When running through the list of contenders of next year’s Academy Awards, most will agree that there are no safer bets than Heath Ledger picking up a Best Supporting Actor nomination for “The Dark Knight.” He’s been locked in for the best part of the year… no argument, no dissent, no negotiations.
Many people seem to believe that a win is equally inevitable. He’s certainly the one to beat, with a mighty combination of factors in his favour — the sentimental appeal of honouring a sorely-missed star (whom many feel should have won for earlier work), a universally-praised performance well on its way to iconic status, and a clear chance to acknowledge the highest-grossing film of the decade thus far. It helps that the category isn’t exactly teeming with strong contenders this year.
But is he actually unbeatable? Jeff Wells doesn’t think so:
Almost every New York journalist I’ve spoken to over the past week or so seems to believe that “Dark Knight”‘s Heath Ledger is more or less a lock to win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. He’s favored, of course, but my Ray Walston antennae tells me it’s no done deal. I’m not feeling a blitzkreig momentum, and I’m sensing that “Revolutionary Road”‘s Michael Shannon, who appears in only three scenes but delivers a wham-bam effect like no other supporting performance in any other film this year, may have a shot at stealing it away.
Wells isn’t the only one exercising caution. In a slightly curious (to me, at least) take on the frontrunners in the acting categories, Awards Daily’s Sasha Stone runs down the category as follows:
Heath Ledger seems to be the frontrunner but I have my doubts on a posthumous Oscar win, followed by Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road,” Ralph Fiennes for “The Reader” or “Duchess,” Robert Downey, Jr. for “Iron Man” (could win), John Malkovich for “Burn After Reading” or “Changeling.” James Franco or Emile Hirsch or Josh Brolin for “Milk,” can’t decide – this is the year’s most wide open category at the moment.
That statement about Downey perplexes me for a couple of reasons. He is, of course, the unequivocal lead in “Iron Man,” so surely “Tropic Thunder” is his only pony in this category. And even if he gets a nomination for the latter — itself a bit of a long-shot, in my opinion — I can’t possibly see him winning. (Should the Academy want to honour a showy, broadly entertaining turn in a summer hit, after all, Ledger has it in the bag.)
It’s true that there is hardly an extensive history of posthumous victories at the Oscars, but then it’s not a situation — thankfully — that comes up very often. The clearest parallel scenario is not so much Peter Fimch’s 1976 win, as James Dean’s two consecutive posthumous nods in the 1950’s. He lost both times, of course — on the second occasion, to the hardly-formidable Yul Brynner. But using fifty year-old history isn’t terribly helpful, either. AMPAS is a different animal these days. Every case is an individual one.
If Ledger’s hold on the award does slip, it would be from sheer voter fatigue. Academy members aren’t always fond of long-foregone conclusions. Neither do they particularly like being made to feel obliged to vote in a certain direction. Lauren Bacall’s stunning 1996 loss to Juliette Binoche is proof of both points.
I’m not ruling out the possibility of Ledger losing, but I think it would have to be a pretty spectacular performance to pull off the upset. Looking at the potential spoilers, only Shannon seems to me to have what it takes — I haven’t seen the film yet, but it’s a sensational role, he’s a superb young actor, and the near-unanimous verdict so far is that he knocks it out the park. On the down side, he’s not a very familiar name yet. However, if “Revolutionary Road” proves to be an awards frontrunner, I can envision him riding the momentum to victory.
Of course, the Academy would likely face an almighty amount of flak if they bypass Ledger. But then they’re no strangers to flak. I would still put my money on Ledger, but with the Oscars, it’s when people start taking things as a given that the trouble starts.
Comments
32 responses to “Ledger: is it written?”
Heath Ledger is this year’s Javier Bardem. He’s created an iconic role.He’ll ride the wave all the way to the Oscars.
It would be pure insanity to not give it to Heath Ledger for that performance. It’s the best performance of the year period, lead or supporting, across all 4 acting categories.
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This is like the media telling us that Hillary and Barack Obama loathe each other, which isn’t the least bit true. There is no story here. Ledger’s hold on the award will not slip. Sorry, folks, but the only drama in the best supporting actor category will be when Ledger is announced the winner.
I think all these doubts are just reflections of a certain boredom with the category. I think Ledger takes it handily. Michael Shannon is great, but a nomination will be difficult as it is. And it isn’t the capital “S” Story that Ledger has going for him, both on and off the screen.
I wonder if Michelle Williams would accept the Oscar for him or if that would be too much. But I’m sure if he were to win AMPAS would have to figure out who’s going to accept his Oscar, or just what to do, right?
