Tag: Frost/Nixon

BAFTA predictions

The BAFTA nominations drop tomorrow, and while I hardly covered myself in glory with my foreign film Oscar forecast yesterday, I’m going to wade into the murky waters of prediction once more.

On the one hand, it’s a fool’s errand trying to predict the BAFTA nods, as they can frequently be the most perverse and contrarian awards voters of the lot. On the other, they make the task a little easier for us pundits by releasing 15-strong longlists in each category ahead of the voting.

As I wrote back in November, the BAFTAs can be inconsistently parochial in their voting, frequently handing multiple nods to middlebrow homegrown product, while simultaneously sidelining the most acclaimed British films of the year. A look at this year’s longlists confirms that trend, as relatively mediocre Brit flicks like “The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas,” “Mamma Mia!” and “The Duchess” all received multiple mentions, while critical darlings “Hunger” and “Happy-Go-Lucky” landed in a paltry three categories each — Best Film not among them.

The BAFTA voters’ provincialism is most shamefully evident in the Best Supporting Actress longlist, which features such bizarre inclusions as Judi Dench for “Quantum of Solace” and Rebecca Hall for her arm-candy role in “Frost/Nixon.” As for the Best Adapted Screenplay citation for “Mamma Mia!,” well, the less said the better. Of course, it’s a mistake to read too much into these lists. The idle frequency with which certain titles pop up — “Frost/Nixon” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” lead with 14 mentions each, but more surprisingly, a lightweight contender like “Burn After Reading” managed a staggering 11 — suggests the voters weren’t thinking too hard either.

Which films will fare best tomorrow is another matter — it’s not uncommon for a film to feature strongly in the longlists only to go MIA on nomination morning. Below the cut are my best guesses, together with some thoughts on the top categories.

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January 14, 2009
ACE nominees

They sure cranked these out early this morning. Thanks to N8 for posting in the comments section. This year’s American Cinema Editors (ACE) nominees are:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter)
“The Dark Knight” (Lee Smith, A.C.E.)
“Frost/Nixon” (Mike Hill, A.C.E. & Dan Hanley, A.C.E.)
“Milk” (Elliot Graham)
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Chris Dickens)

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical)
“In Bruges” (Jon Gregory, A.C.E.)
“Mamma Mia!” (Leslie Walker)
“Tropic Thunder” (Greg Hayden)
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (Alisa Lepselter)
“WALL-E” (Stephen Schaffer)

Best Edited Documentary
“Bush’s War” (Steve Audette)
“Chicago 10” (Stuart Levy, A.C.E.)
“Man on Wire” (Jinx Godfrey)

No surprises whatsoever, really. Except maybe some love for “In Bruges” and “Tropic Thunder” in the comedy category. After a discussion earlier this morning about “the five” dominating the guild circuit so far, the dramatic nominees prove to solidify the mixture even more. I don’t think we’ve ever seen a consensus like this develop, with five clear-cut industry favorites popping up everywhere like clockwork.

January 12, 2009
Art Directors Guild Nominees

Period Films
“Changeling”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Doubt”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”

Fantasy Films
“The Dark Knight”
“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
“Iron Man”
“The Spiderwick Chronicles”
“WALL-E”

Contemporary Films
“Burn After Reading”
“Gran Torino”
“Quantum of Solace”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“The Wrestler”

Alright, so more surprising guild love for “The Wrestler.” Very interesting. But I’m rather shocked at the “Hellboy II” Snub in fantasy. On the whole, though, does this clear anything up in this category? I’ve been confused all year long.

I’d say “Button,” “Skull” and “Slumdog” for the wins.

January 9, 2009
Kevin Bacon makes the rounds

As “Frost/Nixon” continues to pop up as a formidable guild contender this awards season, I must say, despite my personal appreciation for the effective drama, I’m a little surprised. It isn’t the expert craftsmanship of “Slumdog Millionaire” or the creative explosion of “Synecdoche, New York,” obviously, but it is a solid, well-constructed piece of work nonetheless. And it is apparently reaping the benefits of being one of the few films of the year that is simply easy to watch.

Well, one of the elements from the film that stood out to me more than any other was Kevin Bacon’s subdued performance as Nixon chief-of-staff Col. Jack Brennan. Bacon is probably the ultimate “Wall of Shame” actor for the Academy, still waiting on his first nomination despite two decades of solid, effective work. In a sense, his career is an interesting mirror of the film he stars in this year, a fine-tuned machine that isn’t overly miraculous but is inarguable all the same.

Bacon remains one of my all time favorite interviews. Probably my favorite interview. We spoke once nearly five years ago when he was campaigning for “The Woodsman,” a 2004 drama starring Bacon as a pedophile trying to cope in society that should have earned the actor more kudos than it did. What was supposed to be a 20-minute discourse turned into nearly an hour of discussion, and for me, just a kid in college hammering out a piece for another outlet, it was the bee’s knees. He couldn’t have been cooler or nicer, offering plenty of advice for a film school grad hoping to poke his way into the business some day.

With that in mind, I was happy to stumble upon this Daily Telegraph interview with the actor, who hasn’t received a lot of press for his work in “Frost” this year. Less an example of good writing from journo Nigel Farndale than a case study in letting the subject tell the story, it does a wonderful job of casting the Hollywood particulars to the periphery in favor of concentrating on Bacon the man more than Bacon the actor.

There are plenty insightful asides regarding Bacon’s family life, his philosophy of raising children, his insistence on living away from the fray in New york, etc. Farmdale scatters the piece with this nugget or that regarding roles in “Footloose,” “JFK,” “Mystic River” and “A Few Good Men,” but mostly, its a character study of Bacon himself. There was, however, this interesting remark concerning his adeptness at portraying military types on the screen that I thought I’d spotlight:

“I don’t think I could cut it in the army but, hey, it was never going to arise. I’m an actor. I play marines. I’ve had them say ‘you could do it’ and I say ‘trust me, I could not’. I don’t think I have the marine mentality.”

He gesticulates with his fork, conducting the conversation with it. ”But I don’t question my manliness. That’s not something I struggle with. One of the fun things about being an actor is that you can put yourself in situations where you test yourself.”

As we all do if given the chance, Farndale asks about the infamous “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon,” a game I should have to explain to anyone reading these words, but in case I do, click here. Bacon’s response was inspired, I thought:

Take me out of it and the idea of connectivity is kind of beautiful. A powerful, small world idea that says that whatever you or I are doing will affect other people down the road, for good or ill.

It’s a great interview. Check out the rest here.

January 9, 2009
1/9 Oscarweb Round-up

• Patrick Goldstein is happy to NOT talk Oscar at an Oscar party. [The Big Picture]

• Jeffrey Wells somehow reads “backlash” into a harmless, truthful quote. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

• David S. Cohen considers the awards gala glut in the face of economic troubles. [Variety]

• Tom O’Neil chats it up with “Last Chance Harvey” star Dustin Hoffman. [Gold Derby]

• Jeremy Kay on films looking for the ticket sales boost of Golden Globe recognition. [The Guardian]

• Brad Brevet calls Razzie founder John Wilson out on some dubious comments. [Rope of Silicon]

• Christina Patterson sits down with “Frost/Nixon” star Michael Sheen. [The Times]

• A brief back-and-forth with the critics’ choice for Best Young Actor Dev Patel. [Daily Telegraph]

January 9, 2009
DGA nominees

I think we’re locked and loaded, folks…

David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

What more is there to add at this point? This is where John Shanley needed to show up if there was any more hope for “Doubt.” This is where Darren Aronofsky needed to stake a claim if there was any Best Picture juice in “The Wrestler.” Ditto Stephen Daldry and “The Reader,” I guess. But with this, I think the consensus has become overwhelming and a bit difficult to ignore.

