In Contention

Tag: Off the Carpet

  • OFF THE CARPET: Take a deep breath…

    George Clooney in Up in the AirThe calm before the storm is beginning to subside.  Can you sense it?

    By the end of the week, the Venice and Telluride fests will be underway.  A week later, Toronto will weigh in.  When the smoke settles in roughly three weeks, the season will suddenly be a lot clearer…and yet so much of it will remain a mystery as latter year hopefuls limp (or stomp) into the fray in November and December.

    Yes, the season is upon us.  And while studios continue to think over the true value of Oscar notices, especially in a widened playing field, business marches on as usual.  Venice will tell the tale for efforts like “The Men Who Stare at Goats,” “The Informant!,” and “Capitalism: A Love Story,” while Telluride could make or break the hopes of films such as “The Road” and “Up in the Air.”

    Some overlap will go down in Toronto, but the most anticipated first-look there will likely be the Coen brothers’ “A Serious Man.”  Meanwhile, distributors might be looking to beef up their schedules with films like “Creation” and “Leaves of Grass” looking for buyers.  But for those with ponies primed and ready, these festivals are very much the starting gun for awards runs, as ever.

    So before the madness ensues, we get one more stab in the dark.  But given the perceived road ahead, it seems to me that films with a healthy pre-season awards profile going into the fall are in pretty good shape as it is.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Taking the temperature

    Jeremy Renner in The Hurt LockerIt’s somewhat surprising that our year-in-advance Oscar coverage is only three months old.  That now ancient list of predictions seems so long ago, and yet, even with Cannes behind us and this or that indication of a few of the contenders, I have no idea how to offer an educated update beyond general housekeeping.  The season, it seems, will remain elusive for just a little while longer.

    Here’s what we know: Critics didn’t respond to Universal’s “The Boat That Rocked” across the pond.  But the Brits hardly have a soft spot for Richard Curtis.  Along similar lines, Stephen Frears’s “Chéri” hasn’t exactly inspired either.  But both films, from awards savvy studios, could find a second wind when they eventually open Stateside.

    The biggest Oscar hopeful to emerge from this year’s Cannes fest is, in my opinion, Jane Campion’s “Bright Star.”  Heralded in some quarters as a return to form for the director, and snatched up by the intrepid Bob Berney (formerly of Picturehouse and now closing in on a name for his distribution company with partner Bill Polhad), the film could be a nominations hog, anywhere from six to 10 possibilities.  You’ll note all of my ponderings in that regard in the latest chart update below.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Come together, right now

    Dev Patel in Slumdog MillionaireAnyone ready for it to all be over?

    For me, it hasn’t been a painful Oscar season, despite what I may have let on throughout the last five months. After all, my favorite film is and has been primed for the big win since November (well, since we said it was in November…everyone soon followed suit). And for that, I can’t be agitated, can I?

    Obviously I can’t speak for the troops over on Melrose. “Slumdog Millionaire” has to be the worst thing to happen to a lot of those hard-working folks. Blood must be boiling.

    And who can blame them?  It really just sucks when the perfect storm conspires against you. Old timey Hollywood mixed with state of the art digital artistry just hasn’t been enough for industry filmgoers this season. The economy, the new president, the zeitgeist, it was all too much. Fox Searchlight finally moved out of its perennial role as underdog and became the schoolyard bully.

    Of course, it would be nothing more than an upset if “Slumdog” failed to take the prize at this point. And really, besides a scattered few, who’s predicting that with any confidence?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Enough foreplay

    WALL-EWhat else is there to say?  Tomorrow we’ll have a new president and the last eight years will, hopefully, start to fade away.  In four days we’ll have a fresh slate of Oscar nominees and the last four months of awards speculation will suddenly be a distant memory.  The big wheel keeps on turning.

    I don’t know what else can be added to the conversation at this point that hasn’t been mulled over a million times already.  I do know, as my final set of Oscar predictions will reflect, that this years seems to be given to the safe bet more than any other in recent memory.  But I also know the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is a difficult group of people to corner.  There are always surprises.

    As I look over the landscape of the 2008-2009 season, I find myself seeking out those blind-side possibilities.  No one saw “City of God” coming four times over in 2003.  Hardly anyone expected Tommy Lee Jones to snatch a nomination last year after failing to pop up throughout the precursor season.  And certainly, no one banked on a “Dreamgirls” snub in 2006.

    But these things happen.  I’ll lay out a set of my own left-field possibilities on Wednesday, since this year’s inauguration proceedings have kept the weekly Oscar column somewhat removed from the actual announcement (generally I write this the day before), but today I thought I’d end phase one with a few question marks I feel it necessary to punctuate.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: From the horse’s mouth

    Kate Winslet at the 66th Annual Golden Globe AwardsThe last two weeks have been a leaf blower to the debris an awards season can accumulate.  Individuals with some real say in the ultimate Oscar picture have finally gone on the record, painting a rather clear picture of the industry’s favorite films of 2008.

