In Contention


OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — October 13, 2008

NUTSHELL: Overture Films has sparked interest in “Last Chance Harvey,” but Dustin Hoffman will have a tough time breaking into that stacked Best Actor category. Maybe a surprise nomination for Joel Hopkins’ screenplay is an unconsidered possibility. “The Dark Knight” makes its first move into the Best Picture chart after terrible pre-release press (and difficulty mobilizing at The Weinstein Company) could have put a damper on the prospects of “The Reader.” Fox Searchlight is 99% guaranteed to have the most beloved film yet again — but can they turn that into most loved?

Column: no column this week

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories


BEST PICTURE
1 “Milk”
Focus Features
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
3 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
4 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
up
5 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
down
6 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
7 “Gran Torino”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
8 “The Soloist”
DreamWorks SKG
down
9 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage
10 “The Dark Knight”
Warner Bros. Pictures
NEW


DIRECTING
1 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
2 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
3 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
4 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
5 Christopher Nolan
“The Dark Knight”
6 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
7 Darren Aronofsky
“The Wrestler”
8 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino” (or “Changeling”)
9 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
10 Edward Zwick
“Defiance”


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
2 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
3 Sean Penn
“Milk”
4 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
5 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Soloist”
6 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
7 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
8 Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”
9 Josh Brolin
“W.”
10 Benicio Del Toro
“Che”


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Kristin Scott Thomas
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
2 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
3 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
4 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
5 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
6 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
up
7 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
down
8 Melissa Leo
“Frozen River”
down
9 Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
down
10 Michelle Williams
“Wendy and Lucy”


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
2 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”
3 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
4 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
5 James Franco
“Milk”
6 Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Road”
7 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
8 Christian McKay
“Me and Orson Welles”
9 Eddie Marsan
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
up
10 Peter O’Toole
“Dean Spanley”
down


ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
3 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
4 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
5 Rosemarie Dewitt
“Rachel Getting Married”
up
6 Elsa Zylberstein
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
down
7 Elizabeth Banks
“W.”
8 Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth” (or “The Boy in Striped Pyjamas”)
9 Hiam Abbas
“The Visitor”
10 Catherine Keener
“The Soloist” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)


WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
2 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
3 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
4 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the short story by Richard Yates
5 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
6 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
7 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
8 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
9 “The Road”
Written by Joe Penhall
Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy
10 “Body of Lies”
Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian
Based on the book by David Ignatius


WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
2 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
3 “The Soloist”
Written by Susannah Grant
up
4 “Rachel Getting Married”
Written by Jenny Lumet
up
5 “The Visitor”
Written by Thomas McCarthy
up
6 “Gran Torino”
Written by Nick Schenk
up
7 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
up
7 “Last Chance Harvey”
Written by Joel Hopkins
NEW
9 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann
10 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
4 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
5 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
6 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
7 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
9 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
10 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures