In Contention

Author: Guy Lodge

  • December winner predictions, part 2: Yours and mine

    Melanie Laurent in Inglourious BasterdsAs I like to do when Kris boldly throws out a set of winner predictions, I thought I’d follow up with an indication of which way our readers are leaning — as well as an update of my own previous guesses.

    The conclusion: well, what a difference seven weeks makes. Of course, it’s inevitable that things would go topsy-turvy in this of all months, when multiple question marks have been answered — some becoming unexpectedly insistent exclamation marks in the process.

    Still, I’m surprised by how dramatically my own picks have shifted, largely due to my overestimation of “Precious”‘s pop-culture sway, and my misplaced hunch that “Avatar” would disappoint. (Well, it disappointed me, but that’s hardly the deal-breaker I’d like it to be.) Today, I’m not even predicting a nomination for the man I (rather rashly) backed to win Best Director last month … such is the fickle nature of the game.

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  • “Dull, dull, dull”

    As is usually the case when British outlets offer Oscar analysis, there are few fresh insights to be found in Jeremy Kay’s assessment of the current race in today’s Guardian.

    Well, there is his unusual offhand assertion that “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and “Star Trek” are locked-in Best Picture nominees, with “Julie & Julia” and “The Blind Side” jostling for slot #10. (Well, it can’t eventually be the same 10 titles everyone else is predicting, can it? Can it?)

    He does, however, offer the kind of forthright, subjective opinions on the contenders that some Oscar prognosticators shy away from, as when he witheringly dismisses Gabourey Sidibe in favor of Abbie Cornish.

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  • “Happy Christmas your arse, I pray God it’s our last.”

    Except not, because I’ve had a pretty darn lovely Christmas Day here in the Irish countryside: snow on the window ledge, more food and champagne than is medically advisable, and nothing ahead of me but the Boxing Day cricket test on TV and hours of free time to ponder my best-of-decade list.

    Hope your day has given you equal cause for contentment. For now, I give you the song without which no Christmas is really complete. Just in case you missed it.

  • Things of beauty: Guy’s best of 2009

    Julianne Moore and Colin Firth in A Single ManThe year of the woman. The year of animation. The year of science-fiction. Depending on who you read (and believe), the final year of the decade has been an awful lot of things.

    If you’re with Kris, it’s also the best cinematic year of the last ten. If you’re with an awful lot of others, it’s quite the opposite. I’ll stop short of rewriting the first page of “A Tale of Two Cities,” but suffice to say it’s been different things to different people.

    What kind of year has it been for me? I think I’ll need another year to figure that out in detail. But as I compiled the list you’re about to read, I happily concluded that it’s been, at the very least, a good one: the 25 titles gathered here were jotted down with minimal brain-racking, with still more fighting from the sidelines.

    None of them are grudging inclusions, either: I sincerely liked most of these titles too much to allow room for popular or critical phenomena that are worthy of respect, but nonetheless didn’t connect with me personally. There was a sufficient range of quality work in 2009 (following a lean 2008) that any film lover could afford to construct his own playlist of future treasures without resorting to consensus.

    Before we begin, a note on the construction of the list. In addition to my Top 10, there are 15 honorable mentions here, five of them singled out for extra consideration. Some of you will quibble that I opt to include international or festival releases that have yet to surface in the U.S.

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  • ‘Hurt Locker’ sweeps Chicago critics’ awards

    Sorry we’re a bit late getting round to this — as you know, Kris and I are in holiday mode this week. Anyway, while the Chicago Film Critics’ Association threw some curveballs in their nominations list, their winners stuck mostly to the status quo.

    When the “status quo,” however, is one of my favorite films of the year, you won’t hear me complaining. The pull of “The Hurt Locker” proved so powerful in the Windy City that it won every category in which it was shortlisted, with writer Mark Boal taking his first prize of the season. Carey Mulligan, meanwhile, was a double winner, beating Gabourey Sidibe in both the actress and newcomer races.

    Full list of winners after the cut; CFCA member Roger Ebert’s report is here.

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  • ‘An Education’ leads London Critics’ award noms

    The London Film Critics’ Circle awards have their cake and eat it by having separate British film categories, in addition to some general fields where the Brits also compete. So UK productions invariably lead the field.

    Allowing for that and other oddities, this is a very pleasing list for the most part. “An Education” seals its status as this year’s British title of choice, with a leading seven nods; “Fish Tank” is close behind, with six. (I think we can count on the former triumphing at the BAFTAs next year.)

    The abundant love for “A Prophet” is probably the most unusual (and exciting) aspect here, while I’m also thrilled to see mentions for Michael Fassbender, Rosamund Pike and Michael Stuhlbarg, among others. (Also interesting: Mo’Nique and Vera Farmiga both cropping up in the lead actress category, with their female co-stars nowhere to be seen.)

