bale in The Dark KnightThe critics have nearly concluded their annual kudos dish.  The first guild has spoken, giving us some sliver of insight into what Academy members might think of the 2008-2009 Oscar season.  With such a thin crop of contenders, the tome has been “broad, but shallow, playing field,” leaving the opportunity for multiple films to find their champions and even the least AMPAS-friendly of products to find room at the table.

    So as we inch toward year’s end, what have we learned?  When it comes to the usual blend, the Academy will find a way.

    A scenario has been kicking around inside my head for some time that, like one concerned reader in another post, scares me to death.  It is pretty much a done deal for “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” two refreshingly different films where AMPAS tastes are concerned, but paradoxically boring with the knowledge that there is passion elsewhere, seemingly too intimidated to rear its head.

    “Frost/Nixon” and “Milk” are assured after that, it seems, two films cut from the AMPAS cloth from a director who knows that cloth well and one who only finds Academy acceptance when he goes there, respectively.  After that, “the knowledge” has become the truly exciting spark of the season: can a populist film such as “The Dark Knight” or “WALL-E” find the right base of passion to push through for a Best Picture nomination?

    I fear we may have all gotten carried away with ourselves and our love of these films, whether you fall on one side or both, because we’re ignoring AMPAS tendency at our own peril.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Finding a happy place

    Mickey Rourke in The WrestlerI’m reaching that sweet spot of the Oscar season.  That moment right on the cusp of major precursor announcements when critics and audiences begin to join a conversation that’s been talked in circles by us pundits for a few months.  The vacuum is slipping away and the clarity of perspective shines through.

    Yeah, I can admit it.  When it’s one or two guys out in front of Oscar contenders, bandying about their potential, it’s really just hot air until we come to this point of the year.  I gave up the idea of “formula” long ago, even if there are a precious few who still cling to that “analyst” role as something of substance.  It’s not, really, and we’re reminded of that each and every December.

    That having been said, I certainly couldn’t sit here and tell you the announcements of the National Board of Review, the scattered critical kudos and a few top 10 lists have drastically altered the game.  And when the Los Angeles and New York critics chime in later this week, I don’t anticipate much in the way of a revelation then either.  It’s just the way this year has turned out, leaving me wondering what more I can say in this space as we wind the year down.  So I thought I’d turn to the words of those of us who’ve been in the game longer than the rest, before the Oscar season became such an industry and when many of us had less of a clue than we do now, but paradoxically, had the perspective of removed innocence to show the way.

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  • Column? We don’t need no stinking column.

    Turns out I don’t have the time to dig into a full column this week like I had hoped.  I’ll have to get into my thoughts on “Gran Torino” and “Seven Pounds” another time, but I do feel the need to note one thing in this week’s charts: “The Dark Knight” leaping into the Best Picture fray.

    I still don’t feel completely comfortable with this.  It was a coin flip on whether to take “Frost/Nixon” or “Revolutionary Road” out of the mix.  Meanwhile, no one seems to be hearing passionate murmurs from the Academy on the Caped Crusader.  So maybe I look like I’m pulling my punches here, but with the consistency of disappointment this year, I just feel like the door is opening for something that strays this much from AMPAS tradition to find its way in.

    That said, there are things at work here that should be taken into account.  Like the international stake Warner Bros. has in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” for instance, owning every territory but North America.  The studio is even taking out some of the Oscar ads you’re seeing for the film.  So perhaps chips are being rationed toward a film like “Button” that will need the box office boost of awards season rather than a film like “The Dark Knight,” which has made more than its fair share of dollars.

    This is all fodder for another column at another time.  But for now, I can’t dive in appropriately.  So I’ll just leave you with the charts.  This time next week I’ll have seen the full slate of contenders and the National Board of Review will have come and gone.  Then it’s LAFCA, NYFCC and onward into the season.  Slowly, it will unfold.

    Main Category Charts
    Technical Category Charts
    The Contenders
    Oscar Prediction Archives

  • OFF THE CARPET: Insert witty Oscar column headline here

    Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThis year’s Oscar season is sapping the creativity from my bones.  Perhaps it’s foolish to come to this space every week and offer a full-blown column.  Sometimes there isn’t much to talk about.  This year, however, the things we do have to talk about don’t seem worth talking about.

    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” for instance, was the most anticipated film of the season.  But three days after finally seeing the film, I’m not feeling the resonance I anticipated.  The film is a cinematic marvel, a stroke of screenwriting brilliance and a massive leap forward across an array of technical achievements.  But it hasn’t captured my imagination like I thought it would.

    Your guess is as good as mine on that one.

