Nut up or shut up: final predictions

Posted by · 11:36 am · March 6th, 2010

Jeremy Renner in The Hurt LockerAs I look over my final predictions for tomorrow night’s Oscar ceremony, I notice that I’ve made only one change — in the Best Live Action Short category — since taking my initial stab the day of the nominations.  And I haven’t made a single change since I started the Oscar Guide series.

Am I that confidant in my picks?  Not really.  It’s a very unpredictable year all of a sudden (the AP chimes in on that here), even if conventional wisdom would have us believe much of this is a foregone conclusion.  But nothing has really moved the needle during the bulk of phase two and the one controversy that popped up may not be as detrimental as some suspect.  Regardless, I’m frankly bracing myself for having an off year.

And it kinda sucks because I set a pretty high bar for myself last year, a personal best, as I nailed down a web-leading 21 of the 24 categories (23 of 24 if you count alternates).  That included a call for “Departures” that left me exposed to plenty of “You’re just trying to be different” heckling.  Ahem.

If I even approach those numbers this time around, I’ll certainly be surprised.  I frankly don’t expect to hit 21 ever again, but who knows?  Many areas of this race are coming right down to the wire.

There’s talk circulating that older voters are springing for “Avatar,” which could give it the big lead it needs in the first round of voting to stay on top throughout the preferential process.  “The Hurt Locker” will, I think, accrue more votes than “Avatar” throughout the rounds, so unless it’s extremely close out of the gate, watch out for the big blue machine.

And how against convention will that be?  It’ll be the first film in nearly 80 years to win the Academy’s top honor without nominations for acting or writing.

Then there’s the lead actress race, which I’ll finally concede is closer than we might have thought.  But the upset contender to watch for might well be Gabourey Sidibe rather than perennial nominee Meryl Streep.

Meanwhile, the original screenplay category (as discussed) is locked in a dead heat, and I find myself wondering if there will even be indicators during the ceremony that let us know how things will turn out.  If pushed to pick the bellwether moment, I still say Best Film Editing.  Whatever film wins that award is your Best Picture victor.  Or…maybe not.  WHO KNOWS?

It’s a white-knuckle end to a long and exhausting race.  I wish you the best in your picks.  These are mine (category titles linked to respective Oscar Guide entries)…

(NOTE: If I happen to change any of these, which is entirely possible, I’ll be sure to note as much in this space.  I reserve the right to make alterations right up to the last minute, as always.)

Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar)
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” (alt. James Cameron, “Avatar”)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” (alt. Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”)
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” (alt. Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”)
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”)
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious” (alt. Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”)
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air” (alt. “Precious”)
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
Best Art Direction: “Avatar” (alt. “Sherlock Holmes”)
Best Cinematography: “Avatar” (alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria” (alt. “Nine”)
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
Best Makeup: “Star Trek” (alt. “The Young Victoria”)
Best Music (Original Score): “Up” (alt. “Avatar”)
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” (alt. “Take it All” from “Nine”)
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar” (alt. “District 9”)
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up” (alt. “Fantastic Mr. Fox”)
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Secret in Their Eyes” (alt. “A Prophet”)
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove” (alt. “Which Way Home”)
Best Documentary Short: “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” (alt. “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”)
Best Short Film (Animated): “Wallace & Gromit in ‘A Matter of Loaf and Death'” (alt. “Logorama”)
Best Short Film (Live Action): “The Door” (alt. “Kavi”)

Projected tally:

5 – “The Hurt Locker”
4 – “Avatar”
2 – “Crazy Heart,” “Up”
1 – “The Blind Side,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” “Star Trek,” “Up in the Air,” “The Young Victoria”

What are your final Oscar predictions?  Feel free to rifle them off in the comments section below!




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40 responses so far

  • 1 3-06-2010 at 12:19 pm

    Julian Stark said...