January 8, 2009
WGA nominees

Original Screenplay
“Burn After Reading” (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
“Milk” (Dustin Lance Black)
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (Woody Allen)
“The Visitor” (Thomas McCarthy)
“The Wrestler” (Robert Siegel)

Adapted Screenplay
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Eric Roth; screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord; based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald)
“The Dark Knight” (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan; screen story by Christopher Nolan, David S. Goyer; based on characters appearing in comic books published by DC Comics; Batman created by Bob Kane)
“Doubt” (John Patrick Shanley; based on his stage play)
“Frost/Nixon” (Peter Morgan; based on his stage play)
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Simon Beaufoy; based on the novel “Q and A” by Vikas Swarup)

Documentary
“Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story” (Stefan Forbes, Noland Walker)
“Chicago 10” (Brett Morgan)
“Fuel” (Johnny O’Hara)
“Gonzo: The Life and Work of Hunter S. Thompson” (Alex Gibney; from the words of Hunter S. Thompson)
“Waltz With Bashir” (Ari Folman)

So, the lesson? “The Dark Knight” is in this thing for real now. As I said last night, this was going to be the real test. “I wanted to see what you’d do. And you didn’t disappoint.” The rest of the adapted screenplay nominees will likely translate to Oscar 5/5, but I somehow doubt the Coen brothers will turn their guild mention into an Oscar berth. Remember, the WGA likes comedies, so “Burn After Reading” was always going to have a leg up here.

More love for “The Wrestler,” and though it’s not entirely unexpected, I must say it was a pleasant surprise. And we all figured Thomas McCarthy would find love with the same group that nomianted him for 2003’s “The Station Agent.” He may or may not translate that into an Oscar nomination, but it’s certainly a good possibility.

And remember, animated films are not eligible, so “WALL-E” still has a shot at sliding in. Maybe. It is, indeed, the most critically acclaimed film of the year, but it’s a slightly different case than “Toy Story,” “Finding Nemo” and “Ratatouille,” I think.

Biggest snub: “Rachel Getting Married” (very odd, but frankly, a welcome exclusion)
Needed this one bad: “In Bruges” (the studio is trying hard); “The Reader” (that Scripter nod might have provided elevated hopes)

Anyway, I think Christopher Nolan’s DGA nomination is pretty much in the bag tomorrow. I’d be tempted to call the Best Picture five a done deal after that, but we must always remember “Almost Famous and “Being John Malkovich,” two films that landed nominations from the PGA, DGA, WGA and a grabbed a SAG ensemble mention, yet failed to make into Oscar’s Best Picture five. And “The Dark Knight” didn’t even get the SAG Ensemble nod, so “Doubt” is still lurking. It ain’t over yet.

January 7, 2009
Guessing the DGA

So, with SAG, PGA and ASC out of the way, and with WGA still to come in a matter of hours, I guess it’s worth mentioning that the big daddy guild is announcing tomorrow: the Directors Guild of America (DGA). Now’s as good a time as any to take a stab at guessing the nominees…

The DGA has been one hell of an Oscar Best Picture barometer for the last decade or so. Last year was the first real hiccup as the guild only nailed three of the eventual five nominees with their director choices. 2006 saw one misfire (but we all still figured “Dreamgirls” was in around this time two years ago). Then it was four years in a row five-for-five until we have another hiccup, Ridley Scott making it in for “Black Hawk Down” and Christopher Nolan (in the mix again this year) for “Memento.”

After that, the general trend was four-for-five with some 100 percents thrown in here and there, but you get the picture. This is, more often than not, quite the prognosticative (that’s so not a word) guild. With the PGA clearly establishing a consensus of sorts (not that those five films haven’t been the obvious contenders for weeks upon weeks), I see no real reason to get creative right now, so I’m going with the following:

David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

There are only two filmmakers that I think have a shot of cracking this quintet: Woody Allen for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and, perhaps more so, Darren Aronofsky for “The Wrestler.” John Patrick Shanley and “Doubt” showing up would truly shock me and Andrew Stanton is not eligible for “WALL-E,” so the field is rather thin.

What are you thinking?

January 7, 2009
Guessing the WGA: the adaptations

(Original screenplay predictions here.)

The adapted field is a little easier to manage. But I wouldn’t look to USC’s typically road-less-traveled nominees for much of a barometer for the adapted screenplay race, however. That’s folly of a different sort. So we’re left to our own devices.