    But before diving into the realities of the various guild announcements, it is probably worth touching upon the gleeful diversions of the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Golden Globe Awards.

    These are the two culminating critics soirees, capping off the annual critical kudos sprint through December and early January.  Both proudly declare themselves Oscar harbingers but only one seems to find itself decided from a critical mindset (even if that mindset is still warped by pegging a zeitgeist).  The other is, as always, a drunken time amongst industry friends that goes its own way.

    But dare I say it, this year the HFPA may have actually raised the bar for the Academy.  After years of embarrassing nominations announcements and sometimes bewildering winner choices, the group awarded a slate of contenders last night that stuck out as noble and, shockingly, novel.

    Can the Academy’s membership reach out to Mickey Rourke and meet him half way like he has clearly done this season to an industry that has shunned him for so many years?  Can they find a way to spread the kudos love while an inevitable “Slumdog” sweep pushes through the evening of February 22?

    Moreover, can AMPAS have the balls to follow in the HFPA’s footsteps with a double win for Kate Winslet, arguably deserving this year and a move that would be inarguable as a hell of an apology for years of Oscar losses?  The actress joined Sigourney Weaver last night as one of only two actresses to win a pair of Golden Globe awards for film performances in one evening.  Your move, Oscar.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Memo to the Academy

    The Academy Awards–MEMO–

    TO: Members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences
    FROM: Kristopher Tapley

    RE: The ballot you recently received

    Ladies and gentleman,

    As you sit to ponder the year’s best in your various fields of professional expertise, you might find yourself strong-armed into the consensus view 2008’s film product has been whittled down to over the last 30 days.  You might even find yourself at a loss, cramming as much as you can after a year of constantly working with nary a moment to spare a trip to the cinema.  Such last minute jitters can yield an unconsidered and, certainly, lackadaisical approach to your annual responsibilities as AMPAS members.  But I implore you to take your time with this, be measured, and above all, take pen to paper with a level of seriousness.

    While I would never presume to tell you how to go about filling in your respective ballots, I hope you don’t find it too bold of me to offer a few closing words of encouragement and suggestion as we close the book on 2008.  The glut of film awards season fades into a numbing hum you’d perhaps rather ignore until the holidays have run their course, so come back to these words at a later date if you must.  They merely represent the humble opinion of one passionate film lover who believes in the potential of your organization and the ideals it stands for.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: A season less ordinary…or is it?

    (from left) Michael Caine, Heath Ledger and Christian Bale in The Dark KnightThe critics have nearly concluded their annual kudos dish.  The first guild has spoken, giving us some sliver of insight into what Academy members might think of the 2008-2009 Oscar season.  With such a thin crop of contenders, the tome has been “broad, but shallow, playing field,” leaving the opportunity for multiple films to find their champions and even the least AMPAS-friendly of products to find room at the table.

    So as we inch toward year’s end, what have we learned?  When it comes to the usual blend, the Academy will find a way.

    A scenario has been kicking around inside my head for some time that, like one concerned reader in another post, scares me to death.  It is pretty much a done deal for “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” two refreshingly different films where AMPAS tastes are concerned, but paradoxically boring with the knowledge that there is passion elsewhere, seemingly too intimidated to rear its head.

    “Frost/Nixon” and “Milk” are assured after that, it seems, two films cut from the AMPAS cloth from a director who knows that cloth well and one who only finds Academy acceptance when he goes there, respectively.  After that, “the knowledge” has become the truly exciting spark of the season: can a populist film such as “The Dark Knight” or “WALL-E” find the right base of passion to push through for a Best Picture nomination?

    I fear we may have all gotten carried away with ourselves and our love of these films, whether you fall on one side or both, because we’re ignoring AMPAS tendency at our own peril.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Insert witty Oscar column headline here

    Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThis year’s Oscar season is sapping the creativity from my bones.  Perhaps it’s foolish to come to this space every week and offer a full-blown column.  Sometimes there isn’t much to talk about.  This year, however, the things we do have to talk about don’t seem worth talking about.

    “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” for instance, was the most anticipated film of the season.  But three days after finally seeing the film, I’m not feeling the resonance I anticipated.  The film is a cinematic marvel, a stroke of screenwriting brilliance and a massive leap forward across an array of technical achievements.  But it hasn’t captured my imagination like I thought it would.

    Your guess is as good as mine on that one.

    “The Reader” finally screened to the press at large yesterday, both here in Los Angeles and in the Big Apple.  The buzz leading up to the big reveal was that, hey, this might be a bigger contender than we anticipated.  But personally speaking, the result is almost an afterthought — no lingering, no spirited embrace of the film’s themes and story particulars.  Just another film.

