The last two weeks have been a leaf blower to the debris an awards season can accumulate. Individuals with some real say in the ultimate Oscar picture have finally gone on the record, painting a rather clear picture of the industry’s favorite films of 2008.
But before diving into the realities of the various guild announcements, it is probably worth touching upon the gleeful diversions of the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Golden Globe Awards.
These are the two culminating critics soirees, capping off the annual critical kudos sprint through December and early January. Both proudly declare themselves Oscar harbingers but only one seems to find itself decided from a critical mindset (even if that mindset is still warped by pegging a zeitgeist). The other is, as always, a drunken time amongst industry friends that goes its own way.
But dare I say it, this year the HFPA may have actually raised the bar for the Academy. After years of embarrassing nominations announcements and sometimes bewildering winner choices, the group awarded a slate of contenders last night that stuck out as noble and, shockingly, novel.
Can the Academy’s membership reach out to Mickey Rourke and meet him half way like he has clearly done this season to an industry that has shunned him for so many years? Can they find a way to spread the kudos love while an inevitable “Slumdog” sweep pushes through the evening of February 22?
Moreover, can AMPAS have the balls to follow in the HFPA’s footsteps with a double win for Kate Winslet, arguably deserving this year and a move that would be inarguable as a hell of an apology for years of Oscar losses? The actress joined Sigourney Weaver last night as one of only two actresses to win a pair of Golden Globe awards for film performances in one evening. Your move, Oscar.
Though it ain’t over till it’s over, I think the five nominees for best actor have all but been decided. Come nomination morning, I expect to hear the names of Clint Eastwood, Sean Penn, Frank Langella, Mickey Rourke and Richard Jenkins.
–MEMO–
Before we get to the end of the month here I thought I’d go ahead and toss up another set of winner predictions. This’ll be the last pre-nom set. I’ll go back to them next month, probably the day of the nominations announcement. But for now, it’s really all blind guessing, as always.
It could happen…but it shouldn’t.
As I said a few weeks ago, I would not analyze the last “tech” category until the eligible entries had been announced. Now that the Academy has named 49 finalists for Best Original Song, and with the BFCA and HFPA rattling off their list of nominees (though they are, admittedly, not great predictors), the time seems appropriate to have an in depth look into the category.
With tomorrow’s SAG announcement hovering, waiting to be the first true litmus test of what the industry thinks of the year’s product (being the first guild out of the gate), I thought I’d take a stab at predictions, fit with alternates for old times’ sake.

Well, I
As we head into the thick of awards season, one of the biggest “will-they-won’t-they” questions about this year’s Academy Awards concerns one of their most favored sons, Clint Eastwood. Specifically: despite wildly polarized responses to the film, and a widespread perception that he has already been amply rewarded in other categories, can Eastwood ride the wave of sentiment to a first acting victory for “Gran Torino?”
A couple of days ago, David Poland
The National Board of Review has announced its list of winners for the 2008 awards season and Fox Searchlight’s “Slumdog Millionaire” is the big champ, taking down three awards including Best Film and a tie for Best Adapted Screenplay with Eric Roth’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” Dev Patel also won the award for Breakthrough Performance by an Actor.
After being kept under wraps for so long, word is finally starting to emerge on Clint Eastwood’s presumed awards contender, “Gran Torino.” Dave Karger already
I like Clint. I really do. I’m sticking up for him against all this timidity regarding his “cranky old guy” performance in “Gran Torino” because I