Once again, foreign and animated films are not eligible here. This probably affects “The Class” and “Gomorrah” more than anything else. I doubt “The Tale of Despereaux” has much in the way of screenplay hopes this season. Ditto “Let the Right One In,” however vile the idea.

As mentioned in the originals discussion, the WGA likes its comedies. “Mean Girls,” “Bridget Jones’s Diary” and “High Fidelity” are a few examples of adaptations to make the cut here while missing with the Academy. The only problem is…there isn’t really an applicable comedy adaptation in the mix. Had, say, “Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist” or “Yes Man” been somewhat more memorable, then maybe. But that’s about all we have to pull from. So maybe it isn’t a bad thing. Anything that makes the guessing game a little easier is fine by me.

I’d say the safest bets here are the two Best Picture frontrunners: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (written by Eric Roth) and “Slumdog Millionaire” (Simon Beaufoy). And even though I just finished telling you the Scripter nominees shouldn’t matter, I nonetheless think David Hare’s adaptation of “The Reader” might have a strong foothold here, even if it misses with Oscar (which it might not). Ditto Justin Haythe’s “Revolutionary Road.”

That leaves a battle of the plays: “Doubt” versus “Frost/Nixon.” As I said earlier, there is always at least one eventual Best Picture nominee left off the guild’s slate, even if it manages a nomination with AMPAS writers. My bet is that’s going to be “Frost/Nixon” this year, so chalk one up for “Doubt.” But I’m not solid on that either, because…

…the big question mark is “The Dark Knight.” I think the PGA nomination was a given and I don’t think a SAG ensemble nod should have really been expected. The Scripter snub was odd, but meaningless in the face of the awards landscape, because it isn’t an industry organization. So the first real, true, honest-to-God test for this film and its Oscar hopes comes with tomorrow’s announcement. I’m strangely expecting a snub, one that might carry over to Oscar even if a Best Picture nomination stays in the cards. But even so, that’s shaky ground to be on. Only a DGA nomiantion Thursday could right the ship if WGA takes a pass.

My predictions:

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Eric Roth; based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald)
“Doubt” (John Patrick Shanley; based on his play)
“The Reader” (David Hare; based on the nivel by Bernhard Schlink)
“Revolutionary Road” (Justin Haythe; based on the novel by Richard Yates)
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Simon Beaufoy; based on the novel “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup)

Other possibilities:
“The Dark Knight” (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan; based on characters appearing in DC Comics)
“Defiance” (Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick; based on the book by Nechama Tec)
“Frost/Nixon” (Peter Morgan; based on his play)

What about you?

January 6, 2009
BAFTA longlist

I’ll wait until this slate of contenders is a wee bit narrower before I start really digging into it, but it looks like the BAFTA favorites are “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Frost/Nixon.”

January 6, 2009
EXCLUSIVE: Best Makeup contenders narrow to seven

The first bake-off of the season is here, narrowing the Oscar contenders for Best Makeup down to seven. The finalists are:

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army”
“The Reader”
“Synecdoche, New York”
“Tropic Thunder”
“The Wrestler”

No major surprises here. My predicted three are still in the mix. In fact, I missed the top seven in my chart by just one, “The Reader” in favor of “Frost/Nixon.” But the show of support for “The Wrestler” is certainly telling, and perhaps a worthy inclusion, given the attention to brutal battle detail in the pro wrestling flick.

If there are any surprise omissions, it might be the aforementioned “Frost/Nixon,” or perhaps “W.” Oh, and “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian.” I believe the first installment made it this far. No go on the considerably less popular sequel. But on the whole, this process seems to have been organic enough, leaving us with a solid septet. I could see any combination of three making it in.

January 5, 2009
PGA nominations announced

Well, it seems I was off by one. Could this be the first year ever that the PGA matches with Oscar 5/5? We’ll soon find out. DGA on Thursday (the real precursor to watch), as well as the BFCA Awards.