    Final Predictions for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards
    Best Picture: Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier, and Greg Shapiro, The Hurt Locker (alternate: Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (alternate: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (alternate: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker)
    Best Actress in a Leading Role: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (alternate: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire)
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (alternate: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger)
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire (alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart)
    Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker (alternate: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air (alternate: Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire)
    Best Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Sherlock Holmes (alternate: Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, and Kim Sinclair, Avatar)
    Best Cinematography: Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker (alternate: Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Costume Design: Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria (alternate: Colleen Atwood, Nine)
    Best Film Editing: Bob Murawski and Chris Innis, The Hurt Locker (alternate: Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, and James Cameron, Avatar)
    Best Makeup: Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, and Joel Harlow, Star Trek (alternate: Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore, The Young Victoria)
    Best Sound Editing: Paul N.J. Ottosson, The Hurt Locker (alternate: Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Avatar)
    Best Sound Mixing: Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, and Tony Johnson, Avatar) (alternate: Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett, The Hurt Locker)
    Best Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, and Andrew R. Jones, Avatar (alternate: Dan Kaufman, Pete Muyzers, Robert Habros, and Matt Aitken, District 9)
    Best Original Score: Michael Giacchino, Up (alternate: Hans Zimmer, Sherlock Holmes)
    Best Original Song: Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett, “The Weary Kind” by Ryan Bingham, Crazy Heart (alternate: Maury Yeston, “Take It All” by Marion Cotillard, Nine)
    Best Animated Feature Film: Pete Docter, Up (alternate: Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox)
    Best Documentary Feature: Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens, The Cove (alternate: Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein, Food, Inc.)
    Best Foreign Language Film: El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina (alternate: The White Ribbon, Germany)
    Best Documentary Short Subject: Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (alternate: Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett, Music by Prudence)
    Best Short Film (Live Action): Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey, Miracle Fish (alternate: Juanita Wilson and James Flynn, The Door)
    Best Short Film (Animated): Nick Park, A Matter of Loaf and Death (alternate: Fabrice O. Joubert, French Roast)

    Here’s the win tally for if my predictions are correct:
    Avatar – 2 (Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
    The Blind Side – 1 (Actress)
    The Cove – 1 (Documentary Feature)
    Crazy Heart – 2 (Actor, Original Song)
    El Secreto de Sus Ojos – 1 (Foreign Language Film)
    The Hurt Locker – 5 (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Editing)
    Inglourious Basterds – 1 (Supporting Actor)
    The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant – 1 (Documentary Short Subject)
    A Matter of Loaf and Death – 1 (Animated Short Film)
    Miracle Fish – 1 (Live Action Short Film)
    Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire – 1 (Supporting Actress)
    Sherlock Holmes – 1 (Art Direction)
    Star Trek – 1 (Makeup)
    Up – 2 (Animated Feature, Original Score)
    Up in the Air – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)
    The Young Victoria – 1 (Costume Design)

  • 2 3-06-2010 at 12:19 pm

    JJ said...

    Mine are quite similar to yours, Kris; only differing in Actress, Original Screenplay, and one of the shorts.

    I think it’s great that with PIC and DIR going late (I assume), we’ll all be in suspense as to which film will win because I’m sure that up to that point Avatar & The Hurt Locker will already have a few wins, perhaps Basterds, too.

    So, it will be a nailbiter, of sorts. :-)

  • 3 3-06-2010 at 12:20 pm

    Robert Hamer said...

    I must say, your alternate choice for Best Actor is a mighty bold pick…not that it matters since (knock on wood) Jeff Bridges has this in the bag.

    My only predictions that dissent from yours are Best Original Screenplay (Inglourious Basterds; Tarantino’s screenplay is the kind that calls attention to itself, and Boal’s isn’t), Best Cinematography (The White Ribbon; I think there will be a resistance to the lensing work in the digital environment of Avatar, but guild support and critical raves should put Berger over the top), and Best Foreign Language Film (The White Ribbon; Deserving or no, it’s THE foreign film of the year, and Haneke’s overdue).

    I know that makes me look like a sheep, but these races are becoming ever more predictable. Fingers crossed that our collective jaws drop at, say, Gabourey Sidibe’s name being called to the stage on the big night.

