When running through the list of contenders of next year’s Academy Awards, most will agree that there are no safer bets than Heath Ledger picking up a Best Supporting Actor nomination for “The Dark Knight.” He’s been locked in for the best part of the year… no argument, no dissent, no negotiations.
Many people seem to believe that a win is equally inevitable. He’s certainly the one to beat, with a mighty combination of factors in his favour — the sentimental appeal of honouring a sorely-missed star (whom many feel should have won for earlier work), a universally-praised performance well on its way to iconic status, and a clear chance to acknowledge the highest-grossing film of the decade thus far. It helps that the category isn’t exactly teeming with strong contenders this year.
But is he actually unbeatable? Jeff Wells doesn’t think so:
Almost every New York journalist I’ve spoken to over the past week or so seems to believe that “Dark Knight”‘s Heath Ledger is more or less a lock to win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. He’s favored, of course, but my Ray Walston antennae tells me it’s no done deal. I’m not feeling a blitzkreig momentum, and I’m sensing that “Revolutionary Road”‘s Michael Shannon, who appears in only three scenes but delivers a wham-bam effect like no other supporting performance in any other film this year, may have a shot at stealing it away.
Wells isn’t the only one exercising caution. In a slightly curious (to me, at least) take on the frontrunners in the acting categories, Awards Daily’s Sasha Stone runs down the category as follows:
Heath Ledger seems to be the frontrunner but I have my doubts on a posthumous Oscar win, followed by Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road,” Ralph Fiennes for “The Reader” or “Duchess,” Robert Downey, Jr. for “Iron Man” (could win), John Malkovich for “Burn After Reading” or “Changeling.” James Franco or Emile Hirsch or Josh Brolin for “Milk,” can’t decide – this is the year’s most wide open category at the moment.

UPDATE: I was in a bit of a rush earlier, but reading it again in more detail, I suspect these are not the thoughts of an AMPAS member, but Ebert’s own predictions in playfully disguised form. Still an interesting read, but several pinches of salt perhaps required.
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