    “The Reader” finally screened to the press at large yesterday, both here in Los Angeles and in the Big Apple.  The buzz leading up to the big reveal was that, hey, this might be a bigger contender than we anticipated.  But personally speaking, the result is almost an afterthought — no lingering, no spirited embrace of the film’s themes and story particulars.  Just another film.

    So, is it just me, or is the soft landing of so many of the year’s perceived heavies beginning to tangibly expose 2008 as the Oscar low point we all thought it would become?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Getting to know you

    Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet in Revolutionary RoadThis is the first season I can think of, at least since I’ve been covering this crazy beat on the west coast, that studios have become so terrified by the media that guild screenings are preempting press screenings with such consistency.

    Some have whined about “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” screening for SAG 10 days before the media at large gets a look (with the usual brand of entitlement that turns the stomach).  Others actually snuck into the screening, surely freaking out a few publicists desperate to unfold the film at their own pace (and the pace dictated by the meticulous David Fincher).  I’m just waiting.

    Plenty have taken the altered ending story behind “Australia,” not to mention the film being held from the press until two weeks before it opens, as a sign that the movie is in trouble.  I’m just waiting.

    Lots of anticipation has suddenly been blown into “The Reader”‘s previously deflated balloon.  I’m just waiting.

    But I have to say, seeing a couple of the year’s contenders last week with big industry audiences proved to be just the breath of fresh air this incredibly stifling season needed.

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  • I’m SO ‘off the carpet’ this week

    After the online drama of the last couple of weeks, it’s been nice to settle in and get to the actual movies for a change.  The media at large has gotten a look at “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk” and “Doubt,” while features and long lead writers have had their peeks at “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Revolutionary Road.”  A elect few have seen “Defiance.”  The only outstanding variables of the season remain “Australia” (tick-tock) and “The Reader” (with a grand trailer debut late last week).

    We’re getting there.

    An array of interviews and AFI Fest commitments have kept me from really digging into a column this week, but I have adjusted the charts for the time being.  There’s still a lot of guessing going on, even if a number of categories are coming into focus.  But tomorrow’s results really could have an effect on this thing.  We’ll see how it plays out…

    Main Category Charts
    Technical Category Charts
    The Contenders
    Oscar Prediction Archives

  • OFF THE CARPET: Holding back

    Meryl Streep in SoubtEvery Oscar season is about managing expectations. Studios, of course, want to keep the murmurs to a minimum whether they have the goods or not because the peril of peaking too early is just as bad as the sting of negative word-of-mouth. Similarly, being “the one to beat” sets a film up to rise to an unfair occasion rather than coming to the table fresh.

    Holding back is a tradition and is even one of two philosophies on the awards season sell. There are those who’ll tell you that, if you have a great movie, you should show it and show it proudly. The other side of the equation believes in the manipulation of when and where opinion will trickle out. It seems every year a train wreck of sorts occurs, and this year, that train wreck was obviously “Frost/Nixon.”

    After landing in London to some mediocre reviews (no one at this site, by the way, ever said the film was bombing with critics across the board), should Universal Pictures have been particularly surprised? Ron Howard, America’s white-bread filmmaking standard exhibiting to the chilly British disposition? It wasn’t going to be a rapturous reception, and with the film having been completed for months on end, holding back until the London festival to give anyone a sanctioned peek raised eyebrows long ago.

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  • Updated predictions, but…

    …no column this week.  Seriously, what’s there to discuss?  The expected box office miss for “Body of Lies?”  The expected critical approval of “Happy-Go-Lucky” (which makes some strides this week)?  But I know people get ancy if the predictions aren’t updated, so I am here to be your savior.  Not a lot of shifting and sliding but some notable indications here and there.

    A quick note, however, regarding the “up” and “down” arrows you see on the charts each week.  It seems a few folks have been confused about their actual meaning, so let me reiterate that here.  Just because a contender has an arrow next to his or her name does not mean he or she has positive or negative buzz.  The arrows simply indicate that an entry has risen or fallen on the chart since the last update, and a rise or fall can be the result of any number of factors on the chart that might have nothing to do with the contender in question.  Keep that in mind.

    Here are this week’s updated predictions:

    Main Category Charts
    Technical Category Charts
    The Contenders
    Oscar Prediction Archives

  • OFF THE CARPET: Who we are, who we want to be

    (from left) Josh Brolin and Toby Jones in W.In the last few weeks, drama has persisted in the yet-to-be-heated Oscar season.  Producers are debating exhibitors in public and mid-summer opinions of awards-caliber product are being revisited — in some cases disavowed — as more and more viewers get their peeks.

    On the positive side, two studios have launched the screener circuit with indie films they hope can muster some remembrance, while the foreign film news bite barrage has come to a close with the qualification deadline.  But there isn’t much to go on in terms of assessing the season, not a lot in the way of tangible grist for the mill.

