As I look over my final predictions for tomorrow night’s Oscar ceremony, I notice that I’ve made only one change — in the Best Live Action Short category — since taking my initial stab the day of the nominations. And I haven’t made a single change since I started the Oscar Guide series.
Am I that confidant in my picks? Not really. It’s a very unpredictable year all of a sudden (the AP chimes in on that here), even if conventional wisdom would have us believe much of this is a foregone conclusion. But nothing has really moved the needle during the bulk of phase two and the one controversy that popped up may not be as detrimental as some suspect. Regardless, I’m frankly bracing myself for having an off year.
And it kinda sucks because I set a pretty high bar for myself last year, a personal best, as I nailed down a web-leading 21 of the 24 categories (23 of 24 if you count alternates). That included a call for “Departures” that left me exposed to plenty of “You’re just trying to be different” heckling. Ahem.
If I even approach those numbers this time around, I’ll certainly be surprised. I frankly don’t expect to hit 21 ever again, but who knows? Many areas of this race are coming right down to the wire.
And here we are. With one day until the Oscar ceremony, we wrap up our Oscar Guide series with a look at the 10 nominations for Best Picture. Yes, 10. The Academy decided to pump up the intrigue by expanding its Best Picture field this year in an attempt at securing some love for more populist films with a wider audience, and it seems to have worked.
Best Original Screenplay: 2009’s most difficult category to predict. Why? Certainly not because of each contender’s merits (when does that ever come into play with the Academy). No, this field is a hair-puller because you have a vibrant, likable personality up against the Best Picture frontrunner, always a recipe for a close race (and, sometimes, a recipe for upset).
Earlier in the week, Steve Pond published a story at
Welcome to the first of two (and the only two) categories that have me pulling my hair out. The cinematography race is a strange breed this year. There isn’t the usual one or two “pretty” films that turn the Academy on at large, nothing with sweeping vistas and postcard composition, all the stuff that allows voters to stop being analytical and vote for mere aesthetic.
So this is Oscar. And what have you done?
In this morning’s
This year’s Best Director category has stirred a media frenzy for featuring, along with Best Picture, a face-to-face duel frequently dubbed “the battle of the exes.” Unfortunately the desire to tout that headline has clouded the discussion of the films, their merits and the actual accomplishments of those at the helm. But who cares about that stuff?
I’ll just let the press release speak for itself, in part:
Over at 

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