And the nominees are:

Motion Picture
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Animated
“Bolt”
“Kung Fu Panda”
“WALL-E”

Documentary
“Man on Wire”
“Trouble the Water”
“Standard Operating Procedure”

January 5, 2009
Pre-PGA housekeeping

I hadn’t realized I’d let my predictions linger, unattended, since November — I revised them in my head and guess I thought that would somehow magically appear on the site. Anyway, I thought it best to do some cobweb-clearing before the PGA announcement later today (for the record, I’m going with “Button,” “Knight” “Milk,” “Slumdog” and “WALL-E”) sends the guessing game into a new dimension. You can find my revised nomination predictions here.

I’m still playing with some quirky, no doubt foolhardy, notions, but I like to keep things fun before the Guilds force us to get serious. Many categories still look like a complete crap-shoot to me: in the confounding Best Actress race, for example, I’m experimenting with a Kate Winslet snub, while dipping (reluctantly) into the Angelina Jolie pool for the first time. It doesn’t feel good.

In the top race, I’m still banking on “WALL-E” leapfrogging “The Dark Knight” as the populist choice, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see both in there. I’m happy with four of my Best Picture runners, but couldn’t settle on a fifth: “Revolutionary Road” is freezing over, “Frost/Nixon” has ticked all the boxes but doesn’t seem to be anyone’s favourite, and the other most-mentioned contenders are a pretty passionless bunch too. Instead of flipping a coin between them, I decided to go a little crazy and try “Happy-Go-Lucky” on for size.

Below the cut, for the hell of it, some winner picks to accompany Kris’s last week. In the top race, I’ve moved on from my earlier prediction of a “Milk” victory (seeing the film helps sometimes), but something still doesn’t feel right about “Slumdog Millionaire” to me — it seems like the kind of film that would benefit from going into the Oscar race as an underdog rather than the favourite. I honestly have no idea, so I’ll take that as an excuse to go mental again until I get a clearer sign.

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January 5, 2009
PGA noms coming next week

The Producers Guild of America announces its nominees Monday. Then the DGA wraps up the big three (after PGA and SAG) on Thursday. I expect “The Dark Knight” is a no-brainer nominee here and the likely winner. After that, I’d say “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Slumdog Millionaire” are likely, especially in the case of the former, what with producing powerhouses Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall (the former popping up here last year for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” in something of a surprise).

After that it gets a bit tricky. I’d be tempted to think “WALL-E” will turn up here like “The Incredibles” in 2004. Box office + critical acclaim + major awards consideration, all that. But with the animated category being instituted a few years back, that scenario becomes less likely.

There isn’t much that screams PGA about “Doubt” or, to a lesser extent, “Revolutionary Road.” But Scott Rudin did well enough with two films last year. “Milk” and “Frost/Nixon” might be a decent bets, but surely something will pop up in the way of the unexpected. I just can’t put my finger on what that will be. Since the group began a nominations format, the eventual five Best Picture nominees have never been assembled in the PGA collective, and that includes 2002 and 2003, the two years that netted six nominees.

“Iron Man” popping up wouldn’t be a shock. “The Wrestler” could be a nice indie call, but I think it’s doubtful. Ah screw it, I’m going to go with the following, including a “Milk” snub that is most likely a mistake:

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall)
“The Dark Knight” (Christopher Nolan, Charles Roven, Emma Thomas)
“Frost/Nixon” (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Brian Grazer, Ron Howard)
“Revolutionary Road” (Bobby Cohen, John Hart, Sam Mendes, Scott Rudin)
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Christian Colson, Paul Ritchie)

What are your predictions?

January 2, 2009
My picks for the 10 BEST films of the year

It’s no secret that I don’t expect 2008 to be remembered as a banner year for cinema, though with that said, there are plenty of exceptional films to be remembered.

Perhaps 2007 spoiled us and got our hopes up and 2008 brought far too many let downs and disappointments from great filmmakers. Usually when I sit down to write up the year’s best, the first short list stands at around 30, perhaps 35 films that range from very good to great. This year I was at less than 20, and in some cases, I was probably stretching to allow space for this or that.

