The critics have had their say. “The Social Network” has enjoyed an impressive kudos haul throughout the month of December. Game over, call it, throw in the towel, all other comers need not apply, “there is only one.”
That’s the instinct. But I embrace caution over haste (and I’m not on the advocacy bandwagon), so sue me if I’m just not there yet.
One of the more undercooked arguments I’ve read recently that places “The Social Network” in the Oscar frontrunner position is that you should call the race as it stands rather than forecast. Obviously that goes completely against what it means to prognosticate, but it also ignores the fact that what’s afoot isn’t always represented by what’s in the news, at least at this early stage.
Yes, the critics predictably went gaga over the film. But the #2 coming out of that circuit is probably “Black Swan.” So do we then assume the race for Oscar is between those two films? Of course not. Because, however overstated the point may be (by necessity, though, given stubbornness), critics don’t vote for Oscars.
Sony’s campaign for
Tomorrow the guild circuit launches with the WGA (separate post coming) and PGA nominations. The critics’ circuit was well and good but this is where crossover memberships begin to give us a tangible view of how the race will fill out.
[Guy’s updated predictions
They may have enjoyed a three-year run of nominations in the category, finally taking the gold with 
The London Film Critics’ Circle can always be relied upon to throw a couple of wild cards into a nominee list of otherwise endlessly repeated names — demonstrating at least some awareness of life outside Oscar season. So it is this year, as their Best Director category is filled by Fincher, Aronofsky, Nolan, the Coens… and Apichatpong Weerasethakul, the Thai auteur behind Palme d’Or champ
I decided to update the
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The week, and with it, the bulk of my 2010 coverage, draws to a close today with a look at the best of the best. I’m offering up a personal list of superlatives, including most Oscar categories and some other fun fields thrown in for good measure. A tradition at this point.
I’ll give you a moment to recover from the shock. [Moment.] There, may I continue? Of the B-list critics’ awards, the Chicago Film Critics’ Association attracts more eyeballs than most, largely because it’s Roger Ebert’s stomping ground — though the list of nominees they announced this morning suggests a lot of autopilot voting with a few welcome flashes of inspiration.