    FILM OF THE YEAR
    “Avatar”
    “The Hurt Locker”
    “A Prophet”
    “Up in the Air”
    “The White Ribbon”

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  • Listomania

    Assorted technical problems at my rustic holiday base in Ireland have put me a whole day behind schedule — so my Best of 2009 list will land tomorrow, in lieu of a Long Shot column. With any luck, a best-of-decade collective will follow sometime before the year is out.

    In the meantime, you have Kris’s own rather brilliant 2000s retrospective to keep you entertained. À bientôt.

  • John Woo to receive career award at Venice 2010

    John WooSeems a bit early to be thinking about such matters, given that the 2010 Venice Film Festival is not until September 1, but here’s an early Christmas present for veteran Chinese action master John Woo.

    He will receive the Lifetime Achievement Award at the festival, one year after John Lasseter and the Pixar crew received the same honor. (For an artsy festival, this award is taking an interestingly populist bent of late.) Hopefully, I’ll be on the Lido again to observe first-hand.

    The news caps a reasonably prominent year for Woo, whose latest, “Red Cliff,” has a number of admirers. I personally think he has yet to top “Face/Off,” but maybe that’s my inner 14 year-old talking. Press release after the cut.

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  • WEEKLY WRAP: Precursor avalanche, best of 2009

    Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker• Kris wrapped up 2009 with his take on the year’s best films, also offering his own preferred nominees and winners in a range of categories. (I’ll chime in next week.)

    • “Up in the Air” led this year’s pack of Golden Globe nominees.

    • It also joined “Precious” and “Inglourious Basterds” at the head of the pack in the SAG nominations — while missing out in their top race.

    • “The Hurt Locker” emerged as this year’s critics’ favorite, earning top honors from a host of groups, including the two biggest: the NYFCC and the LAFCA.

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  • Check the figures

    Russell Crowe in A Beautiful MindA few things puzzled me about this Variety piece in which Iain Blair takes on a familiar chestnut of a topic: the box-office divide between public favorites and Oscar contenders.

    The first is that he considers the “disparity between art and commerce” to be “accelerating” — a curious argument to make at a time when “Avatar,” “Up” and “Inglourious Basterds” (none of which Blair mentions) look likely to feature on the Best Picture list. Blair’s argument is well-tailored to last year’s Oscar race, but reads somewhat stale now.

    The second is, well, this entire paragraph:

    Sure, “Titanic” grabbed a ton of Oscars and racked up the biggest box office in history. But more recent critically acclaimed best picture winners such as “Shakespeare in Love,” “A Beautiful Mind” and “Chicago” did middling to poor business. And “Crash” and “The English Patient” simply crashed and, well, burned at the box office.

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  • Sell it, Sig

    Now a UK cinema-going institution, this series of Orange cellphone ads consistently pokes fun at the career doldrums of Hollywood has-beens — so it’s ironic that their newest features a star of the season’s biggest film. Anyway, Sigourney Weaver is the latest name to the long line of good sports, from Anjelica Huston to Rob Lowe.

  • INTERVIEW: Jane Campion

    Jane CampionJane Campion’s laugh comes as a rather lovely surprise: full, throaty and often directed at herself, it betrays a personality more robust, mischievous even, than one might surmise from her fragile, often solemn films. It’s a disconnect she cheerfully acknowledges, and credits in part to her collaborators.

    “As a filmmaker, it helps me to be around young people,” she says, referring to the unusually youthful cast and crew of “Bright Star,” her exquisite meditation on first love, nature and poetry – via the star-crossed affair of John Keats and his teenaged lover Fanny Brawne.

    “People in their twenties can be quite moody and quiet, and not in a bad way – they know how to be alone with their thoughts. People my age tend to blab on a bit without thinking, like I’m doing now.”

    She laughs again. If that’s a frequent occurrence over the course of our phone conversation, it could be because Campion is as relaxed and content as she has ever been in her career. Her first feature since 2003’s harshly-received erotic thriller “In the Cut,” “Bright Star” has placed the New Zealander back in critics’ good graces, even if it looks increasingly unlikely to emulate the Oscar success of her 1993 breakthrough “The Piano.”

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  • SAG predictions, redux

    Ben Foster in The MessengerKris is too smart to go there but, undeterred by my less-than-stellar Globes showing, I will.

    Principally, I admit, because I feel like going on record with my odd conviction that “The Messenger” will claim four nods. This is the film’s moment to pounce, I think.

    My biggest wish for the morning? For an unexpected (and deserving) name to crop up in that still-wild final Best Actress spot. (Sidebar: does the Best Stunt Ensemble award still exist? Why is no one predicting it?)