But I got it down to 10, so here they are…

10. “VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA”
This film was not vintage Woody Allen, as he has grown so much as a director for anything new from him to be considered a throw-back, but it is certainly refreshing Allen. Sexy and sleek, this film is part of the newest stage in the director’s career, moving away from the comfort and familiarity of New York to an exotic locale with Americans mixing it up and getting into all sorts of bizarre situations. Penélope Cruz all but burns a hole in the screen with her sensuality in this film, which is terrifying because she just might be psychotic. Welcome back Woody…we’ve missed you.

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December 29, 2008
OFF THE CARPET: A season less ordinary…or is it?

The critics have nearly concluded their annual kudos dish. The first guild has spoken, giving us some sliver of insight into what Academy members might think of the 2008-2009 Oscar season. With such a thin crop of contenders, the tome has been “broad, but shallow, playing field,” leaving the opportunity for multiple films to find their champions and even the least AMPAS-friendly of products to find room at the table.

So as we inch toward year’s end, what have we learned? When it comes to the usual blend, the Academy will find a way.

A scenario has been kicking around inside my head for some time that, like one concerned reader in another post, scares me to death. It is pretty much a done deal for “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” two refreshingly different films where AMPAS tastes are concerned, but paradoxically boring with the knowledge that there is passion elsewhere, seemingly too intimidated to rear its head.

“Frost/Nixon” and “Milk” are assured after that, it seems, two films cut from the AMPAS cloth from a director who knows that cloth well and one who only finds Academy acceptance when he goes there, respectively. After that, “the knowledge” has become the truly exciting spark of the season: can a populist film such as “The Dark Knight” or “WALL-E” find the right base of passion to push through for a Best Picture nomination?

I fear we may have all gotten carried away with ourselves and our love of these films, whether you fall on one side or both, because we’re ignoring AMPAS tendency at our own peril.

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December 22, 2008
Detroit critics go for ‘Slumdog,’ Tomei neck-and-neck with Cruz with sixth win

(Updated to amend tally error on my part.)

I know I declared a moratorium on these until the dust settles, but I stumbled onto the list of winners for the Detroit Film Critics Society while compiling the master list and didn’t see them reported elsehwere yet, so here you go. This list is significant to me, though, because Marisa Tomei has officially pulled up right along side of Penelope Cruz, winning her sixth critical kudo. SAG sure is looking silly for that slight.

The winners, via the DFCS website (nominees were announced Tuesday):

Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
Best Ensemble: “Frost/Nixon”
Best Newcomer: Martin McDonough, writer/director, “In Bruges”

December 19, 2008
All in the family: a note on the SAG nods

I know I shouldn’t get upset. As Sasha Stone over at Awards Daily repeatedly intones, when it comes to awards analysis, “the trick is not minding.” You should coolly observe the trends, learn from them and be guided always by your head rather than your heart.

But damn it, I’m only human. I can’t help getting invested in certain contenders. And I don’t mind admitting that I was utterly dismayed by this morning’s thoroughly unadventurous and, worse yet, insular set of SAG nominations. Did the voters really carefully consider all the possible options before putting pen to ballot paper? Did they really take time to decide which of the year’s performances and ensembles most moved and challenged them? Or did they simply reel off the five names in each category that they’ve heard the most about, and think are most likely to feature in the Oscar race?

Maybe the answer to the first two questions is “yes.” But I doubt it. I find it hard to imagine that any actor adequately attuned to their own craft could consider all the female supporting performances of the year and somehow decide that Amy Adams’ performance in “Doubt” was more rich and complex than what Rosemarie DeWItt achieved in “Rachel Getting Married,” or Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler.”

I don’t believe (or at least I don’t want to believe) that actors who supposedly have some experience of ensemble work can fail to notice that the ensembles of “Synecdoche, New York,” “The Dark Knight,” “Happy-Go-Lucky,” “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” or even “Rachel Getting Married” are denser, more intricate and infinitely more integrated than those of “Frost/Nixon” or “Doubt.”

A great ensemble is about more than the prestige of the names within it. You’d expect actors to understand that, and last year’s off-the-wall nominations for “Hairspray” and “3:10 to Yuma” suggested that maybe, just maybe, they did. This year, however, was back to business as usual, as they turn their highest and most unique award into yet another Best Picture-emulating copycat list.

(More thoughts, and predictions, after the cut.)

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December 18, 2008