    So, is it just me, or is the soft landing of so many of the year’s perceived heavies beginning to tangibly expose 2008 as the Oscar low point we all thought it would become?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Getting to know you

    Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet in Revolutionary RoadThis is the first season I can think of, at least since I’ve been covering this crazy beat on the west coast, that studios have become so terrified by the media that guild screenings are preempting press screenings with such consistency.

    Some have whined about “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” screening for SAG 10 days before the media at large gets a look (with the usual brand of entitlement that turns the stomach).  Others actually snuck into the screening, surely freaking out a few publicists desperate to unfold the film at their own pace (and the pace dictated by the meticulous David Fincher).  I’m just waiting.

    Plenty have taken the altered ending story behind “Australia,” not to mention the film being held from the press until two weeks before it opens, as a sign that the movie is in trouble.  I’m just waiting.

    Lots of anticipation has suddenly been blown into “The Reader”‘s previously deflated balloon.  I’m just waiting.

    But I have to say, seeing a couple of the year’s contenders last week with big industry audiences proved to be just the breath of fresh air this incredibly stifling season needed.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Holding back

    Meryl Streep in SoubtEvery Oscar season is about managing expectations. Studios, of course, want to keep the murmurs to a minimum whether they have the goods or not because the peril of peaking too early is just as bad as the sting of negative word-of-mouth. Similarly, being “the one to beat” sets a film up to rise to an unfair occasion rather than coming to the table fresh.

    Holding back is a tradition and is even one of two philosophies on the awards season sell. There are those who’ll tell you that, if you have a great movie, you should show it and show it proudly. The other side of the equation believes in the manipulation of when and where opinion will trickle out. It seems every year a train wreck of sorts occurs, and this year, that train wreck was obviously “Frost/Nixon.”

    After landing in London to some mediocre reviews (no one at this site, by the way, ever said the film was bombing with critics across the board), should Universal Pictures have been particularly surprised? Ron Howard, America’s white-bread filmmaking standard exhibiting to the chilly British disposition? It wasn’t going to be a rapturous reception, and with the film having been completed for months on end, holding back until the London festival to give anyone a sanctioned peek raised eyebrows long ago.

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  • Updated predictions, but…

    …no column this week.  Seriously, what’s there to discuss?  The expected box office miss for “Body of Lies?”  The expected critical approval of “Happy-Go-Lucky” (which makes some strides this week)?  But I know people get ancy if the predictions aren’t updated, so I am here to be your savior.  Not a lot of shifting and sliding but some notable indications here and there.

    A quick note, however, regarding the “up” and “down” arrows you see on the charts each week.  It seems a few folks have been confused about their actual meaning, so let me reiterate that here.  Just because a contender has an arrow next to his or her name does not mean he or she has positive or negative buzz.  The arrows simply indicate that an entry has risen or fallen on the chart since the last update, and a rise or fall can be the result of any number of factors on the chart that might have nothing to do with the contender in question.  Keep that in mind.

    Here are this week’s updated predictions:

    Main Category Charts
    Technical Category Charts
    The Contenders
    Oscar Prediction Archives

  • OFF THE CARPET: Who we are, who we want to be

    (from left) Josh Brolin and Toby Jones in W.In the last few weeks, drama has persisted in the yet-to-be-heated Oscar season.  Producers are debating exhibitors in public and mid-summer opinions of awards-caliber product are being revisited — in some cases disavowed — as more and more viewers get their peeks.

    On the positive side, two studios have launched the screener circuit with indie films they hope can muster some remembrance, while the foreign film news bite barrage has come to a close with the qualification deadline.  But there isn’t much to go on in terms of assessing the season, not a lot in the way of tangible grist for the mill.

    Lots of smoke, very little fire.

    In part, that should explain a lack of predictions updates here at In Contention, shifting and sliding for no reason.  And indeed, this week’s update isn’t a massive overhaul — or even an overhaul — beyond putting a few things into context here, trimming the fat there.  But as I set out to update our projections this week, I became more and more aware of 2008’s striking theme of self-reflection this Oscar season.  And hey, it seemed as good an idea for a column as any.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: When the movies play second fiddle

    Kate Winslet and Stephen Daldry on the set of The ReaderShort column this time around because there are just a few specific things on my mind.

    It’s been a relatively slow couple of weeks in the wake of the Toronto International Film Festival.  At least on the surface.’

    Behind the scenes, studios are circling their wagons, securing Oscar ad buys, prepping their fall product and gently waiting.  “Hope you had fun at the fests,” they seem to be saying to the independent success stories of the year.  “The main event is about to begin.”