  • 4 3-06-2010 at 12:26 pm

    Will said...

    mine
    Inglourious Bastards
    Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow
    Best Actor – Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress – Sandra Bullock
    Bust Supporting Actor – Christopher Waltz
    Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique alt Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Writing Adapted Screenplay – Up in the Air
    Writing Original Screenplay – Up
    Art Direction – Sherlock Holmes
    Best Cinematography – Inglourious Bastards
    Best Costume – The Young Victoria alt Coco Before Chanel
    Best Film Editing – The Hurt Locker
    Best Make Up – Star Trek
    Best Original Score – Up
    Best Song – Take it All
    Best Sound Editing – Inglourious Bastard
    Best Sound Mixing – Star Trek
    Best Visual Effects – Avatar
    Best Animated Film – Up
    Best Foreign Language Film – A Prophet
    Best Documentary Feature – The Cove
    Best Documentary Short – China’s Unnatural Disaster
    Best Animated Short – Wallace and Grommit
    Best Live Short – The Door

  • 5 3-06-2010 at 12:36 pm

    Alejandro said...

    Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar)
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” (alt. James Cameron, “Avatar”)
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” (alt. Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” (alt. Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”)
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious” (alt. Vera Farminga, “Up in the Air”)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air” (alt. “Precious”)
    Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Art Direction: “Avatar” (alt. “Sherlock Holmes”)
    Best Cinematography: “Avatar” (alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
    Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria” (alt. “Nine”)
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek” (alt. “The Young Victoria”)
    Best Music (Original Score): “Up” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” (alt. “Take it All” from “Nine”)
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar” (alt. “District 9”)
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Up” (alt. “Fantastic Mr. Fox”)
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The Secret in Their Eyes” (alt. “The White Ribbon”)
    Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove” (alt. “Which Way Home”)
    Best Documentary Short: “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” (alt. “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”)
    Best Short Film (Animated): “Wallace & Gromit in ‘A Matter of Loaf and Death’” (alt. “Logorama”)
    Best Short Film (Live Action): “The Door” (alt. “Instead of Abracadabra”)

  • 6 3-06-2010 at 12:52 pm

    Raffi said...

    Differ in only 3 categories… Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Doc Short (and a few alternates)…

    Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar)
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” (alt. James Cameron, “Avatar”)
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” (alt. Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” (alt. Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”)
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious” (alt. Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air” (alt. “Precious”)
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
    Best Art Direction: “Avatar” (alt. “Sherlock Holmes”)
    Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria” (alt. “Bright Star”)
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek” (alt. “The Young Victoria”)
    Best Music (Original Score): “Up” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” (alt. “Take it All” from “Nine”)
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar” (alt. “District 9”)
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Up” (alt. “Fantastic Mr. Fox”)
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The Secret in Their Eyes” (alt. “The White Ribbon”)
    Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove” (alt. “Which Way Home”)
    Best Documentary Short: “China’s Unnatural Disaster” (alt. “The Last Truck”)
    Best Short Film (Animated): “Wallace & Gromit in ‘A Matter of Loaf and Death’” (alt. “Logorama”)
    Best Short Film (Live Action): “The Door” (alt. “Instead of Abracadabra”)

  • 7 3-06-2010 at 1:08 pm

    Rick said...

    About the fact that no Best Picture nominee has won without a screenplay or acting nomination: Concerning Avatar, the screenplay is obvious, it does not deserve a nomination, however the acting category is tricky. We have heard time and time again, there is a perceived threat amongst the actors with regards to performance/motion capture. Freeman said it himself, he believes it is cartoon. Streep compared it to voice work. I honestly think that Zoe Saldana was not even considered for a nomination (regardless of whether she deserves to be considered or no). Avatar is completely different than pretty much every Best Picture nominee in the history of the Academy. So I’m not entirely sure that Avatar holds up to this precedent. Having said that, I firmly believe The Hurt Locker will win Best Picture. And it deserves to win. If any other film wins I won’t have a problem (with the exception of The Blind Side).

  • 8 3-06-2010 at 1:14 pm

    Ben M. said...