    What are the crazy voices in your head telling you? My guesses after the cut.

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  • THE LONG SHOT: The next best thing

    Diane Kruger in Inglourious BasterdsAs the season hits its stride, and precursors turn murky perceptions of pack leaders and stragglers into harder realities, I find myself wondering how I would fill out my ballot if I were an Academy member.

    That’s not the same as wondering what I would fill my ballot with – as Kris just did today. Unlike many voters in the Academy and precursor ranks alike, who seemingly run out of ideas two slots in (“Hmm, did I see ten movies this year?”) and then reach for the names they’ve heard everyone else mention, I have no shortage of worthy suggestions for inclusion, whether people are talking about them or not.

    No, I’m referring to the how, the method, the strategy. Is it as simple as jotting down the films and individual achievements one admired most over the past 12 months? In a perfect world, yes. But do considerations of which of one’s favorites – and, indeed, least favorites – pose a threat in the race necessitate some compromise?

    Were I an Academy voter, in other words, would I give “35 Shots of Rum” one of my Best Picture slots, knowing full well it doesn’t having a snowball’s chance of a nomination? Or would I be a little craftier, and give the slot to “The Messenger” – a fine film that I love less, but that has slightly more hope of knocking something truly undeserving from the Oscar lineup?

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  • ‘Wild Things,’ ‘Up in the Air’ lead Chicago crix nods

    Where the Wild Things AreNormally, I’m against critics’ groups bothering with nominations. Just cut the crap and give us your picks — you’re not that anticipated, after all.

    But I’ll make an exception this year for the Chicago Film Critics Association, if only because it allows them to shine a light on some names that have been lost amid the consensus of critics’ prizes so far. There are some pleasantly left-field picks here, beginning with a co-leading six bids, Best Picture and Director included, for “Where the Wild Things Are.”

    “A Serious Man” also makes the Best Picture cut, while “Precious” is a surprising omission. (Is it losing momentum?) Hearty cheers, too, for the mentions of Matt Damon (for the right film, this time) and — finally — “Bright Star”‘s Abbie Cornish and Greig Fraser. Still no Tilda Swinton, but I’m letting that one go.

    Full list of nominees (props to AwardsDaily) after the cut.

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  • ‘Hurt Locker,’ ‘Basterds’ crack Cahiers du Cinéma list

    Inglourious BasterdsAll cinéastes know that the annual Top 10 issued by Cahiers du Cinéma is pretty much the ne plus ultra of critics’ lists. The legendary French film magazine has taste that veers from the rigorously auteurist (recent list-toppers include “Redacted,” “Tropical Malady” and “Paranoid Park”) to the frankly perverse (“Lady in the Water” made the 2006 list).

    So when a comparatively mainstream Oscar frontrunner like “The Hurt Locker” crops up on this year’s Cahiers list, you know it officially taken the mantle of this year’s across-the-board critical darling.

    This year’s collective is a typically idiosyncratic affair, with an especially Gallic flavor: Alain Resnais tops the list, while eternally French-favored Yanks Tarantino and Eastwood feature highly.

    Their Top 10 is after the cut (thanks to Auteurs Daily for the tip).

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  • ‘Shutter Island’ to premiere at Berlin fest

    Leonardo DiCaprio and Michelle Williams in Shutter IslandDoesn’t it feel like an eternity ago that we were talking about the possibilities for “Shutter Island” in this year’s Oscar race? I’m still sulking, frankly.

    Still, compensation for the delay arrives in the shape of some European festival prestige: Martin Scorsese’s adaptation of Dennis Lehane’s Gothic thriller will play out of competition at the 60th Berlin International Film Festival in February.

    Of course, Berlin audiences won’t be the first to lay eyes on the film: it recently had a “surprise” screening at Butt-Numb-a-Thon in Texas. Impressions are scattered around the net if you care to seek them.

    Also in the lineup is Roman Polanski’s latest, “The Ghost Writer” — a political thriller adapted from a Robert Harris novel, starring Ewan McGregor and Pierce Brosnan. Unlike Scorsese’s film, Polanski’s will be in contention for the Golden Bear.

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  • Predicting the Golden Globes

    Michelle Pfeiffer in CheriOK, you know the drill. Have at it in the comments section. My best guesses below — remember, it wouldn’t be the Globes without a wacky pick or two, and a stunning snub. (Remember “Milk?”)

    Who will be this year’s Tom Cruise in “Tropic Thunder?” And why do I have this weird feeling that “Precious” isn’t up their alley … but Mariah Carey is?

    Best Picture (Drama)
    “An Education”
    “The Hurt Locker”
    “Inglourious Basterds”
    “Invictus”
    “Up in the Air”

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