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Tomorrow the guild circuit launches with the WGA (separate post coming) and PGA nominations. The critics’ circuit was well and good but this is where crossover memberships begin to give us a tangible view of how the race will fill out.
Last year the PGA (Producers Guild of America) piggy-backed the Academy’s plan to expand the field of nominees from five to 10. It also copied the new voting scheme, which uses the preferential balloting system to determine nominees.
The two films that missed with the guild but made it into the Best Picture 10 were “The Blind Side” (odd that it missed, given its box office take) and the Coens’ “A Serious Man.” In their place: Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus” (why?) and the blockbuster “Star Trek.” What can we expect this year? Continue after the jump to see what I’m thinking.
Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award for Motion Pictures
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
“Shutter Island”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
I thought about pathetically predicting the same 10 I’m currently betting on for Oscar. But why not anticipate a surprise or two? Anne’s “steak eaters” take on “The Kids Are All Right” could easily rear its head here.
I thought about taking a dive on “Alice in Wonderland” (it made over $1 billion and the award is named after producer Dick Zanuck’s father, after all — not that that matters but, you know, respect), but it’s hard to imagine a lot of passion behind the film. Another possibility is a second tip of the hat to animation, for “How to Train Your Dragon.” The most likely to fall away might be “127 Hours,” which hasn’t impressed at the box office (to say the least). But I’ll go this route and not get TOO crazy.
Speaking of animation:
Producer of the Year Award in Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
“Despicable Me”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Megamind”
“Tangled”
“Toy Story 3″
That’s right, I’ll go with the idea that the producers won’t be all that impressed with “The Illusionist,” if they’ve even had a chance to see it at all. I could totally be wrong, of course.
What are you predicting? Someone go out on a limb, for cryin’ out loud. Clearly I’m not willing to.
[Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures]
17 responses so far
1 1-03-2011 at 10:15 am
seasondays said...
i am actually going crazy with my predictions, i’m predicting the usual seven…
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
and filling those three spots with…
“The Ghost Writer”
“How To Train Your Dragon”
“Shutter Island”
but it may be wishful thinking
2 1-03-2011 at 10:17 am
Maxim said...
Oh, I’ll totally go with Alice in Wonderland. I think I was the only one to do so over on Awards Daily (in my rare guest appearance and will do the same here). I actually feel pretty comfortable with that pick.
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“Alice In Wonderland”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Social Network”
“The Kids are Alright”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
I’d be more bullish on “Tangled” actually, if it had a smaller budget.
I also took out “The Town” in favor of the “Kids are All Right” but it wasn’t a very easy choice.
3 1-03-2011 at 10:23 am
eurocheese said...
OK, my adventurous guesses:
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Waiting for “Superman”
4 1-03-2011 at 10:27 am
Andrej said...
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Shutter Island
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
My 11th pick would be Shutter Island. If it gets in, it’s taking The Town’s spot.
I’d like to see How to Train Your Dragon, but I’m fearing Toy Story 3′s box office’s far too big to adequately place two animated movies here.
NGNG: Hereafter. How much can they love Clint Eastwood after Invictus?
5 1-03-2011 at 10:28 am
James Stewart said...
Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award for Motion Pictures
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter´s Bone”
Producer of the Year Award in Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
“Despicable Me”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Tangled”
“Toy Story 3″
6 1-03-2011 at 10:39 am
starbucks10172 said...
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
Toy Story 3
Inception
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Town
True Grit
127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
7 1-03-2011 at 11:05 am
Joe7827 said...
The Social Network
Inception
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
The King’s Speech
True Grit
The Fighter
The Town
How to Train Your Dragon
Winter’s Bone
8 1-03-2011 at 11:10 am
Mr. F said...
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
How to Train Your Dragon
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
9 1-03-2011 at 11:58 am
Paul Outlaw said...
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
10 1-03-2011 at 12:08 pm
Mark Johnson said...
Those are the same exact 10 films I posted today as my own predictions. So it’s good to know I’m on the same page as you, Kristopher.
11 1-03-2011 at 12:10 pm
Mark Johnson said...
Oops… no it’s not. I have TKAAR over 127 Hours.
12 1-03-2011 at 12:13 pm
Lenny said...
Here are my predictions…
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Shutter Island
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Also possibilities…
127 Hours and Winter’s Bone
13 1-03-2011 at 12:31 pm
DylanS said...
“127 Hours”
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
14 1-03-2011 at 1:10 pm
MIKETM732 said...
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Inception
True Grit
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
The Ghost Writer
The Town
15 1-03-2011 at 3:41 pm
Andrej said...
… Fails. On my list I put Shutter Island and then said Shutter Island would be my alternative pick. I obviously meant to put The Town on my list.
16 1-03-2011 at 4:56 pm
Zach Heltzel said...
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
Scott Pilgrim? It keeps popping up in scattered places around the critics circles, and while it was a box office bomb, if there’s anywhere we could see it randomly rear its head…