    I have to admit there are categories (picture, actress, original screenplay, foreign language, and a couple of techs) that are giving me pause. I actually have the same feeling I did back in 05 and 98 with the BP race where part of my gut is telling me Avatar will pull ahead of the precursor leader, though as in those years I will go with the safe choice and probably be kicking myself for not going with Avatar if it pulls it off

    Picture: Hurt Locker
    Director: Bigelow
    Actor: Bridges
    Actress: Bullock (might switch to Streep though)
    Supporting Actor: Waltz
    Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
    Original Screenplay: Hurt Locker
    Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
    Editing: Hurt Locker (I feel Hurt Locker gets both this and directing even if Avatar wins the big prize)
    Cinematography: Avatar
    Art Direction: Avatar
    Costume Design: The Young Victoria
    Score: Up
    Song: “The Weary Kind” Crazy Heart
    Make-up: Star Trek
    Sound Mixing: Hurt Locker
    Sound Editing: Avatar
    Visual Effects: Avatar
    Animated Feature: Up
    Documentary Feature: The Cove
    Foreign Language: A Prophet
    Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster
    Live-action Short: The Door
    Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

  • 9 3-06-2010 at 1:26 pm

    Patryk said...

    Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (alt – Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (alt – James Cameron)
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (alt – Jeremy Renner)
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep (alt – Gabourey Sidibe)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (alt – Woody Harrelson)
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (alt – Vera Farmiga)
    Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (alt – The Hurt Locker)
    Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (alt – Precious)
    Cinematography: The Hurt Locker (alt – Avatar)
    Film Editing: The Hurt Locker (alt – Avatar)
    Sound Mixing: Avatar (alt – The Hurt Locker)
    Sound Editing: Avatar (alt – The Hurt Locker)
    Animated Feature: Up (alt – Fantastic Mr. Fox)
    Foreign Language Film: A Prophet (alt – The White Ribbon)
    Art Direction: Avatar (alt – The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus)
    Costume Design: The Young Victoria (alt – Bright Star)
    Visual Effects: Avatar (alt – District 9)
    Makeup: Star Trek (alt – The Young Victoria)
    Original Score: The Hurt Locker (alt – Fantastic Mr. Fox)
    Original Song: “The Weary Kind” (alt – “Loin de Paname”)
    Documentary Feature: Food, Inc. (alt – The Cove)
    Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (alt – Music by Prudence)
    Live Action Short: The New Tenants (alt – Miracle Fish)
    Animated Short: The Lady and the Reaper (alt – French Roast)

  • 10 3-06-2010 at 1:27 pm

    Louis said...

    Am I the only one who thinks Wallace and Gromit are past their prime (other than the DreamWorks execs apparently)?

    Loaf and Death was good but far from best for Park…

    Not to mention that he has no space left on his Oscar shelf.

  • 11 3-06-2010 at 1:34 pm

    Anthony B. said...

    Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
    Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow
    Best Actor – Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress – Sandra Bullock
    Bust Supporting Actor – Christopher Waltz
    Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique
    Best Adapted Screenplay – Up in the Air
    Best Original Screenplay – Inglourious Basterds
    Best Art Direction – Avatar
    Best Cinematography – The Hurt Locker
    Best Costume – The Young Victoria
    Best Film Editing – The Hurt Locker
    Best Make Up – Star Trek
    Best Original Score – Up
    Best Song – The Weary Kind
    Best Sound Editing – Avatar
    Best Sound Mixing – The Hurt Locker
    Best Visual Effects – Avatar
    Best Animated Film – Up
    Best Foreign Language Film – The Secret in Their Eyes
    Best Documentary Feature – The Cove
    Best Documentary Short – The Last Truck
    Best Animated Short – Wallace and Grommit
    Best Live Short – The Door

  • 12 3-06-2010 at 2:22 pm

    Lance said...

    I used to think that “The White Ribbon” was going to easily win best foreign film but after seeing the reviews for “A Prophet” and seeing “Ajami” which I loved, I now see it could go any number of different ways. I can’t wait to see who wins!

  • 13 3-06-2010 at 2:30 pm

    Hugo said...