[…] Marvin on: Ledger: is it written? […]
Agreed Kris, there is no real contender here to threaten Ledger. Pre-season nonsense if you ask me.
I doubt Williams would want to accept for Ledger, given that they’d split up before his death. I think someone involved with TDK — Nolan or one of his co-stars — would be the best solution.
I agree Ledger has this pretty much locked up. Just speculating.
Kris hit on this notion also, but personally I don’t see anything wrong with unofficially considering someone a winner at this point in the year. When a performance is that emotionally charged and charismatic without being whimsical, then it more than deserves to be rewarded.
The only true race here is our need to create one.
Meant to say that the only true race here COMES out of our need to create one. Sorry
Shannon is definitely the dark horse but it’s all Ledger. He will win because:
-It will make up for his loss for ‘Brokeback Mountain.’
-They want to honor one of our brightest talents, who left us in his prime.
-They need to give SOMETHING to ‘The Dark Knight.’
and, oh yeah,
It’s the year’s best performance, hands down.
i don’t see any reason not to and i don’t think anyone can come up with a liable reason. i don’t mean someone is better than him cause that simply isn’t true. i mean one that downplays ledger to win. and even then, no one can come up with a reason. i already consider him the winner justt like everybody did javier bardem last year. i personally think that the person that should accept his award shouldn’t be someone from the dark knight because they didn’t know him “well enough”. and i don’t think that michelle williams should get it because she isn’t too familiar to the oscars. i think it should be someone close to him inside and outside of film and ho is known to the oscar voters and audience. which is only one person, his best friend, the godfather of matilda: jake gyllenhaal.
I think it is important to remember that the performance is by far, BY FAR, the single most acclaimed performance of the year — is there anything else in this category that even comes close? Having not seen everything yet (those unreleased) it is not fair to claim him a lock, but of those films released, no supporting performance even comes close — watching him in anything else, including his masterful Oscar deserving turn in “Brokeback Mountain” and can you honestly believe it is the same actor? I think the Oscar will go to Ledger, because at this writing he deserves it, and I will be stunned if there is another performance in this category as strong as his…could happen, but doubtful.
I assume that Ledger’s father would accept the award.
But seriously, he has the reviews, the buzz, public interest, and his tragic death. For another performance to equal the reviews alone in this category, much less all of the other factors that are supporting a win, would be insurmountable.
Talk of another winner is just the result of a dry spell of supporting roles. Cruz and Ledger, favorites back in August, are having no problem clinging to leads with every passing box office and critical flop.
I’d hate to be be the poor SOB that usurps the Oscar from Ledger. A billion dollars worth of ticketholders are surely pining for him to win and would be less than pleased if some undeserving thespian tarnishes the memory of Ledger by winning. Cynically speaking, a win for Ledger would assist with ratings.
Zan, Cruz’s position isn’t as secure as Ledger’s. I don’t think she’ll win…
okay, Ledger was awesome in Dark Knight and his death was a tragedy, but let’s keep things in perspective: he was IN NO WAY better than Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Capote” (an, in my opinion, not better than David Strathairn in “Good Night and Good Luck”). Like I said, it was a real tragedy, but c’mon, don’t let sentiment cloud your judgement.
Agreed, Alex. I think taraji p henson takes it .
Ledger’s performance is among the greatest performances in cinema–in my opinion, THE greatest–because he utterly disappeared into the role. It’s powerhouse when he’s not talking, tour de force when he is.
Andre, comparing performances from 2008 to 2005 is redundant. Sentiment has nothing to do with it. He simply gave a masterful performance every time he was on screen.
Oscar nominations are announced on January 22nd, the anniversary of Ledger’s death. Surely that’ll be THE story through the voting period.
Andre, the truth is that Ledger was the biggest competition for Hoffman had in 2005, look bakc at the predictions, (I think he might have been better), and the voters remember that. Everyone knew that they were the only two options, and that will play in voters minds. I’m not even arguing with you. I like Good Night. I liked it better, but everyone knew that Hoffman was going to win.
Heath Ledger does not deserve to win an oscar for his portrayal of the Joker. It is little more than a hammed up comic book villian and the only reason that he is a front runner is because of his death. If you ask me Robert Downey Jr.’s performace in Tropic Thunder displayed much more bravery and skill then Ledger could have even hoped to accomplish. He is going to win because of overwhelming sentiment. I think that the academy should leave the tribute at a nomination alone, that way his legacy will not be tarnished and all parties will be satisfied.