    Lots of smoke, very little fire.

    In part, that should explain a lack of predictions updates here at In Contention, shifting and sliding for no reason.  And indeed, this week’s update isn’t a massive overhaul — or even an overhaul — beyond putting a few things into context here, trimming the fat there.  But as I set out to update our projections this week, I became more and more aware of 2008’s striking theme of self-reflection this Oscar season.  And hey, it seemed as good an idea for a column as any.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: When the movies play second fiddle

    Kate Winslet and Stephen Daldry on the set of The ReaderShort column this time around because there are just a few specific things on my mind.

    It’s been a relatively slow couple of weeks in the wake of the Toronto International Film Festival.  At least on the surface.’

    Behind the scenes, studios are circling their wagons, securing Oscar ad buys, prepping their fall product and gently waiting.  “Hope you had fun at the fests,” they seem to be saying to the independent success stories of the year.  “The main event is about to begin.”

    And yet, the “main event” consistently disappoints.  Downfall can as easily be attributed to hype as it can to poor quality, an idea our own John Foote pondered last week.  Indeed, there are a few productions I expect to be rewarded for their discretion this year, lying in wait while the usual suspects empty their chambers in the loud march to Oscar.

    But it seems like casualties are already presenting themselves.  It pains me to see the Scott Rudin/Harvey Weinstein debate dragged through the mud every single day, right down to the manipulation of Nikki finke in order to make Weinstein look like an outright douche bag.  Whatever the particulars, is there any question that the real loser at the end of all of this isn’t Weinstein, isn’t Rudin, but “The Reader” itself?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Looking for quality in the festival world

    Guy Pearce in The Hurt LockerThis year’s Toronto International Film Festival just didn’t cut it for some people.  The talk of Oscar taking a break from the annual September showcase had become tired before films even began screening, and certainly before every major news outlet had chosen the angle as the only story worth telling.

    For 10 days, the excitement for what was on hand seemed terribly muted.  But for my part, I could not have been more enthralled.

    We’ve been gifted with frontrunners in the two lead acting categories (Mickey Rourke and Kristin Scott Thomas), performances that should maintain their bee-lines for nominations at the very least, despite what the next three months have in store.  A studio that looked primed for a much-deserved year off the Oscar circuit two weeks ago has emerged as a formidable contender yet again with two acquisitions that are already winning awards (Fox Searchlight).

    What’s more, true independent cinema was given a stage on which to perform without being obscured by big studio product seeking a pre-Oscar campaign boost.  As a result, at least two well-received sleepers have insinuated themselves into the film awards spotlight (“The Hurt Locker,” “Lovely, Still”).

    What’s not exciting?

    I started out this season thinking 2008 would be a weak year for cinema, perhaps on the level of 2005’s shoddy output.  The idea has been echoed in numerous corners, as well as by fellow contributors, but I feel the need to re-frame my philosophy on the situation.  2008 seems to be proving itself a much more measured year, perhaps with less “rah-rah” exhibitions of undeniable filmmaking talent than solid and penetrating works that are out there for the interested (and patient) viewer.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Indies on the march

    (from left) Evan Rachel Wood and Mickey Rourke in The WrestlerMaybe mid-way through the Toronto Film Festival, two things are strikingly clear: Darren Aronofsky has the goods with “The Wrestler” and Danny Boyle’s streak of successful versatility at the helm continues with “Slumdog Millionaire.”

    Both films, which enjoy pre-Toronto success at Venice and Telluride respectfully, are also evidence that surprises will happen this time of year.  And with an uncharacteriztically level playing field in Toronto this year, we should be thankful they are getting a fair shake.

    One of them is set for distribution, however, while the other is waiting out a buyer.  But will “The Wrestler” find a home and see a release in 2008 or will an awards-heavy distributor pick it up and save it for a rainy day in 2009’s awards season?

    Both options are on the table, it’s just a matter of who bites first, and what they bring to the table.

    On the horizon, everyone is awaiting their post-Toronto peeks at films like “Australia,” “Revolutionary Road,” “Milk” (landing a trailer this week) and “The Soloist.”  David Fincher’s 20 minutes of footage from “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” may have been caught off guard by over-zealous bloggers in Telluride, but the damage may not have been as considerable as some may have thought.

    Speaking of “The Soloist,” chatter is making its way out of the Paramount camp that Robert Downey Jr. is outstanding as LA Times columnist Steve Lopez and hopes are high for a Best Actor nomination.  And as far as “Milk” is concerned, prognosticators may have the wrong idea going in as to which supporting performance has the awards-worthy chops.  More on that at a later date.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Make way for the little guys…or not

    Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting MarriedIt may be Labor Day, but the work at hand is breathing down our necks. So it is that we come to the first weekly Oscar column of the new awards season.