    And yet, the “main event” consistently disappoints.  Downfall can as easily be attributed to hype as it can to poor quality, an idea our own John Foote pondered last week.  Indeed, there are a few productions I expect to be rewarded for their discretion this year, lying in wait while the usual suspects empty their chambers in the loud march to Oscar.

    But it seems like casualties are already presenting themselves.  It pains me to see the Scott Rudin/Harvey Weinstein debate dragged through the mud every single day, right down to the manipulation of Nikki finke in order to make Weinstein look like an outright douche bag.  Whatever the particulars, is there any question that the real loser at the end of all of this isn’t Weinstein, isn’t Rudin, but “The Reader” itself?

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  • No Oscar column this week

    There is really nothing to say or add, so rather than scraping together some thoughts (which I can certainly do, but it would be a lot of disjointed…stuff…at this point), I thought it better to wait and see what the week brings us.

  • OFF THE CARPET: Looking for quality in the festival world

    Guy Pearce in The Hurt LockerThis year’s Toronto International Film Festival just didn’t cut it for some people.  The talk of Oscar taking a break from the annual September showcase had become tired before films even began screening, and certainly before every major news outlet had chosen the angle as the only story worth telling.

    For 10 days, the excitement for what was on hand seemed terribly muted.  But for my part, I could not have been more enthralled.

    We’ve been gifted with frontrunners in the two lead acting categories (Mickey Rourke and Kristin Scott Thomas), performances that should maintain their bee-lines for nominations at the very least, despite what the next three months have in store.  A studio that looked primed for a much-deserved year off the Oscar circuit two weeks ago has emerged as a formidable contender yet again with two acquisitions that are already winning awards (Fox Searchlight).

    What’s more, true independent cinema was given a stage on which to perform without being obscured by big studio product seeking a pre-Oscar campaign boost.  As a result, at least two well-received sleepers have insinuated themselves into the film awards spotlight (“The Hurt Locker,” “Lovely, Still”).

    What’s not exciting?

    I started out this season thinking 2008 would be a weak year for cinema, perhaps on the level of 2005’s shoddy output.  The idea has been echoed in numerous corners, as well as by fellow contributors, but I feel the need to re-frame my philosophy on the situation.  2008 seems to be proving itself a much more measured year, perhaps with less “rah-rah” exhibitions of undeniable filmmaking talent than solid and penetrating works that are out there for the interested (and patient) viewer.

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  • OFF THE CARPET: Stuck in the middle with…what?

    Since we’ve finally reached the midway point of 2008, it seemed as good a time as any to post the first “Off the Carpet” column since our year in advance take over four months ago.

    First and foremost, I’m in a unique situation this year.  Being in London since mid-May, I’ve found myself looking from the outside in on a lot of projects.  The UK generally has later release dates, meaning later press screenings.  And so, films like “WALL-E” and “The Dark Knight,” I won’t be commenting on them (and, therefore, won’t have an educated viewpoint on their Oscar prospects) until I’m back in the States in three weeks.

    In a lot of ways, it’s just like the old days (for those who remember the old, clunky Oscar Central stuff, or perhaps the sporadic columns at Oscarwatch (now Awards Daily).  I’m back in the position of fan first, commentator second in some areas, and it’s been a bit of a thrill, I have to say.  Especially in a year of Bat-hype nearly approaching the hysteria of the summer of 1989.

    But with that in mind, I also humbly recall that my Oscar-guessing mind was in a slightly better place back then, removed from the fray, having the true instincts of an observer on which to depend.  But all of that is beside the point.  The real question is, right now, half way through the year, which films have even laid a claim for film awards attention in the brutal season that will be here before we know it?

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  • OFF THE CARPET: 2008, a year in advance

    Another year, another set of wins…and another look ahead at what’s in store NEXT year.

    It’s never too late to take a long gander at what we might see dominating the film awards landscape in 365 days, and with that in mind, I’ve been doing my usual mulling over the possibilities for a few weeks to put together the sadly thorough examination of the 2008-09 award season that follows. Let’s get into it. There are some major considerations to take into account. right off the top.

    Like Leonardo DiCaprio, for instance, who is set to be the entertainer of the year. With performances in “Body of Lies” (Ridley Scott) and “Revolutionary Road” (Sam Mendes), DiCaprio is working with a duo of awards-proven talent this year. Perhaps that will work against him, much like it did in 2006, and no major Oscar success will come knocking. But we’ll wait until we see the performances. Each of them could be enticing.

    This year’s Best Picture Oscar victor Scott Rudin is back again, by the way, with “Revolutionary Road,” recently inherited by Paramount Vantage and probably one of the true “frontrunners” this far out that we could put our finger on. The only other film in Vantage’s arsenal is Edward Zwick’s “Defiance,” which could simply be a commercial success, but might find its way to multiple nods like “The Last Samurai” and “Blood Diamond” in recent years.

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