    Picture: AVATAR
    Director: Bigelow
    Actor: Bridges
    Actress: Streep
    Sup. Actor: Waltz
    Sup. Actress: Mo’nique
    Orig. Screenplay: INGLORIOUS BASTERDS
    Adapt. Screenplay: UP IN THE AIR
    Foreign: A PROPHET
    Animated Feature: UP
    Editing: AVATAR
    Cinematography: AVATAR
    Art Direction: AVATAR
    Score: UP
    Costumes: THE YOUNG VICTORIA
    Sound Mixing: AVATAR
    Sound Editing: AVATAR
    Visual Effects: AVATAR
    Documentary Feature: THE COVE
    Documentary Short: CHINA’S UNNATURAL DISASTER
    Animated Short: A MATTER OF LOAF AND DEATH
    Live Short: THE DOOR
    Make-up: STAR TREK
    Song: “The Weary Kind” from CRAZY HEART

    Final tally:
    AVATAR 7
    INGLORIOUS BASTERDS 2
    CRAZY HEART 1
    UP 2
    THE HURT LOCKER 1
    JULIE AND JULIA 1
    PRECIOUS 1
    STAR TREK 1
    THE YOUNG VICTORIA 1

    INGLORIOUS

  • 14 3-06-2010 at 2:30 pm

    Darbicus said...

    Call me crazy (ignores the obligatory shouts of you’re crazy)…but I’m picking The Blind Side to win Best Picture. It’s a case of heart over head (and a very glum heart at that) in this point, something that I hate to do. But I just have a gut feeling, which has served me well in the past.

  • 15 3-06-2010 at 2:31 pm

    Jeremy Eggleston said...

    Hey Kris—Great predictions! I’m still going with Avatar…it’s got the last minute buzz that will pull it off. Just wanted to say that your site kicks ass, and love your pod chats with Anne. Thanks for your year-round hard work. I’m a daily addict :) Cheers.

  • 16 3-06-2010 at 2:44 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Whoa there, Darb.

  • 17 3-06-2010 at 3:10 pm

    Voland said...

    Many categories are wishful thinking, but nevertheless…

    Best Picture: Inglourious Basterds
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
    Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
    Best Art Direction: Avatar
    Best Cinematography: Inglourious Basterds
    Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
    Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Makeup: Star Trek
    Best Music (Original Score): Up
    Best Music (Original Song): The Weary Kind
    Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
    Best Visual Effects: Avatar
    Best Animated Feature Film: Up
    Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
    Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
    Best Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
    Best Short Film (Animated): Logorama
    Best Short Film (Live Action): The Door

  • 18 3-06-2010 at 3:15 pm

    Darbicus said...

    I know, I know….its a stupid call but…my foreboding sense of doom is acting up, and for some reason I can’t shrug it off like I usually can.

  • 19 3-06-2010 at 3:19 pm

    Darbicus said...

    And the funny thing is that, while I can see The Blind Side winning Best Picture, I can also make a legitimate case for the film being shut out completly, with Gabby Sidibe winning Best Actress over Bullock (I actually think Meryl is in third, at the moment.)

  • 20 3-06-2010 at 3:19 pm

    Louis said...

    With preferential ballots and the possibility of an outbreak of “Number 10” ballot picks for Avatar and Hurt Locker, anybody can win except for District 9.

  • 21 3-06-2010 at 3:23 pm

    Sound Designer Dan said...

    Darb, the Blind Side for best pic? Surely you jest.

    People keep on shitting on Crash because it beat Brokeback but at least that one was deserving of its nomination.

  • 22 3-06-2010 at 3:24 pm

    Louis said...

    PS: Thank you Patrik for not picking Wallace and Gromit. Love them too, but it’s time to move on!

  • 23 3-06-2010 at 3:28 pm

    Darbicus said...

    Actually I’d argue against Crash deserving its nod in that year, but I digress. In my mind, should it win, The Blind Side would be the worst BP win since at least Rain Man, and possibly the worst since Oliver! in 1968.

  • 24 3-06-2010 at 4:54 pm

    Lauren said...

    Actually, I think it would be safe to say that if The Blind Side wins, it would be the worst Best Picture win since the nearly-unwatchable late 20s-early 30s “classics” The Broadway Melody, Cimarron, and Cavalcade. I’d even put the pretty bad The Greatest Show on Earth and Around the World in 80 Days above The Blind Side.

  • 25 3-06-2010 at 5:10 pm

    Mario said...

    Mine are similar, and although I don’t think “Avatar” deserves best picture, I think it’s going to win. And I’m rooting for “A prophet” all the way.