    Though to be frank with you, I’m beginning to wonder whether we’ll be able to keep the conversation going, much less interesting on a weekly basis as we push through the last four months of the year. I knew going in to this year that it was going to be a somewhat low-key season, and my own worst fears have been founded in a number of pre-Toronto screenings of films that will be discussed in a week’s time, films leaving me cold, irritated or otherwise just unconvinced.

    I don’t sense a lull on the level of 2005 by any means, but I do get the feeling that after two solid years of cinematic goodness, 2008 could just be one of those “rebuilding” years, to steal a sports term and painfully attempt its application here. It’s interesting (and telling) that my two favorite films of the year are a stoner comedy and a superhero adaptation respectively (though the latter obviously has a legion of fans banking on major awards success…more on that later).

    The most intriguing component for me is the playground that Toronto will provide for a bevy of independent and genuinely smaller product. The heavy-hitters (or, at the very least, the presumed heavy-hitters) are incomplete and not prepared for fall fest unveiling (aside from “Frost/Nixon,” which has already been seen and seems to be riding a wave of confidence at Universal).

    But efforts like Mike Leigh’s “Happy-Go-Lucky,” Jonathan Demme’s “Rachel Getting Married,” Vicente Amorim’s “Good,” Guillermo Arriaga’s “The Burning Plain,” Rian Johnson’s “The Brothers Bloom,” Richard Eyre’s “The Other Man,” etc. — true indies with a fighting chance to turn some heads — won’t have to suffer in the shadows of big studio films angling for the press of an Oscar season starting gun.

    Meanwhile, Cannes entries such as Fernando Meirelles’s “Blindness,” Charlie Kaufman’s “Synecdoche, New York,” Matteo Garrone’s “Gomorrah” and Steven Soderbergh’s “Che” get an uninhibited second chance in front of festival audiences. Ditto Clint Eastwood’s “Changeling,” in the case of the New York fest.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Calm before the storm

    Sean Penn in MilkThe season is upon us.  One month from today the industry’s first major stepping stone on the way to the Kodak Theater will arrive in the form of the Toronto International Film Festival: 10 days of put up or shut up by a number of the year’s prospective contenders.

    Oddly enough, however, there will be a few considerable no-shows at this year’s festivities.  In a business increasingly proving the precariousness of an early “frontrunner” status, studios and publicists seem to be slowing the machine down…but a few hands have been forced this season.

    Heavily anticipated entries like “Revolutionary Road” and “Milk” will be absent at Toronto next month.  Neither is expected to be ready, actually.  Sam Mendes has been hard at work on “Farlanders,” while Focus Features would probably prefer to take the slow road after emerging from Toronto as the “frontrunner” in 2005 and 2007, but ultimately coming up short on Oscar night.

    This is probably for the best on both.  Gotta maintain those expectations.  Early raves are as dangerous as early pans.

    Meanwhile, the lineup is currently littered with modest independent efforts that depend on the festival circuit to find their groove: “Happy-Go-Lucky,” “The Other Man,” “Rachel Getting Married,” “The Secret Life of Bees,” etc.  The major stuff — so far — seems to be steering clear.

    Regardless, we’ve got one more month of full blown speculation before the season begins to settle into a tangible state…so let’s get to it.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Stuck in the middle with…what?

    Since we’ve finally reached the midway point of 2008, it seemed as good a time as any to post the first “Off the Carpet” column since our year in advance take over four months ago.

    First and foremost, I’m in a unique situation this year.  Being in London since mid-May, I’ve found myself looking from the outside in on a lot of projects.  The UK generally has later release dates, meaning later press screenings.  And so, films like “WALL-E” and “The Dark Knight,” I won’t be commenting on them (and, therefore, won’t have an educated viewpoint on their Oscar prospects) until I’m back in the States in three weeks.

    In a lot of ways, it’s just like the old days (for those who remember the old, clunky Oscar Central stuff, or perhaps the sporadic columns at Oscarwatch (now Awards Daily).  I’m back in the position of fan first, commentator second in some areas, and it’s been a bit of a thrill, I have to say.  Especially in a year of Bat-hype nearly approaching the hysteria of the summer of 1989.

    But with that in mind, I also humbly recall that my Oscar-guessing mind was in a slightly better place back then, removed from the fray, having the true instincts of an observer on which to depend.  But all of that is beside the point.  The real question is, right now, half way through the year, which films have even laid a claim for film awards attention in the brutal season that will be here before we know it?

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