Robin you are wrong. He is no “hammed up comic book villain”. He’s a downright frightening psychopath. The best ever portrayed on screen since Hannibal Lecter.
^^
Robin, the ‘hammed up comic book villain’ you must be talking about must’ve been Jack Nicholson’s version of the Joker. Ledger’s no hammed up villain. He’s someone you’ll laugh at and be afraid of. And I agree with Jonathan Spuij. I don’t think we’ve ever had a villain as psychotic and as entertaining since Hannibal Lecter graced our screens.
Yes, I think that Heath Ledger should win. His performance is critically-acclaimed, unconventional, and groundbreaking–and I’ll stop at that hyperbole. I also agree that Michael Shannon seems to be his biggest chance for a competition, and I hope I get to see Revolutionary Road soon to confirm that. I’ll have to agree with Guy, the attention has to wind down a bit–make that a lot–or else the Academy might vote otherwise. You know how it likes to disappoint as many people as possible.
Moving away from a cynical point of view, I think the Academy, sentiment or no sentiment, does realize that Ledger’s performance eclipses the events in his personal life or his past performances that it failed to recognize, and on the basis of his outing as the Joker, can give him the award. If they don’t… well, I’d wait for the Internet to explode with the flak.
At this point, talk of Ledger’s Oscar is becoming tedious, and he doesn’t need it anyway, although of course he deserves it. James Dean comes to mind at this point, and think about it… it’s not like people lost respect for James Dean just because he didn’t win an Oscar for any of his (posthumous) nominations.
That is all.
If the Academy denies Ledger the Oscar, it should be prepared for a revolt unseen since the one following the Brokeback Mountain Best Picture snub a few years back. Unlike then though, this time it won’t just be disenchanted critics and angry gays dissenting; a lot of people have seen The Dark Knight, and the passion stirred in them by Ledger’s performance and death could very easily turn into anger, directed virulently at the Academy.
[…] seen yet…and I’ve seen a few. I wouldn’t place a bet on anything, even perceived shoo-ins. What’s more, to have such an “off” year like this in the midst of the […]
To Robin:
Although we may not know the true answer, it does make me mad when someone says “Heath is getting the nom because of his death”. As if it’s the ONLY reason in the world. His death may or may not play a role IF he gets the nom, but don’t insult the intelligence of others by stating it as the lone fact.
By the way, I love Robert Downey Jr, but how is his role any more brave than Ledger’s? Because of the ‘black face’ approach? He did a good job, no doubt, but it’s not any more braver.
Robin, I assure you 90% of the people who saw Ledger’s tour-de-force performance (the greatest film villain since Hannibal Lecter, HANDS DOWN!) will NOT be satisfied with just a nomination, and it has JACK S*** to do with his death. It is because it’s the performance of the year. A brilliant, unpredictable, haunting, complex monster, just amazing work all-around. Can’t remember when was the last time an actor took so many risks in a role, in terms of how to play a character, yet ALL OF THEM payed up.
And it’s absolutely retarded (or maybe I should say “fully retarded”, in honor of your beloved Kirk Lazarus) to say a win would tarnish his memory. His work in BBM and TDK (two of the ten greatest performances of the decade, if you ask me, and two of the 100 greatest performances of all-time) has cemented his legacy as a brilliant, electric, unpredictable, infintely promising young talent who left to early, but with a body of work most actors can’t achieve by the time they hit middle age. And a win would just be seen as a just, appropriate, and wholly deserved honor to his 2nd tour-de-force (the fact they ROBBED HIM for the first will play more into it than his death, imo).
And Downey Jr.’s performance DOES merit a nomination, one of the greatest comedic performances for the ages, but Ãt’s NOT better than Ledger’s. A terrific comic turn, but does not have the impact on you that Ledger’s does.
Oh, and I do NOT believe Ledger was hammy in any way, shape or form, like Eunice said you must be thinking of Nicholson’s joker, but if you’re going to call it that, then Downey’s has to be considered hammy as well!
[…] Onto surer things, we wondered whether Heath Ledger is the inevitable winner of this year’s Best Supporting Actor Oscar. […]
After seeing Brolin in Milk, I’m not too certain. I liked Ledger, but it was slightly too cartoonish for my taste. Brolin was nothing short of phenomenal in the film. He portrayed all of the insecurities of a very insecure dude. Plus, he was robbed last year, so this is a great chance for the academy to salvage that mistake.
[…] you don’t want to come across as taking advantage of Ledger’s death. But other than idiot Terry Gilliam, I don’t think anyone really thinks that is happening or has happened. It’s been a […]