    Best Picture: Avatar
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
    Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
    Best Art Direction: Avatar
    Best Cinematography: Avatar
    Best Costume Design: Coco before Chanel (although “The young Victoria” might win, it’s a toss-up with this one)
    Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Makeup: Star Trek
    Best Music (Original Score): Up
    Best Music (Original Song): The Weary Kind
    Best Sound Editing: Avatar
    Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Visual Effects: Avatar
    Best Animated Feature Film: Up
    Best Foreign Language Film: A PROPHET!!!!!!
    Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
    Best Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
    Best Short Film (Animated): Wallace and Gormit
    Best Short Film (Live Action): The Door

  • 26 3-06-2010 at 5:59 pm

    Kevin said...

    Kevin’s Final Oscar Predictions

    Best Picture – The Hurt Locker
    Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow
    Best Actor – Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress – Sandra Bullock
    Best Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz
    Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique
    Best Adapted Screenplay – Up in the Air
    Best Original Screenplay – The Hurt Locker
    Best Art Direction – Avatar
    Best Cinematography – Avatar
    Best Costume Design – The Young Victoria
    Best Film Editing – The Hurt Locker
    Best Makeup – Star Trek
    Best Original Score – Up
    Best Original Song – Crazy Heart
    Best Sound Editing – Avatar
    Best Sound Mixing – Avatar
    Best Visual Effects – Avatar
    Best Animated Feature Film – Up
    Best Documentary Feature – The Cove
    Best Foreign Language Film – The White Ribbon
    Best Animated Short Film – Wallace & Grommit: A Matter of Loaf and Death
    Best Live Action Short Film – The Door
    Best Documentary Short – The Last Truck

  • 27 3-06-2010 at 7:10 pm

    Jer Bear said...

    I’m still not jumping on the Sandra Bullock band wagon. I still think Meryl Streep is gonna pull through for Best Actress.

  • 28 3-06-2010 at 7:25 pm

    tony d said...

    i’ve got my own predictions up on my page – I really don’t see Bullock winning I think there might be a strong seniment for Streep — if she and Bridges win it will only be the second time that both lead winners would be age 60+, i think theres a strong enough sentiment to award veterans/legends on the same night – thus Streep wins

  • 29 3-06-2010 at 8:49 pm

    Joey said...

    Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” (alt. James Cameron, “Avatar”)
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” (alt. Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” (alt. Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. Christopher Plummer “The Last Station”)
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious” (alt. Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air” (alt. “Precious”)
    Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Art Direction: “Avatar” (alt. “Sherlock Holmes”)
    Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria” (alt. “Bright Star”)
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek” (alt. “The Young Victoria”)
    Best Music (Original Score): “Up” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” (alt. “Down in New Orleans” from The Princess and the Frog)
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar” (alt. “District 9”)
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Up” (alt. “Fantastic Mr. Fox”)
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon” (alt. “The Secret in Their Eyes”)
    Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove” (alt. “Food Inc.”)

  • 30 3-06-2010 at 10:54 pm

    dan said...

    2010 Academy Award Winners

    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
    Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
    Best Art Direction: “Avatar”
    Best Short-Live: “Instead of Abracadabra”
    Best Short-Animated: “A Matter of Loaf and Death”
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up In The Air”
    Best Animated Film: “Up”
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Original Score: “Up”
    Best Original Song: The Weary Kind “Crazy Heart”
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’nique “Precious”
    Best Documentary-Short Subject: “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner”
    Best Documentary: “The Cove”
    Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker” (Too close to call)
    Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds” (Too close to call)
    Best Foreign Film: “Un Prophete”
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock “The Blind Side” (Close race)
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges “Crazy Heart”
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”

  • 31 3-07-2010 at 5:06 am

    Ali E. said...

    Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” (alt. James Cameron, “Avatar”)
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” (alt. Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia” (alt. Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”)
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious” (alt. Vera Farminga, “Up in the Air”)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air” (alt. “Precious”)
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Inglourious Basterds”)
    Best Art Direction: “Avatar” (alt. “Sherlock Holmes”)
    Best Cinematography: “Inglourious Basterds” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria” (alt. “Bright Star”)
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek” (alt. “The Young Victoria”)
    Best Music (Original Score): “Up” (alt. “Avatar”)
    Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” (alt. “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”)
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar” (alt. “The Hurt Locker”)
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar” (alt. “District 9”)
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Up” (alt. “Fantastic Mr. Fox”)
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The Secret in Their Eyes” (alt. “A Prophet”)
    Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove” (alt. “Which Way Home”)
    Best Documentary Short: “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” (alt. “Rabbit à la Berlin”)
    Best Short Film (Animated): “French Roast” (alt. “A Matter of Loaf and Death”)
    Best Short Film (Live Action): “Miracle Fish” (alt. “Instead of Abracadabra”)

  • 32 3-07-2010 at 5:22 am

    Edwin Drood said...

    PICTURE: The Hurt Locker [alt: Inglourious Basterds]
    ACTOR: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
    ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) [alt: Meryl Streep]
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo’Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire)
    DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal) [alt: Inglourious Basterds]
    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Up in the Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)
    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The White Ribbon [alt: A Prophet]
    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The Cove
    ANIMATED FEATURE: Up
    SCORE: Up
    SONG: “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)”
    CINEMATOGRAPHY: Inglourious Basterds [alt: any and/or all the other nominees]
    ART DIRECTION: Avatar [alt: The Young Victoria]
    COSTUME DESIGN: The Young Victoria
    FILM EDITING: The Hurt Locker [alt: Avatar]
    SOUND MIXING: The Hurt Locker [alt: Avatar]
    SOUND EDITING: Avatar
    VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar
    MAKEUP: Star Trek [alt: The Young Victoria]
    LIVE ACTION SHORT: Kavi [alt: any/all]
    DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM PLant [alt: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province]
    ANIMATED SHORT: A Matter of Loaf and Death [alt: any/all]

  • 33 3-07-2010 at 7:46 am

    Ali E. said...

    last minute change in my predictions: Avatar for cinematography… :(

  • 34 3-07-2010 at 10:37 am

    Me. said...

    Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
    Best Directing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique – Precious
    Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
    Best Original Score: Up
    Best Original Song: The Weary Kind – Crazy Heart
    Best Art Direction: Avatar
    Best Cinematography: (still thinking)
    Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
    Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Makeup: Star Trek
    Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Sound Effects Editing: Avatar
    Best Visual Effects: Avatar
    Best Foreign Language Film: The Secret in their Eyes
    Best Animated Feature Film: Up
    Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
    Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death
    Best Documentary Short: (Still thinking)
    Best Live Action Short: (Still thinking)

    Gaaah… short films
    I’m rather confident in the rest even if some are ALWAYS wrong.

    :)

  • 35 3-07-2010 at 1:40 pm

    Jessica said...

    Picking alternates in categories where there are only three nominees shouldn’t be allowed. You’ve picked two-thirds of the nominees as possible winners.

  • 36 3-07-2010 at 1:42 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Jessica: Whatever. There are more important things in the world.

  • 37 3-07-2010 at 1:51 pm

    Jessica said...

    Obviously, there are more important things in the world, which goes without saying since this is a blog about movies and such, but there’s no point in picking more than half the nominees in a category. It looks more like fluffing your predictions so that you can have a higher prediction rate in case of a surprise in those categories.

  • 38 3-07-2010 at 1:57 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I’m just saying, why does it matter? An alternate merely shows what you expect to win in lieu of your prediction. Just because there are three nominees doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be an alternate. There is no “fluffing” of predictions, your prediction rate is what it is. I don’t get the logic.

    No one’s asking you to offer an alternate, at any rate, so be above us all and refrain from doing it if you like.

  • 39 3-07-2010 at 2:11 pm

    Jessica said...

    Did you fail math in school? (And I actually mean that question seriously.)

    If you pick 2 out of the 3 nominees in a category, you give yourself only a 1 out of 3 chance of not picking the winner. A person who picks only 1 nominee out of 3 has a 2 out of 3 chance of not picking the winner. Duh.

  • 40 3-07-2010 at 2:13 pm

    Andrew M said...

    I like you put Gabby as your alt. Kris. I have felt a lot of buzz around her in the past few weeks, and it would great to see her win.