How about some SAG predictions?

Posted by · 11:14 am · December 17th, 2008

Screen Actors Guild awardWith tomorrow’s SAG announcement hovering, waiting to be the first true litmus test of what the industry thinks of the year’s product (being the first guild out of the gate), I thought I’d take a stab at predictions, fit with alternates for old times’ sake.

I think this will be the first real trial for a film like “The Dark Knight,” virtually assured a nomination for Heath Ledger in supporting actor, but will the ensemble be taken seriously enough?  Better yet, can another of the film’s cast, like, say, Gary Oldman, show up with a surprise mention?

Meanwhile, Kate Winslet has been coasting with critics’ nomiations for her performance in “The Reader,” but I’m not completely sold yet.  It’s a great portrayal, but that’s a stacked category that could go a number of ways.  Still, the SAG tends to correctly anticipated the Academy’s list of nominees in both actress categories, so when the names are called tomorrow morning, start locking them away and taking them to the bank.

Speaking of Winslet, “Revolutionary Road” could really use another shot in the arm.  A nomination for Best Ensemble is somewhat crucial, I think, and would be indicative of deep support for the film from the actors, many of which share membership in AMPAS.  I could see anywhere from five nods (including an ensemble bid and notices for Michael Shannon and Kathy Bates), to a mere two (for Winslet and co-star Leonardo DiCaprio).

One last note, I’m going out on a limb by predicting a Clint Eastwood snub.  I’m probably wrong but the actor’s fellow thesps didn’t vouch for him in 2004 when the Academy did, so it could play out similarly this year.  We’ll know in due time.

For now, here’s how I see things panning out:

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
(alt.: Josh Brolin, “W.”)

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
(alt.: Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”)

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
James Franco, “Milk”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
(alt.: Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky”)

Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
(alt.: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”)

Best Ensemble
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Milk”
“Rachel Getting Married”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
(alt.: “Doubt”)

Have your say!  Who are you predicting to be nominated by the Screen Actors Guild?




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28 responses so far

  • 1 12-17-2008 at 11:18 am

    andrew said...

    I’m hopin for a nom for Kristin Scott Thomas, who’s buzz has shockingly dwindled a lot aside from the Globe nod. I think Winslet and Blachett in Revolutionary Road and Benjamin Button won’t make it in the top 5, or (unfortunately) Henson in S. Actress.

  • 2 12-17-2008 at 11:32 am

    Billyboy said...

    Here’s hoping both Rebecca Hall and Samantha Morton show up tomorrow…

    That would make my day.

  • 3 12-17-2008 at 11:41 am

    Chris said...

    I hope The Dark Knight actually does show up in best ensemble. I would be sort of surprised if it didn’t. That and Milk are the best ensembles of the year, in my opinion.

  • 4 12-17-2008 at 11:47 am

    Thomas said...

    Hi there,

    hope you are having a great time Kris

    greetings from Greece…i am on holiday here in my country

    my predictions for SAG 2008
    best actor:
    Mickey Rourke
    Sean Penn
    Frank Langella
    Clint Eastwood
    Richard Jenkins

    best actress:
    Kristin Scott Thomas
    Melissa Leo
    Meryl Streep
    Ann Hathaway
    Sally Hawkins

    best supporting actor:
    Michael Shannon
    Heath Ledger
    Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Robert Downey Jr.
    Emile Hirch

    best supporting actress:
    Kate Winslet
    Viola Davis
    Penelope Cruz
    Rosemarie DeWitt
    Marisa Tomei

    best ensemble cast:
    Rachel Getting Married
    Milk
    Synecdoche, New York
    The Dark Knight
    Revolutionary Road

    have a nice holiday

  • 5 12-17-2008 at 11:50 am

    N8 said...

    ENSEMBLE
    Doubt
    The Dark Knight
    Milk
    Rachel Getting Married
    Tropic Thunder (what the hell! this year’s Hairspray maybe?)
    alt. Benjamin Button

    ACTOR
    Richard Jenkins
    Frank Langella
    Sean Penn
    Brad Pitt
    Mickey Rourke
    alt. Leonardo DiCaprio

    ACTRESS
    Anne Hathaway
    Sally Hawkins
    Melissa Leo
    Meryl Streep
    Kate Winslet
    alt. Cate Blanchett

    SUPP. ACTOR
    Josh Brolin
    Robert Downey Jr.
    Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Heath Ledger
    Michael Shannon
    alt. James Franco

    SUPP. ACTRESS
    Penelope Cruz
    Viola Davis
    Marisa Tomei
    Rosemary DeWitt
    Kate Winslet
    alt. Tariji P. Henson

    STUNT ENSEMBLE
    Body of Lies
    The Dark Knight
    Indiana Jones
    Iron Man
    Quantum of Solace
    alt. Wanted

  • 6 12-17-2008 at 11:58 am

    Jamian Bailey said...

    Kris I agree with you 100 percent on Eastwood’s snub tommorrow. I still think he’s going to get a Oscar Nominations, but the two prior times he was nominated for acting he didn’t show up much during the precursors. Part of me thinks Kristin Scott Thomas will get in, and I also think for some reason Dev Patel will get nominated for Supporting Actor. You made some good predictions. I’m looking forward to see what happens tomorrow.

  • 7 12-17-2008 at 12:13 pm

    Aaron said...

    Actor:
    I would substitute Leo DiCaprio for Brad Pitt. I, like you, think Richard Jenkins will make it in.

    Actress:
    Wow, this really is a tough one to predict. We have the same predictions except I have substituted Cate Blanchett for Angelina Jolie. I don’t know how strong Blanchett’s support is for this film. Her Globe snub hurt. Jolie has had a solid precursor streak, with Satellite, Globe, and BFCA nods. I think she’s in.

    Supporting Actor and Actress: DEAD ON. Unless they don’t really go for Revolutionary Road, then I would put James Franco (I see he’s your alternative) in for Michael Shannon.

    Ensemble:
    This really is hard to predict. I’m going to say:

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Dark Knight
    Doubt
    Frost/Nixon
    Milk

    …predicting a snub for Slumdog Millionaire–which could be stupid…but it doesn’t really seem like an ensemble film in my opinion.

  • 8 12-17-2008 at 12:45 pm

    Marvin said...

    I’m praying for a Blanchett mention.

  • 9 12-17-2008 at 12:52 pm

    AJ said...

    If nominated, look for Taraji P. Henson to win supporting actress. She’s a past nominee for Boston Legal (ensemble) so the TV actors might want to give one of their own an award. Unlike Felicity Huffman she won’t be nominated anywhere else.

  • 10 12-17-2008 at 12:55 pm

    Ash said...

    I’m hoping for an ensemble nod for Slumdog, but I’m thinking it’s definitely not “actory” enough for SAG.

  • 11 12-17-2008 at 12:57 pm

    D. said...

    Hairspray was different than Tropic Thunder, if only because it had such a vast primary cast which included a big amount of long-acclaimed actors (and at least two.. well, one? gave a good performance in the film itself). Thunder, however, relies on 7 actors, two of whom are virtually unknown, four are not awards magnets (especially Black, but also McCounaghey, Cruise, Stiller), and one is Downey, Jr. Can he pull six people’s weight? Perhaps. But it would be surprising, whereas Hairspray was to be expected, even though it may’ve been an inferior film.

  • 12 12-17-2008 at 1:08 pm

    John Travolta said...

    Best Actor
    Sean Penn
    Frank Langella
    Mickey Rourke
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Richard Jenkins

    Best Supporting Actor
    Heath Ledger
    Josh Brolin
    Robert Downey Jr
    Phillip Seymour Hoffmann
    James Franco

    Best Supporting Actress
    Penelope Cruz
    Kate Winslett
    Marisa Tomei
    Taraji P. Henson
    Viola Davis

    Best Actress
    Meryl Streep
    Kate Winslett
    Sally Hawkins
    Anne Hathaway
    Cate Blanchett

    Best Ensemble
    The Dark Knight
    Milk
    The Curious Case of Benjammin Button
    Rachel Getting Married

  • 13 12-17-2008 at 1:16 pm

    N8 said...

    Your’e quite right, D. When I refered to Tropic Thunder as (possibly) this year’s Hairspray, I just meant it in that SAG usually tries to make room for a more light-hearted film in the ensemble category. But I know it’s a longshot.

  • 14 12-17-2008 at 1:29 pm

    Marcus said...

    Ensemble:
    The Dark Knight
    Doubt
    Milk
    Revolutionary Road
    Slumdog Millionaire

    Actor:
    Leonardo DiCaprio “Revolutionary Road”
    Richard Jenkins “The Visitor”
    Frank Langella “Frost/Nixon”
    Sean Penn “Milk”
    Mickey Rourke “The Wrestler”

    Actress:
    Anne Hathaway “Rachel Getting Married”
    Sally Hawkins “Happy Go Lucky”
    Melissa Leo “Frozen River”
    Meryl Streep “Doubt”
    Kate Winslet “Revolutionary Road”

    Supporting Actor:
    Josh Brolin “Milk”
    Robert Downey Jr. “Tropic Thunder”
    Philip Seymour Hoffman “Doubt”
    Heath Ledger “The Dark Knight”
    Michael Shannon “Revolutionary Road”

    Supporting Actress:
    Penélope Cruz “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
    Viola Davis “Doubt”
    Rosemarie DeWitt “Rachel Getting Married”
    Taraji P. Henson “The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button”
    Kate Winslet “The Reader”

  • 15 12-17-2008 at 1:36 pm

    JOE said...

    I’d be shocked if Doubt doesn’t get an ensemble nod.

    Yea, look out for Leo or Thomas as surprise slip ins. Not sure about Eastwood either.

    Dev Patel may be a shocker too, as well as SLUMDOG in ensemble? Those would be the surprises…

  • 16 12-17-2008 at 2:19 pm

    Patrick F. said...

    I’m really hoping for Melissa Leo and Richard Jenkins noms… I’m going to go out on a limb here and say thay snub Benjamin Button for ensemble, and maybe even Cate Blanchett gets snubbed.

    I’m not sure about Clint though. Gran Torino got hot at just the right time for it to get guild attention. The TV ads are up and have the almost identical feel to those for Million Dollar Baby. Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn split the crix so the door for Clint is wide open. Everyone has worked with him, and everyone loves him.

    Ensemble
    Doubt
    Dark Knight
    Milk
    Rachel Getting Married
    (Alt: Changeling)

    Actor
    Eastwood – Gran Torino
    Jenkins – The Visitor
    Penn – Milk
    Rourke – The Wrestler
    Langalla – Frost/Nixon

    Actress:
    Jolie – Changeling
    Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
    Leo – Frozen River
    Streep – Doubt
    Hawkings – Happy Go Lucky
    (alt: Blanchett)

    Sup Actor
    Brolin – Milk
    Ledger – Dark Knight
    Patel – Slumdog
    Hoffman – Doubt
    Malcovich – Changeling (Shot in the dark)
    Alt (Feinnes)
    (There’s always one curveball, and considering the concensus about whose winning this catagory, they may go crazy here.)

    Sup Actress
    Cruz – VCB
    Davis – Doubt
    Adams – Doubt
    Winslet – Reader
    DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married

  • 17 12-17-2008 at 2:57 pm

    Hugo said...

    If SAG is always fair should be the following list:

    Eastwood
    Jenkins
    Penn
    Rourke
    Langella

    Actress:

    Meryl Streep
    Sally Hawkins
    Anne Hathaway
    Melissa Leo
    Kristin Scott Thomas

  • 18 12-17-2008 at 3:54 pm

    Simone said...

    I know it has a snowball’s chance in hell, but, I’m hoping for Michael Fassbender to be nominated. I know, I know… but, I’m hoping.

  • 19 12-17-2008 at 4:05 pm

    Bryan C. said...

    And I still haven’t given up hope for a surprise nomination for GARY OLDMAN as Best Supporting Actor. I know it’s highly unlikely, but I’ll keep my fingers crossed!

  • 20 12-17-2008 at 4:40 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    So many question marks here… only when I’d finished my predictions did I realize I had nothing for “Button,” or for Winslet. I know that’s insane, but hell, I’ll stick with my first instincts.

    BEST ENSEMBLE
    “Doubt”
    “Frost/Nixon”
    “Milk”
    “Rachel Getting Married”
    “Slumdog Millionaire”

    BEST ACTOR
    Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”
    Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
    Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
    Sean Penn, “Milk”
    Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

    BEST ACTRESS
    Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
    Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
    Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
    Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
    Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Josh Brolin, “Milk”
    Robert Downey, Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
    James Franco, “Milk”
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
    Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams, “Doubt”
    Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
    Viola Davis, “Doubt”
    Vera Farmiga, “Nothing But the Truth”
    Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”

    Why Farmiga? I don’t know.

  • 21 12-17-2008 at 5:17 pm

    Ovidio said...

    BEST ENSEMBLE

    Burn after Reading
    The Dark Knight
    Milk
    Doubt
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Revolutionary Road
    Slumdog Millionaire

    BEST ACTOR

    Frank Langella
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Richard Jenkis
    Clint Eastwood
    Mikey Rourke
    Sean Penn

    BEST ACTRESS

    Angelina Jolie
    Meryl Streep
    Kate Winslet
    Anne Hathaway
    Sally Hawkins

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Marisa Tomei
    Penelope Cruz
    Viola Davis
    Amy Adams
    Kate Winslet

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Michael Shannon
    Heath Ledger
    Josh Brolin
    James Franco
    Phyllip Seymour-Hoffman

  • 22 12-17-2008 at 6:16 pm

    Brian Kinsley said...

    I could see The Visitor getting an ensemble nom, ala Station Agent.

    I can def. see Michelle Williams showing up as well.

  • 23 12-17-2008 at 7:29 pm

    Jeff said...

    Has anyone heard if the nominations will be televised? TNT? E!?

  • 24 12-17-2008 at 7:52 pm

    JAB said...

    actor:
    Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
    Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
    Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
    Sean Penn – Milk
    Brad Pitt – Benjamin Button

    actress:
    Cate Blanchett – Benjamin Button
    Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
    Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
    Meryl Streep – Doubt
    Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

    supporting actor:
    Josh Brolin – Milk
    James Franco – Milk
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
    Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
    Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road

    supporting actress:
    Amy Adams – Doubt
    Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
    Viola Davis – Doubt
    Taraji P. Henson – Benjamin Button
    Kate Winslet – The Reader

    ensemble:
    Benjamin Button
    The Dark Knight
    Doubt
    Milk
    Revolutionary Road

    let the Button/RR/Doubt lovefest commence.

  • 25 12-17-2008 at 7:54 pm

    Rob Scheer said...

    All my friends/acquaintances in SAG (admittedly, only about a half dozen) seemed to hate “Revolutionary Road.” Have you been hearing any such rumblings, Kris?

  • 26 12-17-2008 at 8:17 pm

    Ivich said...

    This is one of the few guilds where I don’t think Slumdog Millionaire has any chance whatsoever. So if Slumdog makes the cut for Best Ensemble, then we can pretty much conclude that the film is the FAVOURITE for Best Film at the Academy Awards. As Kris mentioned that many SAG members are also members of the Academy, getting votes from the actors will really boost Slumdog’s chances. I still say that Slumdog Millionaire will not make the cut here.

  • 27 12-17-2008 at 10:15 pm

    Michael said...

    Someone’s got a crush on Nolan and co. Ahh, I’m just kidding.

    Nice to see some love for Appaloosa too.

  • 28 12-18-2008 at 2:17 am

    Glenn said...

    I reckon “Rachel Getting Married” is this year’s ensemble-nominee-without-a-best-picture-hope ala “Hairspray”, “The Station Agent” and “Hustle & Flow”.